2020 Draft

[thebus88]

Do they draft a good skilled player OR a loyal CBJ type player?

That is the question.

Fire Siren.

 

[Long Live Lyle]

Pronmon in the Athletic today mentioned that he thinks our biggest draft need is defense. He made an interesting argument that nearly all of our best U23 players/prospects are forwards: Dubois, Texier, Foudy, Bemstrom, Marchenko, Voronkov... Obviously Seth, Z and Gavrikov are relatively young and we do have Peeke's potential, but other than that, we probably could use some restocking on the back end.

I still think we're hurting for offensive firepower so I'd probably go forward at #21, but I wouldn't mind if we use 3 of our 4 later round picks on defensemen. Particularly because we might still "need" a top-line forward in 3-4 years, when we shouldn't need a top-pairing defenseman, so I'd rather draft for quality at forward and then quantity on defense and hope that one of those latter-round 3 defensemen becomes an NHL player on the second or third pairing in the future. (I also remember reading an article that value-wise, there is a bigger gap in quality between first round forwards vs mid-late round forwards than there is between first round defensemen vs mid-late round defensemen. Like, for example, a first round forward may have a 35% chance of playing 200 NHL games while a 5th round forward might have a 5% chance. Meanwhile, a first round defensemen might have a 25% chance at 200 games while a 5th round defensemen might have a 15% chance. I don't remember the exact numbers and just made those up as an example, but you get the point.)

Personally, I also like drafting about 2 goalies per 3 drafts on average and we didn't draft one last year, so we theoretically should, but given we have VV and Tarasov and we only had 3 picks last year and only 5 this year, I think we should maybe hold off one more year on a goalie.

All the above is based on the assumption we don't trade any of our picks/trade for any additional picks, of course.

 

[majormajor]

I like Connor Zary. He's a C with a Bo Horvat ceiling.

More likely he's a bottom six center. I know you'd love another Boone Jenner!

I'm just going off of the Draft Dynasty scouting video on Zary. His opinion is that Zary relies on being stronger than his junior opponents but is already filled out and might not be able to get much of a physical edge at the NHL level. But none of us, DD included, have access to physical testing results on the players.

 

[majormajor]

Going through some mocks wondering who we might “reach” for, who then could be seen as a good pick later on. I think most of us assume we’ll take a center rated around #20 (depending on who is there) but given the recent draft history of the CBJ, wondering if there is a guy in the 25-40 range we might really like, especially a non center which would surprise everyone. Or maybe we trade back a little to get another pick like last year, and get a guy Jarmo likes. Especially since I think we can let a kid develop for a couple of years, given the youth of the club already. And given the fiscal issues facing the NHL, we might not want to spend money with a more immediate signing.

Ridly Greig - left wing who can pass and score who is a pest with a high motor. He is pretty light - listed at 5’11 and 159 - but his dad and uncle played in the NHL so you have to assume he’ll fill out.

Yan Kuznetsov - underage college player (UConn) like Werenski and Hanafin were. Defensive defenseman with good size originally from Russia. Doubt that we’d go defense, but you always need a good young Dman in the pipeline.

Vasily Ponomaryov - another Russian who came over to North America, and another high motor left wing. One site says he passes the eye test, but box scores aren’t as good as you would expect.

Apparently Hendrix Lapierre has showed up to Q preseason much stronger and in better health than last year. I'd put him back on the radar for pick #21. Great playmaking center if he can stay healthy.

Ridly Greig (whose name befuddles me) is a safe bet for a third line pest that can score. He's already a heavy hitter and he'll fill out. That's great value if you can get him anywhere in the second round.

Ponomaryev and Yan Kuznetsov are not well liked by the online scouts I follow (Dobber guys, Scouching, Draft Dynasty), they either never mention them or explicitly have them outside the top 60 or so players.

That doesn't mean they won't be good players, draft evaluations are always a crapshoot. I'm very interested in getting Tristen Robins, who is a mid first rounder on some lists but not top 100 on others.

 

[koteka]

Ponomaryev and Yan Kuznetsov are not well liked by the online scouts I follow (Dobber guys, Scouching, Draft Dynasty), they either never mention them or explicitly have them outside the top 60 or so players.

I think Kuznetsov is really interesting. He is 18 and already has a year of college hockey under his belt. This is really rare. In the last 10 years the only people to do that are Werenski, Hanafin, and current Cleveland Monster Dillon Simpson. He is a defensive minded defenseman, so he is hard to judge without seeing him play. He has played against college players who are a few years older and more developed than he is. He has great size.

I think the Russians are early 2nd rounders. I am thinking a possible trade is with the Ducks - #27 and #36 for our #21.

Then maybe get a late 20s guy like Bourque or Greig plus Kuznetsov instead of whichever center will be there at 21.

