Speculation: 2023/24 Defence

[BondraTime]

I know everything that comes to Ottawa turns into crap but already?


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How much more than 7th OA + 39th OA + 3rd is Andersson worth?

And that was DeBrincat value at its lowest, in a buyer's market

By the way, the time of that trade is after this season so it's 3 seasons then UFA for The Rasmus.

100% would have traded that package for Anderson rather than Debrincat, not even remotely close.

Those advanced stats blocks mean very, very, very little to me.

Sure, that’s great. 3 years of Anderson is 10x better what we will be receiving for him when/if we move him. Think of the Stone return, with Stone being the more sought after guy.

Already have Batherson, Norris, Stutzle, Giroux, Tkachuk up front. Getting Debrincat signed long term will cripple the cap. Have nothing on the right side D, and nothing coming in. A 25 minute a night top pair RD on a league wide bargain contract is much more valuable than a winger.

 

[Xspyrit]

100% would have traded that package for Anderson rather than Debrincat, not even remotely close.

Those advanced stats blocks mean very, very, very little to me.

Sure, that’s great. 3 years of Anderson is 10x better what we will be receiving for him when/if we move him.

Already have Batherson, Norris, Stutzle, Giroux, Tkachuk up front. Getting Debrincat signed long term will cripple the cap. Have nothing on the right side D, and nothing coming in. A 25 minute a night top pair RD on a league wide bargain contract is much more valuable than a winger.

Are we now talking about what Dorion does and doesn't? I mean, you know my opinion on his work... it's pretty well known

Sure the play was to trade that pick for a RHD, but it looks like Dorion never makes "all the right moves"

Sure we might not get a great return on DeBrincat after "we damage him even more" but again, that's all current Senators-related arguments, That ADB-Andersson swap was liked in general by Flames fans. It's an hypothetical scenario but if DeBrincat is not enough for Andersson, what do we have to add? Pinto? Greig? Sanderson? I mean where does this stop lol

Those advanced stats might not mean a lot to you and while I'm not saying they are gospel, they're also the same ones that show that Nikita Zaitsev is terrible and that Jake Sanderson is great.

Andersson wouldn't look even close to as good if he was on a Sens right now. You're comparing a Darryl Sutter system vs a DJ Smith non-system

 

[Ouroboros]

Moving DeBrincat also creates a hole in the top 6 which the team can't fill internally.

On top of that, you have to be aware of Girouxs age and the potential for some slowdown on the current production.

Robbing Peter to pay Paul won't help the Sens. We don't have the depth. They need to keep our top players and find away to add a top 4 defenceman.

One or both of JBD/Thomson can take 3rd pairing/7th defenceman duties.

I haven't fully made up my mind right now, but at this point in time I have zero interest in making Alex Debrincat the highest paid player on the Senators. It doesn't make any sense to invest 9M in a guy that looks like a 65 point winger. I'm willing to accept a downgrade on the wing to facilitate an upgrade on defense.

I know everything that comes to Ottawa turns into crap but already?




View attachment 610573

How much more than 7th OA + 39th OA + 3rd is Andersson worth?

And that was DeBrincat value at its lowest, in a buyer's market

By the way, the time of that trade is after this season so it's 3 seasons then UFA for The Rasmus.

I don't think Debrincat will have higher value when the Senators go to trade him. In fact, I expect them to get a little less than they gave up to acquire him in the first place.

Part of Debrincat's value this summer was that you could get him for a very reasonable cap hit of 6.4M. That's gone now - if you want him going forward he's coming in around 9M and he just doesn't look like he's worth that kind of scratch. It's generally a bad idea to invest that kind of money on the wing anyway.

Not only that, but there is still the lingering question of exactly how good this guy is away from Patrick Kane. His performance this season has not dispelled any of the notions that he benefitted immensely from that partnership. His underlying numbers have absolutely cratered this year - particularly his defensive impact, ability to create rush chances and his finishing impacts.

It's going to be very difficult for the Senators to have any sort of meaningful negotiations with DeBrincat. He's in the midst of a down year personally, and the team is off to a pretty disastrous start. Is either side happy with how this is working out thus far? This is compounded by the fact that the player has all the leverage - he's highly incentivized to just take his 9M QO this summer and test the market in summer 2024.

