2023 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

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MarkusNaslund19

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Dec 28, 2005
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sarcasm noted. But I have won awards in math, and my arguments have been about the difference the draft position makes on your odds. Which is the same reason why I win at poker. And I don't gamble, other than some time buying lottery tickets. I will never play against the house. I play poker for entertainment, and as I stated, for the stuff I have tracked, I win.

I have played hockey on and off for over 60 years. I am not a great player, but decent enough that I have played with ex-NHLers and not totally embarrassed myself (13 of them I think).

And I am obviously not an expert on the draft. Didn't claim to be. I have simply stated two facts. Overplaying your top players to win meaningless games that lower your draft position is stupid. And that there is a serious difference between having say a 9% chance of moving up in the draft vs the 3% chance we presently hold. (double those numbers for the fact that the lottery is a double tap).

I have played, watched, coached and reffed hockey for a long long time. I am getting old ... okay I am old. I have never once claimed that I am better at judging players or teams. I just think that the Canucks have done a lot of dumb things in their 53 years, and none were worse than Benning's reign. And I freely express my opinion on those things, which is sort of the point of HF boards.
Sarcasm received gracefully, I give credit.

I think we view things so differently in part because you have a math mind and I have a humanities mind (masters in counselling psychology).

So where you look at raw numbers and say, 'it was pointless to win games down the stretch', I look at group psychology, the importance of buy-in, the importance of Petey, Hughes, and Demko feeling their coach is behind them and giving them the opportunity to discover just how good they can be in this league.

Never forget that one and two years ago a lot of reactive fans on these very boards were calling for us to dump Petey and Hughes when they struggled.
Now it's generally accepted that they are superstars.
That doesn't happen in a vacuum and they needed to show themselves just how good they could be.

I was still cheering for good process/bad results over the last 4 months of the season, but we actually gained a lot in terms of our personnel, buy-in to the coach's program, and trade value in a bunch of our moveable assets.

Is it frustrating to have a season that feels like a 5th overall pick end with us picking 11th (most likely)? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean that there wasn't lots gained along the way.
 

PuckMunchkin

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Dec 13, 2006
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Sarcasm received gracefully, I give credit.

I think we view things so differently in part because you have a math mind and I have a humanities mind (masters in counselling psychology).

So where you look at raw numbers and say, 'it was pointless to win games down the stretch', I look at group psychology, the importance of buy-in, the importance of Petey, Hughes, and Demko feeling their coach is behind them and giving them the opportunity to discover just how good they can be in this league.

Never forget that one and two years ago a lot of reactive fans on these very boards were calling for us to dump Petey and Hughes when they struggled.
Now it's generally accepted that they are superstars.
That doesn't happen in a vacuum and they needed to show themselves just how good they could be.

I was still cheering for good process/bad results over the last 4 months of the season, but we actually gained a lot in terms of our personnel, buy-in to the coach's program, and trade value in a bunch of our moveable assets.

Is it frustrating to have a season that feels like a 5th overall pick end with us picking 11th (most likely)? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean that there wasn't lots gained along the way.
I think it would be best to have both. You can't just always think how you would feel as a player if this or that happened to your team. Yes. They can get pissed off for a while. If the result is a competitive team next year. Or at least an obvious runway to contention from here on out, you think they will give a hoot if we held Demko out for 5 more games and took PK time away from Petey and Hughes?

Also. Players these days are not in the dark or quite honestly dumb as they used to be. They won't be duped by late season surges in meaningless games.

Obviously they wanna win every single game and will be annoyed if you take that away with out an alibi. We got that alibi this year with Demko's injury and OEL & Myers game cratering and Miller forgetting how to play hockey for 50 games etc. But we failed to use that alibi for the long term interest of the team.

As far as contention windows go, I think we are 1 more Pettersson / Hughes level piece away from having the core needed, and that is assuming we had the other things in the organization in order, which we dont.
 
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ChilliBilly

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Sarcasm received gracefully, I give credit.

I think we view things so differently in part because you have a math mind and I have a humanities mind (masters in counselling psychology).

So where you look at raw numbers and say, 'it was pointless to win games down the stretch', I look at group psychology, the importance of buy-in, the importance of Petey, Hughes, and Demko feeling their coach is behind them and giving them the opportunity to discover just how good they can be in this league.

