Red Sox/MLB 2020 Spring Training IX - Red Sox say Chris Sale has a flexor strain, will be reassessed in a week

[Smitty93]

Can we talk about the lineup yet?

I was going back and forth on ideas and something like this seems best:

Benintendi
Bogaerts
Devers
Martinez
Verdugo
Moreland/Dalbec
Vazquez
Peraza
Bradley

Benintendi hates batting lead-off and has some sort of mental block with it, but it makes the most sense to put him there.

 

[Therick67]

You could easily make the case that 5 years of control of a 5 WAR player is worth 1 year of a 6-10 WAR player.

But he isn't that, he very well may be but that's yet to be seen.

Lets also not forget, some guys thrive in Boston and some don't...

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

Can we talk about the lineup yet?

I was going back and forth on ideas and something like this seems best:

Benintendi
Bogaerts
Devers
Martinez
Verdugo
Moreland/Dalbec
Vazquez
Peraza
Bradley

I only have nitpicks with this lineup. As another pointed out, Beni hasn’t fared well in the lead off spot in the past, but there’s no reason not to give it another shot in ST. There was also the competing situation that Betts was not hitting like he usually did from the 3 hole. When Betts returned to lead off, production seemed to increase.

I’d love to see Dalbec break camp with the big club, but my guess is Chavis will platoon with Mitch and see some time at 2B.

 

[CDJ]

It's the order of the deals.

I didn't really look at it as a classic 3 team deal because the deal as initially shown made it seem like the Red Sox aren't trading anything to the Twins. Now, it reads as if it's two separate deals (Betts & Price for Verdugo & Maeda, followed by Maeda for Graterol), and the first trade is gross incompetence because there's no reason they should have been interested in Maeda even from a value standpoint. I assumed the Red Sox went to the Dodgers, said they wanted a starting pitcher prospect, and then the Dodgers went and found one, since they didn't want to trade any of theirs. The idea was that the Red Sox weren't dealing with the Twins at all and they shouldn't have.

The trade benefits the Dodgers the most, so the fact that the Twins pitcher is insufficient shouldn't mean the Twins have to do anything now, and they'd have no interest because it's not like Maeda is great or anything. They thought they paid full value for him. It should be all about the Dodgers making up the difference.

To me, the order of the deals and what Bloom values is important, and I have a different view of him if he thinks that he should be working with the Twins versus the Dodgers on fixing the deal.

you’re out to lunch if you think he did that without having everything lined up

he didn’t make the trade and hope. He knew he had graterol coming back for Maeda

imo it’s not a valid thing to complain about. It’s a 3 team trade where everything had to go right on all ends for it to work. If the trade with the twins were to fall through and we got stuck with Maeda you would have a point but that’s not the case


Also I think you underrate Maeda’s value as a cheap rotation piece but that’s neither here nor there. He’s not a world beater but he’s pretty damn solid and he’s cheap. That’s why a contender like the twins want him

 

[DKH]

Benintendi hates batting lead-off and has some sort of mental block with it, but it makes the most sense to put him there.

I’d bat him second - opens up side if runner on first and he is comfortable there

Verdugo
Benintendi
Bogearts
Martinez
Devers

 

[DKH]

Smart if it’s RR

 

[N o o d l e s]

I’d bat him second - opens up side if runner on first and he is comfortable there

Verdugo
Benintendi
Bogearts
Martinez
Devers

At that point I like him better 5th

 

[DKH]

At that point I like him better 5th

I want a left bat who can pull and go speed batting second

 

[Gator Mike]

Also saw this on twitter and it makes a ton of sense.

Why doesn’t LAD just kill their deal with LAA and send us Pederson and Stripling also? Sox could then flip Pederson away to LAA.

I don't think the Red Sox have the prospect capital to get Pederson and Stripling..

But he isn't that, he very well may be but that's yet to be seen.

Right. This is why you have scouts - so they can evaluate players and tell you how good they think those players are/will be. I mean, trades with prospects happen all the time. None of those players are sure things. In fact, Verdugo is actually more of a sure thing than most prospects, because he's actually done well at the major league level.

You're setting an impossibly high bar for any trade. You want the Dodgers to assume all of the risk, and you want the Red Sox have no risk. Trades don't work that way - even for really, really, really good players.

Lets also not forget, some guys thrive in Boston and some don't...

You can't run your franchise by starting off every trade negotiation by telling the other team "Your prospects aren't worth as much to us as they are to other teams because I don't know if they can play in Boston or not."

