Speculation: 2023/24 Defence

[Big Muddy]

I can’t see Parayko moving and if he did he has a full NTC, can’t see him waiving for us.

I doubt Carlo is moved. Boston is going for it so I imagine they will run a 20 man roster once Forbert is back.

Unless Blues are blowing it up, I have a hard time understanding why they'd trade Parayko. And based on Nov. 1 interview with GM Doug Armstrong, he sure didn't sound like a GM that was planning to blow it up. If they are dealing with cap issues next year, which is certainly possible, they can solve those issues many different ways and the solutions do not need to involve moving Parayko.

Some of the trade proposals mentioned here just seem to be based on: "Hey that guy is a good defender, so let's get him" with very little analysis of what the other team is doing or needs. I get it, we are doing poorly and having a bad season and hoping for solutions and salvation, but the solutions will need to deal in the real world.

 

[Big Muddy]

Agree
That's why I mentioned Hronek last week
Because It's Cat hometown, DET has cap space and they could move Hronek because of Seideras #1 its less of a blow, and both Cat and Hronek are next year RFAs
DET might not be willing of course
Could sweeten the deal with Jarventie or Boucher or someone

Detroit is definitely not willing.

25 year old 23 minute a night RD who can put up 45-55+ points.

Will probably cost 4 million less than DBC

I don't understand why Detroit would trade Hronek just because they have Seider. I think having more than one strong defender is an actual strong preference or objective of teams, versus we've got one good guy so let's get rid of the 2nd.

Hronek is a good defender, on a good contract, and is a RD, so that is almost always the type of player that teams want to keep versus unload. And, even though no more than what has already been mentioned is necessary, Debrincat's 1 year and a bit, $9 m contract plus Jarventie/Boucher isn't strong enough motivation to give them pause to consider a trade like this imho.

 

[Micklebot]

The problem is other teams won't. Kevin Fiala was traded for Brock Faber. That's the type of return you're getting for DBC. Prospects, picks and filler.

You're not getting an established top 4 defenseman.

Fiala got Faber and 19th OA, that's a pretty big second piece to completely omit, and that's likely because the wild wanted futures not because they couldn't get established players. Not every team is looking to add a big contract, some are trying to avoid it. I mean, the inverse of your argument is the penguins gave up an established top 4 RHD for a prospect and a 3rd, unless you think DeBrincat has less value than Ty Smith there's a bit of a disconnect.

Now the problem might be that teams looking to move an establish top 4 D are often not the same teams as those looking to add an established top 6 winger, so it might just be a case of using the returns on one trade to fund another.

 

[Micklebot]

I can’t see Parayko moving and if he did he has a full NTC, can’t see him waiving for us.

I doubt Carlo is moved. Boston is going for it so I imagine they will run a 20 man roster once Forbert is back.

Sure, that's a completely different argument though. I couldn't see Chi moving DeBrincat, or the Pens moving Marino until events unfolded and they happened.

Boston might lose a top 6 forward to injury and feel they can afford to deal Carlo off to shore up their roster for a run, Parayko is probably a long shot, no doubt there.

 

[Alex1234]

I don't understand why Detroit would trade Hronek just because they have Seider. I think having more than one strong defender is an actual strong preference or objective of teams, versus we've got one good guy so let's get rid of the 2nd.

Hronek is a good defender, on a good contract, and is a RD, so that is almost always the type of player that teams want to keep versus unload. And, even though no more than what has already been mentioned is necessary, Debrincat's 1 year and a bit, $9 m contract plus Jarventie/Boucher isn't strong enough motivation to give them pause to consider a trade like this imho.

Its easy to find all the negative about a trade
I understand its not ideal
But we need a RHD
Who you think we can get with a 40G scorer?
David Savardlol?
What do you propose?
Paying ADBC 9M next year and losing him to FA the year after lol?

Detroit is definitely not willing.

25 year old 23 minute a night RD who can put up 45-55+ points.

Will probably cost 4 million less than DBC

What is your solution then?

 

[BondraTime]

Its easy to find all the negative about a trade
I understand its not ideal
But we need a RHD
Who you think we can get with a 40G scorer?
David Savardlol?
What do you propose?
Paying ADBC 9M next year and losing him to FA the year after lol?


What is your solution then?

I don’t have a solution.

We’re not going to be getting a young top 4 D for Debrincat. We’ll get a deal like Stones, but probably a bit less.

 

[Alex1234]

I don’t have a solution.

We’re not going to be getting a young top 4 D for Debrincat. We’ll get a deal like Stones, but probably a bit less.

So a 50G scorer returns a bit more then Branstrom .and 60 G scorer a top4 D?
Good lord we need to sign Zub.
Even at 7M its a deal per the market nowadays wow

 

[Hale The Villain]

If there's a deal to be made with Detroit it is likely going to be multiple young NHL forwards coming back + a 1st.

They have way too many forwards and only a couple top 4 D. Don't think Hronek would be available.