Never forget that one and two years ago a lot of reactive fans on these very boards were calling for us to dump Petey and Hughes when they struggled.
Now it's generally accepted that they are superstars.
That doesn't happen in a vacuum and they needed to show themselves just how good they could be.

I was still cheering for good process/bad results over the last 4 months of the season, but we actually gained a lot in terms of our personnel, buy-in to the coach's program, and trade value in a bunch of our moveable assets.

Is it frustrating to have a season that feels like a 5th overall pick end with us picking 11th (most likely)? Absolutely, but that doesn't mean that there wasn't lots gained along the way.
I agree that the team seems more cohesive, and is playing better. and that that is important. However, just like when McDavid was being drafted, we have a likely generational player available this year. Most years I would agree that working on the team chemistry would be more important than draft position, but this year is an exceptional draft. There is also big difference between drafting 1lth, and 5th this year. Many other years there would not be. Heck, lasts years projected 1st OA went 4th, and none of the players in last years draft did anything much this year.

The other major issue I have had this year is the trade for Hronek. Yes, he is going to be valuable it seems, but at one point it looked like we might get a top 5 pick and 12 -15, and an early 2nd. The sting drops away a tad now that it looks like the NYI pick we traded is very likely to be in the 20's. But Hronek is going to want to get paid next year, just like Horvat this year did. We need to shed a ton of salary, and people are talking about using our 1st round pick to shed salary. This is a disaster for a non-contending team.
 
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racerjoe

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I agree that the team seems more cohesive, and is playing better. and that that is important. However, just like when McDavid was being drafted, we have a likely generational player available this year. Most years I would agree that working on the team chemistry would be more important than draft position, but this year is an exceptional draft. There is also big difference between drafting 1lth, and 5th this year. Many other years there would not be. Heck, lasts years projected 1st OA went 4th, and none of the players in last years draft did anything much this year.

The other major issue I have had this year is the trade for Hronek. Yes, he is going to be valuable it seems, but at one point it looked like we might get a top 5 pick and 12 -15, and an early 2nd. The sting drops away a tad now that it looks like the NYI pick we traded is very likely to be in the 20's. But Hronek is going to want to get paid next year, just like Horvat this year did. We need to shed a ton of salary, and people are talking about using our 1st round pick to shed salary. This is a disaster for a non-contending team.

First we were never going to be as low as 5th. Even when we were fifth it was not sustainable for us. We just were not that bad.

So the first question to ask is what is the value of the pick we could have realistically picked, and where we finished. From everything I have seen 9th is where we were projected. This is from when we were fifth. Lots of sites like Tankathon projected us to finish 9th.

So what is the Value of a 9th pick vs 11th? What is the value of the team learning the new system? What is the value of team showing Petey it will put him in a position to succeed? What is the value of having Brock play better? Garland? Improved defense? Demko playing better? Is that worth the 3% difference in odds?
 

PuckMunchkin

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Dec 13, 2006
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First we were never going to be as low as 5th. Even when we were fifth it was not sustainable for us. We just were not that bad.

Very likely not 5th. Unless they really committed to it, but they took a different route.
So the first question to ask is what is the value of the pick we could have realistically picked, and where we finished. From everything I have seen 9th is where we were projected. This is from when we were fifth. Lots of sites like Tankathon projected us to finish 9th.
We could have finished lower than 8th easily and 7th was in reach too with some effort.

So what is the Value of a 9th pick vs 11th? What is the value of the team learning the new system? What is the value of team showing Petey it will put him in a position to succeed? What is the value of having Brock play better? Garland? Improved defense? Demko playing better? Is that worth the 3% difference in odds?
They can learn the new system im practices without riding Hughes and Petey and Demko.

I doubt EP is falling for this trick that he is now in position to succeed. He knows the team is miles away from contending.

Its not just about odds. Its also about getting to pick earlier even if you dont win and not falling as low if someone behind you wins in the lotter.
 
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racerjoe

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We could have finished lower than 8th easily and 7th was in reach too with some effort.

Just because we held that position at some point doesn't make it likely. Not when we play the Ducks and the other teams play much harder competition.

