Boston Bruins 2023 Off-Season CAP, Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk XI

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Gonzothe7thDman

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I think the common sentiment throughout the year was that Forbort was the PK and that we put up with his 5-on-5 play because he was so critical to that unit. But we saw when he went down to end the year, the PK actually improved without him.

So he wasn't this ace that many made him out to be. The justification for his value was evidenced to be greatly exaggerated when better options were given a chance in front of him.

I haven't looked it up in a bit but I am pretty sure in the 28 games without Forbort the Bruins PK was at like 86%. They went 25-3-0-

And with Forbort it was 88%. They went 40-9-0.

Thats the total season stats but I remember in certain stretches when Forbort was out the PK went up.

So I really think Forborts impact on the PK is way overblown.
 

NeelyDan

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I'm more okay with the overblown perspective on Forbort/PK - according to something called "statmuse" (I'm new at this nerd stuff) there was a 3 percent drop in PK effectiveness across the entirety of 2022-2023 without Forbort available.

So everyone's right! Let's celebrate with the news that Taylor Swift is coming to Toronto!
 

RiverbottomChuck

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3 years is a long way from "panic" moves.

I do love the "they haven't developed any top 6 centers for the team since Krejci and Bergeron became their top 6 centers 15 years ago" argument. :laugh:
I had something more snarky typed out but I’ll leave it at cry laugh emojis are probably the most cringe thing a grown man can do. Even still, they knew this day would come and they routinely sat on their hands because of how reliable Bergy and DK were. Saying they had 15 years of great centers so why would they prioritize the position isn’t the win you think it is. With the exception of Spooner, Koko, Griffith, and Donato who were never top 6 guys what bruins drafted C’s have had any minuscule amount of success since Bergy and krejci entered the league on the Bruins or other teams? I guess Freddy but it only seems he’s a center on paper not in position. Maybe it’s not the lack of amount of centers drafted but the quality of those centers or the bruins ability to develop them.
 

MarchysNoseKnows

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I'm more okay with the overblown perspective on Forbort/PK - according to something called "statmuse" (I'm new at this nerd stuff) there was a 3 percent drop in PK effectiveness across the entirety of 2022-2023 without Forbort available.

So everyone's right! Let's celebrate with the news that Taylor Swift is coming to Toronto!
NeelyDan using "advanced" stats...


rockyAGAIN.gif
 

KnightofBoston

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Mar 22, 2010
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From Oct 12 to Nov 1 with Forbort they were at 94.2%

From Nov 2 to Nov 28 they were 76.1% without him.

From Nov 29 to Mar 16 with him they were at 86% with him.

From mar 17 to start of playoffs they were 93.9% without him.

On which planet is that improved without him?

This post makes me feel depressed

Try graphing it, which shape does the line take on?

Short answer; the correlation is inconsistent

Whether that means you or gonzo are correct re Forbort would require more data to prove one way or another
 

goldnblack

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Jun 24, 2020
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Maybe - I was just taking a guess at what their career high totals were.

What are your predictions?

Truly I have no predictions. BUT if Zacha and Debrusk don't come in closer to 70 pts each (assuming healthy seasons), I'd be pretty disappointed. I get that it's a big jump for both, but the minutes (both ES and PP1) do warrant it. If Zacha spends most of the season with Pasta, and Debrusk with Marchy, they have some elite duos to hoover some cheap pts.

Debrusk in his contract year *should* be playing out of his mind. And I think Zacha's development arc now is ready for that big pt bump at age 26. This is prime time for him now (which could be a problem, but we'll see).
 

NDiesel

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This post makes me feel depressed

Try graphing it, which shape does the line take on?

Short answer; the correlation is inconsistent

Whether that means you or gonzo are correct re Forbort would require more data to prove one way or another
Gonzo originally said it was a false narrative, which is just plain incorrect.

Either way, the only time the PK was better without him was when Orlov was here to take his spot, they don't have an Orlov anymore.
 
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NeelyDan

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Mione134

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I'm more okay with the overblown perspective on Forbort/PK - according to something called "statmuse" (I'm new at this nerd stuff) there was a 3 percent drop in PK effectiveness across the entirety of 2022-2023 without Forbort available.

So everyone's right! Let's celebrate with the news that Taylor Swift is coming to Toronto!

You better take the GF or I'm booking a train and coming! :laugh:
 
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NDiesel

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wintersej

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Gonzo originally said it was a false narrative, which is just plain incorrect.

Either way, the only time the PK was better without him was when Orlov was here to take his spot, they don't have an Orlov anymore.

Valid point.

That November stretch he was out the PK was just horrendous.

But, it was the Lindholm/Carlo pairing that was so brutal. They each gave up 9 PP goals in those 13 games.

Forbort/Carlo have up 9 PP goals together all season.

Now, is Lindholm so horrendous? Or did they just not really know how to play together, yet.

So many different stories you can tell with numbers!
 
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NeelyDan

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Then again, that 3% would have dropped them from 1st to 4th or 5th overall, so don’t undervalue the weight of those percentage points

Holy shit stats are fun you guys should try this
 
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NDiesel

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Valid point.

That November stretch he was out the PK was just horrendous.

But, it was the Lindholm/Carlo pairing that was so brutal. They each gave up 9 PP goals in those 13 games.

Forbort/Carlo have up 9 PP goals together all season.

Now, is Lindholm so horrendous? Or did they just not really know how to play together, yet.

So many different stories you can tell with numbers!
For sure context is important. I wondered too if that stretch of 16 games at the end of the season where they were at 93.9% without him was due to the guys on the PK being more comfortable overall, where in November as you alluded to, perhaps they still needed some time to mesh.
 

NDiesel

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He is a expendable player. But he is not easily replacable. They don't have anyone in the organization who could replace his PK role
Yeah, if he's gone you're looking at Lindholm/Mac/Carlo playing more PK mins as your 4th guy is going to be one of Gryz/Shattenkirk/Zboril/Mitchell...not great.
 
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