Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft Prospects

[FMichael]

Exactly.

If we draft one of Eklund, Guenther or Johnson in the first round it's not the end of the world. If and/or when they are ready to step into a top 6 role and we look thin at another position then we look to trade from our position of strength (wing) for a position of weakness.

Yzerman turned Drouin into Sergachev. And after Mantha for Vrana + Panik + 1st + 2nd trade I'm confident that he'd be able to turn any of Berggren/Zadina/Raymond/Bertuzzi/Fabbri into a filled need.

Drouin for Sergachev ought to see Yzerman in the state penitentiary for highway robbery.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Will Hughes fully recover from his achilles tendon repair?

Don't want a EK65 like situation here.

You would probably need to direct that question to his surgeon

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Drouin for Sergachev ought to see Yzerman in the state penitentiary for highway robbery.

And De LaRose for Fabbri should add more time to that sentence.

I'm confident that whichever position we draft with our top 10 pick we're going to get a good player.

 

[SirloinUB]

Will Hughes fully recover from his achilles tendon repair?

Don't want a EK65 like situation here.

I have no clue. Krebs is a guy who seems to have recovered well from an Achilles Situation

 

[FMichael]

I have no clue. Krebs is a guy who seems to have recovered well from an Achilles Situation

I guess if there's a scouting combine this year everyone will see how Hughes holds up.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Everyone's least trusted prospect columnist did a mailbag this week, and with the discussion surrounding Eklund recently, I figured I would share a few.

NHL prospects mailbag: Expectations for the Kings and Sabres; targets in the 2021 draft

"As a Swede watching prospect rankings, I think that a lot of European prospects on the lists are very undervalued. Is it the lack of available information or nationality bias that is the issue? I sometimes feel like if William Eklund had been Canadian or American he’d be the consensus No. 1. — Lars T
Some NHL scouts feel like Eklund is in the No. 1 mix. Most don’t and I have my reservations but when you really break his game down his only real flaw is his size, which should concern you if you can’t find anything else wrong. His performance with the national team recently is moving the needle a bit in his favor too."

"How do you view the top defensemen compared to last year’s Drysdale/Jake Sanderson? Would you rather Lucas Raymond or Guenther/Eklund? — Timothy H
I think Power and Luke Hughes are comparable to both of them at the same time and I would lean to the 2021 guys, but Drysdale’s season has been so good I may rate him as the best of the bunch right now.
It’s close enough to be a three-way tie. I think Guenther offers the most, but I know scouts who would take one of the Swedes as the best of the three."

"Aside from Luke Hughes, who are the other ELITE skaters in this draft? Where does Hughes stack up against recent elite skating prospects? — Jeremy F
He’s the best skater in the class considering his size. Other guys who would be in the discussion are William Eklund, Olen Zellweger, Jimi Suomi, Justin Robidas. Re-entry guy but Miguel Tourigny in Blainville can fly too."

Seeing Eklund listed as one of the best skaters is interesting. Admittedly I only watched him when checking out our prospects that happened to bed playing against him but I wouldn't have rated him among the best skaters. I think he's agile, able to accelerate and change directions quite well, but in terms of top end speed and ability to generate seperation in a rush situation, I think he's more just good. What's everyone else's take on that? Is he a burner and I just missed those rushes? Is he among the best skaters because he's agile and actually elite in that regard opposed to just great? Convince me Eklund is a top end skater and he could be the top forward on my list.

 

[lilidk]

Will Hughes fully recover from his achilles tendon repair?

Don't want a EK65 like situation here.

It might impact his skating, but he still going to be effective player

 

[lilidk]

Drouin for Sergachev ought to see Yzerman in the state penitentiary for highway robbery.

But he could draft Jones if he wasn't so much in love with Drouin

 

[lilidk]

Seeing Eklund listed as one of the best skaters is interesting. Admittedly I only watched him when checking out our prospects that happened to bed playing against him but I wouldn't have rated him among the best skaters. I think he's agile, able to accelerate and change directions quite well, but in terms of top end speed and ability to generate seperation in a rush situation, I think he's more just good. What's everyone else's take on that? Is he a burner and I just missed those rushes? Is he among the best skaters because he's agile and actually elite in that regard opposed to just great? Convince me Eklund is a top end skater and he could be the top forward on my list.

