2020 NHL Draft: Fisher’s First Round Mock Scenarios

[Daximus]

Interesting, I know the Jets love their WHL prospects, so I could totally see that — and you might see it in the mocks to come — but Sanderson would be tough to pass on. He has a ton of momentum in scouting circles right now and could crack the top 10, perhaps even the top five on draft day. Sanderson might be seen as a steal at 12.

We just have a glut of guys that can play on the left side. Morrissey, Heinola, Samberg, Niku if need be, though he prefers the right side. A future 2nd line center is our biggest need followed by RD. We keep spending 1sts to acquire fill in 2Cs at the deadline. I think we should use a first to try and get a long term 2C. Zary might not hit that level but I think it's a gamble worth taking.

 

[Gliff]

I can’t see the Ducks passing on Grans if he is available at their second pick.

 

[57special]

MN graciously accepts Lundell at the #11 spot.

 

[Larry Fisher]

We just have a glut of guys that can play on the left side. Morrissey, Heinola, Samberg, Niku if need be, though he prefers the right side. A future 2nd line center is our biggest need followed by RD. We keep spending 1sts to acquire fill in 2Cs at the deadline. I think we should use a first to try and get a long term 2C. Zary might not hit that level but I think it's a gamble worth taking.

I do like your thinking and the logic behind it, makes sense to me.

 

[Larry Fisher]

I can’t see the Ducks passing on Grans if he is available at their second pick.

Grans could definitely be in the Ducks’ sights.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Detroit hasn't taken Drysdale at #4.

I find that interesting.

What's your opinion on that? Bad fit?

 

[Goose of Reason]

Grans could definitely be in the Ducks’ sights.

Bob Murray went to one of Grans' games this year so he's definitely on their radar. Personally I would take Bourque over him no questions asked. Big fan of his.

 

[Dr Salt]

Mysak really fell there

 

[Larry Fisher]

Detroit hasn't taken Drysdale at #4.

I find that interesting.

What's your opinion on that? Bad fit?

Not a bad fit but would they take two RD in a row after taking Seider at sixth last year? Or would they rather take a dynamic forward in a forward-heavy draft class?

 

[Larry Fisher]

Mysak really fell there

There will be significant variation from one mock to the next to reflect the many possibilities, but he was among the fallers in this scenario. Personally, I’m a Mysak fan and would take him in the top 15.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Someone is taking Askarov in the top 15, their fans aren't going to like it at the time, but their team is going to like it in about five years.

If Askarov makes it to the Rangers first pick, I hope we take him. We have absolutely no need for a goalie, but the value is too good to pass up. You can always trade a goalie, and I also wouldn't mind a situation where we have two elite goalies for a few years. We can also afford it with how good our prospect pool is and how well our rebuild is going this season.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Someone is taking Askarov in the top 15, their fans aren't going to like it at the time, but their team is going to like it in about five years.

If Askarov makes it to the Rangers first pick, I hope we take him. We have absolutely no need for a goalie, but the value is too good to pass up. You can always trade a goalie, and I also wouldn't mind a situation where we have two elite goalies for a few years. We can also afford it with how good our prospect pool is and how well our rebuild is going this season.

This is entirely true. I mean, Montreal took Carey Price with Jose Theodore and Jaroslav Halak. Cristobal Huet was there at the time too. So not all that different than the Rangers taking Askarov with Shesterkin, Georgiev and Lundqvist in the fold.

I do agree some team will take Askarov in the top 15 and that they won't regret it. He is the real deal IMO.

 

[themelkman]

This is entirely true. I mean, Montreal took Carey Price with Jose Theodore and Jaroslav Halak. Cristobal Huet was there at the time too. So not all that different than the Rangers taking Askarov with Shesterkin, Georgiev and Lundqvist in the fold.

I do agree some team will take Askarov in the top 15 and that they won't regret it. He is the real deal IMO.

I think most would agree it should be Chicago, but who knows

 

[Dr Salt]

I think most would agree it should be Chicago, but who knows

Really depends. Chicago has a history of waiting until late for drafting goalies even when it wasn't taboo to grab one high. I also think with the stage that we are at we will probably bank on one of the higher ceiling forwards available. Holtz, Mysak, Gunler though the last two aren't a consensus for going as high as our pick will be, though imo wouldn't be bad gets.

 

[emptyNedder]

Selecting a goalie is one of the true conundrums facing teams in the draft. Thirteen of the last 15 Cup winners won with a goalie drafted by the organization. However, only Fleury was a 1st rounder (while both Price and Vasilevsky have had great seasons neither has won the Cup).
Los Angeles is one of the teams to win multiple Cups during the past 15 seasons. Their success was greatly dependent on the 2005 draft. In that draft Carey Price and Tukka Rask were taken in the first round. LA passed on Rask to take Kopitar at 11. They acquired Quick in the 3rd round.
So the conundrum is whether you take this year's Price/Rask or gamble on passing on a goalie with the hope that you end with a Kopitar and a later-round goalie who develops above his pick.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Selecting a goalie is one of the true conundrums facing teams in the draft. Thirteen of the last 15 Cup winners won with a goalie drafted by the organization. However, only Fleury was a 1st rounder (while both Price and Vasilevsky have had great seasons neither has won the Cup).
Los Angeles is one of the teams to win multiple Cups during the past 15 seasons. Their success was greatly dependent on the 2005 draft. In that draft Carey Price and Tukka Rask were taken in the first round. LA passed on Rask to take Kopitar at 11. They acquired Quick in the 3rd round.
So the conundrum is whether you take this year's Price/Rask or gamble on passing on a goalie with the hope that you end with a Kopitar and a later-round goalie who develops above his pick.

