2020 Entry Draft Thread Part 8

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

If I had a dollar for : if X improves his shot.

Add skating to the mix.

Add "figures it out", as well.

However,players bot draft top 3, or even 1st overall and sometimes even then have issues they need to work on.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I can’t see Sanderson still being on the board at pick 9. I think there’s a far better chance of one of the Swedes or Rossi still being there.

This is that worst case scenario from a consensus standpoint. Just curious where people are at.

 

[Frank JT]

If Montreal beat Pittsburg, de we get the 16th and the 46th, 77th, 108th, (etc.) instead of 9th, 39th, 70th, 101th, (etc.)? I'm not sure...

 

[le_sean]

This is that worst case scenario from a consensus standpoint. Just curious where people are at.

I’d take Sanderson but would still be happy with Quinn.

Interesting thing I read about Quinn on the prospect board. He didn’t make the OHL as a 16 year old (he was 5’8). Ended up in Jr. A and won ROY. Makes OHL at 17, starts the season at 5’9. Is a good 3rd liner on a good team until the 67s decide to add more veteran depth, pushing him down to the 4th line where his production stalls. He ends the season at 5’11. This season he had something like 40 goals in his last 41 games and reportedly is now 6’0, maybe 6’1. So yes he’s “older” but that is one heck of an upward trajectory once he started taking hockey seriously and growing/working out.

 

[Hacketts]

I've officially had my first Habs nightmare in my 32 years on this earth.

The Leafs won the first overall pick, and we picked 2nd. Hindsight, not a terrible outcome..

But that feeling I felt when I saw that leafs logo shown on that card was something I don't want anyone ever to experience.. ever!

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I’d take Sanderson but would still be happy with Quinn.

Interesting thing I read about Quinn on the prospect board. He didn’t make the OHL as a 16 year old (he was 5’8). Ended up in Jr. A and won ROY. Makes OHL at 17, starts the season at 5’9. Is a good 3rd liner on a good team until the 67s decide to add more veteran depth, pushing him down to the 4th line where his production stalls. He ends the season at 5’11. This season he had something like 40 goals in his last 41 games and reportedly is now 6’0, maybe 6’1. So yes he’s “older” but that is one heck of an upward trajectory once he started taking hockey seriously and growing/working out.

Ya I love that in a prospect. The “development” literally already happened

 

[1000eeer]

I think that we've got a pretty good shot at Raymond if we stay at 9th.

Scenario 1:
X. Lafrenière
2. LA = Stützle
3. Ottawa = Byfield
4. Detroit = Rossi
5. Ottawa = Drysdale
6. Anaheim = Holtz
7. NJ = Askarov
8. Buffalo = Sanderson
9. Montreal = Raymond

Although Buffalo is a wild card here... they swing for Raymond. But they lack leadership and are horrible defensively. If Sanderson was a RD, then I'd bet a lot of money that Sanderson would be Buffalo's pick.

Where do you see Perfetti going? I have a hard time figuring out...

Scenario 2:
X. Lafrenière
2. LA = Stützle
3. Ottawa = Byfield
4. Detroit = Rossi
5. Ottawa = Drysdale
6. Anaheim = Perfetti
7. NJ = Askarov
8. Buffalo = Holtz
9. Montreal = Raymond

 

[Maitz]

You’d pick a goalie in the Top 10 with the goal of him splitting time with a goalie picked in the 7th round?

If you pick a goalie in the Top 10, he better be starting 70 games a year.

Goaltender with 70 games a year will not exist in 2-3 years. Primeau is far from being a sure thing. It’s the idea of picking the prospect with the higher ceiling

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Can’t wait until we pass on Quinn who becomes a star and everyone defends Timmins and blames development on why the guy we took busted lol

 

[ahmedou]

The English subtitles is available. It's the CC button.

 

[Genghis Keon]

I’d take Sanderson but would still be happy with Quinn.

Interesting thing I read about Quinn on the prospect board. He didn’t make the OHL as a 16 year old (he was 5’8). Ended up in Jr. A and won ROY. Makes OHL at 17, starts the season at 5’9. Is a good 3rd liner on a good team until the 67s decide to add more veteran depth, pushing him down to the 4th line where his production stalls. He ends the season at 5’11. This season he had something like 40 goals in his last 41 games and reportedly is now 6’0, maybe 6’1. So yes he’s “older” but that is one heck of an upward trajectory once he started taking hockey seriously and growing/working out.

I really like Jack Quinn, but my concern is fan expectations. He has good tools, but it's hard not to be dazzled by his crazy goal totals. He's got a great shot, is a great scorer, but if he shot 15% last year (which is higher than Lefreniere, who shot 13.4%), his line would have been GP-62 G-36 A-37 PTS-73. He'd be the exact same player with the exact same shot and the exact same scoring ability, but with a little less luck, he'd look a lot more pedestrian. He's not going to keep shooting 22% in the future, especially as a pro, and I think a lot of people will be disappointed in his raw totals, even if he develops well and is still a hell of a player.

 

[calder candidate]

If Montreal beat Pittsburg, de we get the 16th and the 46th, 77th, 108th, (etc.) instead of 9th, 39th, 70th, 101th, (etc.)? I'm not sure...

Falling for 9 to 16th is rough but falling in all the other round especially 2 and 3 could really hurt as well.

 

[le_sean]

Goaltender with 70 games a year will not exist in 2-3 years. Primeau is far from being a sure thing. It’s the idea of picking the prospect with the higher ceiling

Then it’s a waste of premium draft capital if you’re not going to use a Top 10 pick goalie as a workhorse. If the position value is going down, then you need to draft accordingly.

