NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART XI [We got 3-5]

[RAFI BOMB]

I posted this before but I should have added a description. This is Craig Button discussing prospects for this draft. There are interviews and clips of multiple prospects.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I realize that most here are against drafting a goalie early in the 1st rd bc of that voodoo thing & that there are some good players in this draft. However, when I look at the teams that are drafting from #8 to #13 most of the teams in that range could all use a goalie for their future team.

NJ has two picks in that range & I could see them drafting Askarov at either 7th or 10th, possibly 7th to assure they get him & other teams do not. Is 5th OA a stretch for this type of goalie? How important is a really good goalie to a team? How many goalies have won the Conn Symth? Have you heard it said that teams build from the net out?

Can I officially change However in these posts to HV in future? All in favour say Yea, against Nay? Happy Day After Canada Day everyone.

There seems to be a large amount of buzz that Askarov is top 5 on some internal lists, and while I don't think he will go that high, I see more such buzz for Askarov than I saw for Knight. I think Askarov will go around the same spot at the very latest, and could see him going as early as 7 as you mentioned. I'm very much against drafting a goalie that high, but if he does hit, he could be one of the more valuable players from this draft

That said, here are the starters produced from 2006 to 2013:

2006
Bernier (11)
Varlamov (23)
Neuvirth (34)
Mason (69)
Reimer (99)

2008
Markstrom (31)
Allen (34)
Holty (93)

2009
Lehner (46)
Nilsson (62)
Kuemper (161)

2010
Grubauer (112)
Mrazek (141)
Andersen (187)

2011
Gibson (39)
Binnington (88)

2012
Vasilevskiy (19)
Korpisalo (62)
Andersen (73)
Murray (83)
Hellebuyck (130)
Ullmark (163)

2013
Jarry (44)
Saros (99)

You get a slightly better rate of above average starters at the top 60 of the draft, although not by a significant margin, and same for top tier starters. Sure, Vasilevskiy, Gibson, Markstrom, Varlamov, Jarry and Lehner were all top 60 guys, but you also have Hellebuyck, Murray, Andersen, Binnington, Grubauer, Holtby and Kuemper outside of that range. I do think were seeing a trend of goalies going higher again, after a 15 year freeze, and the days of a goalie in the top 10 or even top 5 may soon be upon us, but I think the risk with a high pick is still so strong and I think even compared to 20 years ago, where goalies were already considered voodoo, strides in scouting have happened less in regards to goaltending than they have to other positions.

Currently, the trend of finding goaltenders is pretty well distributed across the draft. The strongest correlation with high picks is playing a lot of games, but that appears to be more a case of opportunity than merit. Whoever picks Askarov may very well look like a genius, as he seems to have a pedigree that is pretty much unrivaled, but goalies are so tough to evaluate that only those who are skilled at doing so will have a really strong positive opinion on him. I won't be surprised if he becomes a franchise player, but it scares me to bank on him doing so - especially with a top 5 pick. I'm even iffy on him in the teens, despite that being our third pick! I'm probably more risk-averse than some on here, so take that with a grain of salt...

 

[BradyTkachucky]

I'm sure this has also been mentioned, but the fear about Perfetti's skating is making it hard for me to want him at 5 over Raymond or Drysdale. The takeaway from the World Junior selection camp was that Perfetti couldn't keep pace in the scrimmages against the U-all star team.

Thinking the game at a high level is essential, but I feel less confident banking on a guy who scouts say needs better starts and straight line speed than a player that needs to put on muscle.

Mark Stone?

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Mark Stone?

Stone is 6'2. If Stone was fast, the guy would be top 5 NHL player. Perfetti's concerns are size AND speed.

 

[aragorn]

There seems to be a large amount of buzz that Askarov is top 5 on some internal lists, and while I don't think he will go that high, I see more such buzz for Askarov than I saw for Knight. I think Askarov will go around the same spot at the very latest, and could see him going as early as 7 as you mentioned. I'm very much against drafting a goalie that high, but if he does hit, he could be one of the more valuable players from this draft

That said, here are the starters produced from 2006 to 2013:

2006
Bernier (11)
Varlamov (23)
Neuvirth (34)
Mason (69)
Reimer (99)

2008
Markstrom (31)
Allen (34)
Holty (93)

2009
Lehner (46)
Nilsson (62)
Kuemper (161)

2010
Grubauer (112)
Mrazek (141)
Andersen (187)

2011
Gibson (39)
Binnington (88)

2012
Vasilevskiy (19)
Korpisalo (62)
Andersen (73)
Murray (83)
Hellebuyck (130)
Ullmark (163)

2013
Jarry (44)
Saros (99)

You get a slightly better rate of above average starters at the top 60 of the draft, although not by a significant margin, and same for top tier starters. Sure, Vasilevskiy, Gibson, Markstrom, Varlamov, Jarry and Lehner were all top 60 guys, but you also have Hellebuyck, Murray, Andersen, Binnington, Grubauer, Holtby and Kuemper outside of that range. I do think were seeing a trend of goalies going higher again, after a 15 year freeze, and the days of a goalie in the top 10 or even top 5 may soon be upon us, but I think the risk with a high pick is still so strong and I think even compared to 20 years ago, where goalies were already considered voodoo, strides in scouting have happened less in regards to goaltending than they have to other positions.