 

[Mr Cartmenez]

Also saw this on twitter and it makes a ton of sense.

Why doesn’t LAD just kill their deal with LAA and send us Pederson and Stripling also? Sox could then flip Pederson away to LAA.

I would do the deal if Dodgers gave us Stripling (and Pederson as salary dump) in this deal. Stripling is good and cheap. The kind of pitcher that can easily be flipped again for a top 100 prospect if necessary.
If the Sox are serious about 2020, I really wonder why they didn't just demand a Stripling in the first place (Dodgers obviously had no problem trading multiple SP with Price on the team, Gonsolin and May waiting in the wings).

But the reports make it sound like that the Twins needs to compensate. So I really have to wonder how such a deal would look like. If Graterols medials look bad (which would make him a RP at best), then he cannot be counted as a top prospect, so the Sox would either need a replacement for him (although Balazovic for example does not have the same type of upside) or someone or something in addition. Maybe the high 30's pick or someone like Duran.

 

[Gator Mike]

 

[Smitty93]

I don't think the Red Sox have the prospect capital to get Pederson and Stripling.

Isn't the Pederson/Stripling trade just a salary dump? They're only getting back Luis Rengifo, who isn't all that good. I think there's supposed to be another prospect coming too, but we don't know who yet and if they were any good, they'd already be known.

 

[Therick67]

I don't think the Red Sox have the prospect capital to get Pederson and Stripling..


Right. This is why you have scouts - so they can evaluate players and tell you how good they think those players are/will be. I mean, trades with prospects happen all the time. None of those players are sure things. In fact, Verdugo is actually more of a sure thing than most prospects, because he's actually done well at the major league level.

You're setting an impossibly high bar for any trade. You want the Dodgers to assume all of the risk, and you want the Red Sox have no risk. Trades don't work that way - even for really, really, really good players.


You can't run your franchise by starting off every trade negotiation by telling the other team "Your prospects aren't worth as much to us as they are to other teams because I don't know if they can play in Boston or not."

Yup, I understand what scouts do. I understand player evaluations. I understand prospects get traded all the time.

What impossibly high bar for trades have I set? How are the Dodgers taking all the risk?

 

[RockLobster]

Everyone, prepare to be greatly letdown and frustrated at how this ends up shaking out. We all thought it couldn't get worse, but somehow it will.

 

[Therick67]

Everyone, prepare to be greatly letdown and frustrated at how this ends up shaking out. We all thought it couldn't get worse, but somehow it will.

Almost everyone

 

[CDJ]

Yup, I understand what scouts do. I understand player evaluations. I understand prospects get traded all the time.

What impossibly high bar for trades have I set? How are the Dodgers taking all the risk?

they are trading five years of a guy Who was an impactful young starter for one year of a guy. They could also be paying $15 million a year to a guy Who has trouble staying healthy and that is only trending in the wrong direction

if they have Mookie for one year and don’t win the World Series this trade is a loss for them. they have the resources to make him the highest offer in free agency though so I expect them to do that and keep him

This is not a zero risk move by them. It’s a move that I would definitely make though.

They certainly are not taking all of the risk

 

[KrejciMVP]

Price will benefit being out of the AL east. Instead of Mannywood like it 2008 it will now be Mookiewood. Dodgers definitely will get a huge boost from the move with little risk. If the Sox made this type of move for just a Verdugo type player I'd be all for it

 

[LouJersey]

they are trading five years of a guy Who was an impactful young starter for one year of a guy. They could also be paying $15 million a year to a guy Who has trouble staying healthy and that is only trending in the wrong direction

if they have Mookie for one year and don’t win the World Series this trade is a loss for them. they have the resources to make him the highest offer in free agency though so I expect them to do that and keep him

This is not a zero risk move by them. It’s a move that I would definitely make though.

They certainly are not taking all of the risk

wonder if the dodgers are gonna be like “what you did w maeda is on you guys.”

 

[Mr Cartmenez]

Well, if the Sox don't get another (top) prospect/player out of the Twins, this would turn into an even bigger letdown. Who would believe Bloom if he said that the hold up wasn't due to Graterol and he is completely fine? Fact is the Twins used him as a reliever in the Majors and obviously didn't intend to use him as a SP in 2020, otherwise why bother trading him for another, even older SP? And if he's a RP-only, then this trade becomes even less valuable the Sox. Who would want to deal with high risk pitcher, who is overweight and had TJS before, if his ceiling is not that of a 2-3 SP?
Then I'd rather have had a positional prospect in the top 50 range like a Jeter Downs.