 

[Micklebot]

I don’t have a solution.

We’re not going to be getting a young top 4 D for Debrincat. We’ll get a deal like Stones, but probably a bit less.

It's kind of funny, Marino certainly went for less value than DeBrincat.

NYR traded Skjei for less value than DeBrincat

Not sure if Jokiharju counts as a top 4, I'd say he was borderline, he went for way less.

Obviously Toews went for less.

Graves too,

I think the issue is more that teams who want DeBrincat aren't the ones selling top 4 D, with some rare exceptions.

 

[GCK]

Sure, that's a completely different argument though. I couldn't see Chi moving DeBrincat, or the Pens moving Marino until events unfolded and they happened.

Boston might lose a top 6 forward to injury and feel they can afford to deal Carlo off to shore up their roster for a run, Parayko is probably a long shot, no doubt there.

Pens wanted to move Petterson but they could find a taker without taking salary back so they had to move Marino.

 

[Big Muddy]

Its easy to find all the negative about a trade
I understand its not ideal
But we need a RHD
Who you think we can get with a 40G scorer?
David Savardlol?
What do you propose?
Paying ADBC 9M next year and losing him to FA the year after lol?


What is your solution then?

I've made posts about looking at Free Agency before. I copied one of them below (italicized text). There was also the CapFriendly page that I attached.

"FWIW, here's a list of the Free Agent defensemen for next year.

If I sorted on RD (or LD/RD) and TOI greater than 20 minutes, here is what I "noted":

• Klingberg
• Dunn
• Clifton
• Jensen
• Dumba
• Gudas
• Severson

At least these guys are available in theory."

Matt Roy is another option because LAK are one of the few teams with multiple RDs. But, the Kings are 7th overall in goals scored, so no idea if they have much interest.

Its easy to find all the negative about a trade
I understand its not ideal
But we need a RHD
Who you think we can get with a 40G scorer?
David Savardlol?
What do you propose?
Paying ADBC 9M next year and losing him to FA the year after lol?


What is your solution then?

Ooops. I seem to have duplicated your post somehow. I already posted suggestions that I have made in the past. It doesn't have to be a trade.

I never mentioned David Savard before, so not sure why that name was mentioned.

No, I would want to lose Debrincat to free agency next year. I've mentioned that several times and been pretty clear about that. In my mind, the big market for Debrincat is going to be for a contender that is thinking about a rental which is pretty much what Debrincat is. You might get a team that is barely in or out of wild card slot for the same reasons. Hence, your most likely to get a futures oriented type return i.e., picks and prospects. We're much less likely to get a good RD imho.

I think it's better to figure out which players are likely to be available first and considering what the potential trading partners objectives are first. Mea culpa.

 

[Micklebot]

Pens wanted to move Petterson but they could find a taker without taking salary back so they had to move Marino.

Again, they decided to move a guy most wouldn't have expected a year ago, that's my point.

 

[Alex1234]

I've made posts about looking at Free Agency before. I copied it below (italicized text). There was also the CapFriendly page that I attached.

"FWIW, here's a list of the Free Agent defensemen for next year.

If I sorted on RD (or LD/RD) and TOI greater than 20 minutes, here is what I "noted":

• Klingberg
• Dunn
• Clifton
• Jensen
• Dumba
• Gudas
• Severson

At least these guys are available in theory."

Matt Roy is another option because LAK are one of the few teams with multiple RDs. But, the Kings are 7th overall in goals scored, so no idea if they have much interest.

Ooops. I seem to have duplicated your post somehow. I already posted suggestions that I have made in the past. It doesn't have to be a trade.

I never mentioned David Savard before, so not sure why that name was mentioned.

No, I would want to lose Debrincat to free agency next year. I've mentioned that several times and been pretty clear about that. In my mind, the big market for Debrincat is going to be for a contender that is thinking about a rental which is pretty much what Debrincat is. You might get a team that is barely in or out of wild card slot for the same reasons. Hence, your most likely to get a futures oriented type return i.e., picks and prospects. We're much less likely to get a good RD imho.

I think it's better to figure out which players are likely to be available first and considering what the potential trading partners objectives are first. Mea culpa.

Problem is I dont think any of these UFAs want to play for the 2nd worst team in the league with Canada taxes and weather (see Klingberg last season)

 

[Big Muddy]

Problem is I dont think any of these UFAs want to play for the 2nd worst team in the league with Canada taxes and weather (see Klingberg last season)

We will have a new owner, hopefully more money than before, and a better story to tell than we did before. You can work around this a bit by offering a bit more money and term. Severson is one defender I've mentioned before. He is playing less minutes and has a reduced role this year versus previous years and didn't sound happy about it based on interviews I've heard. Perhaps he would like to come to play on our 2nd pair and get more minutes.

