I see it as they need to go 13-4 and see if 96 points is good enough. If not, on to next year with the kids already having put their stamp on the team. Only one bad contract left, I guess schlemko also, but you get the point.
96 points would give them an excellent chance to make it.
95-94 is ~roughly combined 50:50, with 95 probably giving them a 60% chance, 94 a 33% chance.
93 is a chance... but not a great one.
92 is very, very unlikely.
91 and under is basically impossible.
11-4-2 is the worst they can do from here on out I think (94pts) and have a semi-realistic shot.