2021 Offseason Thread | 2022 Roster Speculation Part III

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Would love to move on from Seguin, his contract is significantly worse than Benn's. It's not happening though, so I guess I'll hope for a bounce back instead.

 

[M88K]

Would love to move on from Seguin, his contract is significantly worse than Benn's. It's not happening though, so I guess I'll hope for a bounce back instead.

How? Because of 2 extra years? Or because of the injury?
Seguin before the surgery was far and away the best forward on the team, and could even be argued as best player (with Heiskanen and Bishop)
The whole team struggled to produce in the Monty & Bones year but he still led the team by a decent amount.
He's a bit of an unknown coming back from the injury, but the 3 game sample size was promising that he should at least rebound well enough to still be among the best on the team still(if not the best).
I mean Kucherov(1yr younger only) had the same procedure done and didn't seem to miss a beat.
Now of course there's the "If" If Seguin has some long term issues from the surgery, then yeah that contract could get into Benn territory pretty quickly.
But I can't invision a world, even with long term surgery complications, where Seguin is as bad as Benn is now, which is what it would take for that contract to be anywhere near what you're saying, and in that case, he's probably LTIR fodder anyway, where the 2yrs additional term, nor the 350k difference matters.

Given the choice though I'd sign Seguin to an 6yr contract today for 9.85m, over keeping Benn for the next 4yrs at 9.5 without even a moment to hesitate.

 

[JeffP]

Athletic (Dom) did an evaluation of every contact in the NHL by team: By the numbers: Grading every NHL team’s contract efficiency, 2021 edition

Think it's interesting to look at. He had a whole article on the 10 worst contracts in the league and had Seguin on there. I was kind of surprised, but when you think that he hasn't played an entire year and so his last relevant sample size was the awful years under Montgomery where everyone's numbers looked horrible, I guess it does make sense. Also about to hit the bad side of the aging curve.

article makes me question dom loosechicken's attitude and commitment to sparklemotion

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

How? Because of 2 extra years? Or because of the injury?
Seguin before the surgery was far and away the best forward on the team, and could even be argued as best player (with Heiskanen and Bishop)
The whole team struggled to produce in the Monty & Bones year but he still led the team by a decent amount.
He's a bit of an unknown coming back from the injury, but the 3 game sample size was promising that he should at least rebound well enough to still be among the best on the team still(if not the best).
I mean Kucherov(1yr younger only) had the same procedure done and didn't seem to miss a beat.
Now of course there's the "If" If Seguin has some long term issues from the surgery, then yeah that contract could get into Benn territory pretty quickly.
But I can't invision a world, even with long term surgery complications, where Seguin is as bad as Benn is now, which is what it would take for that contract to be anywhere near what you're saying, and in that case, he's probably LTIR fodder anyway, where the 2yrs additional term, nor the 350k difference matters.

Given the choice though I'd sign Seguin to an 6yr contract today for 9.85m, over keeping Benn for the next 4yrs at 9.5 without even a moment to hesitate.

Yeah, it's mostly the extra 2 years. 4 years of pain is better than 6 years of pain.

Having said that, I think you're a lot higher on present day Seguin than me. The skating looked very pedestrian last I saw him. Unless the wheels come back, the next 6 years likely won't go well.

 

[Satan]

4 years
4 goalies

 

[Satan]

Makes u think....

 

[LT]

Makes u think....

theyre performing a hockey gods ritual

4 4 4

theyre summoning the gods to possess heiskanen and elevate him to an entirely new level

 

[eartotheground]

where's @BG44 ? need some content

 

[Captain Awesome]

how did u end up here my guy?

To misread my post, where I definitely didn't say he was not going to come to camp. Maybe it's like that year where we had Jagr and some random person posted here all year long because he exclusively follows Jagr, but not a team. This is the Kuznetsov guy, endlessly searching for new Kuznetsov related posts to overreact to.

 

[Satan]

To misread my post, where I definitely didn't say he was not going to come to camp. Maybe it's like that year where we had Jagr and some random person posted here all year long because he exclusively follows Jagr, but not a team. This is the Kuznetsov guy, endlessly searching for new Kuznetsov related posts to overreact to.

