Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Prospects

[BStinson]

''THE DRAFT ANALYST'' (STEVE KOURNIANOS) DOES HIS 1ST ROUND RANKING :

Was he the guy high on Seider?

 

[ShanahanMan]

Was he the guy high on Seider?

Had him at 18.....just below Mastrimome lol.

 

[Frk It]

Was he the guy high on Seider?

He is a lot higher on European players than the consensus in general, from what I can remember.

Not sure if he has adjusted his approach. He used to have Swedish/Russian guys in the 1st round others had in the later rounds pretty consistently.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Was he the guy high on Seider?

I imagine you're think of hockeyprospect.com, who had Seider at #10. I'm not sure of any major site or pundit who rated Moritz higher than that.

 

[BStinson]

He is a lot higher on European players than the consensus in general, from what I can remember.

Not sure if he has adjusted his approach. He used to have Swedish/Russian guys in the 1st round others had in the later rounds pretty consistently.

Definitely more Euros than some of the other rankings I’ve seen. Oddly, Edvinsson is 22 below Anton Olsson.

I imagine you're think of hockeyprospect.com, who had Seider at #10. I'm not sure of any major site or pundit who rated Moritz higher than that.

Thanks, wasn’t exactly sure and assumed it was Steve.

 

[simonedvinsson]

Definitely more Euros than some of the other rankings I’ve seen. Oddly, Edvinsson is 22 below Anton Olsson.

that's the most puzzling take to me. i've only seen Olsson play a handful of times, but i really don't know what people see in him. he's a good skater, but that's the only positive that i've noted. for all the flack Edvinsson gets about his decision making with the puck, Olsson makes far more questionable passes in all three zones. what am i missing?

 

[Frk It]

that's the most puzzling take to me. i've only seen Olsson play a handful of times, but i really don't know what people see in him. he's a good skater, but that's the only positive that i've noted. for all the flack Edvinsson gets about his decision making with the puck, Olsson makes far more questionable passes in all three zones. what am i missing?

When watching Sweden at the U18s, #19 and #4 were two players that consistently caught my eye. That was Rosen and Olsson. I had not seen either play prior to the tournament. (Lysell was the other, but I knew what to expect with him)

I thought Olsson had a real smoothness to him and good mobility. Just thought he moved like a pro. Reminded me a little of Bjornfot, But maybe I wasn’t paying enough attention to his decision making, and it was a very small sample for me.

It made me interested in him in the 25-50 range, but certainly not over Edvinsson.

 

[deca guard]

Was he the guy high on Seider?

that draft , which is archived on rightside at his site , he spoke very highly of sides and his opinion on him was right on the money . but in his final ranking he had at 18th = same area as about everybody else except :
YZERGOD

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

that's the most puzzling take to me. i've only seen Olsson play a handful of times, but i really don't know what people see in him. he's a good skater, but that's the only positive that i've noted. for all the flack Edvinsson gets about his decision making with the puck, Olsson makes far more questionable passes in all three zones. what am i missing?

Feel free to ask Steve Kournianos here!

 

[Henkka]

that draft , which is archived on rightside at his site , he spoke very highly of sides and his opinion on him was right on the money . but in his final ranking he had at 18th = same area as about everybody else except :
YZERGOD

18th was also the spot on my rank of averages.

 

[WaW]

So do we move up to #22 with the Washington pick if NYI and TB can finish their series' off?

Would look alot better than the WSH fans saying "well, pick 29-32 is basically just a second anyways" at the time of the trade.

 

[jkutswings]

I wish they had separated center from wing, but Dobber Prospects did a quick and dirty draft analysis by position, eventually looking at how often a guy plays at least 100 games versus where they're taken in the draft:

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities By Position – DobberProspects

And unless they're a top 5 pick, goalies are the riskiest position to draft.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

I wish they had separated center from wing, but Dobber Prospects did a quick and dirty draft analysis by position, eventually looking at how often a guy plays at least 100 games versus where they're taken in the draft:

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities By Position – DobberProspects

And unless they're a top 5 pick, goalies are the riskiest position to draft.

That's really interesting. Looks like this analysis reveals that a 3rd round pick is pretty similar to a 2nd, value-wise. And that for the purposes of drafting a goalie, picks 15-90 are more or less the same. Pairing that with the fact that goalies in 6-14 only have a 2/3 chance of hitting... yikes. No goalies for me until later on, thanks.

 

[jkutswings]

That's really interesting. Looks like this analysis reveals that a 3rd round pick is pretty similar to a 2nd, value-wise. And that for the purposes of drafting a goalie, picks 15-90 are more or less the same. Pairing that with the fact that goalies in 6-14 only have a 2/3 chance of hitting... yikes. No goalies for me until later on, thanks.