I doubt EP is falling for this trick that he is now in position to succeed. He knows the team is miles away from contending.

What about the team putting him in a position to score 100pts?

Also sounds like it has convinced at least some of the players as they talked in the exit interviews about how this felt different than last year.

Its not just about odds. Its also about getting to pick earlier even if you dont win and not falling as low if someone behind you wins in the lotter.

Again... so what is the difference in that? No one is saying it isn't about a higher pick. The argument is that worth what the team did gain?
 

PuckMunchkin

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Just because we held that position at some point doesn't make it likely. Not when we play the Ducks and the other teams play much harder competition.
We disagree.

What about the team putting him in a position to score 100pts?
You can let him play the PP and 5on5 and take him off of PK or lower his PK minutes heavily. Dont you agree?

Also sounds like it has convinced at least some of the players as they talked in the exit interviews about how this felt different than last year.
This time its different, again.
Again... so what is the difference in that? No one is saying it isn't about a higher pick. The argument is that worth what the team did gain?
I don't buy that what they accomplished by winning is worth much at all. Here we disagree.

So the pick value is real. Picking 7th vs 11th is obviously a big deal. Right? We agree?
 

Izzy Goodenough

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With their meaningless late season surge again this year, the chances are now greater that the Canucks drop to 12th than the cumulative chances for the Canucks to move to 1st and 2nd.

So who is rated 12th?

 
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racerjoe

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We disagree.


You can let him play the PP and 5on5 and take him off of PK or lower his PK minutes heavily. Dont you agree?


This time its different, again.

I don't buy that what they accomplished by winning is worth much at all. Here we disagree.

So the pick value is real. Picking 7th vs 11th is obviously a big deal. Right? We agree?

If you don't buy reality, I can't really help you.
 
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strattonius

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Jul 4, 2011
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With their meaningless late season surge again this year, the chances are now greater that the Canucks drop to 12th than the cumulative chances for the Canucks to move to 1st and 2nd.

So who is rated 12th?


Still an 80% chance we stay at 11. Looking at who is rated 12th is a pointless endeavor unless you actually believe every organizations list from 1-15 is exactly the same.
 

racerjoe

Registered User
Jun 3, 2012
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No sorry.

You don't get to decide the reality.

We can disagree on what could or should have happened. But you don't get to dictate what is true.
You do realize reality is what happened right?

Like if we did what you said we are not dropping that much. Its just reality. Like 3 weeks before the season ended or so I had this same conversation with someone and linked one of the projects that had us finishing 9th, with 83 points. We finished 11th with 83 points, so I would say its a pretty good projection.

How many games would it have cost us to do what you said? Where would that have realistically put us in the standings? Even the last few games that team didn't play that well and still won because the other teams were just so bad. Reality is what happened.
 

Gstank

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Apr 27, 2015
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Wood and Ritchie are having good U18s I wonder if that will affect their draft stock at all. I have them at the top of the 17/18-25 range FWIW
 

Izzy Goodenough

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Oct 11, 2020
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Still an 80% chance we stay at 11. Looking at who is rated 12th is a pointless endeavor unless you actually believe every organizations list from 1-15 is exactly the same.
It is pointless if you believe the lottery to be fair I suppose.

" Five years ago, the Edmonton Oilers struck it rich at the draft lottery — again.

Deputy commissioner Bill Daly held up their logo, signalling their unofficial victory in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes and prompting an unforgettably awkward and widely overanalyzed reaction from the soon-to-be NHL superstar.

The Oilers had just an 11.5 per cent chance of going home with the top pick in the 2015 NHL Draft, their fourth No. 1 selection in the previous six years (2015, 2012, 2011 and 2010).

Sometimes the ping-pong balls go your way. But sometimes they don’t."


FROM: Mike Shulman@ByMikeShulman

Biggest winners and losers in NHL Draft Lottery history​


Five years ago, the Edmonton Oilers struck it rich at the draft lottery — again.

Deputy commissioner Bill Daly held up their logo, signalling their unofficial victory in the Connor McDavid sweepstakes and prompting an unforgettably awkward and widely overanalyzed reaction from the soon-to-be NHL superstar.



