NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART 3

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Micklebot

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I dunno, those numbers and underlying numbers are preeeeeeettttyyyy nice .
There is a lot of competition in the top 4 though. I still think Raymond and Stutzle would be impossible to pass on, and I'm higher on Rossi than some. Dysdale and Holtz are certainly in the mix as well, but to each their own.
 

MatchesMalone

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Yeah that top four is gonna be really tough for anyone else to crack. But after that it's likely pretty open between Drysdale, Holtz, Rossi, Lundell. As Micklebot said, Lundell is a very Dorion style pick. But so is Rossi, and even Drysdale. There's not much risk in any of that top eight except for Holtz.

The key distinction between Lundell and other prospects in that range for our second pick is that Lundell is much closer to NHL-ready than others, which might be an important factor in Dorion's eyes.
 

Erik Alfredsson

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Yeah that top four is gonna be really tough for anyone else to crack. But after that it's likely pretty open between Drysdale, Holtz, Rossi, Lundell. As Micklebot said, Lundell is a very Dorion style pick. But so is Rossi, and even Drysdale. There's not much risk in any of that top eight except for Holtz.

The key distinction between Lundell and other prospects in that range for our second pick is that Lundell is much closer to NHL-ready than others, which might be an important factor in Dorion's eyes.

Is Rossi really a Dorion pick? I know he plays big, but Dorion loves size, Crookshank, Dahlen, and White are the only players he's drafted that are under 6'0, and they're all 5'11.
 

MatchesMalone

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Is Rossi really a Dorion pick? I know he plays big, but Dorion loves size, Crookshank, Dahlen, and White are the only players he's drafted that are under 6'0, and they're all 5'11.

Yeah maybe you're right. But all indications based on what I've seen and heard are that size won't be a serious issue with him. He seems like a pretty safe bet to at least be a top nine NHL forward, even worst-ish case scenario, with a ton of upside. Great work ethic, great defensive forward, a pitbull in front of the net. Seems like a Dorion type pick, I guess aside from the height.

It's funny, I distinctly remember an interview with Dorion from around 2014 or so where he said that Bryan Murray said to him "Pierre, no more small guys" or something to that effect. Interesting that Dorion has held to that with Murray no longer around.
 

RAFI BOMB

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Yeah that top four is gonna be really tough for anyone else to crack. But after that it's likely pretty open between Drysdale, Holtz, Rossi, Lundell. As Micklebot said, Lundell is a very Dorion style pick. But so is Rossi, and even Drysdale. There's not much risk in any of that top eight except for Holtz.

The key distinction between Lundell and other prospects in that range for our second pick is that Lundell is much closer to NHL-ready than others, which might be an important factor in Dorion's eyes.

I could see the Sens being higher on Dylan Holloway than Anton Lundell. Holloway has under rated offensive skill and plays an in your face physical style. The commentary on him reminds me of the commentary on Brady Tkachuk prior to being drafted. Many scouting services had them ranked high, many had questions about their offensive upside based on their NCAA stats, many argued against those critics claiming they would have strong offensive numbers if they were playing in the CHL. I could see the Sens being much higher on him than many on here.
2020 Draft Profile: LW/C Dylan Holloway - The Draft Analyst
Scouting Report

A hard-working power forward with a strong sense for the game, Holloway was one of the top players in Canadian Junior “A” for the AJHL’s Okotoks Oilers before beginning his draft year as a freshman for the University of Wisconsin. Blessed with ideal size and excellent balance, Holloway is a jack of all trades who can play either center or wing; serve as a playmaker or finish around the net; and most importantly, be matched up against opposing top players. Although his start with the Badgers has yet to produce eye-popping stats, one must consider his ability to impact shifts without denting the scoresheet. Additionally, he was a key figure in a Wisconsin recruiting class that also included forwards Alex Turcotte, Cole Caufield, and Owen Lindmark, so there is only so much puck for these talented underclassmen to share.

