Red Sox/MLB 2020 Hot Stove VII - The Mookie dilemma: Red Sox face franchise-changing decision

[Smitty93]

Potential Betts-to-Padres deal coming into focus

Betts is arguably the game's best right fielder, and he's easily one of the five most valuable players in the sport. But the Padres' front office is acutely aware that dealing for the 2018 American League MVP would only give them one year of production.

With the bigger picture in mind, they've ruled out top-tier prospects like MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño and CJ Abrams -- and possibly others -- from inclusion in a Betts deal. But according to sources, both sides feel the Padres' deep system boasts a second tier of prospects and young Major Leaguers who could work in a deal.

The sticking point might be Wil Myers, the seven-year big leaguer who is also part of these trade discussions. Myers has three years and $61 million remaining on his contract, and if he went to Boston, the Padres would need to eat a chunk of that salary. Just how much? Well, that's part of the issue.

In any case, that discussion gives us a fairly clear picture of what the Padres' package for Betts might look like: a prospect or two (say, catcher Luis Campusano and/or lefty Adrian Morejon), a controllable big league piece or two (say, Josh Naylor and/or Joey Lucchesi) and Myers plus cash.​

I forgot to mention that it's interesting that Padres writers keep coming out with new articles. It seems like Bloom's Red Sox aren't going to be very leaky, but it feels like Preller (via leaks) is trying to speak it into existence.

 

[LouJersey]

They've been considering trading him since the season ended. There were early rumors about the Dodgers, but it's been quiet for a while. I would guess part of it is hoping that Betts would agree to a deal and the other part is that they simply haven't received an offer that's good enough to take yet.

I guess I just don't understand why they wouldn't sign him or at least give him a fair offer. The Red Sox over the years have buried garbage contracts in the tens of millions but all of a sudden they are worried about how a guy will perform at 33-34 years old so they will cut bait at 27? He's a top 5 player in baseball, that you won with and should build around. When did the Red Sox actually care about a guy maybe "not being worth it"? Betts will surely be worth it for a long time, no? Where does this leave the other guys? Try to lock up Devers to an Acuna type deal?

 

[KrejciMVP]

SD probably cant wait to trade these prospects for Betts. I bet if they believed theyd be solid major league talent they wouldn't rush to deal them for 1 year of Betts

 

[Smitty93]

I guess I just don't understand why they wouldn't sign him or at least give him a fair offer. The Red Sox over the years have buried garbage contracts in the tens of millions but all of a sudden they are worried about how a guy will perform at 33-34 years old so they will cut bait at 27? He's a top 5 player in baseball, that you won with and should build around. When did the Red Sox actually care about a guy maybe "not being worth it"? Betts will surely be worth it for a long time, no? Where does this leave the other guys? Try to lock up Devers to an Acuna type deal?

I feel like this is a good explanation of how the Red Sox treat their own players versus other free agents (with a few exceptions).



In all seriousness, in their minds they have given him a fair offer. Reality says it isn't. Imagine the Red Sox as the sports embodiment of bipolar disorder.

 

[Gator Mike]

That's garbage. You walk away then and deal him at the deadline. He's a top five player in all of baseball and you're not getting any of the cream of the crop? Bloom better stand firm, if his first major move is dealing Betts for a 5th, 8th and 12th prospect and middle of the rotation starter then he's in over his head.

Betts' value goes down the moment the season starts because then the Padres or Dodgers couldn't receive a compensatory draft pick for letting him leave.

That, and the Padres are stacked. They have young players who are already in the Majors, and their 5th, 8th, and 12th rated prospects would probably be most teams' 2nd, 3rd, and 6th.

Again, look at what Arizona got for Goldschmidt. I think the Red Sox can expect to get more... but not drastically more.

When did the Red Sox actually care about a guy maybe "not being worth it"?

Maybe when they figured out that paying guys who weren't worth it was leading them to 84-win teams that had a $240 million payroll? When they fired Dave Dombrowski and hired Chaim Bloom?

And yeah... I think Mookie will continue to be really, really good for a number of years. But there's a real argument to be made against committing 20% of your payroll for the next 10 years to a guy who's already 28.

 

[KrejciMVP]

Betts' value goes down the moment the season starts because then the Padres or Dodgers couldn't receive a compensatory draft pick for letting him leave.

That, and the Padres are stacked. They have young players who are already in the Majors, and their 5th, 8th, and 12th rated prospects would probably be most teams' 2nd, 3rd, and 6th.