The other thing is the timeline and expectations. I wasn't really buying the idea that the rebuild was over. Not with the lack of good defensemen. But, the trade for Debrincat was a short term move likely to boost attendance in the short term to help get an optimal sale done. It might not have been the best long term strategy. So, we could still acquire some of the pieces we need through the draft especially when we will have a very deep draft and hopefully a very high 1st overall pick this year. That won't placate some who want things done faster no doubt. I just don't know that faster is super realistic.

 

[Micklebot]

We will have a new owner, hopefully more money than before, and a better story to tell than we did before. You can work around this a bit by offering a bit more money and term. Severson is one defender I've mentioned before. He is playing less minutes and has a reduced role this year versus previous years and didn't sound happy about if based on interviews I've heard. Perhaps he would like to come to play on our 2nd pair and get more minutes.

I think Severson would be a pretty good option, I just don't know how much he'll cost. I imagine he's pissed going into a contract relegated to the third pair and drop in PP TOI.

 

[Big Muddy]

I think Severson would be a pretty good option, I just don't know how much he'll cost. I imagine he's pissed going into a contract relegated to the third pair and drop in PP TOI.

He's paid about $4.16 million now. He might not be that expensive because of this year pushing him down a bit. I don't know though and just guessing pretty much.

 

[Alex1234]

We will have a new owner, hopefully more money than before, and a better story to tell than we did before. You can work around this a bit by offering a bit more money and term. Severson is one defender I've mentioned before. He is playing less minutes and has a reduced role this year versus previous years and didn't sound happy about it based on interviews I've heard. Perhaps he would like to come to play on our 2nd pair and get more minutes.

The other thing is the timeline and expectations. I wasn't really buying the idea that the rebuild was over. Not with the lack of good defensemen. But, the trade for Debrincat was a short term move likely to boost attendance in the short term to help get an optimal sale done. It might not have been the best long term strategy. So, we could still acquire some of the pieces we need through the draft especially when we will have a very deep draft and hopefully a very high 1st overall pick this year. That won't placate some who want things done faster no doubt. I just don't know that faster is super realistic.

Agree but if we wait for draft helpthat means no Giroux no Cat in 2-3 years
And we find Stu still raw after 152 games
Imagine those draft helpers after 10-50 games
Wont find some Sanderson every draft you know
So the offense will take a dip as we bolster the D

Never ending

 

[GCK]

I think Severson would be a pretty good option, I just don't know how much he'll cost. I imagine he's pissed going into a contract relegated to the third pair and drop in PP TOI.

Severson will likely get 6.5-7M for 7 years

 

[Micklebot]

Severson will likely get 6.5-7M for 7 years

Yeah, idk, maybe. What makes you think he gets more than Weegar?

 

[Big Muddy]

Severson will likely get 6.5-7M for 7 years

We'll see. Trying to think of comparable. Manson $4.5, Toews $4.1. Schultz $3 m (?), Ruuta $2.75, Cernak $5.2, Letang $6.1, Weegar $6.25

 

[GCK]

Yeah, idk, maybe. What makes you think he gets more than Weegar?

Weeger got 50M over 8 years and never hit UFA, I think Severson gets mid 40s on a 7 year deal since he’s likely to get to UFA.

 

[HSF]

the easy solution is trading Greig for a RD or a LD (Chychrun) and play him on the right side

Greig will find it hard to crack the top 6 in the next 2 years here outside of injury

Also get Formenton signed

 

[Big Muddy]

1. Agree but if we wait for draft helpthat means no Giroux no Cat in 2-3 years
And we find Stu still raw after 152 games
Imagine those draft helpers after 10-50 games
2. Wont find some Sanderson every draft you know
3. So the offense will take a dip as we bolster the D

4. Never ending

1. Brady, Sanderson & Stutzle were all high 1st round picks and it didn't take them 3 years or whatever to get inserted into the lineup as contributing NHL regulars.. If we draft very high in the first round again in a deep draft, then the same thing can happen again.

2. Re: "another Sanderson" - Would also disagree in that there should be some really good talent in the top of this year's draft. Might not be exactly a Sanderson but could find some talent that helps us.

3. The goal differential could be much better and we win more games. If our defense is making better plays and make better passes so that we can exit our zone, we could score more as well.

4. Possibly, but it depends on your definition of "never ending". It is what is at this point. We rushed it this year, made the splash and then what happened? We could end up trading Debrincat to a contender, and end up getting "futures" anyhow.

 

[CorrectOpinion]

So with everyone healthy right now is the idea that Sandy and Hamonic take the absolute hardest matchups and Chabby and Zub get more time with our top lines?

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

So with everyone healthy right now is the idea that Sandy and Hamonic take the absolute hardest matchups and Chabby and Zub get more time with our top lines?

Recipe for disaster as Hamonic is clearly not a bonafide top 4 D, let alone a guy who's ready to be matched up with hardest competition while providing support for a 20 year old Sanderson.

If we get a top 4 D, this season is still very, very much salvageable. If not, expect to pick 13.