Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft - part II

[Bleedred]

Advanced Stats GM pioneer. Genius. Visionary. HFboards' darling for years.

You can laugh at advanced stats all you want, but the reason that Chayka’s teams are bad isn’t because advanced stats is bullshit. They’re bad teams because they’re also bad at these advanced stats for the most part.

They have a significantly negative shot differential almost every year he’s been there (it’s not quite as bad this year) and they aren’t a good possession team. He’s a poor representation of the analytics movement, because his teams haven’t been good analytically. If you’re looking towards him to be some kind of guru for advanced stats then you have been snowed by this fraud.

That and he hires Dick head coaches like Tocchet and MacLean.

 

[JrFischer54]

It wasn't quite impossible for people to consider. You just kept insisting it was written in stone that we'd lose the pick if Arizona's pick won the lottery.

And everyone was insisting it was written in stone that we would get it even if the yotes won the new lottery

 

[JrFischer54]

That would be a condition I would have a real question about. It kicks in with a first-round win but I don't think anyone was counting on some 9 vs. 24 mini-series playin as the first-round (if that's what it winds up being). Maybe they'll pull an NCAA basketball and call it the play-in round to avoid changing the trade conditions for that and other similar deals?

Lol that’s the condition you call into question? But not the 1-3 protection on a draft style that isn’t even happening anymore lol. Hf never lets me down

 

[NJDevs26]

Expanding and thus changing the playoff system fundamentally changes the meaning and difficulty of a first round win. Changing the lottery doesn’t change a draft spot position, which is what was specified.

The only argument for your POV is this projection that the condition of a top three pick is written as lottery win when there’s no reason for it to be written that way. If it’s written as lottery win then I’d agree, but there’s no reason for a lottery win to be specified in the trade conditions, when position itself already is.

 

[OmNomNom]

if all that was written was a top 3 pick being the condition, then that's that, and we have their pick regardless. it's a legal paper and verbiage should matter. now if fitz wants to renegotiate, that's a diff story

 

[NJDevs26]

if all that was written was a top 3 pick being the condition, then that's that, and we have their pick regardless. it's a legal paper and verbiage should matter. now if fitz wants to renegotiate, that's a diff story

Plus you think Arizona wouldn’t like to get out of the danger of giving up an unprotected pick next year? I’m sure they’d be okay with a slight chance of losing a #6 and more likely losing #10 or higher rather than rolling the dice next year and/or having a traditional lottery this year.

I think both teams would be fine with them giving up the pick now tbh, it’s like a game of 21 where you’re right in the middle of where staying pat or drawing another card would be the best move.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Hall has played a fare share of games. There not winning the lottery, actually they’ll probably make the playoffs if the season isn’t canceled due too an expansion of teams making the playoffs. I want that pick, it’s ours.

 

[OmNomNom]

that's all not to say i don't get your logic, @JrFischer54, but I personally don't see it working against us (even though stuff like that would happen to us)

 

[KinCornKarn]

if all that was written was a top 3 pick being the condition, then that's that, and we have their pick regardless. it's a legal paper and verbiage should matter. now if fitz wants to renegotiate, that's a diff story

Usually verbiage is everything but I would argue intent matters more in this case. The agreement between the two teams was Arizona would give New Jersey their first round pick this year if it was #4 onward. It is fair to say that this was the understanding of the deal. Arizona was prepared to trade pick #4 or #5 if that's how it played out. I would like to see anyone prove otherwise. They accepted that risk. The moment the deal was made NJ had the right to the #4 pick and down.

Not saying this is how it will turn out but that is how I would argue it.

 

[JrFischer54]

Usually verbiage is everything but I would argue intent matters more in this case. The agreement between the two teams was Arizona would give New Jersey their first round pick this year if it was #4 onward. It is fair to say that this was the understanding of the deal. Arizona was prepared to trade pick #4 or #5 if that's how it played out. I would like to see anyone prove otherwise. They accepted that risk. The moment the deal was made NJ had the right to the #4 pick and down.

Not saying this is how it will turn out but that is how I would argue it.

I agree completely. I just think they put that condition in because they could in theory win 1-3 (which is a lottery win) and keep their pick. Now that ability is gone and they have no ability to win 1-3 and keep their pick. So if they “win” the new format they have to lose their pick?

 

[KinCornKarn]

I agree completely. I just think they put that condition in because they could in theory win 1-3 (which is a lottery win) and keep their pick. Now that ability is gone and they have no ability to win 1-3 and keep their pick. So if they “win” the new format they have to lose their pick?

It is hard to say what they will do if it comes to that but speculating is all we can do for now. It would be even more interesting if the coyotes ended up finishing with the second worst record and Detroit won the lottery. Could NJ then argue that since technically Arizona did not win any lottery they get the pick? That would be a lot of fun.

 

[OmNomNom]

It is hard to say what they will do if it comes to that but speculating is all we can do for now. It would be even more interesting if the coyotes ended up finishing with the second worst record and Detroit won the lottery. Could NJ then argue that since technically Arizona did not win any lottery they get the pick? That would be a lot of fun.

didn't even think of that, i would love me some drama hahaha

 

[NJDevs26]

It is hard to say what they will do if it comes to that but speculating is all we can do for now. It would be even more interesting if the coyotes ended up finishing with the second worst record and Detroit won the lottery. Could NJ then argue that since technically Arizona did not win any lottery they get the pick? That would be a lot of fun.

This is pretty much the reverse hypothesis I posted in the other thread and why the condition would never be stated as lottery win as opposed to top whatever pick.

Now would I put it past the NHL to have some galaxy brain argument and say we can’t complete the regular season and theoretically the Yotes could have gotten to bottom three with a lottery win if we had so the condition is automatically pushed back a year? No, but that’s because the NHL likes to complicate easy matters and annoy everyone.