The Oilers had just an 11.5 per cent chance of going home with the top pick in the 2015 NHL Draft, their fourth No. 1 selection in the previous six years (2015, 2012, 2011 and 2010).

Sometimes the ping-pong balls go your way.

But sometimes they don’t.

The Buffalo Sabres’ lottery-best odds resulted in the No. 2 pick and a chance to grab Jack Eichel, who’s not a bad consolation prize but certainly isn’t McDavid.

Comb through the past of the event, which dates back to 1995, and there are plenty of teams who were favoured or shunned by chance.

Ahead of the first phase of the NHL’s modified draft lottery Friday, we took a look at the biggest winners and losers in its history.

WINNERS​

Edmonton Oilers — 2015

Back to the 2015 lottery, I don’t think it can be overstated how big of a win it was for the Oilers organization — even if they’ve made just one post-season appearance since drafting McDavid, though they’ll make another should the NHL return from its pandemic pause.


By jumping to the top spot, with the third-best odds, Edmonton secured a franchise-defining player.

During his time in the NHL, the 23-year-old pivot leads the league in Goals Above Replacement, according to Evolving Hockey (108.5), well ahead of Mark Stone at No. 2 (96.2), points (469 in 351 games) and owns a Hart Trophy and two Ted Lindsay Awards. He’s achieved all this despite suffering a career-threatening injury in his left knee that ended his 2018-19 campaign, and a broken clavicle in his rookie season.

The Oilers’ win was the Sabres’ loss — no doubt about it. The sheer drop off from McDavid to Eichel is debatably enough to qualify the Sabres as one of the biggest lottery losers in history.


Should NHL draft lottery be weighted more for bottom teams?

Eichel is a star, and was mounting a dark horse bid for the Hart this season, but McDavid has vastly outproduced him since joining the league. Eichel’s GAR is a tad more than half that of McDavid’s (56.8) and he is 24th in total scoring over that span with 337 points in 354 games.

Great numbers, but they don’t touch McDavid’s.

Pittsburgh Penguins — 2005

The Penguins were certainly due for some luck, and they got it at likely the strangest draft lottery in history.

Amid struggles on and off the ice, the Penguins were thrown a lifesaver in the form of the No. 1 pick in the 2005 NHL Draft.


Coming out of a lockout that wiped out the entire 2004-05 season, the NHL had no standings to use for the lottery and opted to assign teams into three groups based on playoff appearances in the previous three seasons and how many first overall picks a team had in the past four drafts.

Based on the system, the Penguins were one of four clubs to get the maximum three lottery balls (out of 48 total), while 10 had two and 16 had one.

Despite having among the best odds to win, that amounted to a just 6.25 per cent chance as each team had a shot at Sidney Crosby — the most highly coveted prospect in the game since Mario Lemieux.

But everything came up Millhouse for the Penguins on July 22, 2005.

Pittsburgh landed the No. 1 pick, paving the way for its third, fourth and fifth Stanley Cup wins (2008–09, 2015–16, 2016–17) led by Crosby, who has been unquestionably the greatest player of his generation.

Since 2005, Crosby’s 1263 points in 984 games are second to only Alex Ovechkin’s 1278 in 1152, even though much of his prime was hampered by injuries. With two Art Ross Trophies, two Harts, three Ted Lindsays, two Richard Trophies and two Conn Smythes, he’s by far the most accomplished selection in a rather weak ’05 draft, which also produced Bobby Ryan (No. 2), Carey Price (No. 5), Anze Kopitar (No. 11) and Kris Letang (No. 62).

Chicago Blackhawks — 2007
The Blackhawks had a franchise-defining win a few years before earning their first Stanley Cup since 1961, but it didn’t come on the ice. With the fifth-best odds to end up with the top pick, Chicago leaped up the draft board and the right to pick Patrick Kane, who became one of the most prolific scorers of his time.

This year ties directly to one of the biggest losers in NHL Draft Lottery history as well, so a little more on this one below.

Bonus — Taylor Hall

The self-proclaimed “lottery-ball specialist” has been on five teams that have won the top prize. Twice with the New Jersey Devils (Hischier, 2017 and Jack Hughes, 2019) and three times with the Oilers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 2011, Nail Yakupov, 2012, and McDavid, 2015), in addition to being the No. 1 overall pick himself by Edmonton in 2010.

