Speculation: 2021 Offseason Roster Discussion

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Lindholm is not our best defensemen, he's our best player.... easily.

Prob the least respected best player on the team in franchise history.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

The fact our defense is ranked so low shows this model is flawed.

I feel like the forward stuff is pretty dead on... but not really buying the defense part.

And im in the camp that Manson anchors Lindholm down.

 

[Paul4587]

If he’s so good at the analytics side of the game how hasn’t he adjusted his model for context yet? Consistently his model says players like Shattenkirk are better than Fowler and Lindholm and he admits it makes no sense yet he doesn’t seem to adjust it for usage and quality of competition/teammates.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Jeez, that roster looks bleak.

It's the Wright roster though

 

[Mr Rogers]

Dom was way too negative on Drysdale. An “alarmingly poor” rookie season which as even he noted was played against top lines. Also a lot of it was spent on his off-side.

 

[KelVarnsen]

Lindholm was playing so f***ing well last year before his injury. If he stays healthy in his contract season I think he's going to have a monster year.

Rinse and repeat…….

 

[duxfan1101]

 

[bsu]

View attachment 466317

He gone

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Lol, if that isn’t a sign that Gibby isn’t on board I don’t know what is

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Honestly im all for trading Gibson if we can get a 1st + good prospect + filler goalie.

Its prob the right move in terms of a rebuild.

 

[duxfan1101]

Teams I could see having interest in upgrading their goaltending within the next year:

Carolina - Imagine another Gibson-Andersen tandem
Chicago - They could easily re-sign Fleury or Lankinen, but if neither of them have good years, they may look elsewhere
Colorado - If Kuemper doesn't play well or gets injured a lot
Dallas - They're probably a longshot, but it could be a possibility
Edmonton - Mike Smith is signed for 2 years, but they are already reportedly looking for an upgrade over Koskinen
Ottawa - If they think they can compete and they don't think Murray is the answer
Philadelphia - Another longshot, they have a number of quality goalie prospects (and Hart), but they seem desperate to improve
Pittsburgh - If Jarry doesn't improve, they would certainly be interested, although they don't have much to offer in a trade
Vancouver - A 3rd longshot if Demko plays poorly

I think Edmonton, Colorado, and Pittsburgh are at the top of the list.
I could also see Buffalo or Arizona flipping Gibson elsewhere.

 

[Paul4587]

If Edmonton wants to pay us assets to take Koskinen and on top of that will give up a good package for Gibson that would be worth considering. I would be all for that.

 

[duxfan1101]

If Edmonton wants to pay us assets to take Koskinen and on top of that will give up a good package for Gibson that would be worth considering. I would be all for that.

I was thinking something like Koskinen + Holloway + 1st + 2nd. Holloway may be untouchable for Holland, though.

 

[ShadowDuck]

Send him home to Pittsburgh for their next three 1sts.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I was thinking something like Koskinen + Holloway + 1st + 2nd. Holloway may be untouchable for Holland, though.

I think its more like

Holloway/Broberg + 1st + koskinen
for
Gibson
- I think maybe we could get a conditional pick added to that but the conditions prob have to heavily favor Oilers

Carolina def has the assets to make the move... just not sure if they want to
Pitt would be interesting... but not much in terms of what they can offer.

 

[JohnnyDrama]

A good prospect, mid late first and a cap dump goalie for Gibson? That’s trash

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

A good prospect, mid late first and a cap dump goalie for Gibson? That’s trash

Unfortunately his stat line from last 2 seasons is also trash

I mean what are you expecting 4 1sts?

 

[JohnnyDrama]

Unfortunately his stat line from last 2 seasons is also trash

I mean what are you expecting 4 1sts?

What’s the asset we’re getting for taking on Koskinen? Is it the late first? That’s what makes it trash. We’re taking a bad goalie making good money + giving up Gibson for a late first and good prospect. For this type of deal I’d expect at least a blue chip back or at least some proven young player in the deal

edit; I didn’t know Kosk was UFA after this year but the point still stands, he has no value or negative value

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Why are we even entertaining the thought of trading within the division? Ship him out East!

 

[Leonardo87]

Have to give more credit to guys like Rakell who said they want to stay and see the rebuild through, would love to extend him if the price is not too crazy.

If Gibson on the other hand, truly feels this way and is just gonna phone it in, and put on his puss face, then he can get the F out. I get he wants to win, but he should be a little patient and will still be in his prime when the Ducks are competitive again. I mean this young group, is something to be excited about, especially if you are a veteran player.

 

[bsu]

I literally hate people with the attitude Gibson showed there. You are so much better off without them in any sport imo.

