2020 NHL Draft: Fisher’s First Round Mock Scenarios

[Larry Fisher]

Ryan Suter's days are numbered? He's signed for 5 more years, is still playing at a high level, and has Jonas Brodin backing him up. Carson Soucy also had a breakout year.

Meanwhile, Koivu is done, Staal is fading and likely done at the end of his contract (next year), and they have NO top 6 C replacements! JEE is a #3C... a real stretch at #2C. Khovanov was really good-in Junior.

It's very simple. Wild need C's.

By the time Sanderson develops for a couple years at North Dakota, Suter would be slowing down and it would be awfully nice to have that successor ready to step in. Sanderson's ceiling is higher than Brodin. I don't think you would be disappointed with Sanderson.

But if it's centres the Wild want and need, then you got them in mock 1.1 and mock 2.1 ... and stay tuned for the rest of the series!

 

[57special]

Brodin's ceiling was higher than Brodin's reality, but that's why they call them ceilings. Having said that, he just scored 28 points in a shortened season with no PP time. If a team picks Sanderson and gets a Brodin clone' then they should be very happy.
I would bet that Sanderson gets a tad more offense, and less defense. I don't see Brodin's poise or feet in the D zone.

 

[emptyNedder]

Larry. Thanks for giving us something (almost daily) to discuss, dispute, and generally just divert us. It is much appreciated and needed right now.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Brodin's ceiling was higher than Brodin's reality, but that's why they call them ceilings. Having said that, he just scored 28 points in a shortened season with no PP time. If a team picks Sanderson and gets a Brodin clone' then they should be very happy.
I would bet that Sanderson gets a tad more offense, and less defense. I don't see Brodin's poise or feet in the D zone.

Glitched, repeat reply.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Brodin's ceiling was higher than Brodin's reality, but that's why they call them ceilings. Having said that, he just scored 28 points in a shortened season with no PP time. If a team picks Sanderson and gets a Brodin clone' then they should be very happy.
I would bet that Sanderson gets a tad more offense, and less defense. I don't see Brodin's poise or feet in the D zone.

A Brodin clone? Think more along the lines of a Duncan Keith clone. Sanderson's feet are what has him closing the gap and challenging Drysdale in the minds of some scouts. He is very fleet of foot and skating is one of Sanderson's biggest strengths — just like his dad Geoff.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Larry. Thanks for giving us something (almost daily) to discuss, dispute, and generally just divert us. It is much appreciated and needed right now.

You are most welcome, thanks for reading and following along. Unfortunately, I have to do some non-hockey/non-sports writing over the next few weeks for a side hustle project, but I'll be back to continue this series before long.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

A Brodin clone? Think more along the lines of a Duncan Keith clone. Sanderson's feet are what has him closing the gap and challenging Drysdale in the minds of some scouts. He is very fleet of foot with skating being one of Sanderson's biggest strengths — just like his dad Geoff.

You have him ranked 15th, but think he's a Duncan Keith clone? Keith was a top-100 player of all-time.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Mock 4 delivered a dream scenario for the Senators, but several teams would be stoked with these results from the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-4/

Mocks 5-10+ to follow in the weeks to come. Do you have a favourite among the first four? Is one more realistic than the others? Personally, I’m a big fan of Mock 4 for the most part and feel it might be my best effort thus far.

 

[Larry Fisher]

You have him ranked 15th, but think he's a Duncan Keith clone? Keith was a top-100 player of all-time.

Keith was also a second-round pick, 54th overall. Stylistically, that is the comparison I'm using for Sanderson. He might be a poor man's Keith in reality, but I think he'll be better than Brodin. Time will tell.

Sanderson only cracked the top 10 in three of these 10 scenarios, but based on the momentum he has been gaining since this series started (including his Central Scouting ranking), I have a hard time seeing Sanderson getting out of the top 10 for Minnesota to take at 11. That might be wishful thinking now. I'm starting to think other teams like Anaheim and New Jersey could take Sanderson earlier than anticipated (besides just Chicago). That will be reflected in future mocks (along with Stutzle being consensus top five, he was top five in 7 of 10) when I do full first rounds, 1-31, following the completion of these 10 scenarios. Stay tuned!

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Mock 4 delivered a dream scenario for the Senators, but several teams would be stoked with these results from the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-4/

Mocks 5-10+ to follow in the weeks to come. Do you have a favourite among the first four? Is one more realistic than the others? Personally, I’m a big fan of Mock 4 for the most part and feel it might be my best effort thus far.