Remember the Zuccarello guy? He literally gave me AIDS

 

[Captain Awesome]

Yeah, it's mostly the extra 2 years. 4 years of pain is better than 6 years of pain.

Having said that, I think you're a lot higher on present day Seguin than me. The skating looked very pedestrian last I saw him. Unless the wheels come back, the next 6 years likely won't go well.

The reverse 'would you rather' game, where in this scenario you only get one terrible contract, but in real life, we gotta deal with both. I'm not gonna read into how Seguin did for a couple games at the tail end of the season when he wasn't really ready to come back, though he did match his goal output in the playoffs (lol). My problem with him isn't one injury, he has gotten injured quite a bit over the years, all lower body stuff, and Seguin without wheels is just going to accelerate the aging curve dramatically for him. Kind of a coinflip on which contract I'd rather have, I'll take Benn's if Seguin has lost a step. Benn is still kind of hanging on to being a top 6 player, and he actually looked good when they stuck him at center (nearly went a ppg during that time IIRC), his contract was awful the day it was signed but at least we know it is guaranteed to only be bad for 4 more years instead of 6.

Of note is that Seguin scored 17 goals in 69 games + 2 goals in 26 games counting regular season and the cup run. That's really awful. Injury or not, he hasn't produced that badly since his rookie year, points or goals. Thankfully they are also his worst shooting percentage averages ever. If you use his career average (10.8%) and adjust his shots (291) over an 82 game season, it comes out to about 31 goals over a season. Basically you're hoping that was just a terrible year, but I never bet against aging for too long. At least Seguin was historically elite, which means he should age better than most, but injuries have a way of f***ing that up.

To conclude, if there's one thing I know for sure, it's that Lindell's contract f***ing sucks.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

They're both still good players. Benn scored at a 55 point over 82 game pace last year, so he's still a good second liner. Seguin will likely outscore Benn assuming he can get a full season without spending much time on the IR. But that's not a totally safe assumption and he tends to breakdown as the season goes on. So, I'm a lot less confident in Seguin contributing to any playoff run and 6 years is too long to be on the books.

Lindell's NMC kicked in, so I'm done talking about moving on from him. He is what he is, but at least I'm not worried about age related decline. Avoiding the Klingberg extension would be a big priority of mine now. Obliviously that sucks because he's awesome and incredibly important, but they can't afford him with what defenseman are going for these days.

 

[Hockey Dad]

So if you hold it against Seguin for bad play with the injury then can you not use 2 goals in 3 games to end last year as a positive. I don’t think he will be what he was but I think he will be a solid player low 1c high 2c player. Yes overpaid but still a good player. After seeing some of the contracts signed by defensemen this off-season I have no complaints about Lindells contract. I mean it is not like they are stuck with Seth jones or Darnell Nurse contracts.

 

[LT]

Remember the Zuccarello guy? He literally gave me AIDS

literally? big yikes

 

[Satan]

literally? big yikes

No cap

 

[Captain Awesome]

So if you hold it against Seguin for bad play with the injury then can you not use 2 goals in 3 games to end last year as a positive. I don’t think he will be what he was but I think he will be a solid player low 1c high 2c player. Yes overpaid but still a good player. After seeing some of the contracts signed by defensemen this off-season I have no complaints about Lindells contract. I mean it is not like they are stuck with Seth jones or Darnell Nurse contracts.

My guy, the Benn and Seguin contracts ARE our Nurse and Jones contracts. Also, an insanely low bar to be judging whether contracts are good or not, because both those contracts are extremely, extremely bad. Lindell is very overpaid, he's basically just a boat anchor Klingberg carries around the offensive zone and neutral zone while being just competent (but not great) defensively. If you want to make an argument about the value of his contract vs other D contracts, you could probably go look at contracts signed around him during when it was signed. I don't think it really matters, since it's been a bad contract since the day it was signed, but that's from the viewpoint that I think Lindell is maybe a borderline top 4 d-man whose role could be fulfilled for half the price.

