NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART XII [We got 3-5]

[FormentonTheFuture]

I agree with him actually. I personally would not trade Tkachuk for Lafreniere. The NHL is moving back in a direction where skill on it's own is not enough to win cups. Elite skill is definitely required, but in the playoffs, you need a Tkachuk more than you need a Lafreniere.

Would the Leafs right now still have been eliminated from the play in round if you had swapped Brady for Mitch?

The leafs would still be playing if they had Tkachuk, no doubt.

Laf will be the better player. But Tkachuk is untouchable

 

[Polar Bear]

Would they though? Ottawa might have to add (a second or a prospect like Logan Brown) but LA has a lot more rebuild left to go, they’re just starting

They are not going to move out of the 2nd slot and missing out on the 2nd tier of players (Byfield and Stutzle) minus an overpayment.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I agree with him actually. I personally would not trade Tkachuk for Lafreniere. The NHL is moving back in a direction where skill on it's own is not enough to win cups. Elite skill is definitely required, but in the playoffs, you need a Tkachuk more than you need a Lafreniere.

Would the Leafs right now still have been eliminated from the play in round if you had swapped Brady for Mitch?

Laf isn’t necessarily a wall flower type player.

 

[aragorn]

Laf isn’t necessarily a wall flower type player.

You're right he's not, but he also can't do everything that Tkachuk can do. Laf has the potential to be a great player, IMO Tkachuk is a different kind of great player who also helps his team win by doing a lot of things well including dropping the gloves to protect teammates. Tkachuk is a disruptor who can single handedly change games in a number of ways & take teams off their game.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

If the Rangers keep first overall it would be because they really want Lafreniere and not because there weren't any fair offers on the table. From a lot of the trade proposals I have seen on HFboards and in particular the discussion on the main trade board the asking price is pure fantasy. I think the way to assess this situation is the following:

First, discussion about pick value is misguided in my opinion. A draft pick is a purely speculative asset with highly unpredictable value. I have seen some make reference to charts which suggest an inherent and stable value to each pick implying that one can easily determine that a pick is worth X amount of other picks. That doesn't factor in the quality of draft eligible prospects in any given draft, what teams know about said prospects and which prospects they value. Prospects are still speculative assets but their value is more stable and predictable than picks alone.

Based on that I think the following makes sense. A possible trade with the Rangers would at minimum require one of the 3rd overall pick or the 5th overall pick and then additional assets would be added on top of that. The 3rd overall pick guarantees one of Tim Stutzle or Quinton Byfield. The 5th overall pick guarantees one of Jamie Drysdale, Cole Perfetti, Lucas Raymond, Marco Rossi, Jake Sanderson, Yaroslav Askarov, etc. So the first question is what is the value difference between Byfield/Stutzle and the second question is what is the value difference between each of Drysdale/Perfetti/Raymond/Rossi/Sanderson/Askarov and Lafreniere. Now that the gap in value is established the question would be which assets/combination of assets can the Sens offer that would close that gap. Once that gap is closed then the Sens could consider what additional assets they might need to add to exceed the value to sweeten the deal.

The second major factor would be a thorough analysis of the Rangers current situation. It would require a look at their cap situation, depth chart, current assets and what their short and long term organizational plans are. The objective is to offer a deal that clearly puts their organization in a better situation than if they just go with the first overall pick.

There are plenty of creative offers the Sens could propose and many of them would be deals that would offer great value to the Rangers. As a consequence if the Rangers decided to stick with the pick it is because they don't want to lose Lafreniere and not because there isn't a good offer.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Brady isn't as skilled as Laf, Stutzle, or any of the top tier wingers already playing in the NHL, but he simply has "it".. and I hate using "it" as a way to add value to a player because its so intangible but something about trading Brady for Laf would leave me feeling extremely uneasy.. which I'm aware is probably crazy, but adding Brady to any sort of trade for a skilled skilled winger like Laf makes me hesitate immediately, whether it be 1 for 1 or Brady +

Skilled winger? Is that how you view Laf? He's the most physical top prospect to come along in years. He plays almost physical as Brady. He hits harder but doesn't mix it up in front of the net quite as much. Lafreniere is a pretty mean power forward type. As I said I love Tkachuk's game but other being a little less of a pest Lafreniere is going to be so much better at everything else.

He's going to be a 80-90 point player with a mean streak Brady is going to be a 60 point player who gets under the skin of the other team. I know which one I'd rather have.

 

[Pinto Bean]

Skilled winger? Is that how you view Laf? He's the most physical top prospect to come along in years. He plays almost physical as Brady. He hits harder but doesn't mix it up in front of the net quite as much. Lafreniere is a pretty mean power forward type. As I said I love Tkachuk's game but other being a little less of a pest Lafreniere is going to be so much better at everything else.

He's going to be a 80-90 point player with a mean streak Brady is going to be a 60 point player who gets under the skin of the other team. I know which one I'd rather have.