Some people like to say the Senators 'stole' DeBrincat last summer, but I don't look at it that way. The Senators made the best offer for this player and that's why he's here. I tend to wonder why no team valued this player at a higher price than what the Senators paid to acquire him.

If I had to guess I'd say you'll see him dealt for a package of futures worth about 75% of what the Sens gave up to acquire him in the first place. Maybe they find a team with a defenseman in a similar situation [a year or two of term remaining] and do a 1-for-1 deal, but there is no chance they get a very good player on a good contract like Rasmus Andersson. That's not going to happen.

 

[Big Muddy]

Debrincat's contract next year is 1 year at $9 m. That limits the amount of teams he can be marketed to I'd think.

I'm not convinced we'll get back what we gave to land him. And we'll certainly not get a RD of the quality of Andersen who has a great contract. Would we give him up if we had him, especially for a rental (1 year) winger with an expensive contract?

 

[Loach]

Debrincat's contract next year is 1 year at $9 m. That limits the amount of teams he can be marketed to I'd think.

I'm not convinced we'll get back what we gave to land him. And we'll certainly not get a RD of the quality of Andersen who has a great contract. Would we give him up if we had him, especially for a rental (1 year) winger with an expensive contract?

When Bondratime said people will be upset by the return for DeBrincat...I got a sinking feeling in my gut. What if Dorion tries to shake up the dressing room by trading players that have been here awhile and keeps Debrincat? He said its not DJs fault. Brady said its not DJs fault and it was on the players. Weird things could be afoot.

 

[GCK]

Calgary wouldn’t trade Anderson for Debrincat and JBD alone.

A 25 minute a night #1 right shot D on the best contract in the league isn’t being traded.

I was thinking Batherson + + for Andersson. The pluses would be be painful such as Greig.

 

[GCK]

Severson is the big fish UFA wise this year
But don't know why he wouldn't re-sign with his actual powerhouse

I can’t see NJ re-signing Severson. Nemec should slide into his spot. They have Luke Hughes coming as well which likely means Graves will also hit the market.

 

[Big Muddy]

When Bondratime said people will be upset by the return for DeBrincat...I got a sinking feeling in my gut. What if Dorion tries to shake up the dressing room by trading players that have been here awhile and keeps Debrincat? He said its not DJs fault. Brady said its not DJs fault and it was on the players. Weird things could be afoot.

Well, I suppose anything can happen. I'd have to wonder if anything that Dorion does now would need to get approval from the Board. And the Board could be operating under the principle that they won't do anything that jeopardizes the sale of the team. So, hopefully those things would prevent this from happening.

And, as far as anything said by anyone in the media, I wouldn't worry much about that. These are things that GMs and captains/players say in this kind of situation. And then, they fire the coach a few weeks or months later anyhow.

IMHO, the current management team (GM and coach at least) are the prototypical "lame duck" group. New ownership will be making changes and putting in their people that they have more confidence in.

 

[GCK]

I haven't fully made up my mind right now, but at this point in time I have zero interest in making Alex Debrincat the highest paid player on the Senators. It doesn't make any sense to invest 9M in a guy that looks like a 65 point winger. I'm willing to accept a downgrade on the wing to facilitate an upgrade on defense.




I don't think Debrincat will have higher value when the Senators go to trade him. In fact, I expect them to get a little less than they gave up to acquire him in the first place.

Part of Debrincat's value this summer was that you could get him for a very reasonable cap hit of 6.4M. That's gone now - if you want him going forward he's coming in around 9M and he just doesn't look like he's worth that kind of scratch. It's generally a bad idea to invest that kind of money on the wing anyway.

Not only that, but there is still the lingering question of exactly how good this guy is away from Patrick Kane. His performance this season has not dispelled any of the notions that he benefitted immensely from that partnership. His underlying numbers have absolutely cratered this year - particularly his defensive impact, ability to create rush chances and his finishing impacts.

It's going to be very difficult for the Senators to have any sort of meaningful negotiations with DeBrincat. He's in the midst of a down year personally, and the team is off to a pretty disastrous start. Is either side happy with how this is working out thus far? This is compounded by the fact that the player has all the leverage - he's highly incentivized to just take his 9M QO this summer and test the market in summer 2024.