Holloway is a hound off the puck who consistently applies pressure with physicality, especially on the penalty kill. He gets involved on the forecheck and creates turnovers thanks to smart reads, proper stick positioning and quick turns towards the direction of puck travel. Holloway has proven to be effective in various types of zone-coverage schemes and usually stays within the system being implemented. By watching him react to puck movement accordingly while maintaining positional flexibility, you get the sense that Holloway is not trying to do everyone’s job and listens to the coaching staff’s instructions.

Once he has the puck under control, Holloway features a relatively wide skating base and accelerates with a powerful stride and above-average straight-line speed. His first step is quick, and he can make instant directional changes, tight turns, and pivot on a dime while moving at top speed, all while maintaining control of the puck during these difficult maneuvers. His skating most certainly is a strong suit, and his escapability along the boards while taking hard shoves reveals his elite balance.

Born into a family with NHL bloodlines — his father Bruce briefly played for the Vancouver Canucks in 1985 — Dylan is a very good playmaker with excellent vision. He is an accurate passer who also can create chances off his backhand, and he plays with his head up at all times. Holloway’s aforementioned positioning is critical to his ability to retrieve pucks and jumpstart the attack into open ice, but he’s also proven to turn seemingly-harmless board battles into a a prime opportunity near the net for his linemates or a cutting defender. On the power play, Holloway can orchestrate from the half wall or behind the net, but from the circles he owns an excellent shot (either wrister or slapshot) that makes him difficult to predict. He uses his size to his advantage when battling for low-slot positioning, and his competitiveness in one-on-one battles typically spells trouble for opponents. One underrated aspect of his game is his trickery with the puck in tight spaces, as he is confident enough to try and slip backdoor or blind passes through the legs of unassuming defenders.
 
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MatchesMalone

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I could see the Sens being higher on Dylan Holloway than Anton Lundell. Holloway has under rated offensive skill and plays an in your face physical style. The commentary on him reminds me of the commentary on Brady Tkachuk prior to being drafted. Many scouting services had them ranked high, many had questions about their offensive upside based on their NCAA stats, many argued against those critics claiming they would have strong offensive numbers if they were playing in the CHL. I could see the Sens being much higher on him than many on here.
2020 Draft Profile: LW/C Dylan Holloway - The Draft Analyst



Yeah that's true. Holloway would be very much a Sens type of pick. But I dunno, how high would be too high to take him?

I've seen him play a few times and always love his game. I think he's a surefire NHL player, but I'm part of the contingent that questions his offensive upside. I could easily see 50-60 points and a very valuable player with a ton of intangibles. But I don't really see him as a major offensive catalyst.

Maybe if the San Jose pick fell to eight or nine, or do you think he could go even higher?
 

RAFI BOMB

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Yeah that's true. Holloway would be very much a Sens type of pick. But I dunno, how high would be too high to take him?

I've seen him play a few times and always love his game. I think he's a surefire NHL player, but I'm part of the contingent that questions his offensive upside. I could easily see 50-60 points and a very valuable player with a ton of intangibles. But I don't really see him as a major offensive catalyst.

Maybe if the San Jose pick fell to eight or nine, or do you think he could go even higher?
I'm not sure how high he could get drafted. At this point I could see him going in the 8 to 12 range. I do think the Sens would be higher on Holloway than Lundell though.
 

JungleBeat

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I'm not sure how high he could get drafted. At this point I could see him going in the 8 to 12 range. I do think the Sens would be higher on Holloway than Lundell though.
That would be a major mistake. Any reason why you think that other than the Sens draft history in the US?
 

Erik Alfredsson

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Yeah maybe you're right. But all indications based on what I've seen and heard are that size won't be a serious issue with him. He seems like a pretty safe bet to at least be a top nine NHL forward, even worst-ish case scenario, with a ton of upside. Great work ethic, great defensive forward, a pitbull in front of the net. Seems like a Dorion type pick, I guess aside from the height.

It's funny, I distinctly remember an interview with Dorion from around 2014 or so where he said that Bryan Murray said to him "Pierre, no more small guys" or something to that effect. Interesting that Dorion has held to that with Murray no longer around.

