Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Prospects

[Frk It]

Fast forward to 2022...

"We've had one goalie, yes, but that about second goalie?"

 

[Hen Kolland]

This is what I used to reference, which incorporates drafts from 1998 to 2010. I like that the link you provided separates round 2 and 3.

I just spent some time putting this together to expand upon this and make it more informative. Albeit only for the first 15 picks of the draft, but it's an interesting start. I might spend some time expanding to the full first round by pick. The big thing for me is just wanting to see the breakout by position at each draft slot. I also increased the time frame to 2018, so there are some definite flaws considering the last draft classes won't have full careers to consider. So we are missing development as well as just completeness in general. An example would be defensemen selected #1 overall; we have Erik Johnson in 2006, Ekblad in 2014, and Dahlin in 2018. Ekblad is entering his prime and will make it to 500 games played and is creeping towards 0.5 PPG, Dahlin has only been around for 3 years (including 2 shortened years) so his games count is suppressed as well.

Either way, it's just for your viewing pleasure.

 

[Frk It]

I just spent some time putting this together to expand upon this and make it more informative. Albeit only for the first 15 picks of the draft, but it's an interesting start. I might spend some time expanding to the full first round by pick. The big thing for me is just wanting to see the breakout by position at each draft slot. I also increased the time frame to 2018, so there are some definite flaws considering the last draft classes won't have full careers to consider. So we are missing development as well as just completeness in general. An example would be defensemen selected #1 overall; we have Erik Johnson in 2006, Ekblad in 2014, and Dahlin in 2018. Ekblad is entering his prime and will make it to 500 games played and is creeping towards 0.5 PPG, Dahlin has only been around for 3 years (including 2 shortened years) so his games count is suppressed as well.

Either way, it's just for your viewing pleasure.

View attachment 439253

This is interesting to look at, thanks for putting it together.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I just spent some time putting this together to expand upon this and make it more informative. Albeit only for the first 15 picks of the draft, but it's an interesting start. I might spend some time expanding to the full first round by pick. The big thing for me is just wanting to see the breakout by position at each draft slot. I also increased the time frame to 2018, so there are some definite flaws considering the last draft classes won't have full careers to consider. So we are missing development as well as just completeness in general. An example would be defensemen selected #1 overall; we have Erik Johnson in 2006, Ekblad in 2014, and Dahlin in 2018. Ekblad is entering his prime and will make it to 500 games played and is creeping towards 0.5 PPG, Dahlin has only been around for 3 years (including 2 shortened years) so his games count is suppressed as well.

Either way, it's just for your viewing pleasure.

View attachment 439253

Strong work. It is nice to see the PPG figures up close and personal.

 

[Hen Kolland]

This is interesting to look at, thanks for putting it together.

Since it was so easy to update, here is 1-31.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

delete

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Since it was so easy to update, here is 1-31.

View attachment 439271

Nice post.

I guess it bodes well for us that the 2 defensemen picked at 6th overall have turned out pretty good.
It does not bode well that Zadina was picked 6th overall in regards to average forward performance.

Looks like it's a defenseman again this year!

 

[Hen Kolland]

Nice post.

I guess it bodes well for us that the 2 defensemen picked at 6th overall have turned out pretty good.
It does not bode well that Zadina was picked 6th overall in regards to average forward performance.

Looks like it's a defenseman again this year!

Like I mentioned, there are going to be some flaws with the data. Like two of the forwards selected 6th overall that would be included in this would be Zadina with 86 games and 37 points as well as Cody Glass with 66 games and 22 points. If those guys end up being big successes, then we may see things normalize a little bit.

The hard part is knowing where to draw the line for inclusion. It's not like we can wait for full careers right now because of the McDavids, Matthews, hell even the Svechnikovs of the world who are early successes on the scoresheet even though they are going to be short on games. At the same time, to include someone like Andrei Svechnikov, I am forced to include a player like a Joe Veleno picked 30 in the same draft who has 5 games under his belt. It isn't a perfect analysis, but I can't think of how you could weed out the players you want to exclude without going through on a case by case basis. And that is too much effort for me to want to put into this.

 

[jkutswings]

I would just stop after 2016. It avoids the limited sample size altogether, and I'd be shocked if the two extra draft classes change the rest of the data all that much.

Because really, if I guy hasn't stuck after 5 years, he probably never will.

(But nice job!)

 

[RedWingzz]

Watched Canada at the Worlds today, I can confirm:

Owen Power is good at hockey. Gotta admit, the thought of a Power-Seider D-pair has crossed my mind more than once.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I would just stop after 2016. It avoids the limited sample size altogether, and I'd be shocked if the two extra draft classes change the rest of the data all that much.

Because really, if I guy hasn't stuck after 5 years, he probably never will.

(But nice job!)

That's an easy fix. Here's 1998-2016.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

That's an easy fix. Here's 1998-2016.

View attachment 439316

Kind of makes you want to win the lottery..

 

[Henkka]

Points per game does not win Chanmpionships.