Currently, the trend of finding goaltenders is pretty well distributed across the draft. The strongest correlation with high picks is playing a lot of games, but that appears to be more a case of opportunity than merit. Whoever picks Askarov may very well look like a genius, as he seems to have a pedigree that is pretty much unrivaled, but goalies are so tough to evaluate that only those who are skilled at doing so will have a really strong positive opinion on him. I won't be surprised if he becomes a franchise player, but it scares me to bank on him doing so - especially with a top 5 pick. I'm even iffy on him in the teens, despite that being our third pick! I'm probably more risk-averse than some on here, so take that with a grain of salt...

I was talking about coming away from this first rd of this draft before last yr's draft with Byfield & Askarov when the SJ pick was in the teens. Yep, it's a huge risk to take him at #5, but if he turns into a star, it's so much better if you have a great goalie on your team than the team you have to play has the better goalie in nets, especially in the playoffs.

If Ottawa is lucky enough to acquire Byfield, I would be very tempted to also draft Askarov at #5 OA & come away with the best goalie & potentially the best centreman in this draft, two key positions of need. And they still have a ton of picks left, including another 1st rd pick & they have a good number of picks for the next draft too & could add more. It's an opportunity for Ottawa to add a great goalie something they have never really had.

 

[Laphroaig]

Let's assume we take forwards with our first two picks and our third pick is in the mid teens. Barron, Schneider and Guhle are all available but I haven't seen them enough to have a strong opinion. For the sake of argument let's agree we're taking a defenseman here. Which of these guys should we take? I need to know so I can decide whether or not I'm pissed off on draft day.

 

[DJB]

Stone is 6'2. If Stone was fast, the guy would be top 5 NHL player. Perfetti's concerns are size AND speed.

And also that he is a perimeter player with questionable work ethic.

He and Stone are nothing alike

 

[JungleBeat]

Stone is 6'2. If Stone was fast, the guy would be top 5 NHL player. Perfetti's concerns are size AND speed.

You’re overrating Stone, he wouldn’t be close to a top 5 player.

 

[BondraTime]

Let's assume we take forwards with our first two picks and our third pick is in the mid teens. Barron, Schneider and Guhle are all available but I haven't seen them enough to have a strong opinion. For the sake of argument let's agree we're taking a defenseman here. Which of these guys should we take? I need to know so I can decide whether or not I'm pissed off on draft day.

Guhle

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Definitely Guhle. Big, imposing, excellent skater who plays with confidence and has an edge in all 3 zones.

You’re overrating Stone, he wouldn’t be close to a top 5 player.

Stone with excellent speed? Can you imagine the best takeaway artist in the league who is 6'2, excellent IQ, soft hands, and darting around the ice? That's basically Hossa with an edge, right? Who would be better on the wing outside of Ovy? I think it'd be better for me to say top 10 player and easy top 5 winger.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

Guhle is almost a guarantee to play in an NHL team's top 3-4, just based on his size, skating and hockey sense. The lack of elite puck skills ala Chabot will keep him from being a projected #1 Dman.

Saying that, Guhle would be a great pick up with the Isles pick.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Boud]

Tourigny on Rossi "translated"

"Marco is the player, with Lafrenière obviously, who is the most ready to play in the big league," said the pilot to the TVA Sports network.
A quick glance at Rossi's statistics shows that Tourigny is not biased. Even if he talks about his own player, his figures clearly show that he does indeed seem to be a check mark above.
In 56 games this season, the young man has an impressive 39 goals and 81 assists (120 points).
Multiple qualities
Of course, as a good coach, Tourigny sees beyond the statistics. Besides, you quickly realize that his compliment chest is full when it comes to talking about Marco Rossi.
“Even at 5 feet 9 inches, he is extremely strong on his skates. It also excels in tight spaces. I must also tell you that defensively, Marco is in my opinion the best player in this draft. He is so good in his territory and that's what sets him apart from other talented players. ”
The 67's coach then goes on to say something very revealing about his assessment of Rossi's game.
“Marco is mature at all levels. He is very hard in his battles. I was lucky to see Nico Hischier play very closely, but Rossi is more advanced than Hischier was at the same age. ”
“No matter who the coach is, he can use it everywhere, no doubt. He will be able to win the coaches' trust very quickly.
"He only lives for hockey"
When professional teams scrutinize the different hopes in anticipation of a draft, they also focus on the players' personality and their habits off the ice. No problem on that, swears Tourigny.
"He's a very reserved guy. He's not a guy who talks a lot. He doesn't like the spotlight. If you want to talk with Marco, you talk to him about hockey or his country! If you talk to him about cars, movies or politics, you lose him!
"He only lives for hockey!" He eats, drinks and sleeps according to that! He is ready to do anything to be better. He is an inspiration to his teammates. The other players see him as a model. ”
Marco Rossi: «Il est plus avancé que Nico Hischier au même âge» – André Tourigny

It shows in his play that he lives for hockey. For me he's comfortably the 4rth best prospect in this draft.