I don't think size will be an issue for Rossi, but his lack of speed in combination with his small size kind of worries me. Other than that, he's one of the safest picks in the draft, hard working, smart with the puck, great positionally, strong on his feet.
 

Yak

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I say we should be ALL-In for Lafreniere no matter the cost. I would swap picks and give a extra 1st round pick and later pick. Guys like this are elite players that make teams better right away and championship teams. Heck I may even give up 3 1st round picks for him!
 

RAFI BOMB

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That would be a major mistake. Any reason why you think that other than the Sens draft history in the US?
What would be a major mistake? Are you referring to drafting Holloway ahead of Lundell? Or are you referring to drafting Holloway in the 8 to 12 range?
 

RAFI BOMB

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Holloway ahead of Lundell.
I'm not that high on Lundell. I have seen some clips and read some reports and I haven't been persuaded. At this point I would take Holloway over him.

You seem to be high on him so if you have an argument as to why I should be higher on him and/or some clips that you feel demonstrate why he should be drafted early I am all ears and would be happy to check them out.
 
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MatchesMalone

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Well, for my part, I'm a pretty big Lundell fan myself. I have him ranked seventh. I don't expect to convince anyone but I can say a little bit about what I like from him. Just for starters, for the past couple months he's been a top six center for a Liiga team at 18. He's second on HIFK in faceoff percentage at 53.4% and second in the league in corsi at 62.8%.

As I've mentioned before, offensively the thing that stands out is how good he is in front of the net. Wherewithal is the word I keep using. A lot of players can stand in front of the net, but when the puck suddenly ends up in their vicinity, most are just trying to jam it in. Lundell is one of those rare cases who needs very little time or space to corral the puck, maybe make a little fake, pull it across the crease / around the goalie, and lift it up if necessary.

His other key strength offensively is his hockey sense and positioning. I've heard that skating is a weakness, but I've hardly ever noticed it because he always seems to be in the right place at the right time. Not an elite stickhandler by any means but he can make plays on the puck in tight spaces, and I've seen him pull off a couple of basic dekes successfully at the pro level.

But then of course his biggest strength is his defensive play. Again, hockey sense and positioning are key here. As the center he stays low in the zone, supports his defensemen and defends the front of the net well. But the thing that really sets him apart here is how dogged he is on the puck. No matter what zone, he never gives up on a play. Never an easy transition for his opponent, and when you notice this it is pretty apparent why he's second in Liiga in corsi.

To me Holloway and Lundell aren't that far apart. I mean I have Lundell at the start of the second tier and Holloway at the tail end of it, but I would say they are both safe bets to be good NHL players, maybe in the 50-60 point range as a rough estimate. But I see a little more room for upside from Lundell.

They're both pretty unique players, and coaches will love them both, for different reasons. Holloway has a little bit of that Glenn Anderson in him - skates like an all-star, crashes the net like a grinder. Lundell could end up something like a less powerful Kopitar or less skilled Toews.
 
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RAFI BOMB

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An interesting note on Lafreniere. His shooting percentage this season is the lowest in his career in the QMJHL. In 2017-2018 he had 205 shots on goal with a 20.5% shooting percentage, he followed that up in the 2018 playoffs with 23 SH and and 17.4 SH%. In 2018-2019 he had 208 SH and 17.8 SH%, and followed that up in the 2019 playoffs with 44 SH and 20.5 SH%. This season he has 226 SH and only a 12.8 SH%.
LHJMQ – Incluant la couverture en direct des matchs, des clips audio et vidéo nouvelles exclusives, billets, statistiques, classements, horaires et autres.
So Lafreniere could have been producing better than he currently is if his shooting percentage was more in line with his previous season performances.
 

RAFI BOMB

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Well, for my part, I'm a pretty big Lundell fan myself. I have him ranked seventh. I don't expect to convince anyone but I can say a little bit about what I like from him. Just for starters, for the past couple months he's been a top six center for a Liiga team at 18. He's second on HIFK in faceoff percentage at 53.4% and second in the league in corsi at 62.8%.