Again, the Twins would have NEVER...EVER given up on him if they thought there was a remote chance he could stay in the rotation long term. ZERO! It kinda baffles me what the Sox were thinking by making this trade. Is another 30 something pick enough to make me happy? No. Would Balazovic instead of Graterol make me happy? No. Would Kirilloff as Graterols replacement make me happy? Probably not.

I am even more furious that the Dodgers were ok with trading Stripling and the Sox couldn't get him included in the Betts deal. Along with Pederson it would have made a lot of sense. We could have send them a RP on top of that. Some of them only have 1 year left. Workman and Barnes for example.

 

[Therick67]

You can't run your franchise by starting off every trade negotiation by telling the other team "Your prospects aren't worth as much to us as they are to other teams because I don't know if they can play in Boston or not."

Who suggested that? I was simply making a statement about this market, not some absurd caveat the Red Sox should make with a trade partner.

 

[Gator Mike]

If the Sox made this type of move for just a Verdugo type player I'd be all for it

It's the Chris Sale trade in reverse. Red Sox won in the short term. White Sox will win in the long term.

 

[CDJ]

They are probably going to get the twins comp pick, that’s my prediction.


Also I don’t remember where I saw this but I could’ve sworn I saw that they don’t think Gravitron can start in the immediate future. That may open up the door down the line with the shoulder strengthening program and good health. Still a huge risk though and you have to end up getting more than him because of that

 

[KrejciMVP]

It's the Chris Sale trade in reverse. Red Sox won in the short term. White Sox will win in the long term.

Mookie will outperform Verdugo by a lot and for a long time Take it to the bank

 

[Smitty93]

they are trading five years of a guy Who was an impactful young starter for one year of a guy. They could also be paying $15 million a year to a guy Who has trouble staying healthy and that is only trending in the wrong direction

if they have Mookie for one year and don’t win the World Series this trade is a loss for them. they have the resources to make him the highest offer in free agency though so I expect them to do that and keep him

This is not a zero risk move by them. It’s a move that I would definitely make though.

They certainly are not taking all of the risk

Dodgers are paying from excess though. They don't need Verdugo or Maeda. They have the depth at both positions. They also didn't trade any of their prospects, who they could use to acquire other players. They may also already be prepared to beat anyone's offer to Betts this winter, whether it's good value or not. If they don't, there are other players on the market who they could sign. It's not like they're screwed if Betts leaves.

As for Price, 3 years x $15 million is probably, at worst, net value, given what other starters have signed for this year. Per Fangraphs $/WAR, Price has averaged $21.25 per year with the Red Sox, and his worst year was $11.7 in 2017. Every other year he's provided at least $18.8 of value to the Red Sox.

It's not as simple as trading five years of one player for one year of another. If they were going all in for this year, that would be one thing, but trading for Betts does not affect their ability to compete in the future at all. That seems pretty low risk to me.

 

[Smitty93]

Well, if the Sox don't get another (top) prospect/player out of the Twins, this would turn into an even bigger letdown. Who would believe Bloom if he said that the hold up wasn't due to Graterol and he is completely fine? Fact is the Twins used him as a reliever in the Majors and obviously didn't intend to use him as a SP in 2020, otherwise why bother trading him for another, even older SP? And if he's a RP-only, then this trade becomes even less valuable the Sox. Who would want to deal with high risk pitcher, who is overweight and had TJS before, if his ceiling is not that of a 2-3 SP?
Then I'd rather have had a positional prospect in the top 50 range like a Jeter Downs.

Again, the Twins would have NEVER...EVER given up on him if they thought there was a remote chance he could stay in the rotation long term. ZERO! It kinda baffles me what the Sox were thinking by making this trade. Is another 30 something pick enough to make me happy? No. Would Balazovic instead of Graterol make me happy? No. Would Kirilloff as Graterols replacement make me happy? Probably not.

I am even more furious that the Dodgers were ok with trading Stripling and the Sox couldn't get him included in the Betts deal. Along with Pederson it would have made a lot of sense. We could have send them a RP on top of that. Some of them only have 1 year left. Workman and Barnes for example.

The Sox 100% thought they were the smartest person in the room with Graterol. They assumed they could work some magic and ensure that he could be a mid-rotation starter long term. Obviously that was Dombrowski, but the Eovaldi signing clearly shows there's an organizational belief that they're not worried about players who have had TJ surgery in the past.

That's one of the biggest issues with the John Henry Red Sox. They think they're smarter than everyone else and if a player's broken, they can fix him.