Red Sox/MLB 2020 Spring Training IX - Red Sox say Chris Sale has a flexor strain, will be reassessed in a week

[CDJ]

Dodgers are paying from excess though. They don't need Verdugo or Maeda. They have the depth at both positions. They also didn't trade any of their prospects, who they could use to acquire other players. They may also already be prepared to beat anyone's offer to Betts this winter, whether it's good value or not. If they don't, there are other players on the market who they could sign. It's not like they're screwed if Betts leaves.

As for Price, 3 years x $15 million is probably, at worst, net value, given what other starters have signed for this year. Per Fangraphs $/WAR, Price has averaged $21.25 per year with the Red Sox, and his worst year was $11.7 in 2017. Every other year he's provided at least $18.8 of value to the Red Sox.

It's not as simple as trading five years of one player for one year of another. If they were going all in for this year, that would be one thing, but trading for Betts does not affect their ability to compete in the future at all. That seems pretty low risk to me.

really depends what Verdugo becomes Imo

 

[Mr Cartmenez]

They are probably going to get the twins comp pick, that’s my prediction.

I mean, that wouldn't be horrible additional value, but just years and years away. Not that sexy outlook.

And in general I am not sure it was a good idea to demand a young, almost ML-ready high ceiling SP back. Teams usually never trade those guys (except they are getting a top SP back, see Kopech in the Sale trade or Glasnow for Archer)...unless something is up (Anderson Espinoza). Dodgers were never going to trade May, the same goes for the Padres with Gore/Patino.

 

[Gator Mike]

What impossibly high bar for trades have I set? How are the Dodgers taking all the risk?

Who suggested that? I was simply making a statement about this market, not some absurd caveat the Red Sox should make with a trade partner.

Maybe I've completely misunderstood your position...???

You're not happy with the trade.

I make the case that trading one year of a 6-10 WAR player for five years of a guy you think will be a 4-5 WAR player seems like a pretty good move.

You downplay Verdugo's value by saying that he's not a 4-5 WAR player yet - that there's a risk that he'll never become a 4-5 WAR player. It seems pretty obvious that this is already factored into his value, because there's no way the Dodgers would ever trade a young, established 5 WAR player with five seasons of control for one season of Mookie. In other words, if the Mets were interested in Mookie, they wouldn't trade someone like Pete Alonso to you to get him. Why bring up the fact that Verdugo's not a sure thing, unless you want a sure thing in return?

You further state that "some guys thrive in Boston and some don't". You're suggesting that there's an inherent additional risk for prospects due to the market. And if the same player is considered a risk by the Red Sox, and not a risk by the Royals or the Reds or some other small market team, then he's less valuable to the Red Sox than he is to those other teams because he carries that additional risk.

I mean, sometimes things get lost in translation on a message board, but that's my interpretation of your position.

 

[RockLobster]

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

The punishment is expected to be light for the Sox in the sign-stealing investigation, Nightengale reports.

 

[CDJ]

I mean, that wouldn't be horrible additional value, but just years and years away. Not that sexy outlook.

And in general I am not sure it was a good idea to demand a young, almost ML-ready high ceiling SP back. Teams usually never trade those guys (except they are getting a top SP back, see Kopech in the Sale trade or Glasnow for Archer)...unless something is up (Anderson Espinoza). Dodgers were never going to trade May, the same goes for the Padres with Gore/Patino.

That’s the funny thing about the Espinoza trade that people forget sometimes- there’s a reason why we were ok with taking Pomeranz and his medicals and not changing the trade. They probably knew something about Espinoza’s arm lol

 

[Gator Mike]

Mookie will outperform Verdugo by a lot and for a long time Take it to the bank

But I feel confident in saying the Dodgers will only get the better end of the trade if Mookie re-signs.

Also, Devil's Advocate...

Mookie Betts Career Home OPS: .930
Mookie Betts Career Road OPS: .858

 

[CDJ]

But I feel confident in saying the Dodgers will only get the better end of the trade if Mookie re-signs.

Also, Devil's Advocate...

Mookie Betts Career Home OPS: .930
Mookie Betts Career Road OPS: .858

Iirc I believe he hit the most least-likely home runs (convoluted statement, I know) in his mvp year too so the monster helps him out a lot. A lot of them went rather short distances for a homer

not that it matters- they count as homers all the same and a lot of them would be XBH elsewhere so he’s still impacting the ball. I did find that interesting back then tho

 

[Elvis P]

Roenicke is confirmed. Will be named after investigation is over.

 

[DKH]

really depends what Verdugo becomes Imo

Vada Pinson type player is what I see if healthy

 

[KrejciMVP]

But I feel confident in saying the Dodgers will only get the better end of the trade if Mookie re-signs.

Also, Devil's Advocate...

Mookie Betts Career Home OPS: .930
Mookie Betts Career Road OPS: .858

Ok so Mookie is worth even more at Fenway while Fenway is one if the toughest places to play for left handed hitters. Verdugos power numbers could go down. If Ortiz played in Yankee stadium imagine how many HRs he would have

 

[Gator Mike]

 

[Smitty93]

I'll say again: why are the Twins paying more? Graterol, even at his depressed value, is probably worth Maeda, since I thought the Twins overpaid for him initially. Dodgers should be the ones paying something more.

 

[CDJ]

I'll say again: why are the Twins paying more? Graterol, even at his depressed value, is worth probably worth Maeda, since I thought the Twins overpaid for him initially. Dodgers should be the ones paying something more.