Again, look at what Arizona got for Goldschmidt. I think the Red Sox can expect to get more... but not drastically more.


Maybe when they figured out that paying guys who weren't worth it was leading them to 84-win teams that had a $240 million payroll? When they fired Dave Dombrowski and hired Chaim Bloom?

And yeah... I think Mookie will continue to be really, really good for a number of years. But there's a real argument to be made against committing 20% of your payroll for the next 10 years to a guy who's already 28.

they won 70 games last year. They aren't stacked and if these prospects were the answer to getting better they'd keep them around

 

[smithformeragent]

Merloni is hitting the nail on the head.

They have a good enough lineup with or without Betts.

Their success will come down to Sale and Price.

A lot of this with Betts is just rotten timing. Can’t go back and undo the Price, Sale, Evoldi, and Pedroia contracts at this point. They’re saddled with those contracts.

Chaim Bloom didn’t back himself into this corner, but it’s his job to build a club that can compete long term. He’s got to play the hand he’s dealt.

 

[Smitty93]

Maybe when they figured out that paying guys who weren't worth it was leading them to 84-win teams that had a $240 million payroll? When they fired Dave Dombrowski and hired Chaim Bloom?

And yeah... I think Mookie will continue to be really, really good for a number of years. But there's a real argument to be made against committing 20% of your payroll for the next 10 years to a guy who's already 28.

This is probably an underrated aspect of all of this, but I think the problem is that it assumes they'll spend that money wisely. I'm sure Bloom has a strategy to utilize their money better, but history tells me that this ownership group will demand a major signing a year from now, and that money really won't be spent on something better. Just like with the Price/Lester decision, we'd be looking back at this and wonder why they just didn't sign their own guy that they knew could handle playing in Boston.

 

[Gator Mike]

they won 70 games last year. They aren't stacked and if these prospects were the answer to getting better they'd keep them around

Their farm system is stacked.

These teams have MLB’s Top 10 farm systems

But it's possible to have too much of a good thing. For instance, they have Fernando Tatis at Shortstop. He's a future star. That means they might be willing to part with someone like CJ Abrams or Jake Cronenworth, who are good prospects in their own right, but not at the level of Tatis. They're blocked. They might have more value to the Padres as trade chips to fill in other parts of their roster.

They have a 23-year old catcher named Francisco Mejia, who just finished his rookie season. He was a Top 50 prospect last season. That might mean that a kid like Luis Campusano is available.

They think they've got two top of the rotation starters on the way in Mackenzie Gore and Luis Patino. They've already got young, middle of the rotation pitchers on the roster in Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, and Cal Quantrill. Maybe that means guys like Adrian Morejon and/or Michael Baez could be had.

They're not untalented. They're just young.

 

[KrejciMVP]

Their farm system is stacked.

These teams have MLB’s Top 10 farm systems

But it's possible to have too much of a good thing. For instance, they have Fernando Tatis at Shortstop. He's a future star. That means they might be willing to part with someone like CJ Abrams or Jake Cronenworth, who are good prospects in their own right, but not at the level of Tatis. They're blocked. They might have more value to the Padres as trade chips to fill in other parts of their roster.

They have a 23-year old catcher named Francisco Mejia, who just finished his rookie season. He was a Top 50 prospect last season. That might mean that a kid like Luis Campusano is available.

They think they've got two top of the rotation starters on the way in Mackenzie Gore and Luis Patino. They've already got young, middle of the rotation pitchers on the roster in Chris Paddack, Joey Lucchesi, and Cal Quantrill. Maybe that means guys like Adrian Morejon and/or Michael Baez could be had.

They're not untalented. They're just young.

If they are all great as you say, why do they want to trade them for 1 years of Betts?

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

 

[Chevalier du Clavier]

Baker to manage the Astros is official.

 

[Smitty93]

That Sandoval signing was so stupid. At least Hanley kind of made sense. Sandoval was just a weird Werner obsession.

 

[LouJersey]

This is probably an underrated aspect of all of this, but I think the problem is that it assumes they'll spend that money wisely. I'm sure Bloom has a strategy to utilize their money better, but history tells me that this ownership group will demand a major signing a year from now, and that money really won't be spent on something better. Just like with the Price/Lester decision, we'd be looking back at this and wonder why they just didn't sign their own guy that they knew could handle playing in Boston.

