2020 ECF: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders | TBL leads 3-2 (Pt.2)

NatoGhost

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Jun 27, 2013
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Sergachev and Cirelli alone will get minimum combined 5-6 million which already puts you over the cap with only 3 of your 6 starting dmen signed for next season. Where are you getting 3 starting dmen to play for 300,000 each?

Your numbers seem off to my recollection. (EDIT: the number off I mean is our projected cap space.)
This has been discussed quite a bit (as all teams close to the cap do i'm sure) on the Lightning forums all year. Prob tighter now with the cap not going where it was expected, and the Lightning will definitely have to make some moves. The trade options usually discussed are Killorn, Johnson, and prior to Palat being healthy and playing great this playoffs, his name was tossed around as well. There are obstacles with TJ and his NTC also has been discussed but yes we have cap issues but the core will remain.

As of right now some players are contributing that we got good deals on which is awesome and how it should be if/when your GM does things the right way and maybe gets some luck too.
 

Sky04

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I find it interesting how all around the league so many people seem to be harping on how the Islanders are in so much trouble with the cap (The Hockey News even had a full story posted yesterday on the topic), yet nothing is mentioned about the Lightning, who are in FAR more trouble than the Isles are. I had to look up Tampa on CapFriendly, because after reading the Hockey News article, I was thinking how could Tampa with all that elite talent not be having cap trouble and the Islanders are facing this many problems. Well, as it turns out, Tampa has...ready for this...10 players signed for next year at a total of 68 million. That means they have 12 million under the cap to sign 10-12 players. You ready for who their free agents list includes? Here goes: Coleman, Paquette, Goodrow, Maroon, Cirelli, Verhaeghe, Sergachev, Cernak, Bogosian, Shattenkirk, Schenn, Rutta and Cernak. That is literally 2/3 of their starting lineup against the Isles in this series. No wonder they are playing like their lives depend on winning the cup this year...because they are f***ed.

Are you ok? Because you know you looked at the 2021-2022 list right?
 

Sky04

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Jan 8, 2009
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Sergachev and Cirelli alone will get minimum combined 5-6 million which already puts you over the cap with only 3 of your 6 starting dmen signed for next season. Where are you getting 3 starting dmen to play for 300,000 each?

Killorn can/will be traded.
 

Krewe

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Mar 12, 2019
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Yeah, the 4th series win can mentally be the hardest to get. Tampa blew up two 3-2 series lead against Pittsburgh and Washington. NYI hasn't proposed such adversity so far, they did rather well in games 2 and 3 though, this series one hot Varlamov away from becoming a nail biter.

For those making a comparison with Columbus, New York can score and they will, despite the appearances CBJ belonged only because of Korpisalo, their offense was absolutely inept.
Helps when one team is missing 3 of their top 6 forwards for 5/6 periods over those two games
 

Five Alarm Fire

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You are correct on the first part. I apologize, I was looking at the wrong year. Still that is a lot of players to replace and not much money to do it. You make it sound like it is easy to recoup depth, but the reason Tampa is probably winning the cup this year as opposed to past years is because of how good their depth is.

Palat - Point - Kucherov
Stamkos - Cirelli - Johnson
Goodrow - Gourde - Coleman
X - Stephens - X

Stamkos coming back makes it look a lot better. We may have a different 4th line next year, but I'm not overly concerned about filling those spots. We have guys in the AHL knocking on the door, and there's always the possibility for a rental.

Hedman - x
McDonagh- Cernak
Sergachev - Foote

Hedman can pretty much play with anyone. I would love to bring Bogosian back, but he might have increased his market value from his playoff run. I could also see us bringing back Schenn for cheap.
 
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Danrs112

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Oct 19, 2017
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Your numbers seem off to my recollection. (EDIT: the number off I mean is our projected cap space.)
This has been discussed quite a bit (as all teams close to the cap do i'm sure) on the Lightning forums all year. Prob tighter now with the cap not going where it was expected, and the Lightning will definitely have to make some moves. The trade options usually discussed are Killorn, Johnson, and prior to Palat being healthy and playing great this playoffs, his name was tossed around as well. There are obstacles with TJ and his NTC also has been discussed but yes we have cap issues but the core will remain.

As of right now some players are contributing that we got good deals on which is awesome and how it should be if/when your GM does things the right way and maybe gets some luck too.

I know players with NTC have to be protected in expansion draft. Not sure how MNTC works though.
 

DFC

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TB wasn't expecting Cirelli and Cernak to get this good, this quickly, and it out-paced the way the NTCs relaxed. So yeah, we're in a little trouble. But we're in a little trouble literally every year. I mean, if we lose Cirelli, but Stamkos comes back next year... Are we really that much worse of a team in the playoffs?
 

