Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft Thread Vol. 1

[denominator]

It's hard to predict trade-up scenarios. I only see them as being valuable if a player you were really high on starts sliding out of the range you had him projected at. With the late surge up the consensus rankings of players like Quinn, Sanderson, Jarvis, etc; I could see one of the guys at the bottom end of my "top-9 lock" tier (Lundell, Holtz) unexpectedly slide to 12+.

For players sliding in the second round and beyond... they've really got to slide for me to see the value in trading up to nab them. Luke Tuch is not a player I see sliding, or the value in jumping to the 34-42 range I currently have him in.

 

[FLYguy3911]

What is the hit rate on USNTDP players outside of the first round? It can’t be good.

 

[Starat327]

What is the hit rate on USNTDP players outside of the first round? It can’t be good.

International games, brah.

 

[Rebels57]

What is the hit rate on USNTDP players outside of the first round? It can’t be good.

I was curious, so I took a look. Probably too early on the 2019 Draft, but here are the last 5 nonetheless.

2019

2

43

Chicago

Alex Vlasic

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2

47

Colorado

Drew Helleson

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

90

Carolina

Domenick Fensore

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4

101

Anaheim

Henry Thrun

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4

118

New Jersey

Case McCarthy

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5

137

Florida

Owen Lindmark

C

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5

145

Pittsburgh

Judd Caulfield

R

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

6

158

New Jersey

Patrick Moynihan

R

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

6

166

Minnesota

Marshall Warren

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2018

2

32

Buffalo

Mattias Samuelsson

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2

41

NY Islanders

Bode Wilde

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

69

Chicago

Jake Wise

C

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

73

Arizona

Ty Emberson

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4

95

Ottawa

Jonathan Gruden

C

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4

103

NY Islanders

Jake Pivonka

C

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4

109

Colorado

Tyler Weiss

L

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5

131

Nashville

Spencer Stastney

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

6

174

Philadelphia

Gavin Hain

C

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2017

2

61

Nashville

Grant Mismash LW

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

66

Florida

Max Gildon

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

90

Chicago

Evan Barratt

C

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

92

Nashville

David Farrance

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4

102

San Jose

Scott Reedy

C

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5

133

Florida

Tyler Inamoto

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

7

201

NY Islanders

Logan Cockerill

L

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

7

208

Edmonton

Philip Kemp

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2016

2

45

Chicago

Chad Krys

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2

49

Boston

Ryan Lindgren

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

62

Toronto

Joseph Woll

G

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

64

Vancouver

William Lockwood

R

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

66

Calgary

Adam Fox

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

72

Toronto

J.D. Greenway

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

73

New Jersey

Joey Anderson

R

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5

149

Edmonton

Graham McPhee

L

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

7

193

NY Islanders

Nick Pastujov

L

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2015

2

32

Arizona

Christian Fischer

R

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2

50

Minnesota

Jordan Greenway

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2

61

Toronto

Jeremy Bracco

R

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

3

81

Arizona

Brendan Warren

L

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

4

117

Edmonton

Caleb Jones

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5

146

St. Louis

Luke Opilka

G

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

5

148

Anaheim

Troy Terry

R

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

6

171

Minnesota

Nick Boka

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

6

178

Anaheim

Steven Ruggiero

D

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[TB87]

What is the hit rate on USNTDP players outside of the first round? It can’t be good.