Don't forget he played against man , best SHL man

 

[FMichael]

But he could draft Jones if he wasn't so much in love with Drouin

Hindsight is 20/20...Nonetheless - Steve improved his situation.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Seeing Eklund listed as one of the best skaters is interesting. Admittedly I only watched him when checking out our prospects that happened to bed playing against him but I wouldn't have rated him among the best skaters. I think he's agile, able to accelerate and change directions quite well, but in terms of top end speed and ability to generate seperation in a rush situation, I think he's more just good. What's everyone else's take on that? Is he a burner and I just missed those rushes? Is he among the best skaters because he's agile and actually elite in that regard opposed to just great? Convince me Eklund is a top end skater and he could be the top forward on my list.

I think the kid has great acceleration and agility but his top end speed is above average. He's also pretty small right now but when he adds some core and lower body strength I can see him becoming a faster player. All the right mechanics and technique are there to be really good.

 

[lilidk]

Hindsight is 20/20...Nonetheless - Steve improved his situation.

Who is better Sergachev or Jones ?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Who is better Sergachev or Jones ?

Jones is definitely the better player now but wasn't the clear cut best player on draft day. 2013 was rated one of the deepest years in a while.

Tampa had a top 3 pick, and Drouin was ranked as a top 5 player. So was Seth Jones but for whatever reason he fell to Nashville.

Also Tampa had a very young 50 goal version of Stamkos, and a very young Victor Hedman figuring it out. In 2012 Tampa had drafted Slater Koekkoek at #10 overall. There wasn't any indication at the time he would bust the way he did. And in 2013 Tampa didn't have any clue at all that Kucherov would become the best winger in the NHL. It was also pretty apparent that Brett Connolly was a bust by 2013 despite being drafted in 2010.

So they had their franchise center, and their franchise D, and in 2012 they drafted who would become their franchise goalie. They needed a franchise winger.

The idea was that Stamkos and Drouin would be the next Ovechkin and Backstrom playmaker/sniper combo. No one anticipated Drouin becoming the 21st century equivalent of Alexandre Daigle.

 

[FMichael]

Who is better Sergachev or Jones ?

Lidstrom

 

[Hen Kolland]

Seeing Eklund listed as one of the best skaters is interesting. Admittedly I only watched him when checking out our prospects that happened to bed playing against him but I wouldn't have rated him among the best skaters. I think he's agile, able to accelerate and change directions quite well, but in terms of top end speed and ability to generate seperation in a rush situation, I think he's more just good. What's everyone else's take on that? Is he a burner and I just missed those rushes? Is he among the best skaters because he's agile and actually elite in that regard opposed to just great? Convince me Eklund is a top end skater and he could be the top forward on my list.

I won't try to convince you to buy him as a top end skater.

I don't see a top skater in the class with Eklund, but I have been high on him and have him in my top 4-5 players in the draft. I think that explosive pull away speed isn't in his bag of tricks, but I also think that is overrated with how he plays the game. He's an above average skater that plays at a pace faster than his feet. That's always a big thing for me is you have some players who are burners that can't process or execute at the pace their legs can move. I think it's the opposite for Eklund. I like his puck protection ability, I like his ability to adjust speeds and change directions, I love his ability to process and execute a step or two ahead of his feet. It's a similar quality that Perfetti had that I really liked.

This all comes with an open admission from me that I place his likelihood of playing center under 20%. I think the conversation of drafting a player who is similar to your other young players and recent picks is one that is reasonable to have.

 

[Christien]

Olen Zellweger is a LHD that had an excellent U18 tournament and went a point per game in the WHL this season. Really young for the draft, too, being born one day after Luke Hughes. Pronman mentioned him in one of his articles lately and compared his game to Sam Girard.

 

[Frk It]

I won't try to convince you to buy him as a top end skater.

I don't see a top skater in the class with Eklund, but I have been high on him and have him in my top 4-5 players in the draft. I think that explosive pull away speed isn't in his bag of tricks, but I also think that is overrated with how he plays the game. He's an above average skater that plays at a pace faster than his feet. That's always a big thing for me is you have some players who are burners that can't process or execute at the pace their legs can move. I think it's the opposite for Eklund. I like his puck protection ability, I like his ability to adjust speeds and change directions, I love his ability to process and execute a step or two ahead of his feet. It's a similar quality that Perfetti had that I really liked.

This all comes with an open admission from me that I place his likelihood of playing center under 20%. I think the conversation of drafting a player who is similar to your other young players and recent picks is one that is reasonable to have.