BoltsFanPinellasPark

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Apr 18, 2018
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The 8-2 drubbing in game 1 really set the tone for this series IMO. That momentum carried into game 2 which I thought was the Isles best game but clearly it will take more than a 1 or 2 goals to beat the lightning on any given night. I really expected more from the Isles in terms of being able to slow the TB offense. Even without TB playing their best lines in game 3, you still had the feeling that NY was going to need to put up a bunch of goals to win (which they did). NY would need to have the sustained efforts of game 2 and game 3 in the offensive zone and hope to somehow find a way to cancel TB stars in order to just make this a close series. As a Lightning fan, I know this team has been elite for a while. I also know how hard it is to win championships and to sustain the effort needed in the playoffs. I guess I really expected the competition to be a bit tougher this deep into the playoffs. By no means do I think NY is not tough, it just seems like the BOLTS are just not going to be denied. Perhaps game 5 will be the tough OT game that I expected game 4 to be and the Isles can try to make it a series. But really, can the isles put up 3-4 goals against Vasy while TB has it's top lines intact? I really don't think so.
 

flying squirrel

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Feb 11, 2019
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Oh...well there you go then. Wouldnt be surprised if TJ ends up in Seattle.

Yep, I'm afraid Johnson will be left unprotected and taken by Seattle most likely.

Palat - Point - Kucherov
Stamkos - Cirelli - Johnson
Goodrow - Gourde - Coleman
X - Stephens - X

Stamkos coming back makes it look a lot better. We may have a different 4th line next year, but I'm not overly concerned about filling those spots. We have guys in the AHL knocking on the door, and there's always the possibility for a rental.

Hedman - x
McDonagh- Cernak
Sergachev - Foote

Hedman can pretty much play with anyone. I would love to bring Bogosian back, but he might have increased his market value from his playoff run. I could also see us bringing back Schenn for cheap.

I hope the Lightning can find a way to bring Bogo but after these playoffs, this will be difficult. Watching Bogogsian involved in his first playoff while having success has been a pleasure to watch. That one assist Bogo had after the double move, and then passing the puck to a diving Coleman, was one of the best goals in playoffs (Not all assist are equal). Good post, it's nice to see Hockey talk in this thread instead of who's player is getting, or isn't, getting correct media love.
 
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BoltSTH

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Sep 4, 2008
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Killorn can/will be traded.
Also if only 2 of the 3 RFA can fit under the Cap Cernak and Serachev will be signed to bridge contracts, and Cirelli traded to the highest bidder, assuming Stamkos is back a #2 C.
If Stamkos is still injured he can be put on LTIR, and we have no cap issues.
 

KevFu

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May 22, 2009
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I think the biggest difference between Tampa and the NYI besides talent and depth is that Tampa clearly plays like they want it more. NYI have played complacent at times they should've been more deliberate with the puck and on their toes (i.e. game 2) and Tampa has the experience of failure in the past and they've learned what it takes to win. Never let up, put in full effort for the entire game. They're doing that in a way they've never done before, coupled with their talent, depth, and system and it's easy to see they've finally become the team they were supposed to be for the past few seasons.

Sure, the series isn't officially over yet, but they're clearly the better team and should wrap this series up in the next game. No shame in that, the Islanders made it further than 27 other teams and were never expected to make it to the conference finals. They can build on this moving forward and players like Barzal can learn from it.

I agree with a lot of what you said, but the whole "they want it more" is a really silly thing everyone brings up way too often. Every player is a pro, and it's the freaking Cup. There's blood, sweat, injuries, like 50 times a game guys try to block shots with their bodies. If a team looks like they don't want it, it's because the other team is imposing their will. Washington looked like they didn't want to play because we smothered them during that series and crushed their will to live. They wanted it, we just broke them.

Tampa is just better. Everyone with eyes know it, and I'm sure there are blind people who can hear that Tampa is better.

That being said. the narrative of the Islanders being some scrappy little team that doesn't belong in the ECF is also a trash take. "Not being as good as Tampa" is a litmus test that no one else in this league can meet. TB won the President's trophy easily last year, and then spent this regular season adding grit, size, and a better defensive structure to avoid a repeat of the CBJ series. Like, they straight up didn't care if they lost regular season games along the way as they improved their defensive play. For them it was about getting better and better with their structure so they'd be ready for the playoffs, not winning the President's Trophy; because they knew they were good enough to make the playoffs as a top 4 seed even while focusing on "improving our D" over "winning regular season games."

So Tampa is really, really, really good. But the stats do not back up some kind of "Tampa domination."
CF% 51.77 to 48.23
FF% 52.55 to 47.45
xGF% 52.94 to 47.06
HDCF% 52.21 to 47.79

53 to 47 isn't domination, it's a slight edge. Which means the Islanders are actually GOOD, TOO. Just not as good as the best team in the league.

There's one category here that Tampa has been dominating: HDGF% 68.42 to 31.58

Basically, Tampa finishes their chances at a way better clip than the Islanders (Although a lot of that stems from a staggering 87.50% in Game 1) and this is a "well duh" because they (a) they've outscored the Islanders by a lot in the series, and (b) they're more talented and basically what we call "talent" is really just isolating players "finishing ability."

It's also really interesting to me that Tampa has a popular pick for "Best Goalie in the League" and everyone is attributing the difference in finishing to a lack of offensive talent on NYI and not the difference in goaltending between the NYI combo that excels in a system, and TB's elite all-world netminder.
 