As I've mentioned before, offensively the thing that stands out is how good he is in front of the net. Wherewithal is the word I keep using. A lot of players can stand in front of the net, but when the puck suddenly ends up in their vicinity, most are just trying to jam it in. Lundell is one of those rare cases who needs very little time or space to corral the puck, maybe make a little fake, pull it across the crease / around the goalie, and lift it up if necessary.

His other key strength offensively is his hockey sense and positioning. I've heard that skating is a weakness, but I've hardly ever noticed it because he always seems to be in the right place at the right time. Not an elite stickhandler by any means but he can make plays on the puck in tight spaces, and I've seen him pull off a couple of basic dekes successfully at the pro level.

But then of course his biggest strength is his defensive play. Again, hockey sense and positioning are key here. As the center he stays low in the zone, supports his defensemen and defends the front of the net well. But the thing that really sets him apart here is how dogged he is on the puck. No matter what zone, he never gives up on a play. Never an easy transition for his opponent, and when you notice this it is pretty apparent why he's second in Liiga in corsi.

To me Holloway and Lundell aren't that far apart. I mean I have Lundell at the start of the second tier and Holloway at the tail end of it, but I would say they are both safe bets to be good NHL players, maybe in the 50-60 point range as a rough estimate. But I see a little more room for upside from Lundell.

They're both pretty unique players, and coaches will love them both, for different reasons. Holloway has a little bit of that Glenn Anderson in him - skates like an all-star, crashes the net like a grinder. Lundell could end up something like a less powerful Kopitar or less skilled Toews.

At the start of your write up you commented on his play in front of the net. How would you compare him with Tkachuk?
 

MatchesMalone

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At the start of your write up you commented on his play in front of the net. How would you compare him with Tkachuk?

Well, different. He's not as big and strong as Tkachuk, and it remains to be seen how he'll hold up to the physical toll of playing in that area at the NHL level. I also don't recall seeing many chances created off deflections. He's not going to have the same kind volume of chances from that area.

Tkachuk is more park himself in front, crash and bang, and Lundell is a bit more finesse. He will occasionally just post up, but mostly he'll kind of hover between the side of the net and the high slot and jump into soft spots.

He's also not always just thinking shot when he gets the puck in front. He's poised enough that I've once or twice seen the puck land on his stick in front and he taps it across to a teammate for a wide open net. Nothing like Tkachuk's tip pass, but that was next level.

On a somewhat related side note, I find it hilarious that the 5'10 Lucas Raymond is the player for this draft that I most often see just plant himself in front of the goalie, like he thinks he's 6'3 or something. And then you have the monstrous Quinton Byfield playing the point on the powerplay and flying by the net like it's going out of style. Just saying...
 
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JungleBeat

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I'm not that high on Lundell. I have seen some clips and read some reports and I haven't been persuaded. At this point I would take Holloway over him.

You seem to be high on him so if you have an argument as to why I should be higher on him and/or some clips that you feel demonstrate why he should be drafted early I am all ears and would be happy to check them out.
I was hoping to get Holloway with San Jose 1st at the start of the season but now their pick is looking like it’ll be in the top 10. Lundell is extremely poised with the puck and has good offensive and defensive hockey sense. I can’t justify taking Holloway over him when he’s struggling a bit in the NCAA. Either way I trust the scouts will make the right choice.
 
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Burrowsaurus

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There is a lot of competition in the top 4 though. I still think Raymond and Stutzle would be impossible to pass on, and I'm higher on Rossi than some. Dysdale and Holtz are certainly in the mix as well, but to each their own.
my only argument against holtz is that (and renember, limited viewings, seen isolation videos and reports and WJC) is that Holtz looks like he has a specialty. hes a scorer. complimentary. we are not "one piece away" we dont need "missing pieces" we need " THEE piece" someone who can dominate a shift, make the people around them better. Holtz and Drysdale may be the two im not crazy about although I wouldn't be disappointed with Drysdale I really think we need two dominant forwards in this first round. 2 guys that can make our top 6 tick for the next ten years.
 