Hall is confident his record will stand — never tell him the odds.

Honourable mentions: The Colorado Avalanche going from second to first and snagging Nathan MacKinnon in the 2013 NHL Draft. The Winnipeg Jets jumping from sixth to second to land Finnish sniper Patrik Laine in 2016.


Connor McDavid surprises Cole Perfetti to offer advice ahead of NHL Draft


LOSERS​

Philadelphia Flyers — 2007

It’s hard to imagine a tougher year for the Flyers.


Eight games into the 2006-07 season, with the team off to a 1-6-1 start, general manager Bobby Clarke resigned and head coach Ken Hitchcock was fired. But the shakeup made no difference as the Flyers finished 22–48–12, giving them the most losses in franchise history and the NHL mark for the biggest one-year drop in standings from 101 points to 56.

And how were they rewarded for compiling the league’s worst record?

By dropping to the No. 2 spot in the draft lottery and missing out on one of the greatest American hockey players of all time — Patrick Kane.

The Chicago Blackhawks, meanwhile, catapulted up to the first choice — despite having the fifth-best chances at 8.1 per cent — and paired Kane with Jonathan Toews to form the core of a modern dynasty that won three Cups in six years. It’s one of the biggest lottery wins in history, from the other side of the picture.

The Flyers ended up taking James van Riemsdyk, a fine player in his own right. But he’s not the owner of an Art Ross, Calder, Ted Lindsay, Hart and Conn Smythe award, nor is he the third-most prolific point-getter since entering the league in 2007-08.

As an added twist of the knife three years later, it was Kane who silenced the Flyers’ crowd as he scored the Blackhawks’ Stanley Cup-winning, OT goal in the 2010 Final.


New York Islanders — 2001

A year after surging from fifth to first at the lottery and using the top pick to take goalie Rick DiPietro over the likes of Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik, the Islanders, and GM Mike Milbury, did themselves one better.


Having finished last in the regular-season standings with 52 points, the Islanders had the best shot at the top pick (25 per cent) and a chance to select a game-changer in Ilya Kovalchuk.

But the hockey gods chose to favour the Atlanta Thrashers (14.2 per cent odds) with No. 1 and give the Islanders the second choice. The Thrashers seized the chance to pair Kovalchuk with a fellow sniper in Heatley.

That stung but another future star in Jason Spezza was left for the taking.

It was the Islanders’ corresponding move that truly sealed their status as losers that summer. In what may be one of the worst trades in NHL history, New York sent No. 2, Zdeno Chara and Bill Muckalt to the Senators for Alexei Yashin. The Islanders promptly signed the Russian centreman to a gargantuan 10-year, $87.5-million contract that haunted the team’s books through 2014-15 following a 2007 buyout.

Would the Islanders have made the same trade had they won the top pick? We may never know. But what is clear is that Yashin failed to carry New York past the first round of the playoffs, while Kovalchuk, Spezza and Chara shined elsewhere.


Draisaitl reflects on his development, gives advice to top German draft prospect.


Bonus — Pittsburgh Penguins (the fans) — 2004

Ok, before I get dragged in the comments, I’m aware the Penguins did pretty well for themselves at the 2004 lottery by coming away with Evgeni Malkin second overall.

But there’s no denying the Capitals — who finished third from the bottom — winning the lottery over the last-placed Penguins may have deprived fans of an opportunity to watch one of the greatest playmakers in NHL history line up alongside arguably the greatest goal scorers in NHL history. It’s like something out of an NHL 20 fantasy draft.


While Pittsburgh got Malkin — a future Hall of Famer who’s no second-fiddle to Crosby and was essential to the team’s most recent three Cups — Ovechkin, the top pick, is the league’s leading point-producer since the ’04-05 lockout and by far its most prolific goalscorer (he leads Crosby 706 to 462 in that category).

Ovechkin’s also got his name on nine Richard Trophies, three Ted Lindsays, three Harts, an Art Ross, a Conn Smythe and a Calder. Malkin, meanwhile, has 1076 points in 907 games since entering the league a year later — placing him fourth in points since the ’04-05 lockout — and is the owner of two Art Ross Trophies, a Hart, a Ted Lindsay, a Smythe and a Calder.