As for the part about Seguin, I literally said I didn't take much from those post injury games, it is most of the sentence you read.

They're both still good players. Benn scored at a 55 point over 82 game pace last year, so he's still a good second liner. Seguin will likely outscore Benn assuming he can get a full season without spending much time on the IR. But that's not a totally safe assumption and he tends to breakdown as the season goes on. So, I'm a lot less confident in Seguin contributing to any playoff run and 6 years is too long to be on the books.

Lindell's NMC kicked in, so I'm done talking about moving on from him. He is what he is, but at least I'm not worried about age related decline. Avoiding the Klingberg extension would be a big priority of mine now. Obliviously that sucks because he's awesome and incredibly important, but they can't afford him with what defenseman are going for these days.

Yeah, RIP to getting rid of the worst d contract on the Stars. Sadly, agree about Klingberg. I could see him still being useful if you signed him to something like $7M x 5, but no way in hell he isn't walking out of UFA with less than $8M x 7 years or something like that.

 

[BfantZ]

With Robertson and hintz turning the page I could really see the stars as a group be a lot better offensively and seguin bouncing back big time and being closer to his older numbers .

 

[Satan]

It's actually kinda crazy that we're in the back 9 of the Benn contract.

 

[BfantZ]

My guy, the Benn and Seguin contracts ARE our Nurse and Jones contracts. Also, an insanely low bar to be judging whether contracts are good or not, because both those contracts are extremely, extremely bad. Lindell is very overpaid, he's basically just a boat anchor Klingberg carries around the offensive zone and neutral zone while being just competent (but not great) defensively. If you want to make an argument about the value of his contract vs other D contracts, you could probably go look at contracts signed around him during when it was signed. I don't think it really matters, since it's been a bad contract since the day it was signed, but that's from the viewpoint that I think Lindell is maybe a borderline top 4 d-man whose role could be fulfilled for half the price.

As for the part about Seguin, I literally said I didn't take much from those post injury games, it is most of the sentence you read.



Yeah, RIP to getting rid of the worst d contract on the Stars. Sadly, agree about Klingberg. I could see him still being useful if you signed him to something like $7M x 5, but no way in hell he isn't walking out of UFA with less than $8M x 7 years or something like that.

I don’t think 8m would be that bad tbh but I doubt they even get him that low .

 

[Zapp]

Our janitor is back to work I see

 

[Captain Awesome]

I don’t think 8m would be that bad tbh but I doubt they even get him that low .

I wouldn't hate it, the term is the big problem. Keep in mind he'd be age 29 when he started the new contract. A lot of guys tend to fall off really hard in their early 30's, and generally are well out of their prime before hitting 30. Weirdly enough, today is his birthday! At least it is in my timezone, happy b-day Klinger.

 

[MilesNewton]

Coming back from the surgery Seguin had will most likely take him another year. Projected recovery time is about 8-12 months on that surgery. thinking 2022 will be his year but can Dallas even move him if they want?
Another Vladi Tarasenko possibly if they don't.

 

[serp]

Coming back from the surgery Seguin had will most likely take him another year. Projected recovery time is about 8-12 months on that surgery. thinking 2022 will be his year but can Dallas even move him if they want?
Another Vladi Tarasenko possibly if they don't.

Considering he had the surgery in late 2020 i would think he's fine at the beginning of next season. He looked good in the 3 games he played . He'll be fine in October.

 

[BfantZ]

Considering he had the surgery in late 2020 i would think he's fine at the beginning of next season. He looked good in the 3 games he played . He'll be fine in October.

Absolutely. He looked fully recovered when he played last year .

 

[BfantZ]

I wouldn't hate it, the term is the big problem. Keep in mind he'd be age 29 when he started the new contract. A lot of guys tend to fall off really hard in their early 30's, and generally are well out of their prime before hitting 30. Weirdly enough, today is his birthday! At least it is in my timezone, happy b-day Klinger.

Ya hopefully klinger gives them a little term discount given his age but doubt it . Although , Klinger is a guy who has exceptional hands . Those kinda guys often seem to stay effective longer .