Wondercarrot

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my only argument against holtz is that (and renember, limited viewings, seen isolation videos and reports and WJC) is that Holtz looks like he has a specialty. hes a scorer. complimentary. we are not "one piece away" we dont need "missing pieces" we need " THEE piece" someone who can dominate a shift, make the people around them better. Holtz and Drysdale may be the two im not crazy about although I wouldn't be disappointed with Drysdale I really think we need two dominant forwards in this first round. 2 guys that can make our top 6 tick for the next ten years.

its funny you say that as Scott Wheeler has an article out on the athletic talking abt the top 60 picks and specifically discusses this perception of Holtz who he has ranked 4th
Wheeler: Midseason ranking for the 2020 NHL Draft's top 62...
4. Alexander Holtz — RW/LW, Djurgårdens IF, 6-foot

I think there can be a little bit too much made of Holtz’s ability to shoot and score. There has developed this narrative around his skill set that he’s a pure scorer, or that he may need his linemates to get him the puck. In the process, I think there are other elements of his game that don’t get enough love. He likes to spot-up on the power play and pound his one-timer, for sure, and he’s a catch-and-release shooter inside the offensive zone at even-strength. But he also plays on the inside, he’s got a net-driven attack mentality to offense and he’s comfortable hanging onto the puck and making a play as a passer. There are also times when he knows a defender is likely to overcorrect to him and he’ll hang onto the puck that extra second to force them to reach in on him and draw a penalty as they try to prevent him from getting his shot off. He has also improved his skating mechanics from a standstill, which has helped create more rush chances for himself. Watch how he bursts to the loose puck here before making the right decision when faced with three options (shoot, pass cross-crease or find the trailer): clip not included here.
 
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Burrowsaurus

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its funny you say that as Scott Wheeler has an article out on the athletic talking abt the top 60 picks and specifically discusses this perception of Holtz who he has ranked 4th
Wheeler: Midseason ranking for the 2020 NHL Draft's top 62...
4. Alexander Holtz — RW/LW, Djurgårdens IF, 6-foot

I think there can be a little bit too much made of Holtz’s ability to shoot and score. There has developed this narrative around his skill set that he’s a pure scorer, or that he may need his linemates to get him the puck. In the process, I think there are other elements of his game that don’t get enough love. He likes to spot-up on the power play and pound his one-timer, for sure, and he’s a catch-and-release shooter inside the offensive zone at even-strength. But he also plays on the inside, he’s got a net-driven attack mentality to offense and he’s comfortable hanging onto the puck and making a play as a passer. There are also times when he knows a defender is likely to overcorrect to him and he’ll hang onto the puck that extra second to force them to reach in on him and draw a penalty as they try to prevent him from getting his shot off. He has also improved his skating mechanics from a standstill, which has helped create more rush chances for himself. Watch how he bursts to the loose puck here before making the right decision when faced with three options (shoot, pass cross-crease or find the trailer): clip not included here.
yeah there you go lol im sure wheeler has seen a ton more than I
 

GCK

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An interesting note on Lafreniere. His shooting percentage this season is the lowest in his career in the QMJHL. In 2017-2018 he had 205 shots on goal with a 20.5% shooting percentage, he followed that up in the 2018 playoffs with 23 SH and and 17.4 SH%. In 2018-2019 he had 208 SH and 17.8 SH%, and followed that up in the 2019 playoffs with 44 SH and 20.5 SH%. This season he has 226 SH and only a 12.8 SH%.
LHJMQ – Incluant la couverture en direct des matchs, des clips audio et vidéo nouvelles exclusives, billets, statistiques, classements, horaires et autres.
So Lafreniere could have been producing better than he currently is if his shooting percentage was more in line with his previous season performances.
Could the lower SH% be due to the higher shot total. What I mean by that is perhaps he is shooting more from lower percentage areas ? Just a thought.
 
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