Definitely have to agree with that. Imagine being a GM from another team watching the Ottawa Senators get Lafreniere, Byfield and Askarov

Pretty hard to pass on Askarov there.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Mock 5 features a handful of new names in the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft, with many teams getting their intended targets but Columbus and Anaheim emerging as the early winners, while Ottawa would likely be declared a loser in this scenario: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-5/

 

[themelkman]

Youve got a lot of reaches in this one. I dont see any way teams like the sharks or caps reach for guys when Mercer and Lapeirre are on the board

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Mock 5 features a handful of new names in the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft, with many teams getting their intended targets but Columbus and Anaheim emerging as the early winners, while Ottawa would likely be declared a loser in this scenario: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-5/

Can't come out as winners all the time. I would like to see the process to put this order together

 

[emptyNedder]

I have heard several people compare our Covid routines to "Groundhog Day." We should appreciate Larry's efforts to change things up even if they aren't likely.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Youve got a lot of reaches in this one. I dont see any way teams like the sharks or caps reach for guys when Mercer and Lapeirre are on the board

Expect the unexpected in 2020. This draft will be full of surprises in the first round. Even in 2019, if I told you both Kaliyev and Lavoie would fall to the second round, you would have never believed me. That is comparable to Mercer and Lapierre in 2020 in my opinion. I think there are at least 50 players who could go in the top 31. Which means 10+ of the "expected" first-rounders could fall into the second round. These mock scenarios are helping to illustrate that and I don't think they are too farfetched.

 

[themelkman]

Expect the unexpected in 2020. This draft will be full of surprises in the first round. Even in 2019, if I told you both Kaliyev and Lavoie would fall to the second round, you would have never believed me. That is comparable to Mercer and Lapierre in 2020 in my opinion. I think there are at least 50 players who could go in the top 31. Which means 10+ of the "expected" first-rounders could fall into the second round. These mock scenarios are helping to illustrate that and I don't think they are too farfetched.

Hey man I hope to see surprises. Its just very hard to predict what teams scouting departments will like I guess. Common Knowledge rarely prevails

 

[NHL Dude 120]

Im kinda surprised you have the sens passing on Stutzle i dont see him slipping past the sens in any way. Personally if Hendricks were available in the 2nd round the sens should scoop him up asap.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Im kinda surprised you have the sens passing on Stutzle i dont see him slipping past the sens in any way. Personally if Hendricks were available in the 2nd round the sens should scoop him up asap.

Yeah, those top 10 scenarios were done a month ago. If you look back, I noted that I’ve since been tipped off to the Sens interest in Stutzle, which could/would change those top 10s for future mocks. Stutzle going in the top five and Sanderson going in the top 10 (closer to top five than out of top 10) are the trends since those scenarios published and will be reflected in my mocks to come following these initial 10.

I also don’t think Lapierre makes it out of the first round, but stranger things have happened. The Senators took him at 21 in mock 1.1, which is more plausible than getting him in the second round, but anything is possible this year.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Mock 6 shook things up with a couple surprising reaches from Columbus and San Jose, while Dallas and Washington would be among the happiest teams with their selections in this scenario for the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-mock-scenarios-6-1/

 

[themelkman]

Im pretty sure we could wait till the end of the second and get Finley, but he is an interesting prospect

 

[emptyNedder]

Thanks for something new to discuss. Likely most will think both Foudy and Finley are too high. Though both have one thing that sets them apart (speed and size respectively) while having decent skills. So not totally unreasonable.

What I find most interesting (though also quite likely due to the shortened scouting for this draft) is that several top Europeans are absent: Peterka, Reichel, Hirvonen, Khusnutdinov. Some teams may think the better know North Americans like Foudy are safer in the first.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Im pretty sure we could wait till the end of the second and get Finley, but he is an interesting prospect

Maybe, but Finley is one of those prospects that a team could reach for as a first-round surprise. I have him ranked in the 70s as a second-round candidate (in my third-round range) but I wouldn't be shocked if somebody took him much higher.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Thanks for something new to discuss. Likely most will think both Foudy and Finley are too high. Though both have one thing that sets them apart (speed and size respectively) while having decent skills. So not totally unreasonable.

What I find most interesting (though also quite likely due to the shortened scouting for this draft) is that several top Europeans are absent: Peterka, Reichel, Hirvonen, Khusnutdinov. Some teams may think the better know North Americans like Foudy are safer in the first.

Yeah, it varies from one scenario to the next — as you know from following along. I'm trying to present 10 different scenarios to maintain the interest of the series but also to reflect realistic possibilities. Yes, Foudy and Finley are long shots for the first round, but it isn't totally out of the realm of possibility. So I'm trying to throw in a surprise or two with every mock — four more to come, then I'll be onto my seven-round mocks (personal and consensus). If the draft is June 5, I might not be able to provide much analysis due to time constraints, but I'll do my best!

 

[NHL Dude 120]

What's happened with Jack Quinn? I mean if the sens could have kept picks 2 and 3 Byfield-Stutzle and Quinn would be an absolute juggernaut. Plus if we could somehow get Lapierre I think we are laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[Larry Fisher]

What's happened with Jack Quinn? I mean if the sens could have kept picks 2 and 3 Byfield-Stutzle and Quinn would be an absolute juggernaut. Plus if we could somehow get Lapierre I think we are laughing all the way to the bank.

Quinn and Lapierre could go anywhere from 9-20 IMO, with Lapierre potentially falling further due to injury concerns. But, yes, if one of them or Askarov lasts until Ottawa’s third pick, that would make for a phenomenal first round.