2020 NHL Draft: Fisher’s First Round Mock Scenarios

[Larry Fisher]

Continuing my mock series with first round scenarios — making selections from 11-31 — the Rangers, Stars, Jets and Golden Knights, among others, would be thrilled with these results for the 2020 NHL Draft: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-1/

These mocks will be publishing regularly and I’ll keep them all to one thread with the running list here:

Mock 2.1: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-2/
Mock 3.1: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-3/
Mock 4.1: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-4/
Mock 5.1: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-5/
Mock 6.1: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-mock-scenarios-6-1/
Mock 7.1: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-7/
Mock 8.1: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-8/
Mock 9.1: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-9/
Mock 10.1: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-10/

Reviewing First Round for Teams: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-reviewing-first-round-scenarios-for-teams/
Reviewing First Round for Prospects: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-reviewing-first-round-scenarios-for-prospects/

Feedback is welcomed, as always.

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[GoldiFox]

Not a fan of Foerster to the Canes at #19. He'd be a good pickup at #44 if he was there. In this mock I'd take any of Holloway, Mysak, Nybeck, Reichel, or Hirvonen before him.

I enjoyed the write ups though, as always!

 

[Static]

I think Anaheim will look at defense with one of its first two picks, 31 moreso since only Drysdale is worth a type 5 pick (that we think right now).

Thanks for the work, love your stuff!

 

[Larry Fisher]

Not a fan of Foerster to the Canes at #19. He'd be a good pickup at #44 if he was there. In this mock I'd take any of Holloway, Mysak, Nybeck, Reichel, or Hirvonen before him.

I enjoyed the write ups though, as always!

Noted for future mocks, I have a few banked already, might publish another one on Monday or make it a Saturday tradition, to be determined. Stay tuned!

As for Foerster, the more I watch him, the more he reminds me of Nolan Foote but Foerster seems to be better/more dangerous off the rush at even strength. At 19, he is a reach (similar to Liam Foudy in his draft year), but I think Foerster is a legit scorer and every team needs goals. Therefore, I have a feeling he finds his way into the first round (as Foote did).

 

[Larry Fisher]

I think Anaheim will look at defense with one of its first two picks, 31 moreso since only Drysdale is worth a type 5 pick (that we think right now).

Thanks for the work, love your stuff!

You are probably right, with 10-plus mocks to come, I do expect defence to be the popular pick for the Ducks at 31.

 

[GoldiFox]

Noted for future mocks, I have a few banked already, might publish another one on Monday or make it a Saturday tradition, to be determined. Stay tuned!

As for Foerster, the more I watch him, the more he reminds me of Nolan Foote but Foerster seems to be better/more dangerous off the rush at even strength. At 19, he is a reach (similar to Liam Foudy in his draft year), but I think Foerster is a legit scorer and every team needs goals. Therefore, I have a feeling he finds his way into the first round (as Foote did).

Foerster is an interesting case. As you noted, having 33 points and 16 goals higher than the 2nd place scorer on Barrie puts him in a weird statistical place to analyze. Clearly he was the best player on a bad team, how many points would he have playing with a great playmaker? Suzuki jumped from ~1 ppg to ~1.5 ppg moving to a strong team. Foerster might be a top-10 lock if he had done the same and scored 100 points this year. Surely the Canes have been watching plenty of Barrie as you mention with Suzuki and Svech,

 

[themelkman]

I like the sharks pick at 28, however I have a gut feeling they would go for one of the germans there

 

[thestonedkoala]

Uh, does Pittsburgh keep their pick this year? They haven't really resolved that.

 

[Daximus]

As a Jets fan I'd prefer Zary over Sanderson. With the Samberg signing we are absolutely stocked on LD. We need centers badly. Zary is the best one left on the board in my eyes.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Can't see the hawks taking a goalie that high. But well done none the less.

 

[Puckclektr]

Foerster is an interesting case. As you noted, having 33 points and 16 goals higher than the 2nd place scorer on Barrie puts him in a weird statistical place to analyze. Clearly he was the best player on a bad team, how many points would he have playing with a great playmaker? Suzuki jumped from ~1 ppg to ~1.5 ppg moving to a strong team. Foerster might be a top-10 lock if he had done the same and scored 100 points this year. Surely the Canes have been watching plenty of Barrie as you mention with Suzuki and Svech,

Your underestimating his playmakimg abilities. Although he has a great shot he is a better playmaker IMO

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I was going to say I would prefer if the Sens picked either Holloway , who we have discussed before or Schneider there. But thinking about swinging for the fences with Lapierre there I kind of like it. If he can completely recover it could be a hell of a pick there. Not sure if I had to walk up there and call his name I'd do it but I like the notion in this mock draft.

 

[AW8]

Sens- as an Avs fan Lapierre is who I hoped the Avs picked tbh. Avs are in a good swing for the fences high risk high reward position.
That being said Lapierre makes sense kinda for Ottawa since the already got two very high picks.

 

[landy92mack29]

There's no way imo Guhle or Schneider will make it past 20 let alone that late and there's bound to be s swedish dman who goes in the 1st.