 

[JrFischer54]

This is pretty much the reverse hypothesis I posted in the other thread and why the condition would never be stated as lottery win as opposed to top whatever pick.

Now would I put it past the NHL to have some galaxy brain argument and say we can’t complete the regular season and theoretically the Yotes could have gotten to bottom three with a lottery win if we had so the condition is automatically pushed back a year? No, but that’s because the NHL likes to complicate easy matters and annoy everyone.

it will never be lottery win because there are 3 spots up for grabs. If it was 5 spots up for grabs in the lotto the language would read top 5 protected.

 

[None Shall Pass]

If the Coyotes win the new lottery, the best they can do is 3rd overall, right?

Seems like they’d love this change. They could theoretically get 1st or 2nd overall next year but not this one.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Larry Brooks is hearing that it most likely will be a 24 team playoff format. That means both the Nucks and Coyotes are in, which is a good thing for the Devils if Brooks is right.

 

[FooteBahl]

Larry Brooks is hearing that it most likely will be a 24 team playoff format. That means both the Nucks and Coyotes are in, which is a good thing for the Devils if Brooks is right.

Then we root for a Coyotes playoff win and Hall resigning right? But who knows if they’ll renegotiate the conditions on that pick.

 

[JrFischer54]

Then we root for a Coyotes playoff win and Hall resigning right? But who knows if they’ll renegotiate the conditions on that pick.

If they win this years pick gets worse

 

[Quest for Stanley]

Since 2012 the NJ Devils have drafted 37 Forwards.

11 of the 37 have played at least 10 regular season games with New Jersey.

Below is a summary of their point production per 60 minutes ice time:

1. Nico Hischier 2.23 (135/60.57)
2. Jesper Bratt 2.19 (100/45.68)
3. Miles Wood 1.65 (96/58.23)
4. Pavel Zacha 1.60 (108/67.47)
5. Brett Seney 1.43 (13/9.12)
6. Jack Hughes 1.30 (21/16.13)
7. Joey Anderson 1.15 (13/11.28)
8. Michael McLeod 0.79 (5/6.32)
9. John Quenneville 0.74 (5/6.76)
10. Stefan Matteau 0.68 (5/7.35)
11. Jesper Boqvist 0.63 (4/6.38)

NOTE: A big drop off after #7 (Anderson)

 

[TBF1972]

Expanding and thus changing the playoff system fundamentally changes the meaning and difficulty of a first round win. Changing the lottery doesn’t change a draft spot position, which is what was specified.

The wording top three protected was at the time of the Hall trade equal to Phoenix being in the lottery and winning one of the top three picks. Neither of us participated in the trade negotiation. So we can't say for sure, what Shero and Chayka were talking about.

 

[TBF1972]

Larry Brooks is hearing that it most likely will be a 24 team playoff format. That means both the Nucks and Coyotes are in, which is a good thing for the Devils if Brooks is right.

So the best case scenario would be:
All teams participate in the lottery for the top 4 picks and NJ wins the first or second pick, Phoenix wins the 4th pick and Vancouver wins the first or second pick.
NJ keeps its own pick, gets pick #4 from Vancouver (top 3 protected) and the Vancouver pick (protected for the case of not making the playoffs.
NJ picks first, second and fourth. (approved)

 

[McDuffz88]

So the best case scenario would be:
All teams participate in the lottery for the top 4 picks and NJ wins the first or second pick, Phoenix wins the 4th pick and Vancouver wins the first or second pick.
NJ keeps its own pick, gets pick #4 from Vancouver (top 3 protected) and the Vancouver pick (protected for the case of not making the playoffs.
NJ picks first, second and fourth. (approved)

It's not possible for the devil's to pick 1st 2nd and 4th.

 

[NJDevs26]

If they win this years pick gets worse

It does, but the extra 3 we get from them would become a 2 so it's a tradeoff at best.

The wording top three protected was at the time of the Hall trade equal to Phoenix being in the lottery and winning one of the top three picks. Neither of us participated in the trade negotiation. So we can't say for sure, what Shero and Chayka were talking about.

Lottery win only needed to be implied because that's what it would have taken to get a top three pick. It wouldn't have been specified that way on the 0.001 percent chance the NHL changed the system in-season. I'm not even sure the Coyotes would contest giving up a #6-10 pick this year anyway.

 

[McDuffz88]

It does, but the extra 3 we get from them would become a 2 so it's a tradeoff at best.



Lottery win only needed to be implied because that's what it would have taken to get a top three pick. It wouldn't have been specified that way on the 0.001 percent chance the NHL changed the system in-season. I'm not even sure the Coyotes would contest giving up a #6-10 pick this year anyway.

From the devil's point of view they can argue that Arizona had no problem giving away the pick if it was 4 or greater. After all if the season went on whats stopping Arizona from continuing to fall off a cliff dropping even further in the rankings? They were spiraling out of control & if the season continued we were gonna surpass them. They were only 6 points ahead of us & that's with them playing an extra game. Arizona would of finished lower then 10 in my opinion.

 

[Call Me Al]

there’s no basis for assuming the details of the trade will specifically be of they win the lotto. here is the language from nhl.com:

“If Arizona's first-round selection in the 2020 draft is in the top three, the Devils will receive the Coyotes' first-round pick in the 2021 draft. The third-round pick in the 2021 draft will become a second-round pick if Arizona wins a round in the playoffs or Hall re-signs, and it will become a first-round pick if the Coyotes win a round in the playoffs and Hall re-signs.”

this entire argument is based projecting terms that aren’t there and no legal contract like this would err on the side of ambiguity when the wording is specific. i certainly wouldn’t die on that hill or argue with every poster that doesn’t agree with that assumption