Yeah, it's definitely a good start. I'd be curious about further refinement (percentages at more games played, distinguishing center from wing, etc.) but thumbs up for what they did.

 

[newfy]

That's really interesting. Looks like this analysis reveals that a 3rd round pick is pretty similar to a 2nd, value-wise. And that for the purposes of drafting a goalie, picks 15-90 are more or less the same. Pairing that with the fact that goalies in 6-14 only have a 2/3 chance of hitting... yikes. No goalies for me until later on, thanks.

Lots of people have been saying this on here the last 3 years where lots of people have had Knight/Askarov/Wallstedt boners. Nice to see some actually data back it up. No sense in drafting a goalie that high and similar value can be gained from the second or third round

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Lots of people have been saying this on here the last 3 years where lots of people have had Knight/Askarov/Wallstedt boners. Nice to see some actually data back it up. No sense in drafting a goalie that high and similar value can be gained from the second or third round

I'm not going to knock the data (I've posted it around here before and it's pretty informative.) but I would like to see updated numbers going from 2010 to 2016. 2017 to 2020 don't have enough datapoints yet to be informative enough.

Here's another article that isn't as well broken down but it shows the percentage of players per round that make it.

What percentage of NHL draft picks make it to the NHL? | Hockey Answered

 

[Ishad]

So do we move up to #22 with the Washington pick if NYI and TB can finish their series' off?

Would look alot better than the WSH fans saying "well, pick 29-32 is basically just a second anyways" at the time of the trade.

Tampa needs to go to the conference finals to impact the pick. NYI closing out would move us up to 24.

Best thing left that can happen this round is if NYI/Nashville/Montreal win

 

[Frk It]

I wish they had separated center from wing, but Dobber Prospects did a quick and dirty draft analysis by position, eventually looking at how often a guy plays at least 100 games versus where they're taken in the draft:

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities By Position – DobberProspects

And unless they're a top 5 pick, goalies are the riskiest position to draft.

That's really interesting. Looks like this analysis reveals that a 3rd round pick is pretty similar to a 2nd, value-wise. And that for the purposes of drafting a goalie, picks 15-90 are more or less the same. Pairing that with the fact that goalies in 6-14 only have a 2/3 chance of hitting... yikes. No goalies for me until later on, thanks.

This is what I used to reference, which incorporates drafts from 1998 to 2010. I like that the link you provided separates round 2 and 3.

 

[HisNoodliness]

So do we move up to #22 with the Washington pick if NYI and TB can finish their series' off?

Would look alot better than the WSH fans saying "well, pick 29-32 is basically just a second anyways" at the time of the trade.

No, unfortunately losing in the second or first round is the same. You're then rated by regular season standings. So it all depends on who makes it to the conference finals. As things stand Washington is 25th (26th but they move up one because of Arizona). So let's look at each division:

In the East we just need Pittsburgh to lose in this series or the next. So either an Islanders win now or a Boston win in the second round would bump us from 25 to 24. This seems fairly likely as the Islanders lead the Penguins and I'd say Pittsburgh's a coin flip against Boston even if they can beat NYI. For ease, we'll call them both 50/50 giving us a 75% chance of jumping one spot.

In the Central we need Florida and Carolina to lose. Tampa is leading Florida and Nashville is tied with Carolina. If either Florida or Carolina moves on, we can still jump a spot if they then lose in the conference finals to Tampa or Nashville. If both move on, we're hosed. Ultimately, I think Tampa beats Florida and Carolina beats Nashville then we have a coin flip in the Central finals between Tampa and Carolina. We'll call this one 50/50.

Edmonton and Winnipeg were both beneath Washington already so there's no impact there. All that matters in the North is that Leafs lose. If they lose in the first or second round, we move up another spot. The Leads should be the favorites over both Winnipeg and Montreal whom they're leading... But there's a decent chance at an upset in either series. I'll say we're 60/40 against us to move up one spot here.

And then in the West, Colorado has already moved on which doesn't help us. If however Minnesota can upset Vegas and then Colorado we get another spot because Minnesota would hop Washington. I'd be pretty surprised if the Wild could pull off the upset against Vegas down 3-2 let alone follow that up by beating Colorado... Crazier things have happened but I'm going to say we're at like a 15% chance of getting a spot here.