Seems like there's a higher hit rate for defenseman from the USNTDP drafted in the 2nd Rd and beyond than there is for forwards. Lots, lots more forwards were taken so that may skew the results a bit. However, from the 2015 Draft through the 2019 draft, these are hits and potential hits from drafted USNTDP defenseman:

2015 Draft:
Caleb Jones

2016 Draft:
Adam Fox

2017 NHL Draft:
Max Gildon (looks like a potential NHLer)
David Farrance (looks like a potential NHLer)
Tyler Inamoto (low-end potential NHLer)
Phil Kemp (low-end potential NHLer)

2018 NHL Draft:
Mattias Samuelsson (low-end potential NHLer)
Bode Wilde (village idiot)
Ty Emberson (looks like a potential NHLer)
Spencer Stastney (low-end potential NHLer)


2019 NHL Draft:
Alex Vlasic (he big so Chicago is going to do everything in their power to make him an NHLer)
Drew Helleson (low-end potential NHLer)
Domenick Fensore (looks like a potential NHLer)
Henry Thrun (looks like a potential NHLer)
Case McCarthy (Not too familiar with him so I have no idea about his NHL prospects. Didn't exactly stand out on the stacked defense core)
Marshall Warren (looks like a potential NHLer)



Moral of the story, seems like picking a defenseman from the USNTDP is a better bet than picking a forward in Rds 2 and beyond. Hence, my championing of Eamon Powell as a potential 3rd-4th Rd pick for the Flyers. If they get their hands on a 3rd Rd pick somehow. That is, if Bettman realizes that the draft has to be held after the conclusion of the season.

 

[FLYguy3911]

I've found in my amateur research over the years that you're more likely to find an impact defenseman outside of the first round than an impact forward. The only "star" of that group is Fox and he had no business really going in the 3rd round. He was very much in Cam York's class as a prospect at the same age. I loved Fensore and we all know why he went where he went and had it not been for Carolina, who knows how far he would have slid. Whole lot of other than that.

I don't think you can argue that the USNTDP hasn't been beneficial to USA Hockey, but the program has helped to develop more stars than anything else. If you think about it, the best development is playing games. If you take the twenty best 15 year olds in the country and put them on the same team, in the prime of their development, a number of guys are going to draw the short end of the stick as far as usage goes. Like if Bobby Brink played with that '01 group starting in his D-1 season, as opposed to playing Prep hockey and then starring with Sioux City the following year, I doubt he turns out to be the prospect that he is today.

Also, that team is drawing more amateur scouts than any other team in hockey. Not that hockey scouts don't do or think dumb shit, but these players get so much exposure, if they are truly high-end players, it's unlikely they are going to fall through the cracks quite like players in other leagues.

I was curious to see how the Russian version of a National Development Team turned out but that team got busted in the doping scandal and never even made it to u18s in their first year of existence and the program got scrapped shortly after that. I think the Slovaks scrapped theirs as well with pretty much nothing to show for it.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I think like the NCAA you need to see more noteworthy kids take that path & succeed to turn the tide more.

Like probably with guys like Eichel, Larkin, Hanifin, Werenski, etc. going the college route over the CHL then making the NHL as teenagers with some level success there has helped the NCAA win more noteworthy battles for American players as of late over the CHL.

I think if more non-NTDP players choose the USHL & have some success you’ll start seeing more maybe opting to pass up the NTDP & keeping their college eligibility.

 

[TB87]

I've found in my amateur research over the years that you're more likely to find an impact defenseman outside of the first round than an impact forward. The only "star" of that group is Fox and he had no business really going in the 3rd round.

There's a fairly stark difference between the terms hit rate and star. Hit rate, which you touched on and I issued my reply to, was essentially just seeing which players have legit NHL potential. Upside taken into account for the most part. Stars outside of the 1st Rd, from pretty much any league, isn't really a thing that occurs often.



If anyone is aware of the exact amount of stars that get drafted past the 1st RD, in any league, I'd love to see that data laid out for all of the following:
USNTDP, USHL, NCAA
OHL
QMJHL
WHL
SuperElit
Junior A-SM Liiga
Allsvenskan
SHL
SM-Liiga,
Czech ExtraLiga
DEL

etc.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

You almost have to count the USNTDP, USHL, & NCAA together given the structures of those leagues/entities compared to the CHL at least when comparing first time draft eligibles.

Depending if a guy is a first time eligible late birthday or not he could either count in the USNTDP/USHL grouping or the NCAA if not. It muddies the water a bit opposed to the CHL leagues where the guy is typically there for their 16-19 year old seasons.