 

[le_sean]

I really like Jack Quinn, but my concern is fan expectations. He has good tools, but it's hard not to be dazzled by his crazy goal totals. He's got a great shot, is a great scorer, but if he shot 15% last year (which is higher than Lefreniere, who shot 13.4%), his line would have been GP-62 G-36 A-37 PTS-73. He'd be the exact same player with the exact same shot and the exact same scoring ability, but with a little less luck, he'd look a lot more pedestrian. He's not going to keep shooting 22% in the future, especially as a pro, and I think a lot of people will be disappointed in his raw totals, even if he develops well and is still a hell of a player.

But he still got those goal totals. We can’t just take them away because we don’t like his shooting percentage. It’s what you get with goal scorers. They shoot a lot, sometimes a lot go in, sometimes you get in a funk, just the nature of the type of player. But they went in for Quinn, so maybe his shot selection is great or maybe he’s elite at placing himself in high scoring areas. The fact remains he scored the 2nd most goals in the OHL in his 2nd season despite playing on the 2nd line.

 

[Carl182]

But he still got those goal totals. We can’t just take them away because we don’t like his shooting percentage. It’s what you get with goal scorers. They shoot a lot, sometimes a lot go in, sometimes you get in a funk, just the nature of the type of player. But they went in for Quinn, so maybe his shot selection is great or maybe he’s elite at placing himself in high scoring areas. The fact remains he scored the 2nd most goals in the OHL in his 2nd season despite playing on the 2nd line.

Am I the only one concerned he doesn't play against the opposition best lines like other top CHL prospects?

 

[McGees]

I think that we've got a pretty good shot at Raymond if we stay at 9th.

Scenario 1:
X. Lafrenière
2. LA = Stützle
3. Ottawa = Byfield
4. Detroit = Rossi
5. Ottawa = Drysdale
6. Anaheim = Holtz
7. NJ = Askarov
8. Buffalo = Sanderson
9. Montreal = Raymond

Although Buffalo is a wild card here... they swing for Raymond. But they lack leadership and are horrible defensively. If Sanderson was a RD, then I'd bet a lot of money that Sanderson would be Buffalo's pick.

Where do you see Perfetti going? I have a hard time figuring out...

Scenario 2:
X. Lafrenière
2. LA = Stützle
3. Ottawa = Byfield
4. Detroit = Rossi
5. Ottawa = Drysdale
6. Anaheim = Perfetti
7. NJ = Askarov
8. Buffalo = Holtz
9. Montreal = Raymond

Detroit rumoured to like Perfetti.

 

[Adam Michaels]

Falling for 9 to 16th is rough but falling in all the other round especially 2 and 3 could really hurt as well.

Picking early in each round is better than picking later. That is true. But in the 2nd round and later, it's not as bad because in those rounds, there is a wide range of players that can be taken at any rank. It's not as specific as the 1st round, particularly the first half of the 1st round.

Josh Brook was taken in the middle of the 2nd round.
Fleury was taken late in the 3rd round.
Caufield was taken in the middle of the 1st round.
Struble was taken in the middle of the 2nd round.

And in 2018, Habs were picking early in each round. They got Ylonen and Romanov early in the 2nd round. Love both picks. But had they picked in the middle or late 2nd that year, some guys who were available and I believe we would have been happy with: Akil Thomas, Calen Addison, Sean Durzi, and Benoit-Olivier Groulx.

The 2nd rounds or later isn't too bad where you're picking.

 

[le_sean]

Am I the only one concerned he doesn't play against the opposition best lines like other top CHL prospects?

Not sure line matching is much of a thing in the OHL. Top defensive pairings, okay, but if they are top defenders, they tend to play 30 mins a game. I remember Dobson was playing like 30-35 mins each game.

 

[ahmedou]

NHLe is garbage.

What's the best hockey data?

 

[ahmedou]

Heavily flawed statistics if Rossi has more of a chance to make the NHL and play 100 games than Lafreniere.

I couldn't hide this with my screenshot. I don't pay attention at that at all. I'm focused at the style of play data

 

[ahmedou]

If I had a dollar for : if X improves his shot.

I'mma bring up more about this and you'll end up losing all your dollars

 

[The Great Weal]

I think Wings will take Perfetti. Sens will likely take Stutzle and Drysdale which was probably what they were going to do if they didnt win Laffy.

 

[Genghis Keon]

But he still got those goal totals. We can’t just take them away because we don’t like his shooting percentage. It’s what you get with goal scorers. They shoot a lot, sometimes a lot go in, sometimes you get in a funk, just the nature of the type of player. But they went in for Quinn, so maybe his shot selection is great or maybe he’s elite at placing himself in high scoring areas. The fact remains he scored the 2nd most goals in the OHL in his 2nd season despite playing on the 2nd line.

That's kind of what I'm getting at. Sometimes they go in and sometimes they don't. This past season, an unsustainable amount went in (because no one shoots 22% sustainably). Next year, he could demonstrably improve by taking 30 more shots and getting the same amount of assists on a worse team while being "the man," but with less puck luck, he could easily put up 40 goals instead of 52. He'd be a better player than this year, but you know that most of the fan base would freak out and think he regressed because the counting stats went down.

 

[ahmedou]

 

[Simarino]

Goaltender with 70 games a year will not exist in 2-3 years. Primeau is far from being a sure thing. It’s the idea of picking the prospect with the higher ceiling

We already have an elite #1 goalie under contract for 6 more years and a top prospect in Primeau, on top of that the value for #1 goalie on the market is fairly low(see Lehner), i don’t think it would be an optimal decision for the Habs to draft a goalie top 10.