 

[mightyquack]

Gibson's attitude has obivously come across as bad the last two seasons, and certainly appears to have phoned it in a bit. But it would be suicidial to trade Gibson within the division, guy is one of the best goaltenders in the NHL when he's 'on' and no doubt he'll be 'on' if he's playing for a competitive team. I'd rather avoid having to go against him a bunch of times every season.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

View attachment 466317

So what more did he say?

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Anaheim Ducks 2021-22 season preview – The Athletic

That chart is terrible, but it's also done over a three year span. The written content is actually very good, with the exception that I think Manson is better than he's citing. Lindolm gets docked for his injuries, but the author cites he's one of the best defenders out there with tops in zone exits. Gibson hasn't been very good for the past couple of seasons and the author identifies it well.

The author's model has been off on the Ducks. Here's a snippet on that thought:

That was the thesis anyway and for three years this model has been dead wrong about the Ducks. In 2018-19 it expected the team to continue being playoff caliber at 97 points — they earned 80. In 2019-20 it expected a playoff bubble team at 88 points only for the team to keep falling to a 77-point pace. Last season the model figured the team would be bad, but not awful at 56 points. Anaheim was second last with 43 points instead.

That’s 17 points, 11 points, and 13 points too many over three straight seasons, making Anaheim the team the model has likely been least accurate on over that stretch. That should change this year as the model is extremely low on the Ducks, rating Anaheim as the league’s third-worst team.

The reason the model is off is because of the expectation of players available and their previous production, which spans three seasons for the model, iirc.

2018-19 model uses the following seasons: 2017-18 (playoffs), 2016-17 (playoffs Western Conference Finals), 2015-16 (playoffs)
2019-20 model uses the following seasons: 2018-19, 2017-18 (playoffs), 2016-17 (playoffs Western Conference Finals)
2020-21 model uses the following seasons: 2019-20, 2018-19, 2017-18 (playoffs)
2021-22 model uses the following seasons: 2020-21, 2019-20, 2018-19​

We're predicted to be very low for this season because for the past three seasons we've sucked like hell. But let's overlay our injuries over those seasons.

Man games lost plot via NHLinjuryViz links:

2018-19: link
2019-20: link
2020-21: link​

The Ducks have been injury plagued often for the past three seasons.

The author is correct in his assessment that the Ducks are lacking star power today and will need some to get back into the playoff talks. If Zegras and Drysdale are star powers, then the Ducks are in good hands. If they're not stars, then the Ducks need to do more digging. But back to the three years in the aforementioned, we lost a lot of star power starting in 2017-18 with Eaves and 1/2 Kesler. It continued in 2018-19 when we also lost Perry. All that was left in 2019-20 in star power was Getzlaf, but even then Getz' play was declining.

Recently, GM Murray stated that he just wants to do moves that will support the youth because Murray thinks he has those stars in tow with Zegras, Drysdale, and McTavish. Yet, I think that Lindholm is the superstar that Ducks have, but he must stay healthy. Many of us here also believe that Lindholm is our superstar today. The author lauds about Lindholm, but doesn't think of him as a superstar because Lindholm isn't a scoring defenseman. At best, the author has Lindholm as a 1D, which is still a very, very good rating.

I think the Ducks are primed to surprise with the youth movement, but also the veteran health movement too in Lindholm, Manson, and Silfverberg. F Milano may be a pleasant surprise because he's got a lot of speed. A player left out in the article is F Volkov. If he can be productive in a bottom-6 role, then we could be a better balanced team.

There's a lot of "ifs" surrounding the Ducks going into this season, which the author succinctly identifies. It's a good article, just don't pay attention to the chart.

 

[Static]

So what more did he say?

“I think you’re always looking at what’s happening with your team,” Gibson said, speaking on whether he pays much attention to offseason moves. “Obviously, this year wasn’t much so it wasn’t a whole lot to look at.”

“I’ve never been a part of one [on rebuilding], so I don’t really know,” said Gibson, who inked a max eight-year deal on his wedding day in 2018. “I guess I’m a part of one now. Like I said, I just want to win. The last few years, I’m tired of it. Hopefully going into this year, we can start off right and kind of turn the ship. Because I think you ask anybody in there, they’re tired of losing. I know I am. Tired of being at the bottom of the division and kind of out of things when there’s still three months left to play in the season.
“And I think it goes back to my first five, six years here. Maybe I was spoiled, and I didn’t really realize everything. We just knew how to win. Winning was natural and we didn’t know how to lose. And now we’ve kind of accepted losing and we got to be able to turn the tide.”