 

[TB87]

You almost have to count the USNTDP, USHL, & NCAA together given the structures of those leagues/entities compared to the CHL at least when comparing first time draft eligibles.

*Fixed*

 

[denominator]

Also, that team is drawing more amateur scouts than any other team in hockey. Not that hockey scouts don't do or think dumb shit, but these players get so much exposure, if they are truly high-end players, it's unlikely they are going to fall through the cracks quite like players in other leagues.

This is an incredibly important and oft-overlooked statement.

The NDTP team, then the CHL and NCAA are over-scouted relative to all other leagues. It's abundantly clear to me in doing my consensus rankings every year that amateur scouts over-value the North American leagues, and under-value the European leagues (particularly the lower tier Euro leagues). Despite ending up with hundreds of undrafted CHL players leftover on my list every year, there are dozens of players from European or Russian leagues that I haven't heard of until draft day that get picked.

In my experience (take it for what it is, some dude that basically does meta-analysis on draft rankings); if you don't know what to do past round three, take a flier on a guy that your scout likes from Europe or Russia or wherever. These guys may bust out or never come over, but if they do they tend to be gems. The comparative North American players may end up in your system longer, but usually top out at career AHLer or NHL plug.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I still think there’s some nice value to be had in the USHL (non-USNTDP) with players amongst all the North American leagues. It’s probably still not scouted/valued enough compared to the others.

 

[FLYguy3911]

There's a fairly stark difference between the terms hit rate and star. Hit rate, which you touched on and I issued my reply to, was essentially just seeing which players have legit NHL potential. Upside taken into account for the most part. Stars outside of the 1st Rd, from pretty much any league, isn't really a thing that occurs often.

I understand the odds of finding a Star outside of the first round. I used the word "impact" for which I would describe as a top 6 F/Top 4 D. That's what every team should be shooting for and if you draft a player with that kind of potential and he doesn't meet it, you still may fall into an NHL player. I put "star" in quotes to emphasis that Fox was a homerun and a lot different from the rest. I'm not ready to anoint him a Star after one year but he's trending in that direction. The rest are still up in the air which is why you probably have to go back further than 2015. A 2015 draftee just played his age 22 year old season. Including Phil Kemp in a potential "hit" category doesn't sit well with me. If that guy is a regular NHLer, St. Ivany is a top 4 staple.

2014:
Bjork (5th round) - Fringey NHLer

2013:
Compher (35th overall) - Possession dragging 3rd liner
Motte (4th round) - Plays in the NHL
Butcher (4th round) - Top 4 caliber
Hayden (3rd round) - Plays in the NHL

2012:
Grzelcyk (3rd round) - Solid 3 pair D
Carrick (5th round) - Fringey NHLer

2011:
Grimaldi (33rd overall) - First full NHL season at age 26. Good year though.
Boyd (6th round) - Fringey NHLer

The two best players (arguably), spent all 4 years in college and Butcher walked in UFA. Motte, Hayden are NHLers in name only. Two of the better ones out of the NTDP, ironically, are Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano who went undrafted out of the program.

This doesn't mean that I won't want Powell or Berard on Draft day like I wanted Fensore last year. I just like to play the odds and the odds aren't exactly great.

This is an incredibly important and oft-overlooked statement.

The NDTP team, then the CHL and NCAA are over-scouted relative to all other leagues. It's abundantly clear to me in doing my consensus rankings every year that amateur scouts over-value the North American leagues, and under-value the European leagues (particularly the lower tier Euro leagues). Despite ending up with hundreds of undrafted CHL players leftover on my list every year, there are dozens of players from European or Russian leagues that I haven't heard of until draft day that get picked.

In my experience (take it for what it is, some dude that basically does meta-analysis on draft rankings); if you don't know what to do past round three, take a flier on a guy that your scout likes from Europe or Russia or wherever. These guys may bust out or never come over, but if they do they tend to be gems. The comparative North American players may end up in your system longer, but usually top out at career AHLer or NHL plug.