Is he not a skilled winger? You're assuming the word "skilled" means he's soft and a perimeter player I'm guessing. I meant nothing of the such. Simply was stating that Laf is a more skilled player than Brady. There's a reason he's the unanimous #1 - He has many tools in his toolbox.

 

[Polar Bear]

If the Rangers keep first overall it would be because they really want Lafreniere and not because there weren't any fair offers on the table. From a lot of the trade proposals I have seen on HFboards and in particular the discussion on the main trade board the asking price is pure fantasy. I think the way to assess this situation is the following:

First, discussion about pick value is misguided in my opinion. A draft pick is a purely speculative asset with highly unpredictable value. I have seen some make reference to charts which suggest an inherent and stable value to each pick implying that one can easily determine that a pick is worth X amount of other picks. That doesn't factor in the quality of draft eligible prospects in any given draft, what teams know about said prospects and which prospects they value. Prospects are still speculative assets but their value is more stable and predictable than picks alone.

Based on that I think the following makes sense. A possible trade with the Rangers would at minimum require one of the 3rd overall pick or the 5th overall pick and then additional assets would be added on top of that. The 3rd overall pick guarantees one of Tim Stutzle or Quinton Byfield. The 5th overall pick guarantees one of Jamie Drysdale, Cole Perfetti, Lucas Raymond, Marco Rossi, Jake Sanderson, Yaroslav Askarov, etc. So the first question is what is the value difference between Byfield/Stutzle and the second question is what is the value difference between each of Drysdale/Perfetti/Raymond/Rossi/Sanderson/Askarov and Lafreniere. Now that the gap in value is established the question would be which assets/combination of assets can the Sens offer that would close that gap. Once that gap is closed then the Sens could consider what additional assets they might need to add to exceed the value to sweeten the deal.

The second major factor would be a thorough analysis of the Rangers current situation. It would require a look at their cap situation, depth chart, current assets and what their short and long term organizational plans are. The objective is to offer a deal that clearly puts their organization in a better situation than if they just go with the first overall pick.

There are plenty of creative offers the Sens could propose and many of them would be deals that would offer great value to the Rangers. As a consequence if the Rangers decided to stick with the pick it is because they don't want to lose Lafreniere and not because there isn't a good offer.

I think what you write is pretty accurate and very well written and explained. I think the Rangers do want to pick Laf and certainly don't feel any need to be the first team to trade the 1st overall pick in the salary cap era. With that being said, this is a very different type of trade. The Rangers have no primary motivating factor to move the selection; it would purely come from an offer that would be too stupid to pass on. Could the Senators put together a package that would be impossible to say no to? I think so. Would it be logical for the Sens to do so? Very likely not, because the price isn't going to reflect fair value on any objective level and the Senators are well beyond a single player away from competing.

 

[senswon]

I think what you write is pretty accurate and very well written and explained. I think the Rangers do want to pick Laf and certainly don't feel any need to be the first team to trade the 1st overall pick in the salary cap era. With that being said, this is a very different type of trade. The Rangers have no primary motivating factor to move the selection; it would purely come from an offer that would be too stupid to pass on. Could the Senators put together a package that would be impossible to say no to? I think so. Would it be logical for the Sens to do so? Very likely not, because the price isn't going to reflect fair value on any objective level and the Senators are well beyond a single player away from competing.

Personally I'm more concerned on missing out on Byfield/Stutzle than Lafreniere. Sure a Franco-Canadian is great to market but you're gonna give up ALOT of assets when all we need to do is wait.

 

[Sweatred]

I think what you write is pretty accurate and very well written and explained. I think the Rangers do want to pick Laf and certainly don't feel any need to be the first team to trade the 1st overall pick in the salary cap era. With that being said, this is a very different type of trade. The Rangers have no primary motivating factor to move the selection; it would purely come from an offer that would be too stupid to pass on. Could the Senators put together a package that would be impossible to say no to? I think so. Would it be logical for the Sens to do so? Very likely not, because the price isn't going to reflect fair value on any objective level and the Senators are well beyond a single player away from competing.

I think your over estimating the delta between the projections of LAF and BY.

That difference isn’t like the perceived difference between Lindross and Forsberg In 1991. In reality it is probably closer to the actual difference between Lindros and Forsberg.

There should be zero interest on the Sens part for a “cant say no” type trade offer.

If I was a Ranger fan I’d rather have Byfield and Guhle (NYI) than LAF.

 

[Polar Bear]

Personally I'm more concerned on missing out on Byfield/Stutzle than Lafreniere. Sure a Franco-Canadian is great to market but you're gonna give up ALOT when all we need to do is wait.

Well, I can’t see Ottawa passing on Byfield/Stutzle so I wouldn’t be worried.

 

[Polar Bear]

I think your over estimating the delta between the projections of LAF and BY.

That difference isn’t like the perceived difference between Lindross and Forsberg In 1991. In reality it is probably closer to the actual difference between Lindros and Forsberg.

There should be zero interest on the Sens part for a “cant say no” type trade offer.

If I was a Ranger fan I’d rather have Byfield and Guhle (NYI) than LAF.