Who even are the elite skaters in this draft? Other than maybe Hughes or Edvinsson, I don't know that anyone really sticks out in that area in a big way.

Like I really have to think about it with this draft, as opposed to other drafts where I instantly have 4-5 names that come to mind.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Who even are the elite skaters in this draft? Other than maybe Hughes or Edvinsson, I don't know that anyone really sticks out in that area in a big way.

Like I really have to think about it with this draft, as opposed to other drafts where I instantly have 4-5 names that come to mind.

Oskar Olausson. That dude has some insane Jakub Vrana, Andreas Athanasiou speed.

 

[MBH]

And if they reach for a C or D who ends up being a nonfactor at the NHL level, that adds a lot more than one year to the rebuild

You're pretending that the 5'10 winger is some kind of hot shot and that guys like Hughes and Johnson are Sheahan.
People did the same thing when drafting a 5'10 winger instead of defensemen on the board - when there really was no way on earth to project Raymond has significantly ahead of Sanderson or Drysdale.

Look at the 2018 draft.
So many people had Zadina as BPA. And that was the HFboards consensus. Many of the D or C taken after Zadina is at least equal to or better as a prospect.
Even among Wings picks, I'm not sure that it's clear Zadina will be more valuable to Detroit than Veleno, taken 24 picks later.
And Zadina at least had real consensus behind him. Unlike Raymond or Eklund.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Who even are the elite skaters in this draft? Other than maybe Hughes or Edvinsson, I don't know that anyone really sticks out in that area in a big way.

Like I really have to think about it with this draft, as opposed to other drafts where I instantly have 4-5 names that come to mind.

He has a different style than someone like a Hughes, but Beniers' zone entry ability is as good as any prospect I've seen.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

You're pretending that the 5'10 winger is some kind of hot shot and that guys like Hughes and Johnson are Sheahan.
People did the same thing when drafting a 5'10 winger instead of defensemen on the board - when there really was no way on earth to project Raymond has significantly ahead of Sanderson or Drysdale.

Look at the 2018 draft.
So many people had Zadina as BPA. And that was the HFboards consensus. Many of the D or C taken after Zadina is at least equal to or better as a prospect.
Even among Wings picks, I'm not sure that it's clear Zadina will be more valuable to Detroit than Veleno, taken 24 picks later.
And Zadina at least had real consensus behind him. Unlike Raymond or Eklund.

are your top guys this draft power hughes and johnson?

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

I've had some spare time recently so I finally got around to making my "Top 100" list. I'd expect some minor changes, but I think for the most part I expect to see this list stay pretty much the same. Most of the ranking is based off my own model which takes into account age, ES scoring, PP scoring, and the league average scoring rate. I did have some viewings of guys via the U18 and WJC, but I tried to not let those viewings influence the list too much as I didn't see everyone.

I think this draft is actually kind of deep with a number of interesting players stretching into the 60s & later. One thing that shocked me was that most leagues goal scoring was pretty close to seasons past, but the USHL saw the average ES goals per game increase by 0.5, this is one of the largest year-over-year increases in my database. This means that relative to previous years some USHL players point totals may be a bit overstated so my rankings of Pastujov, Coronato, & Martino reflect that.

As always the tiers are more important than the rankings themselves and I can see arguments for players