Maeda’s contract is sexy, I don’t think the twins could get him for a guy that apparently right now projects as a reliever

Hes shown he can give you 150-175 innings quality innings at 3 mill per year for another 4 years.

 

[LSCII]

Maeda’s contract is sexy, I don’t think the twins could get him for a guy that apparently right now projects as a reliever

Hes shown he can give you 150-175 innings quality innings at 3 mill per year for another 4 years.

They were talking about his contract on TSH last night, and I was shocked how little he was making. Great value, even if the guy is pretty limited for what he can do.

If I'm Boston, I want no part of Graterol at this point. I make them swap him out for another player or I cut the Twins out of the deal and have the Dodgers sweeten it directly.

 

[CDJ]

They were talking about his contract on TSH last night, and I was shocked how little he was making. Great value, even if the guy is pretty limited for what he can do.

If I'm Boston, I want no part of Graterol at this point. I make them swap him out for another player or I cut the Twins out of the deal and have the Dodgers sweeten it directly.

i Don’t know if there was a language barrier between his agent and the dodgers but I don’t know how you can secure an 8 year commitment from a team but only get 3 mill per. I mean, the team clearly believes in you if they’re willing to go 8 years lol. Although I’d imagine long term security on the west coast was important to him

 

[Smitty93]

Maeda’s contract is sexy, I don’t think the twins could get him for a guy that apparently right now projects as a reliever

Is it really? It's heavily incentive based.

Innings pitched incentive: $250,000 each for: 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200.

Games Started Bonus: $1M each for: 15, 20, 25, 30, 32

He can max out to $8 million in incentives each year, so you could be paying him as much as $11.125M. Not that that's bad, but I wouldn't call it amazing. Maeda's averaged $8 million per year of the deal (so about $5 million in incentives each year).

 

[LSCII]

Is it really? It's heavily incentive based.

Innings pitched incentive: $250,000 each for: 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, 190, 200.

Games Started Bonus: $1M each for: 15, 20, 25, 30, 32

He can max out to $8 million in incentives each year, so you could be paying him as much as $11.125M. Not that that's bad, but I wouldn't call it amazing. Maeda's averaged $8 million per year of the deal (so about $5 million in incentives each year).

Sure, but in a world of guaranteed contracts, one that's dependent on the player not only staying healthy but producing, is a rarity.

 

[Smitty93]

Sure, but in a world of guaranteed contracts, one that's dependent on the player not only staying healthy but producing is a rarity.

Yeah, I mean if Maeda gave you 32 starts and 200 innings, he'd absolutely be worth $11 million. It just means that you have to consider that in your payroll accounting and leave yourself room below the tax line.

 

[BMC]

"Boys of Summer' author Roger Kahn dies at age 92

Roger Kahn, elegant 'Boys of Summer' author, dies at 92

 

[RockLobster]

So according to a Dodger fan or Red Sox hater on Twitter, the Sox need to "just accept this deal as is" because the alternative is that Mookie walks away for nothing after the year, and they're left with Price's contract.

When brought up with the notion that they could simply wait until the deadline and get a SIMILAR level of a deal, that's met with "good luck having him show up if he's still on the team at the beginning of the year"...

So Mookie would torpedo his own opportunity to reset the market, and not show up and play?

My whole stance is that this trade was already bad at the beginning. Finding a concern with Graterol is a godsend, and gives the Sox a chance to get the value closer to where it SHOULD have been to begin with. Just because the initial trade was dumb doesn't mean Bloom needs to double-down on his stupidity.

 

[Smitty93]

So according to a Dodger fan or Red Sox hater on Twitter, the Sox need to "just accept this deal as is" because the alternative is that Mookie walks away for nothing after the year, and they're left with Price's contract.

When brought up with the notion that they could simply wait until the deadline and get a SIMILAR level of a deal, that's met with "good luck having him show up if he's still on the team at the beginning of the year"...

So Mookie would torpedo his own opportunity to reset the market, and not show up and play?

My whole stance is that this trade was already bad at the beginning. Finding a concern with Graterol is a godsend, and gives the Sox a chance to get the value closer to where it SHOULD have been to begin with. Just because the initial trade was dumb doesn't mean Bloom needs to double-down on his stupidity.

I love how Dodgers/Twins fans seem to be losing their minds over the idea that the Red Sox want more from the deal. "Just accept it. No take-backsies. Why would we give you something more?"

 

[Smitty93]

I love how Dodgers/Twins fans seem to be losing their minds over the idea that the Red Sox want more from the deal. "Just accept it. No take-backsies. Why would we give you something more?"

Actually, the best part might be that other fans have been laughing at the return for Betts all week, saying the Dodgers robbed the Sox, but now the original deal is supposedly "fair".

Which is it? Did the Dodgers rob them, or was it a fair deal? Can't be both.

 

[CDJ]

Actually, the best part might be that other fans have been laughing at the return for Betts all week, saying the Dodgers robbed the Sox, but now the original deal is supposedly "fair".

Which is it? Did the Dodgers rob them, or was it a fair deal? Can't be both.

Before anything happened a lot of dodgers fans were like “no way you’re getting Verdugo for one year of a guy” and then it happened and they were ecstatic. They’re an indecisive bunch

 

[McGarnagle]

I find it fun that the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Angels are sitting there having their 2020 roster plans toyed with because the Twins are tanking the deal by refusing to add a sweetener to the damaged pitcher they thought they could get away with trading.