Good points all around. It also comes down to how teams value each position and how much weight they put in goaltending. What is more important to winning? That is the ultimate question. Does defence really win championships? Is depth down the middle the difference? Or do you need a netminder capable of stealing games? Askarov is definitely that guy and has performed incredibly well under pressure prior to the World Juniors and Four Nations that followed. Can he get back to being a big stage goalie or did the WJC backlash take a permanent toll on his confidence/psyche? So many questions. He is arguably the biggest wild card of the first round.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Mock 2 has been expanded through the first round. Ottawa, Edmonton, Florida and Vegas would be among the winners in this scenario, while the Rangers, Stars, Avs and Sharks would have question marks coming out of the 2020 NHL Draft: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-2/

 

[themelkman]

Mock 2 has been expanded through the first round. Ottawa, Edmonton, Florida and Vegas would be among the winners in this scenario, while the Rangers, Stars, Avs and Sharks would have question marks coming out of the 2020 NHL Draft: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-2/

This is a tough one for the sharks, if they feel Poirier is the BPA I could see it happening, but he is the type of player we need the least. Jarvis or Perreault would be great for us, and Lapierre almost falling to us would hurt.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Awesome mock for the Sens. Lafreniere, Drysdale , my personal dream top 10 and add Mercer to that would be amazing... Could happen I suppose.

 

[Larry Fisher]

This is a tough one for the sharks, if they feel Poirier is the BPA I could see it happening, but he is the type of player we need the least. Jarvis or Perreault would be great for us, and Lapierre almost falling to us would hurt.

Yeah, the Sharks are picking late but will have plenty of intriguing options there. They will be glad to be back in the first round, that's for sure, which will take some of the sting off that lottery ticket that Ottawa is holding.

 

[Scintillating10]

Selecting a goalie is one of the true conundrums facing teams in the draft. Thirteen of the last 15 Cup winners won with a goalie drafted by the organization. However, only Fleury was a 1st rounder (while both Price and Vasilevsky have had great seasons neither has won the Cup).
Los Angeles is one of the teams to win multiple Cups during the past 15 seasons. Their success was greatly dependent on the 2005 draft. In that draft Carey Price and Tukka Rask were taken in the first round. LA passed on Rask to take Kopitar at 11. They acquired Quick in the 3rd round.
So the conundrum is whether you take this year's Price/Rask or gamble on passing on a goalie with the hope that you end with a Kopitar and a later-round goalie who develops above his pick.

A lot of good goalies go late in draft.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Mock 3 was a wild one from start to finish in the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft, featuring a few intriguing reaches by Carolina, Dallas and Washington, while the Senators, Rangers and Oilers might be emerging with steals: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-first-round-scenarios-3/

 

[emptyNedder]

Larry. The 3.1 is fascinating. As a Carolina fan it also confirms something I have been thinking: the Canes may well trade their first pick. If either Detroit (32, 51) or Ottawa (33, 46) would be willing to part with two 2nds, I think Carolina is willing.

All of these players have fallen out of the first in one of your three mocks: Peterka, Reichel, Foerster. All of these have been available after the 1st in 2 of your 3 mocks: Hirvonen, Simontaival, Chromiak, Niederbach. While I personally like Mysak more than any of those players, I wouldn't value him more than one of those and another pick around 50.

That would allow Carolina to swing for the fences with that pick and go for something they haven't the past two drafts--a large goal-scorer (maybe Blake Murray counts in the 6th last year). My personal favorite is Torgersson, but players like Colangelo or Jarventie would also fit that profile.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Larry. The 3.1 is fascinating. As a Carolina fan it also confirms something I have been thinking: the Canes may well trade their first pick. If either Detroit (32, 51) or Ottawa (33, 46) would be willing to part with two 2nds, I think Carolina is willing.

All of these players have fallen out of the first in one of your three mocks: Peterka, Reichel, Foerster. All of these have been available after the 1st in 2 of your 3 mocks: Hirvonen, Simontaival, Chromiak, Niederbach. While I personally like Mysak more than any of those players, I wouldn't value him more than one of those and another pick around 50.

That would allow Carolina to swing for the fences with that pick and go for something they haven't the past two drafts--a large goal-scorer (maybe Blake Murray counts in the 6th last year). My personal favorite is Torgersson, but players like Colangelo or Jarventie would also fit that profile.

I could totally see a scenario where Carolina trades down and takes one of those three Finnish forwards or perhaps two of them. I don’t know how ambitious/aggressive teams will be to trade up since 20-50 is one big tier but certainly some teams will have targets in that range that they feel warrant moving up for (certainly at 19).

As you can already tell through 3 of 10+ mocks, there will be plenty of variation/fluctuation from one scenario to the next. This is a fun but challenging draft class to mock. One of those years where I’ll be lucky to get 22 of 31 first-rounders right in my mock and 25 could be considered a great success.

Jarventie will totally be on Carolina’s radar. I’ve already had him in mind for the Hurricanes in the second or third rounds as I continue to work on my full mocks. Stay tuned!

 

[57special]

Ryan Suter's days are numbered? He's signed for 5 more years, is still playing at a high level, and has Jonas Brodin backing him up. Carson Soucy also had a breakout year.

Meanwhile, Koivu is done, Staal is fading and likely done at the end of his contract (next year), and they have NO top 6 C replacements! JEE is a #3C... a real stretch at #2C. Khovanov was really good-in Junior.

It's very simple. Wild need C's.