Spoiler: 2021 Ranking

Ranking	Tier	NAME	DY+/-	POS
1	1	William Eklund	DY	F
2	1	Dylan Guenther	DY	F
3	1	Matthew Beniers	DY	F
4	1	Brandt Clarke	DY	D
5	1	Luke Hughes	DY	D
6	2	Owen Power	DY	D
7	2	Kent Johnson	DY	F
8	2	Fabian Lysell	DY	F
9	2	Mason McTavish	DY	F
10	3	Simon Edvinsson	DY	D
11	3	Fyodor Svechkov	DY	F
12	3	Cole Sillinger	DY	F
13	3	Chaz Lucius	DY	F
14	3	Jesper Wallstedt	DY	G
15	4	Olen Zellweger	DY	D
16	4	William Stromgren	DY	F
17	4	Logan Stankoven	DY	F
18	4	Conner Roulette	DY	F
19	5	Simon Robertsson	DY	F
20	5	Xavier Bourgault	DY	F
21	5	Nikita Chibrikov	DY	F
22	5	Aatu Raty	DY	F
23	5	Oskar Olausson	DY	F
24	5	Anton Olsson	DY	D
25	5	Isak Rosen	DY	F
26	5	Zachary L'Heureux	DY	F
27	5	Zachary Bolduc	DY	F
28	5	Prokhor Poltapov	DY	F
29	5	Samu Salminen	DY	F
30	5	Sasha Pastujov	DY	F
31	5	Francesco Pinelli	DY	F
32	6	Matthew Coronato	DY	F
33	6	Sebastian Cossa	DY	G
34	6	Daniil Chaika	DY	D
35	6	Brett Harrison	DY	F
36	6	Carson Lambos	DY	D
37	6	Staislav Svozil	DY	D
38	6	Brent Johnson	DY	D
39	6	Corson Ceulemans	DY	D
40	6	Alexander Kisakov	DY	F
41	6	Riley Kidney	DY	F
42	7	William Trudeau	DY	D
43	7	Cameron Whynot	DY	D
44	7	Olivier Nadeau	DY	F
45	7	Dmitry Kostenko	DY	D
46	7	Ville Koivunen	DY	F
47	7	Aidan Hreschuk	DY	D
48	7	Jacob Guevin	DY	D
49	7	Ayrton Martino	DY	F
50	7	Matthew Samoskevich	DY	F
51	7	Logan Mailloux	DY	D
52	7	Samu Tuomaala	DY	F
53	8	Wyatt Johnston	DY	F
54	8	Tyson Hinds	DY	D
55	8	Marcus Almquist	DY	F
56	8	Ethan Cardwell	DY+1	F
57	8	Scott Morrow	DY	D
58	8	Topias Vilén	DY	D
59	8	Jiri Tichacek	DY	D
60	8	Sean Tschigerl	DY	F
61	8	Michael Milne	DY	F
62	8	Eric Alarie	DY	F
63	8	Ryder Korczak	DY	F
64	8	Jakub Brabenec	DY	F
65	9	Simon Motew	DY	D
66	9	Michal Gut	DY+1	F
67	9	Kyle Masters	DY	D
68	9	Ryan McCleary	DY	D
69	9	Simon Knak	DY+1	F
70	9	Liam Dower Nilsson	DY	F
71	9	Ty Voit	DY	F
72	9	Martin Rysavy	DY	F
73	9	Lukas Pajer	DY	F
74	9	Trevor Wong	DY	F
75	9	Caedan Bankier	DY	F
76	9	Jake Chiasson	DY	F
77	9	Justin Robidas	DY	F
78	9	Arvid Eljas	DY	F
79	10	Kyle Crnkovic	DY+1	F
80	10	Rhett Rhinehart	DY+1	D
81	10	Jacob Melanson	DY	F
82	10	Cole Huckins	DY	F
83	10	Peter Reynolds	DY	F
84	10	Danil Aimurzin	DY+1	F
85	10	Dmitri Katelevsky	DY	F
86	10	Samuel Helenius	DY	F
87	10	Valtteri Karnaranta	DY	F
88	10	Matthew Knies	DY	F
89	10	Hugo Gabrielsson	DY	D
90	10	Red Savage	DY	F
91	10	Chase Stillman	DY	F
92	10	James Hardie	DY+1	F
93	10	Colton Dach	DY	F
94	10	Josh Doan	DY+1	F
95	10	Brennan Othmann	DY	F
96	10	Tyson Galloway	DY	D
97	11	Miguel Tourigny	DY+1	D
98	11	Charlie Desroches	DY+1	D
99	11	Xavier Simoneau	DY+2	F
100	11	Jacob Dion	DY+1	D
101	11	Dmitry Buchelnikov	DY	F
102	11	Ivan Didkovsky	DY+1	F
103	11	Maxim Musorov	DY+2	F
104	11	Oliver Kapanen	DY	F
105	11	Jeremy Wilmer	DY	F
106	11	Lukas Wernblom	DY+3	F
107	11	Oskar Jellvik	DY	F
108	11	Philip Granath	DY	F
109	11	Francesco Arcuri	DY	F
110	11	Avery Hayes	DY	F
111	11	Braeden Kressler	DY	F
112	11	Billy Constantinou	DY+2	D
115	11	Gannon Laroque	DY	D
116	11	Ben King	DY+1	F
117	11	Owen Pederson	DY+1	F
118	11	Ryker Evans	DY+1	D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Some notes on some players that I have ranked much higher than the consensus