The Penguins weren’t really losers, neither were the fans who’ve been privileged to watch Geno and Sid the Kid tear it up in Pittsburgh. But c’mon, even the most diehard Penguins fans have to admit they would’ve loved to have seen what Ovechkin could’ve accomplished on Crosby’s flank.

Dishonourable mentions: The last-placed Atlanta Thrashers missing out on Rick Nash and picking oft-injured goalie Kari Lehtonen at No. 2 in the 2002 draft.


 
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PuckMunchkin

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Dec 13, 2006
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You do realize reality is what happened right?

Like if we did what you said we are not dropping that much. Its just reality.

Its your opinion.

Like 3 weeks before the season ended or so I had this same conversation with someone and linked one of the projects that had us finishing 9th, with 83 points. We finished 11th with 83 points, so I would say its a pretty good projection.

How many games would it have cost us to do what you said? Where would that have realistically put us in the standings? Even the last few games that team didn't play that well and still won because the other teams were just so bad. Reality is what happened.
Did you forget we are 2 regulation losses from 8th? We can get to that by just doing simple deployment changes.

Sell Kuzmenko at the trade deadline and give Demko ~4 less starts and we are in 7th territory.

What a weird response by you yet again.

Youve really dedicated your self to this narrative of yours (and ~5 other posters) here havent you?
 

bandwagonesque

I eat Kraft Dinner and I vote
Mar 5, 2014
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Its your opinion.


Did you forget we are 2 regulation losses from 8th? We can get to that by just doing simple deployment changes.

Sell Kuzmenko at the trade deadline and give Demko ~4 less starts and we are in 7th territory.

What a weird response by you yet again.

Youve really dedicated your self to this narrative of yours (and ~5 other posters) here havent you?
It would have been unprecedented to trade a popular star forward a couple of weeks after signing him to an extension, and his current value with an extension that takes up one year of his UFA years is far higher than it would have been without one at the deadline.

It might be possible to sign a player to an extension than immediately trade them in some video games, I guess. I don't play video games and wouldn't know.
 
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alternate

Win the week!
Jun 9, 2006
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Its your opinion.


Did you forget we are 2 regulation losses from 8th? We can get to that by just doing simple deployment changes.

Sell Kuzmenko at the trade deadline and give Demko ~4 less starts and we are in 7th territory.

What a weird response by you yet again.

Youve really dedicated your self to this narrative of yours (and ~5 other posters) here havent you?

Trade Kuz for a 2nd just to maybe go from 11th to 8th? Like what is that even.

I get it, you're a bigger fan of the draft than of the Canucks. There's a group of posters on here that absolutely care more about draft day than what happens on the ice. And that's fine, fan any way you want. But trading Kuz was always a ridiculous idea, as long as he could be re-signed which he clearly could be.

We gave Delia 2 of the final 3 starts. We had 2 NCAA UFA signings playing regular minutes on the back end. Shit, Tocchet even put Miller with EP, leaving us with absolutely no depth at C for our last few games.

Your ideas are just fantasy land. "Just trade Kuzmenko so we can finish 3 spots lower." Just absurd.
 

JohnHodgson

Registered User
May 6, 2009
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There is absolutely a drop off after nine, honestly I think there is even a little tier between eight and nine as well.

I don't want to say you're wrong... because you're certainly entitled to your own opinion.

But there's literally no professional scouts saying this at all.

Curious if you think this is still the case.

Looks like there are 10-13 prospects in about the same range after the top 4 talents.
 

Icebreakers

Registered User
Apr 29, 2011
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Jeez this USA u18 team is just disgusting.

The amount of highlight reel plays and talent on that team. It's like they are toying with everyone. Chemistry also +100.
 

Luck 6

\\_______
Oct 17, 2008
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I’m kind of fine with whatever happens… To be honest, our team isn’t bad enough to be drafting top 10… I know we’d all like that, but hey, that’s clearly the reality as the results have indicated that the past two seasons.

I honestly wouldn’t even hate trading this pick… If it brings us a young, NHL player, who is ready to contribute now as a core piece, then why not? We’ve selected our direction, we might as well buy in.
 
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