Those series odds are just my own guesses. You can adjust this analysis based on how you feel about them or even plug in Dom's model or something to be more accurate. If we go ahead with my odds then we just add up the probabilities of every state and we can get our odds of each pick:

25th OA: .25*.5*.6*.85 = 6.375%

24th OA: (.25*.5*.6*.15 + .25*.5*.4*.85 +.25*.5*.6*.85 + .75*.5*.6*.85) = 30.875%

23rd OA: ((.25*.5*.4 + .25*.5*.6 +.75*.5*.6)*.15 + ((.25*.5*.85 + .75*.5*.85)*.4 +.75*.5*.6*.85 = 41.375%

22nd OA: ((.75*.5*.4*.85 + .75 *.5*.6*.15 +.75*.5*.4*.15 + .25*.5*.4*.15) = 19.125%

21st OA: .75*.5*.4*.15 = 2.25%

 

[WaW]

No, unfortunately losing in the second or first round is the same. You're then rated by regular season standings. So it all depends on who makes it to the conference finals. As things stand Washington is 25th (26th but they move up one because of Arizona). So let's look at each division:

In the East we just need Pittsburgh to lose in this series or the next. So either an Islanders win now or a Boston win in the second round would bump us from 25 to 24. This seems fairly likely as the Islanders lead the Penguins and I'd say Pittsburgh's a coin flip against Boston even if they can beat NYI. For ease, we'll call them both 50/50 giving us a 75% chance of jumping one spot.

In the Central we need Florida and Carolina to lose. Tampa is leading Florida and Nashville is tied with Carolina. If either Florida or Carolina moves on, we can still jump a spot if they then lose in the conference finals to Tampa or Nashville. If both move on, we're hosed. Ultimately, I think Tampa beats Florida and Carolina beats Nashville then we have a coin flip in the Central finals between Tampa and Carolina. We'll call this one 50/50.

Edmonton and Winnipeg were both beneath Washington already so there's no impact there. All that matters in the North is that Leafs lose. If they lose in the first or second round, we move up another spot. The Leads should be the favorites over both Winnipeg and Montreal whom they're leading... But there's a decent chance at an upset in either series. I'll say we're 60/40 against us to move up one spot here.

And then in the West, Colorado has already moved on which doesn't help us. If however Minnesota can upset Vegas and then Colorado we get another spot because Minnesota would hop Washington. I'd be pretty surprised if the Wild could pull off the upset against Vegas down 3-2 let alone follow that up by beating Colorado... Crazier things have happened but I'm going to say we're at like a 15% chance of getting a spot here.

Those series odds are just my own guesses. You can adjust this analysis based on how you feel about them or even plug in Dom's model or something to be more accurate. If we go ahead with my odds then we just add up the probabilities of every state and we can get our odds of each pick:

25th OA: .25*.5*.6*.85 = 6.375%

24th OA: (.25*.5*.6*.15 + .25*.5*.4*.85 +.25*.5*.6*.85 + .75*.5*.6*.85) = 30.875%

23rd OA: ((.25*.5*.4 + .25*.5*.6 +.75*.5*.6)*.15 + ((.25*.5*.85 + .75*.5*.85)*.4 +.75*.5*.6*.85 = 41.375%

22nd OA: ((.75*.5*.4*.85 + .75 *.5*.6*.15 +.75*.5*.4*.15 + .25*.5*.4*.15) = 19.125%

21st OA: .75*.5*.4*.15 = 2.25%

I see. Thanks for clarifying. So best case scenario is a final 4 of Winnipeg, NYI/Bos, Minnesota, and TB/NSH then...realistically I like at least two of those happening (TB and Bos) and even Winnipeg has a shot. 22nd isn't terribly unrealistic at all then!

 

[deca guard]

yzergod got us caps 1st (#25) . nyr 2nd (#48) in the staal deal . kennys 2nd (#53) in the aa deal . tbay 4th (#121) in the savard deal . sens 5th (#138) , via habs , in the merril deal .

 

[lidstromiscool]

yzergod got us caps 1st (#25) . nyr 2nd (#48) in the staal deal . kennys 2nd (#53) in the aa deal . tbay 4th (#121) in the savard deal . sens 5th (#138) , via habs , in the merril deal .

That's a lot of dart throws for Yzerman.... I love it

 

[Winger98]

This is what I used to reference, which incorporates drafts from 1998 to 2010. I like that the link you provided separates round 2 and 3.

well, I feel better about the prospect of picking 8th now.

 

[Frk It]

well, I feel better about the prospect of picking 8th now.

If we have a 29% chance at getting a player .5 PPG or better, I might just as well give @Bench his goalie (so he can shut up).

 

[Bench]

If we have a 29% chance at getting a player .5 PPG or better, I might just as well give @Bench his goalie (so he can shut up).

Fast forward to 2022...

"We've had one goalie, yes, but what about second goalie?"