 

[edguy]

I wonder what kind of relationship Dorion has with Tourigny now?

If its still positive it should give us a great report on Rossi.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Let's assume we take forwards with our first two picks and our third pick is in the mid teens. Barron, Schneider and Guhle are all available but I haven't seen them enough to have a strong opinion. For the sake of argument let's agree we're taking a defenseman here. Which of these guys should we take? I need to know so I can decide whether or not I'm pissed off on draft day.

Guhle I could get behind him in that 13-15 range depending on who else falls. I like his skating/ mobility/ speed , size and physicality.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

The draft being in October makes me that much more glad we got #3.

Can rest easy knowing we'll get an elite center prospect instead of worrying for 4 months if we'll draft the right player.

 

[Answer]

We need to stay away from Perfetti. Guy is small and not a great skater, either. It seems way to risky.

Rossi with the same issue but yet is still better than Perfetti and plays Center

Even Drysdale isn't a great skater, and at times make questionable decision. Drysdale would be a good 3-4 years project, if we draft him, and I do not have that kind of patients

Raymond is a hard prospect to evaluate. He seems to have skill, but hasn't gotten the opportunity to play in an offensive role, so we are not sure what his production can be like in the NHL. He seems like a smart 2-way player with good skating. I see a Norris 2.0 in him

At this point, I hope we just trade our 5th overall to draft 2nd and get Byfield and Stutzle.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

We need to stay away from Perfetti. Guy is small and not a great skater, either. It seems way to risky.

Rossi with the same issue but yet is still better than Perfetti and plays Center

Even Drysdale isn't a great skater, and at times make questionable decision. Drysdale would be a good 3-4 years project, if we draft him, and I do not have that kind of patients

Raymond is a hard prospect to evaluate. He seems to have skill, but hasn't gotten the opportunity to play in an offensive role, so we are not sure what his production can be like in the NHL. He seems like a smart 2-way player with good skating. I see a Norris 2.0 in him

At this point, I hope we just trade our 5th overall to draft 2nd and get Byfield and Stutzle.

certainly not a bad option

 

[bert]

We need to stay away from Perfetti. Guy is small and not a great skater, either. It seems way to risky.

Rossi with the same issue but yet is still better than Perfetti and plays Center

Even Drysdale isn't a great skater, and at times make questionable decision. Drysdale would be a good 3-4 years project, if we draft him, and I do not have that kind of patients

Raymond is a hard prospect to evaluate. He seems to have skill, but hasn't gotten the opportunity to play in an offensive role, so we are not sure what his production can be like in the NHL. He seems like a smart 2-way player with good skating. I see a Norris 2.0 in him

At this point, I hope we just trade our 5th overall to draft 2nd and get Byfield and Stutzle.

I assume you have Drysdale confused with another human being.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

We need to stay away from Perfetti. Guy is small and not a great skater, either. It seems way to risky.

Rossi with the same issue but yet is still better than Perfetti and plays Center

Even Drysdale isn't a great skater, and at times make questionable decision. Drysdale would be a good 3-4 years project, if we draft him, and I do not have that kind of patients

Raymond is a hard prospect to evaluate. He seems to have skill, but hasn't gotten the opportunity to play in an offensive role, so we are not sure what his production can be like in the NHL. He seems like a smart 2-way player with good skating. I see a Norris 2.0 in him

At this point, I hope we just trade our 5th overall to draft 2nd and get Byfield and Stutzle.

Drysdale will be in the NhL by 2021-2022 IMO.

 

[Masked]

We need to stay away from Perfetti. Guy is small and not a great skater, either. It seems way to risky.

Rossi with the same issue but yet is still better than Perfetti and plays Center

Even Drysdale isn't a great skater, and at times make questionable decision. Drysdale would be a good 3-4 years project, if we draft him, and I do not have that kind of patients

Raymond is a hard prospect to evaluate. He seems to have skill, but hasn't gotten the opportunity to play in an offensive role, so we are not sure what his production can be like in the NHL. He seems like a smart 2-way player with good skating. I see a Norris 2.0 in him

At this point, I hope we just trade our 5th overall to draft 2nd and get Byfield and Stutzle.