Some people like to say the Senators 'stole' DeBrincat last summer, but I don't look at it that way. The Senators made the best offer for this player and that's why he's here. I tend to wonder why no team valued this player at a higher price than what the Senators paid to acquire him.

If I had to guess I'd say you'll see him dealt for a package of futures worth about 75% of what the Sens gave up to acquire him in the first place. Maybe they find a team with a defenseman in a similar situation [a year or two of term remaining] and do a 1-for-1 deal, but there is no chance they get a very good player on a good contract like Rasmus Andersson. That's not going to happen.

The Sens stole Debrincat because they were able to take the contract without sending any contracts back.

 

[Micklebot]

I was thinking Batherson + + for Andersson. The pluses would be be painful such as Greig.

Pass.

 

[GCK]

Pass.

That’s surprising actually.

 

[Micklebot]

The Sens stole Debrincat because they were able to take the contract without sending any contracts back.

Debrincat's trade value will be dependant on what happens with the cap imo. If it doesn't jump up more than initially expect for next season, we might get more value by holding off till next deadline even though he'd be a UFA instead of an RFA.

 

[Big Muddy]

I can’t see NJ re-signing Severson. Nemec should slide into his spot. They have Luke Hughes coming as well which likely means Graves will also hit the market.

New Jersey has a lot of cap space next year (see attached). They have $35.7 m of projected cap space, but only 10 players signed. So, they have a lot of flexibility.

Severson seems like an OK target for the Senators though. I wouldn't mind that.

The Devils do have a lot of decent looking defensemen prospects though.

New Jersey Devils Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

New Jersey Devils salary cap, contracts, roster, draft picks, salary, cap space, stats, salary cap projections, and daily cap tracking

www.capfriendly.com

 

[GCK]

New Jersey has a lot of cap space next year (see attached). They have $35.7 m of projected cap space, but only 10 players signed. So, they have a lot of flexibility.

Severson seems like an OK target for the Senators though. I wouldn't mind that.

The Devils do have a lot of decent looking defensemen prospects though.

New Jersey Devils Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

New Jersey Devils salary cap, contracts, roster, draft picks, salary, cap space, stats, salary cap projections, and daily cap tracking

www.capfriendly.com

Severson is likely getting around 45-50M on his next deal.

 

[Micklebot]

That’s surprising actually.

I think there are other targets that fit our need and will likely cost less, Andersson is great, but adding him when we already have Chabot and Sanderson is overkill unless we plan on moving on from Chabot.

 

[GCK]

I think there are other targets that fit our need and will likely cost less, Andersson is great, but adding him when we already have Chabot and Sanderson is overkill unless we plan on moving on from Chabot.

I think there are other targets that fit our need and will likely cost less, Andersson is great, but adding him when we already have Chabot and Sanderson is overkill unless we plan on moving on from Chabot.

I’m not following. We don’t have a top 4 RD going into next year, how is it overkill.

 

[Micklebot]

I’m not following. We don’t have a top 4 RD going into next year, how is it overkill.

We need a reliable car to get to work and pick up the groceries, we've got our luxury vehicles in Chabot and Sanderson, so spending what it will take to get Andersson isn't the best use of our assets imo.

Re-sign Zub and try and pick up a guy like Carlo for example, the acquisition cost would be far less and I think you get diminishing returns in on ice impact bringing in arguably a third #1 dman. I also think when Andersson hits UFA we'd be in a bind.

If we trade Batherson, what are we doing on the right side, particularly if DeBrincat decides he's not interested in sticking around? Giroux won't be around forever, we could very quickly wind up very thin on the wings.

 

[GCK]

We need a reliable car to get to work and pick up the groceries, we've got our luxury vehicles in Chabot and Sanderson, so spending what it will take to get Andersson isn't the best use of our assets imo.

Re-sign Zub and try and pick up a guy like Carlo for example, the acquisition cost would be far less and I think you get diminishing returns in on ice impact bringing in arguably a third #1 dman. I also think when Andersson hits UFA we'd be in a bind.

If we trade Batherson, what are we doing on the right side, particularly if DeBrincat decides he's not interested in sticking around? Giroux won't be around forever, we could very quickly wind up very thin on the wings.

Andersson has 3 more years after this one, who knows what the landscape is by then. I’d rather be thin on the wing than on D, much easier to get a winger as we saw this summer.

Strength down the middle and a good D corps is the best recipe for success. The time for patchwork D has passed.