Spoiler: Notes

• Fyodor Svechkov - He's well known for his 2-way play, but I think his overall offensive game is underrated. He's got the profile of a good 2C and should have a reasonably safe floor as well. His production was lower than most big scorers in the MHL due to a lower PP point total, I think once he gets more PP time his point totals will be eye catching. His profile reminds me of a better Ovchinnikov
• Olen Zellweger - I'm not going to say he's the next Sam Girard... but he's got a chance to be the next Sam Girard. Undersized, offensive orientated, and an excellent skater with great mobility. He's ranked in the 80s on McKenzie's list, but I'd expect him to be gone by the 2nd. His ES and PP production indicate that he wasn't just the recipient of good puck luck and his % of his teams offense is also a very good sign.
• William Stromgren & Connor Roulette - Both kind of fall into the same category. Both are extremely good play drivers with excellent ES production and not that much PP production. Similar to Svechkov I believe once they get more PP time their overall production will sky rocket. Both also played at U18 and had pretty strong performances. Stromgren was also over a point per game in the 3rd tier Swedish league.
• Riley Kidney - Another player with great ES numbers and a lack of PP production. He's ranked 92nd on McKenzie's List, but I think he'd be excellent value in the late 2nd or 3rd. He also is now leading the QMJHL playoffs in points.
• Ethan Cardwell - Is in his DY+1 and my topped ranked overager. He had a DY that should've seen him get drafted, but he was passed over. He followed up last year with an incredible season in Sweden's 3rd tier league. He's someone that I would take as early as the late 2nd, but I think he'll be available in the 5th or later.
• Miguel Tourigny - He's someone I had ranked in the later rounds last year and he's exploded offensively this season. He's well worth either a late round flyer, 5th+, or a contract to if he goes undrafted.
• Samu Salminen - A big bodied center that had excellent production in the U20 SM-sarja. He followed that up with a good U18. I think with his size and scoring touch he's someone who could make it as middle 6 C with the upside for more possibly. He's going the NCAA route like Veeti Miettinen so he'll have plenty of time to develop. I like him as early as our 2nd, but I think we could get him later.
• And, my personal favorite is Brent Johnson. He's an excellent two-way defenceman who produced extremely well for someone that was U18. He didn't have PP heavy production and with his two-way play seems like a good bet for a top 4 role. I think he would be a fine pick anywhere from the late 1st and onward.

 

[MBH]

are your top guys this draft power hughes and johnson?

Probably.
I want to look harder at Edvinsson.

Everytime I look at Beniers I see Larkin 2.0 - which is great.
But we have 1.0. And if we're going to take a forward, I want one who oozes skill but who's at least 6'0

 

[Hen Kolland]

You're pretending that the 5'10 winger is some kind of hot shot and that guys like Hughes and Johnson are Sheahan.
People did the same thing when drafting a 5'10 winger instead of defensemen on the board - when there really was no way on earth to project Raymond has significantly ahead of Sanderson or Drysdale.

Look at the 2018 draft.
So many people had Zadina as BPA. And that was the HFboards consensus. Many of the D or C taken after Zadina is at least equal to or better as a prospect.
Even among Wings picks, I'm not sure that it's clear Zadina will be more valuable to Detroit than Veleno, taken 24 picks later.
And Zadina at least had real consensus behind him. Unlike Raymond or Eklund.

And you're pretending that everyone sees the world through your eyes. Which they don't. You have a hyper aggressive stance on a lot of things based on a particular set of criteria that makes sense in totality to you and you alone. Some people will agree with you on positional value, but the way you come to your conclusions just doesn't work for many people. Which is true regarding everyone's attempt to assess the draft prospects.

Many, many, many people would project Raymond ahead of Sanderson and Drysdale. Many, many, many people would still take Zadina over a majority of the defensemen and centers taken behind him. It might not end up being right when it's all said and done, but that's part of the game. You take a chance on some of these kids and hope you find your unique version of Mitch Marner, who was taken behind Dylan Strome, and guess how that turned out? The big center underwhelmed and the 5'10 170lb winger blew up. Both sides have their merit, both sides have a chance of being right.

 

[Three Crowns]

Considering the players most likely available in the roughly 22-32 range, would you be willing to trade our 2022 1st to CBJ for the Tor and TB firsts they have for this draft? Maybe top3 lottery protection...
The objective of course to somewhat boost our rebuild.
I think the -21 draft will end up a sursprising one, positively, sooner or later and would love if Stevie gathered big ammo for this one.