I wouldn't have a hard or fast rule or anything, but there is a certain point with each league that historically the ROI isn't worth it. After the ~4th round for CHL players it doesn't seem worth it. That said there will probably be a CHL defenseman or two that I'll want the Flyers to draft in the 5th or 6th round. Emphasis on defenseman since that is generally where the value is (said by a fan of the team that signed Phil Myers and Egor Zamula as UDFAs).

Also, CHL players only have a two year window to sign. Most Europeans have a 4 year window or even indefinite windows in the case of Russian players. Basic investment strategy suggests that the riskier the investment, the more time it needs to "mature" to see the best ROI. There is more runway to not only make a decision on signing a player, but to also allow that player to develop in their ideal environment.

 

[TB87]

As I always say, the Flyers should pick only the good players and none of the bad players.

BPA, even though I'm fairly sure team's don't operate according to this principal very often. The needs of today aren't necessarily the needs of tomorrow.

 

[IronMarshal]

Do you all think Luke Tuch is a worthy trade-up candidate for the flyers in the 2nd round? Has some raw talent.

Should’t have to move up if you want Tuch. He is not his brother.

 

[Ja Sports]

Finally finished the Jack Quinn hype reel let me know what you guys think

Purest goal scorer in the draft IMO

 

[Rebels57]

Finally finished the Jack Quinn hype reel let me know what you guys think

Purest goal scorer in the draft IMO

Damn he is slippery.

 

[denominator]

I understand the odds of finding a Star outside of the first round. I used the word "impact" for which I would describe as a top 6 F/Top 4 D. That's what every team should be shooting for and if you draft a player with that kind of potential and he doesn't meet it, you still may fall into an NHL player. I put "star" in quotes to emphasis that Fox was a homerun and a lot different from the rest. I'm not ready to anoint him a Star after one year but he's trending in that direction. The rest are still up in the air which is why you probably have to go back further than 2015. A 2015 draftee just played his age 22 year old season. Including Phil Kemp in a potential "hit" category doesn't sit well with me. If that guy is a regular NHLer, St. Ivany is a top 4 staple.

2014:
Bjork (5th round) - Fringey NHLer

2013:
Compher (35th overall) - Possession dragging 3rd liner
Motte (4th round) - Plays in the NHL
Butcher (4th round) - Top 4 caliber
Hayden (3rd round) - Plays in the NHL

2012:
Grzelcyk (3rd round) - Solid 3 pair D
Carrick (5th round) - Fringey NHLer

2011:
Grimaldi (33rd overall) - First full NHL season at age 26. Good year though.
Boyd (6th round) - Fringey NHLer

The two best players (arguably), spent all 4 years in college and Butcher walked in UFA. Motte, Hayden are NHLers in name only. Two of the better ones out of the NTDP, ironically, are Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano who went undrafted out of the program.

This doesn't mean that I won't want Powell or Berard on Draft day like I wanted Fensore last year. I just like to play the odds and the odds aren't exactly great.


I wouldn't have a hard or fast rule or anything, but there is a certain point with each league that historically the ROI isn't worth it. After the ~4th round for CHL players it doesn't seem worth it. That said there will probably be a CHL defenseman or two that I'll want the Flyers to draft in the 5th or 6th round. Emphasis on defenseman since that is generally where the value is (said by a fan of the team that signed Phil Myers and Egor Zamula as UDFAs).

Also, CHL players only have a two year window to sign. Most Europeans have a 4 year window or even indefinite windows in the case of Russian players. Basic investment strategy suggests that the riskier the investment, the more time it needs to "mature" to see the best ROI. There is more runway to not only make a decision on signing a player, but to also allow that player to develop in their ideal environment.

Good points.

It's also interesting to note some of the names that keep kicking around as the outliers (in the good direction) in this discussion.