 

[Micklebot]

Andersson has 3 more years after this one, who knows what the landscape is by then. I’d rather be thin on the wing than on D, much easier to get a winger as we saw this summer.

Strength down the middle and a good D corps is the best recipe for success. The time for patchwork D has passed.

I'm not recommending patchwork, I'm looking for guys who can be slotted where they should be. I just think we can better use the assets we have to fill out the roster than blowing our depth up to get Andersson.

The only way Calgary is moving Andersson right now is for an offer that makes no sense, and personally I see Batherson, Greig, + as not making sense given where we are right now.

 

[BondraTime]

We aren’t getting a RD unless we pay up.

We’re about to lose the only top 4 RD the team has acquired outside of Karlsson and a 37 year old Gonchar in the past 20 years.

If we don’t pay up, we’ll get more Hamonics, Demelo’s and Gudbranson’s, and we will contribute to be a joke on D.

 

[HSF]

We aren’t getting a RD unless we pay up.

We’re about to lose the only top 4 RD the team has acquired outside of Karlsson and a 37 year old Gonchar in the past 20 years.

If we don’t pay up, we’ll get more Hamonics, Demelo’s and Gudbranson’s, and we will contribute to be a joke on D.

i dont get why people are so against paying up. I don't think we need to do a Andersson type deal as losing debrincat just creates another hole. But we could easily just have a LD play RD. It happens a ton around the league

or you know go and get marino this past summer

a player like greig should absolutely be on the table for the right player

 

[Alex1234]

We need an impact RHD imo
We are 30th in the league ...30th
We are not getting near a playoff spot with a regular 4th RD

 

[Micklebot]

Here's the thing, we went into the season with a hole at RD, then injuries piled up to some key guys.

Ok, all teams get injuries, but if you want to cover up for a weak backend, you need support from your centers, well that's a problem because our top center was the first guy to get injured and is out long term, and our next two centers have a combined 183 games of NHL experience. We've got a PTO signing that's being asked to step into a top 6 role, and a rookie on the 4th line with 31 games to his career.

Everyone is focused on how bad the backend is, and yeah, it's got it's issues particularly when we need to deal with missing one or both of Chabot and Zub, I honestly think re-signing Zub and picking up a guy like Carlo would result in a pretty solid group.

That and a coach to help round out our young centers' games and we can take a big step forward defensively.

 

[GCK]

i dont get why people are so against paying up. I don't think we need to do a Andersson type deal as losing debrincat just creates another hole. But we could easily just have a LD play RD. It happens a ton around the league

or you know go and get marino this past summer

a player like greig should absolutely be on the table for the right player

It’s actually pretty rare. There are 5 teams that had a lefty playing top 4 RD this season

Theodore, Josi, Brodie, Schmidt and Dahlin.

I think Sanderson may eventually be able to move to the right side but it will likely be a few more years of gaining experience before he would be ready to try.

Here's the thing, we went into the season with a hole at RD, then injuries piled up to some key guys.

Ok, all teams get injuries, but if you want to cover up for a weak backend, you need support from your centers, well that's a problem because our top center was the first guy to get injured and is out long term, and our next two centers have a combined 183 games of NHL experience. We've got a PTO signing that's being asked to step into a top 6 role, and a rookie on the 4th line with 31 games to his career.

Everyone is focused on how bad the backend is, and yeah, it's got it's issues particularly when we need to deal with missing one or both of Chabot and Zub, I honestly think re-signing Zub and picking up a guy like Carlo would result in a pretty solid group.

That and a coach to help round out our young centers' games and we can take a big step forward defensively.

It’s not just injuries, our D is pretty soft and easy to play against. I’d take Carlo but it’s a risk with his concussion history and it would likely still cost a 1st and Greig.

 

[Micklebot]

It’s not just injuries, our D is pretty soft and easy to play against. I’d take Carlo but it’s a risk with his concussion history and it would likely still cost a 1st and Greig.

I don't think it would cost that much for Carlo, but your right about there being some risk.

Boston is in a bit of a cap pinch at the moment, Forbert is coming off LTIR in Dec, they are going to be a motivated seller, and while they may prefer not to move Carlo, he's eating 4 mil that they might need this offseason.

Parayko to me is the dream acquisition but he's going to likely cost too much.