2020 NHL Draft: Fisher’s First Round Mock Scenarios

[TheWhiskeyThief]

Not a fan of Foerster to the Canes at #19. He'd be a good pickup at #44 if he was there. In this mock I'd take any of Holloway, Mysak, Nybeck, Reichel, or Hirvonen before him.

I enjoyed the write ups though, as always!

Yeah, Foerster really surged in the second half, building on his momentum from the CHL Top Prospects Game and relishing his chance to be Barrie's go-to guy. He could have faded once Suzuki and others were traded away, but Foerster came on stronger and won over a lot of doubters (including myself, to some degree). That showed his ability to be a driver and also displayed his character. NHL teams will be impressed by the way he finished off. I agree that 19 still seems a bit high, but he'll be a riser.

I did a production driven list that controls for size and league and Foerster comes in as a top 10 ranking.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I doubt the Jets would select Askarov at #12, but perhaps would consider trading down if they don't have a really highly valued player available. Maybe trade down to #15 or #17, but not sure what the Jackets or Devils could add, without a 2nd round pick. Or maybe trade down to #21 and add pick(s) from the Sens, but that might be too far to drop from the Jets' perspective.

We also don't know the draft order. Someone will take him. I don't think there's a team in the league that has no need for a generational goalie prospect. No team has goaltending that good that they can say with certainty that they will have no use for him on their NHL roster in a few years.

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

We also don't know the draft order. Someone will take him. I don't think there's a team in the league that has no need for a generational goalie prospect. No team has goaltending that good that they can say with certainty that they will have no use for him on their NHL roster in a few years.

Generational goalie who wasn’t the best goalie on 2 different teams in 2 different leagues. Wasn’t even the best young goalie on those teams, that was a guy who was picked up recently as a UDFA.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Generational goalie who wasn’t the best goalie on 2 different teams in 2 different leagues. Wasn’t even the best young goalie on those teams, that was a guy who was picked up recently as a UDFA.

No, you're right. 17 year old goalies play in the KHL and make the Russian World Junior team all the time. Do you want to guess who the last were in each category?

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

No, you're right. 17 year old goalies play in the KHL and make the Russian World Junior team all the time. Do you want to guess who the last were in each category?

I saw his KHL start, I’m surprised he stayed awake. He had nothing to do but turn dump ins into adventures for 55 minutes, then got a ton of volume, none of which was on net. Still gave up 2 goals in the 55 minutes.

Guess who was 40 points worse than the other goalie at U20? Another guy who made his rep at Hlinka, has never shown anything beyond average in larger sample sizes.
He’s not a bum, but there’s zero value in drafting any goalie in the 1st, let alone this one.

 

[GoldiFox]

I did a production driven list that controls for size and league and Foerster comes in as a top 10 ranking.

Overall production? I prefer 5v5 production for analytics purposes. All of the outlets I follow say that Foerster has significant skating issues. Easier to overcome that on an CHL power play but it can hamstring NHL potential - Ty Rattie comes to mind.

 

[TheWhiskeyThief]

Overall production? I prefer 5v5 production for analytics purposes. All of the outlets I follow say that Foerster has significant skating issues. Easier to overcome that on an CHL power play but it can hamstring NHL potential - Ty Rattie comes to mind.

I don’t have a problem w/ valuing 5v5 more beyond an inability to get access to data like that. Still trying to get a rough formula put together, then back testing deeper(only done 2000 so far) to tease out more efficiencies.

As for Foerster, I’m just running the stats, adjusting for league, height and being over/underweight by a standard deviation using power laws. Nothing more, nothing less. Wouldn’t know him from a hole in the wall. You can always coach up skating, hard to do for size(the size thing is more about trying to estimate thresholds for production to translate at all, then how it translates.)

 

[Larry Fisher]

So how did the teams make out in my mock series? Who were their most common matches among prospects and how would a consensus mock look following 10 scenarios for the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft? Here are the results: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-reviewing-first-round-scenarios-for-teams/

 

[themelkman]

So how did the teams make out in my mock series? Who were their most common matches among prospects and how would a consensus mock look following 10 scenarios for the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft? Here are the results: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-reviewing-first-round-scenarios-for-teams/

When do the full 7 rounders start?

 

[Larry Fisher]

When do the full 7 rounders start?

Good question, now that the draft has been pushed back, I’m going to put more effort into that project and make sure I provide analysis for all 217 selections. I’m also going to review this mock series for the prospects in the coming days and my final rankings are the main priority this week (publishing Monday, June 1). Then I have a few other draft features in the works, but I also just started another new job yesterday that includes a learning curve, so my seven-round mocks may not publish until after the draft lottery is held, so I can get the actual draft order correct. Of course, I’ll continue to chip away on them in the meantime. Stay tuned!

 

[Larry Fisher]

This is the finale to my mock series, reviewing how the prospects fared over 10 scenarios for the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft. Here are those results, highlighting their most common matches among teams: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-reviewing-first-round-scenarios-for-prospects/

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

This is the finale to my mock series, reviewing how the prospects fared over 10 scenarios for the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft. Here are those results, highlighting their most common matches among teams: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-reviewing-first-round-scenarios-for-prospects/

Good job with all this Larry. Nice to have this much content these days.

 

[ConnorMcMullet]

This is the finale to my mock series, reviewing how the prospects fared over 10 scenarios for the first round of the 2020 NHL Draft. Here are those results, highlighting their most common matches among teams: https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-nhl-mock-draft-reviewing-first-round-scenarios-for-prospects/

Great job Larry, I really enjoyed reading the series. I think you nailed team needs and who GMs are likely to pick.

I do think Guhle, Schneider, and Mercer — ranked 21-23 on average — will go higher on draft day, likely in the early to mid teens. Barron also seems a little high considering the risk associated with him.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Great job Larry, I really enjoyed reading the series. I think you nailed team needs and who GMs are likely to pick.

I do think Guhle, Schneider, and Mercer — ranked 21-23 on average — will go higher on draft day, likely in the early to mid teens. Barron also seems a little high considering the risk associated with him.

I do agree with those assessments. I’m still a big fan of Barron, so I probably “reached” for him in a few scenarios. Mercer isn’t the sexiest prospect, so I probably let him slide more often than I should have. But overall, I was pleasantly surprised by the consensus results and I could see the actual draft playing out quite similar.