BoltsFanPinellasPark

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Apr 18, 2018
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everyone is attributing the difference in finishing to a lack of offensive talent on NYI and not the difference in goaltending between the NYI combo that excels in a system, and TB's elite all-world netminder.

It's odd to me that this is not more of a topic in this series. Vasy certainly benefits a lot from the play in front of him, but it really cannot be overstated just how much of a rock he is. To play with the amount of confidence this team has on D takes a goalie like Vasy who can be trusted to be left alone on a rush by the best forwards in the league and brush them aside.
 

PRZ45MD

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Aug 11, 2016
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Johnson could be replaced by Alex Barre-Boulet who had 68 pts (34-34) and 58 pts (27-29) seasons in the AHL. Barre-Boulet deserve his chance next year
Don't know how much you've watched of SYR and ABB, but ABB is not an NHL Player. Johnson, despite how poor he's been lately, is still an NHL Player. ABB is shifty and smart, but he is not nearly fast enough to make it at the NHL level at his size. If he fixes his first 2-3 strides and finds another gear for his top end, he'd be fantastic. I just haven't seen him improve on those facets of his game.

I hope you're right though. If ABB could fill the spot, that'd be wonderful. I just don't see it being a reality unless something has drastically changed with his explosiveness and top gear skating-wise.
 
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CupsOverCash

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Jun 16, 2009
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Tb has some cap issues going forward but its not because of poor players being paid too much. Its simply because we have too many good players young and old. Scary thing is if tampa can clear the salary of Johnson and Killorn, then they should be able to re-sign some key rfas. Even if not our core consists of Point, Kucherov, Hedman, Vasi, and for the most part Stamkos. Pretty damn good core to build around. Our prospects aren't quite as good as they once were but still pretty good going forward. Tampa should still be able to contend with this core going forward. They will lose good players but once again its not like we screwed up giving bad players bad contracts.
 

KevFu

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It's odd to me that this is not more of a topic in this series. Vasy certainly benefits a lot from the play in front of him, but it really cannot be overstated just how much of a rock he is. To play with the amount of confidence this team has on D takes a goalie like Vasy who can be trusted to be left alone on a rush by the best forwards in the league and brush them aside.

High Danger Save Percentage: TB - 88.89%, NYI 77.97%

Median for the entire playoffs, all teams, all strengths is about 79%. So our goalies have been 2% points off of average (because your guys are talented finishers) and Vasy is 10% points over average.

In all seriousness, how would you divide that 10% between NYI below average finishing skill and Vasy just being great?

I think no one is mentioning it because no one respects the Islanders. Because everyone thinks we're a scrappy bunch of guys who stand in front of the net so we can pull 1-0 upsets, your goalie doesn't have to do much to have good numbers. Which is really disrespectful to both NYI and Vasy.
 

DFC

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Cirelli is absolutely the one RFA the Lightning wont let get away. Rightfully so.
Probably not true. Cirelli is great, but center is still our strongest position for the foreseeable future. If we're forced to trade an RFA, it could be him, especially if he's asking for 6+.

I mean, if Cernak is asking for 4+, the situation changes, but I don't see it happening that way.

Hopefully both guys are willing to leave some money (well, a lot of money) on the table. Cirelli's not the type of player you want to lose early.
 

DFC

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Don't know how much you've watched of SYR and ABB, but ABB is not an NHL Player. Johnson, despite how poor he's been lately, is still an NHL Player. ABB is shifty and smart, but he is not nearly fast enough to make it at the NHL level at his size. If he fixes his first 2-3 strides and finds another gear for his top end, he'd be fantastic. I just haven't seen him improve on those facets of his game.

I hope you're right though. If ABB could fill the spot, that'd be wonderful. I just don't see it being a reality unless something has drastically changed with his explosiveness and top gear skating-wise.
Haven't seen ABB since camp, but he looked like he has a long way to go. And I'm not sure how much delevopment is left there. He's still an interesting "what if" prospect, but he's yet to prove he's gonna play in the NHL someday, let alone as an impact player.

Scarily enough, my opinion of Foote is only slightly more optimistic. The skating, at least at camp, still looked a long way off to me.
 
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Joanna

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My 2 cents as a hockey fan first and Isle fan second. Point is the better player at this time. He is effective east-west and is able and willing to go into the dirty areas. I appreciate the TBL fans who have been classy and have taken nothing for granted. We know there are always d-bag fans from every team. Tampa has been impressive and able to respond and dictate the play for the most part.
I have been enjoying the national attention the Isles have been able to get and hope it doesn't end tomorrow night. It has been a great ride for us Isle fans as a small market: however, passionate fan base. It has been quite obvious the areas and strategy that Lou and BT must address if this team is going to climb to the next level.
You are so right about d-bag fans. I am always appalled at how mean-spirited and un sportsman like fans for any team can be. Most of us Lightning fans are knowledgeable and respectful of the game, as are most fans for the Islanders, etc. Too bad the D-bags have the biggest mouths to spout their idiocy.
 
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