Well, that's just a matter of opinion, but what we know with certainty is two things. First, Laf is just about the unanimous top player in this draft. Second, that Laf is number 1 on the Rangers board (since Bob always uses us as one of his team, it's been this way for awhile now). Moreover, it's quite possible that we actually have Byfield as our number three player on the board or as low as six, since both things were present within Bob's list.

All I can say is that the team has gone on record saying they aren't going to move the pick unless an offer "blows their socks and pants off." They have made their excitement for Laf known, and for those reasons, I've been saying why the price would be far too high for the Senators to pay.

And personally, and I can speak for most Rangers fans on our forum, 99.9% of people would stick with Laf versus that, but that's a separate discussion, my friend!

 

[Sweatred]

Well, that's just a matter of opinion, but what we know with certainty is two things. First, Laf is just about the unanimous top player in this draft. Second, that Laf is number 1 on the Rangers board (since Bob always uses us as one of his team, it's been this way for awhile now). Moreover, it's quite possible that we actually have Byfield as our number three player on the board or as low as six, since both things were present within Bob's list.

All I can say is that the team has gone on record saying they aren't going to move the pick unless an offer "blows their socks and pants off." They have made their excitement for Laf known, and for those reasons, I've been saying why the price would be far too high for the Senators to pay.

And personally, and I can speak for most Rangers fans on our forum, 99.9% of people would stick with Laf versus that, but that's a separate discussion, my friend!

Ya, fair enough. I 100% agree that LAF is the Industries consensus pick. He has had a good year and is easy to stand behind. If Byfield plays in the OHL this year I don’t think it will take long for people to recognize his game is equal with LaF’s when comparing both players at 18.0 years old etc. Laf is approaching 19.

 

[Polar Bear]

Ya, fair enough. I 100% agree that LAF is the Industries consensus pick. He has had a good year and is easy to stand behind. If Byfield plays in the OHL this year I don’t think it will take long for people to recognize his game is equal with LaF’s when comparing both players at 18.0 years old etc. Laf is approaching 19.

The thing with Byfield is that while he does have a lot of potential, he still needs to fill it out and prove it. So yes, he could reach it, but it's certainly a riskier proposition. I think it's just one of a few factors as to why Laf is see as the clear number 1 guy, just because he's a very safe pick and almost a lock to be at the very least, a great first line winger. Byfield/Stutzle are really good options at 2/3 though; I think they are above average prospects for those slots in draft years.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Burrowsaurus]

The thing with Byfield is that while he does have a lot of potential, he still needs to fill it out and prove it. So yes, he could reach it, but it's certainly a riskier proposition. I think it's just one of a few factors as to why Laf is see as the clear number 1 guy, just because he's a very safe pick and almost a lock to be at the very least, a great first line winger. Byfield/Stutzle are really good options at 2/3 though; I think they are above average prospects for those slots in draft years.

i dont know that he has to prove anything MORE than what any other prospect does.

 

[Polar Bear]

i dont know that he has to prove anything MORE than what any other prospect does.

Well, he's still rather raw and I think he still needs to take another step forward to show that he can reach what his ceiling might ultimately be. I don't think it's an unfair assessment. Not that he won't reach it, but it still needs to be displayed.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

GARRIOCH: The Ottawa Senators won’t be moving their No. 3 and No. 5 selections

Not trading 3 and 5 for #1

 

[DrakeAndJosh]

GARRIOCH: The Ottawa Senators won’t be moving their No. 3 and No. 5 selections

Not trading 3 and 5 for #1

I knew dorion wasn’t dumb enough to consider this but I’m glad to hear it straight from the team.

 

[Micklebot]

GARRIOCH: The Ottawa Senators won’t be moving their No. 3 and No. 5 selections

Not trading 3 and 5 for #1

I thought it was interesting see Dorion considers this one of the best draft cohorts of the last 20 years, which is particularly interesting when #1 is seen as above average but not generational.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I’m scared to go see rangers proposals for 1 on the main board.

 

[Polar Bear]

GARRIOCH: The Ottawa Senators won’t be moving their No. 3 and No. 5 selections

Not trading 3 and 5 for #1

This is the right move for the Senators. The price would have hurt them more in the long-term.

 

[Polar Bear]

I’m scared to go see rangers proposals for 1 on the main board.

Haha! That’s why I’ve been here to offer the Rangers’ perspective, so you don’t have to!

The truth is, most fans just want to keep the pick and take Laf which I give us about a 99.9% chance of doing.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Final 2020 NHL Draft Rankings - Smaht Scouting

Rossi at 3 is just a smidgen bold.
I certainly would not have Mysak and Andrae over Quinn

They were apparently watching the wrong team looking for Cole Perfetti

Just passing it along

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

GARRIOCH: The Ottawa Senators won’t be moving their No. 3 and No. 5 selections

Not trading 3 and 5 for #1

So Button has Rossi going to the Sens at 5.. Is that what you wanted to tell us?

He must be a 67's fan