 

[Rick C137]

I just don’t see Chicago taking a goalie. They haven’t drafted a goalie in the top 50 picks since 2001 when they took Munro in the first and he busted. I don’t think it’s in their philosophy to draft a goalie that high and with good reason. Someone might bite on Askarov in the top 10, it’s more than likely not gonna be the hawks though.

Good write up though.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Foerster is an interesting case. As you noted, having 33 points and 16 goals higher than the 2nd place scorer on Barrie puts him in a weird statistical place to analyze. Clearly he was the best player on a bad team, how many points would he have playing with a great playmaker? Suzuki jumped from ~1 ppg to ~1.5 ppg moving to a strong team. Foerster might be a top-10 lock if he had done the same and scored 100 points this year. Surely the Canes have been watching plenty of Barrie as you mention with Suzuki and Svech,

Yeah, Foerster really surged in the second half, building on his momentum from the CHL Top Prospects Game and relishing his chance to be Barrie's go-to guy. He could have faded once Suzuki and others were traded away, but Foerster came on stronger and won over a lot of doubters (including myself, to some degree). That showed his ability to be a driver and also displayed his character. NHL teams will be impressed by the way he finished off. I agree that 19 still seems a bit high, but he'll be a riser.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I like the sharks pick at 28, however I have a gut feeling they would go for one of the germans there

I could totally see a German to San Jose, that thought certainly crossed my mind and you might see one or both of them becoming Sharks in the mocks to come.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Uh, does Pittsburgh keep their pick this year? They haven't really resolved that.

That is to be determined, along with Vancouver's pick and the draft order/lottery process in general. I noted all that in the intro, but gave Pittsburgh and Vancouver their picks back for the sake of getting more teams involved in these mocks and based on the expectation that those picks will be deferred to 2021 unless the season resumes.

 

[Larry Fisher]

As a Jets fan I'd prefer Zary over Sanderson. With the Samberg signing we are absolutely stocked on LD. We need centers badly. Zary is the best one left on the board in my eyes.

Interesting, I know the Jets love their WHL prospects, so I could totally see that — and you might see it in the mocks to come — but Sanderson would be tough to pass on. He has a ton of momentum in scouting circles right now and could crack the top 10, perhaps even the top five on draft day. Sanderson might be seen as a steal at 12.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Can't see the hawks taking a goalie that high. But well done none the less.

Thanks, Askarov is the biggest wild card in these mocks. It is a real guessing game where he could go, but I don't think Chicago is a bad guess. That said, I only guessed Chicago once over those 10 mocks, so I'm not confident it is a good guess either.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Your underestimating his playmakimg abilities. Although he has a great shot he is a better playmaker IMO

I see him as a shooter first and foremost, but his all-around game was impressive as a go-to guy. Like I said, he won over a lot of scouts in the second half and nobody should be surprised to see Foerster as a first-rounder. Hoping for him at 44 is probably wishful thinking.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I was going to say I would prefer if the Sens picked either Holloway , who we have discussed before or Schneider there. But thinking about swinging for the fences with Lapierre there I kind of like it. If he can completely recover it could be a hell of a pick there. Not sure if I had to walk up there and call his name I'd do it but I like the notion in this mock draft.

Thanks, there will be several different options for the Sens at that spot — and several different selections in the mocks to come. When I saw Lapierre sitting there, he jumped out at me, but totally understandable that Holloway and Schneider stand out as quality options too. And I know what you are saying about calling out Lapierre's name, but it is easier to take him with two other top-five prospects already added to the stable. Other teams will pass on Lapierre with their first and only selections in the top 31, which could work in Ottawa's favour — providing he overcomes these concussions and returns to that Hlinka form.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Sens- as an Avs fan Lapierre is who I hoped the Avs picked tbh. Avs are in a good swing for the fences high risk high reward position.
That being said Lapierre makes sense kinda for Ottawa since the already got two very high picks.

My thoughts exactly, both on the Sens and the Avs.

 

[Larry Fisher]

There's no way imo Guhle or Schneider will make it past 20 let alone that late and there's bound to be s swedish dman who goes in the 1st.

That is certainly one of the takeaways from this scenario, surprising lack of defencemen in the top 20 and the first round in general (only six in the top 31). That could happen, I wouldn't rule it out, but there will be more taken in the mocks to come — including some Swedes and higher positions for the Dub defenders. I have a few scenarios banked already, so I can say that confidently haha.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I just don’t see Chicago taking a goalie. They haven’t drafted a goalie in the top 50 picks since 2001 when they took Munro in the first and he busted. I don’t think it’s in their philosophy to draft a goalie that high and with good reason. Someone might bite on Askarov in the top 10, it’s more than likely not gonna be the hawks though.

Good write up though.

Thanks, I covered the top 10 in mock 1.0 with my analysis on Chicago taking Askarov but, as mentioned, that was a one-off scenario over 10 mocks thus far, so I wouldn't suggest it is a likely selection for the Blackhawks.