Who are they going to spend money on though? Their farm system stinks and only Devers figures to get paid big money from this group. Might as well spend it on a guy you know produces like Betts

 

[Smitty93]

Who are they going to spend money on though? Their farm system stinks and only Devers figures to get paid big money from this group. Might as well spend it on a guy you know produces like Betts

I'm talking about free agents. Players not currently on the team or in the system. John Henry and Tom Werner love their flashy signings.

I'm 100% with you on Betts. There are no certainties with long term deals, but Betts is as much of a certainty as there is. You know he can perform here. The question is all about whether/when he declines. With free agent signings, we know from experience how much some players struggle to play here, so you're not just worried about whether they can continue to play well for the duration of the deal, you're worried about if they can play here at all. That's the problem, and it's likely worth overpaying Betts for that certainty. It's the old 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush'.

 

[RockLobster]

I guess Buster thinks the Dodgers are a good shot to get him...

 

[Gator Mike]

If they are all great as you say, why do they want to trade them for 1 years of Betts?

A couple of possible reasons:

1. The GM is under pressure to win this year. They apparently kicked the tires on Francisco Lindor this winter, but the Indians are asking for a ton of money. From their perspective, I think they figure in the worst case scenario, they can save some cash, and four months if they're out of the playoff race, they can trade him to try and recoup some of the prospects they give to the Red Sox.

2. They really want to rid themselves of Wil Myers' contract in order to save money, and are willing to give the Red Sox second tier prospects to make that happen.

 

[cheg1349]

I guess Buster thinks the Dodgers are a good shot to get him...

Quick, someone ask him the same question about the Padres. He'd probably just go with the same answer

 

[Gator Mike]

I mean, the Dodgers have always made sense... and as Rosenthal said this morning, it would certainly be a cleaner, easier deal to make.

 

[Mr Cartmenez]

If they can get back Campusano, Morejon, Naylor/Grisham, Lucchesi/Quantrill, and a competitive balance pick I’d be satisfied. That’s a good haul for any one year of a player. That’s 2 strong prospects, a young OF, a youngish cost controlled starting pitcher, and a significant boost to your draft pool (I think slot 35 is $1.5 mill). Then whatever Myers does is gravy. Maybe he turns it around at Fenway and goes back to being a useful bat. He’s got negative value in RF but at 1B he should be a positive player If the bat bounces back


If you’re trying to sustain yourself for the long term that’s not a bad deal

Quantity over quality does not have to necessarily be a bad thing and the deal you proposed is far from bad value (I think the comp balance pick might be in the 30's range, but I could be off), but I am not sure I would pull the trigger on guys that are very unlikely to become more than above average. Campusano raked in a hitters heaven. Numbers are skewed in some minor league parks.

As I said, it is not necessarily a bad deal, but why would we need multiple players who are more of the same? I wouldn't be happy if Campusano was the headliner of a trade for Betts. It has got to be one of Patino or Trammel or Abrams. If that is wishful thinking, then go pound sand and find your top 5 player somewhere else. Of course teams would have to overpay for Betts/success, because the best possible outcome (playoffs/world series) is infinitely more valuable than some prospects. That's why it's tough to value trades properly.
In terms of value (WAR or whatever), the White Sox will probably win the Sale-trade in the long-run, but Sale got us a title (even though he wasn't really that effective in the playoffs during the run), so I would make that trade over and over again without thinking twice.

I honestly wonder why people are so outraged that we want value for Betts, even if it's a year. Teams do that ALL THE TIME at the deadline for friggin relievers.

 

[DKH]

Quick, someone ask him the same question about the Padres. He'd probably just go with the same answer

Dodgers better situation all around

he will resign there

book it

return will be very good

 

[DKH]

I mean, the Dodgers have always made sense... and as Rosenthal said this morning, it would certainly be a cleaner, easier deal to make.

Agree 100%

this is a perfect match if they are dealing and their GM was our GM boss

 

[Smitty93]

So I did a quick Google search to remind myself of the last Dodger rumored offer, and this article was the first thing that popped up. Let's just be grateful that with all of the offers we've discussed/suggested, none of us are as dumb as that guy. Woof.

 

[CDJ]

Agree 100%

this is a perfect match if they are dealing and their GM was our GM boss

yup, the Friedman-Bloom connection could come in handy

Somebody asked Olney 1-10 on the likelihood he ends up a dodger, he said 8.5

 

[DKH]

yup, the Friedman-Bloom connection could come in handy

Somebody asked Olney 1-10 on the likelihood he ends up a dodger, he said 8.5

Will be interesting if Verdugo ends up in this