Adam Fox had a bunch of [scare quotes]RED FLAGS[/end scare quotes] going in to the draft. There was a lot of discussion of if/where he would sign or if we had a Jimmy Vesey 2.0 on our hands. He was traded twice before appearing in the NHL, at least in part due to his refusal to sign with the teams that held his rights.

Yegor Zamula is another interesting case; and a good case study for import players in the CHL in general. Most North American players of a certain calibre can and will make the CHL, and with the right support, develop to their potential. Import players are further subjected to learning new game styles, a new language, and often come over at an odd point in their development. They're also usually plugged in down the lineup, often behind 20-year old undrafted players for their first CHL year (which is quite often their draft year). These guys are usually better than they appear in their draft year while they adjust to North America and earn their coaches' trust.

TL;DR

It's better to draft the potential you don't know than the floor you scouted well.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Yegor Zamula is another interesting case; and a good case study for import players in the CHL in general. Most North American players of a certain calibre can and will make the CHL, and with the right support, develop to their potential. Import players are further subjected to learning new game styles, a new language, and often come over at an odd point in their development. They're also usually plugged in down the lineup, often behind 20-year old undrafted players for their first CHL year (which is quite often their draft year). These guys are usually better than they appear in their draft year while they adjust to North America and earn their coaches' trust.

TL;DR

It's better to draft the potential you don't know than the floor you scouted well.

Provided they did not play in one of the other top junior leagues in the world (MHL, USHL, SuperElit, Jr. A SM-liiga) the season prior, Draft-eligible CHL rookies quite often outperform their draft position. 1) It's a tough adjustment. Zamula went from playing against 15 and 16 year olds in his D-1, to playing against 18, 19, and 20 year olds in a faster pace game, in a new country. It's a big jump. 2) It's hard to make an immediate impact and produce to the level that will get you noticed above other prospects. You likely aren't getting prime usage out of the gate. A first year CHL forward scoring at a PPG is not common and pretty impressive. Likewise a defenseman scoring at .5 PPG is quite impressive under the same circumstances. Zamula also got buried on that Regina team that hosted the Mem Cup.

Similarly, I've seen people knock Brisson because he's a late 01 who played for that Powerhouse Chicago team. Second in USHL scoring as a first year junior player is no joke. Tied the All-time points record at the WJAC too.

I can't explain Phil Myers other than he is a freak athlete. Flunked the statistical test with flying colors - 12 points in 106 CHL games prior to his draft. Oldest in his age group (January birthday).

 

[Appleyard]

Zamula produced in a range that should have meant he was drafted really. Over 0.20 non-PP P/GP while playing 3rd pairing most of the season... given his physical tools even then, and then playing pretty well at the WJC u-18's, it is a surprise no one drafted him.

 

[TB87]

Mitchell Miller (RHD) of the USHL’s Tri-City Storm is an intriguing player. I’ve liked him more and more with each viewing. Great short area & long distance speed. Strong on his skates. Polished defensively with a quick stick, tight gap, & aggressively attacks his checks when they try to gain entry into OZ. Proactive defender. Dictates play. I like his game a great deal.

 

[Starat327]

Mitchell Miller (RHD) of the USHL’s Tri-City Storm is an intriguing player. I’ve liked him more and more with each viewing. Great short area & long distance speed. Strong on his skates. Polished defensively with a quick stick, tight gap, & aggressively attacks his checks when they try to gain entry into OZ. Proactive defender. Dictates play. I like his game a great deal.

Sounds like hes no Adam Ginning, but I guess he'd do in a pinch.

 

[TB87]

Sounds like hes no Adam Ginning, but I guess he'd do in a pinch.

That man mountain has no equal

 

[FLYguy3911]

Sounds like hes no Adam Ginning, but I guess he'd do in a pinch.

Not so fast. Tons of international experience.

 

[Larry44]

Damn he is slippery.

So slippery he’ll slip away from the Flyers!