I was on the fence until now but your post convinced me that Perfetti is the guy at #5 for the Sens if he's still available.

 

[SENATOR]

I would draft in the second round sensational Dmitri Ovchinnikov, with speed to burn and great hands. He is in top five best skaters of this draft. Ovchinnikov is the same caliber player as Rossi or Prefetti, but because he did not make the jump yet to Canadian juniors he is extremely underrated by scouts. Ovchinnikov would easy score 100 points in Q and 80-90 points in OHL. I am sure he is not even on the Sens radar.

 

[SENATOR]

Scouting Report
A high-scoring Russian forward who doesn’t play the stereotypical Russian style, Dmitri Ovchinnikov has had a prolific season in the MHL thus far as one of the Snipers top players, seeing plenty of ice-time in even strength and power-play situations. As a result, he has been rewarded with some KHL time and limited international appearances.
Despite the gaudy point totals, Ovchinnikov’s greatest attributes from a long-term development standpoint are not offensive, but are rather on the defensive aspects of the game. Ovchinnikov takes the defensive responsibilities of the center position quite seriously, and is constantly supporting his defensemen in the defensive zone and covering for them when one pinches in the offensive zone. He keeps his head on a swivel, and thus rarely allows an opposing player to sneak into the low slot unnoticed. For whatever reasons, he is not used on the penalty kill.
Offensively, Ovchinnikov does a lot of the little things right and seems to have a strong sense of where he can be most dangerous. As mentioned, he is committed to covering for a pinching defenseman but also darts into openings moving northwards. He also does a good job providing a target for his teammates by keeping his stick on the ice with the tape open to the puck carrier. In addition to helping his teammates realize a passing lane, this also allows Ovchinnikov to put the puck on net shortly after having received it. Indeed, many of Ovchinnikov’s goals are the result of the quick-strike ability. He also displays a plus backhander that he can tuck under the bar from in tight.
Ovchinnikov displays good straight-line speed and quickness to open areas. His overall skating ability is above average and it certainly is not a weakness, as he finds himself in open ice quite frequently and can outpace a napping opponent. Like many junior players, however, Ovchinnikov will need to improve in nearly all aspects in order to make the NHL. Luckily, there doesn’t appear to be any glaring mechanical flaws, indicating that this should improve with additional strength and coaching.
Physicality is a similar matter. Ovchinnikov isn’t a physically dominating player, but doesn’t avoid or shy away from contact, especially if he has the puck. Increased aggressiveness and willingness to initiate contact would make him a more effective player, however.
As odd as it is to say about one of the top under-18 scorers in the league, Ovchinnikov does not profile as a plus offensive player at the next level, as he doesn’t display a lot of explosiveness or creativity when carrying the puck, specifically when playing against the MHL’s tougher teams in his conference. He has to work on his creativity if he wants to cause problems for defenders at the next level, and his long-distance passing accuracy leaves a bit to be desired. At times, it looks like Ovchinnikov’s commitment to defense hampers his ability to execute in the offensive zone, as it leaves him hesitant to gamble on 50/50 plays in the zone.
Ovchnnikov brings enough to the table to be a legitimate draft prospect, even if his junior point totals may not translate to NHL success. His defensive game and willingness to support his teammates are not often seen in players his age — especially in players lacking size or a singular impressive skill with the puck.

 

[bert]

I would draft in the second round sensational Dmitri Ovchinnikov, with speed to burn and great hands. He is in top five best skaters of this draft. Ovchinnikov is the same caliber player as Rossi or Prefetti, but because he did not make the jump yet to Canadian juniors he is extremely underrated by scouts. Ovchinnikov would easy score 100 points in Q and 80-90 points in OHL. I am sure he is not even on the Sens radar.

He is definitely a player to consider in the second round I agree. However no he isnt a Rossi or Perfetti level of prospect.

 

[Agent Zub]

We need to stay away from Perfetti. Guy is small and not a great skater, either. It seems way to risky.

Rossi with the same issue but yet is still better than Perfetti and plays Center

Even Drysdale isn't a great skater, and at times make questionable decision. Drysdale would be a good 3-4 years project, if we draft him, and I do not have that kind of patients

Raymond is a hard prospect to evaluate. He seems to have skill, but hasn't gotten the opportunity to play in an offensive role, so we are not sure what his production can be like in the NHL. He seems like a smart 2-way player with good skating. I see a Norris 2.0 in him

At this point, I hope we just trade our 5th overall to draft 2nd and get Byfield and Stutzle.

Anyone know how tall Perfettis mom, dad, siblings are lol?

He's listed as 5'10 185. maybe he grows to 5'11/6' 195/200 pounds. Skating is also the only attribute that prospects are guaranteed to improve in. 4 years of power skating training and physical growth would do wonders.