GAA will.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Points per game does not win Chanmpionships.

GAA will.

Well Henkka, I will put this as simple as I can. If you can find me a statistical metric that is readily available that can quantify defensive impact, I will try to help you build a spreadsheet that is useful.

Right now from a draft pick value perspective, we have 2 things that we can quantify with stats. NHL Longevity and NHL Offensive Production. That's it. Our eye test can tell us a lot that we miss defensively. Seider will likely never show as a big winner at #6 as he actually ends up being because of the things that aren't easily quantifiable.

If someone wants to mine me career scoring chances for and against by player or career expected goals created and conceded by player, I might be able to whip something up.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Kind of makes you want to win the lottery..

This year in particular it makes me really want to not be jumped in the lottery twice. Either that, or take a defenseman at 8 because there's some bad juju going on with that forward crop...not that the defensemen are much better.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

This year in particular it makes me really want to not be jumped in the lottery twice. Either that, or take a defenseman at 8 because there's some bad juju going on with that forward crop...not that the defensemen are much better.

To be fair, a lot of those 8th overall picks went to Buffalo. How good are they at developing their players? How much patience have they displayed before bringing a guy up? And are they picking the right player at that spot or are they reaching?

EDIT: I just looked. 4 times picking 8th for Buffalo.

In the dataframe
2013 - Rasmus Ristolainen
2016 - Alex Nylander

Not there yet
2017 - Casey Mittlestadt
2020 - Jack Quinn

 

[golffuul]

To be fair, a lot of those 8th overall picks went to Buffalo. How good are they at developing their players? How much patience have they displayed before bringing a guy up? And are they picking the right player at that spot or are they reaching?

EDIT: I just looked. 4 times picking 8th for Buffalo.

In the dataframe
2013 - Rasmus Ristolainen
2016 - Alex Nylander

Not there yet
2017 - Casey Mittlestadt
2020 - Jack Quinn

Mittlestadt appears to be the best of the 4, so far.

 

[TCNorthstars]

 

[jkutswings]

I think somebody switched McTavish and Beniers.

 

[ShanahanMan]

I'm starting to think Eklund could easily be picked first.

 

[Frk It]

I'm starting to think Eklund could easily be picked first.

Big eliteprospects guy, huh?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think somebody switched McTavish and Beniers.

Maybe some people are thinking Mason McTavish's combo of skill, speed and physicality makes him this year's Brady Tkachuk.

There's might also be a recency bias from McTavish playing at the WJC18s and Beniers not playing since...march?

I don't know about 2nd best NA skater, but I think he squarely belongs in the top 10. I won't be surprised if someone reaches for him in the top 5 due to his physicality.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

With McTavish, I don't know man. I mean I like his build, he's big and mean and skilled. I'm just not sure I see the upside that I'd like for a center in the top 10.

This year he played a dozen-ish games in the Swiss B league. Stats look fine, but I won't pretend I saw a single second of those games. Maybe the pro scouts really liked what they saw.

The rest of us are mainly going off his D-1 in Peterborough and the U18 tournament. I guess I'll defer to those who have seen him play more, but to me it feels like people are putting a lot of stock into him bullying little Belarussian kids this tournament.

If McTavish were our pick I worry he might fall into that Rasmussen/Veleno carousel of good players who aren't quite good enough to challenge Larkin as a 1A/1B center. And I know some folks feel the same way about Beniers, who I like a lot, but I guess I've just seen a lot more from Beniers to ease that concern.

 

[ShanahanMan]

Big eliteprospects guy, huh?

Haha, I mean I am, but he’s been really jumping in the rankings as of late.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

With McTavish, I don't know man. I mean I like his build, he's big and mean and skilled. I'm just not sure I see the upside that I'd like for a center in the top 10.

This year he played a dozen-ish games in the Swiss B league. Stats look fine, but I won't pretend I saw a single second of those games. Maybe the pro scouts really liked what they saw.

The rest of us are mainly going off his D-1 in Peterborough and the U18 tournament. I guess I'll defer to those who have seen him play more, but to me it feels like people are putting a lot of stock into him bullying little Belarussian kids this tournament.

If McTavish were our pick I worry he might fall into that Rasmussen/Veleno carousel of good players who aren't quite good enough to challenge Larkin as a 1A/1B center. And I know some folks feel the same way about Beniers, who I like a lot, but I guess I've just seen a lot more from Beniers to ease that concern.

McTavish and Beniers are really cut from the same cloth in a lot of ways. Both are better than the sum of their respective individual skill sets. I think Beniers is smarter without the puck but McTavish is a plus IQ player in his own right. The gap between the two is probably smaller than we want to admit. I can see both having a similar impact in the NHL. I don't see Beniers putting up 20 more points a year than McTavish. The difference is much smaller than that. I also have a hard time seeing either become a first line NHL center, which is really the heart of the matter.

Recency bias is a concern with McTavish, but the U18s did show that his skating has definitely improved over last year. I would probably start to consider him in the 6-8 range.