 

[majormajor]

I think Kuznetsov is really interesting. He is 18 and already has a year of college hockey under his belt. This is really rare. In the last 10 years the only people to do that are Werenski, Hanafin, and current Cleveland Monster Dillon Simpson. He is a defensive minded defenseman, so he is hard to judge without seeing him play. He has played against college players who are a few years older and more developed than he is. He has great size.

I think the Russians are early 2nd rounders. I am thinking a possible trade is with the Ducks - #27 and #36 for our #21.

Then maybe get a late 20s guy like Bourque or Greig plus Kuznetsov instead of whichever center will be there at 21.

Yan Kuznetsov is doubly interesting because he's from Murmansk. How does he end up at UConn as a 17 year old?

As a player though he's so far in the Dillon Simpson mold. I wouldn't touch him in the first two rounds.

If you want a Russian in the early second, there is a good chance that Marat Khusnutdinov will be there. He's short and still plays in the MHL so he'll probably slip a bit past where his talent level suggests he should go. He is a nonstop little center, great at both ends, and a good playmaker. 2C upside, plays like Brayden Point, very ideal for the Jackets needs.

 

[Old Guy]

Pronmon in the Athletic today mentioned that he thinks our biggest draft need is defense. He made an interesting argument that nearly all of our best U23 players/prospects are forwards: Dubois, Texier, Foudy, Bemstrom, Marchenko, Voronkov...

I read Pronman’s article also. I thought he made an interesting point. So here is what I would do......
Given the CBJ’s dire need for more offense and Jarmo’s ability to sell us fans an annual trailer load of hope of offense with his 1st picks (PLD aside). I say he draft the best winger or center available at #21.
Then in subsequent rounds, Jarmo and scouts have shown the ability to mine gold nuggets better than average, so with a nod to Pronman, select a couple D-men in rounds 3-5.

 

[Xoggz22]

Pronmon in the Athletic today mentioned that he thinks our biggest draft need is defense. He made an interesting argument that nearly all of our best U23 players/prospects are forwards: Dubois, Texier, Foudy, Bemstrom, Marchenko, Voronkov... Obviously Seth, Z and Gavrikov are relatively young and we do have Peeke's potential, but other than that, we probably could use some restocking on the back end.

I still think we're hurting for offensive firepower so I'd probably go forward at #21, but I wouldn't mind if we use 3 of our 4 later round picks on defensemen. Particularly because we might still "need" a top-line forward in 3-4 years, when we shouldn't need a top-pairing defenseman, so I'd rather draft for quality at forward and then quantity on defense and hope that one of those latter-round 3 defensemen becomes an NHL player on the second or third pairing in the future. (I also remember reading an article that value-wise, there is a bigger gap in quality between first round forwards vs mid-late round forwards than there is between first round defensemen vs mid-late round defensemen. Like, for example, a first round forward may have a 35% chance of playing 200 NHL games while a 5th round forward might have a 5% chance. Meanwhile, a first round defensemen might have a 25% chance at 200 games while a 5th round defensemen might have a 15% chance. I don't remember the exact numbers and just made those up as an example, but you get the point.)

Personally, I also like drafting about 2 goalies per 3 drafts on average and we didn't draft one last year, so we theoretically should, but given we have VV and Tarasov and we only had 3 picks last year and only 5 this year, I think we should maybe hold off one more year on a goalie.

All the above is based on the assumption we don't trade any of our picks/trade for any additional picks, of course.

You take the best player possible. Period. We also need to keep in mind that any player drafted at #21 (or any other round for that matter) is unlikely to have a significant impact on this team for 2? 3? years. You don't draft on need now, you draft on need based on future construct. that said, at this point we need C now and likely in the future unless the CBJ really feels Texier, Voronkov and Dubois are the future down the middles. All are under 22. All things being equal, draft the position of need. I think C and D would both qualify (again, given we're not likely to see contributions for a few years).

 

[majormajor]

I read Pronman’s article also. I thought he made an interesting point. So here is what I would do......
Given the CBJ’s dire need for more offense and Jarmo’s ability to sell us fans an annual trailer load of hope of offense with his 1st picks (PLD aside). I say he draft the best winger or center available at #21.
Then in subsequent rounds, Jarmo and scouts have shown the ability to mine gold nuggets better than average, so with a nod to Pronman, select a couple D-men in rounds 3-5.

That almost makes sense to me. We don't have a shortage of forward scoring prospects but we need an elite scorer; we have a shortage of D prospects but we don't need an elite D-man. I think you have to go with what the draft gives you though, this is not a good draft for defensemen in general, I expect our D targets will be gone too early. And that's not worth fighting, load up on forwards if that is what the draft gives you.

 

[majormajor]

You take the best player possible. Period. We also need to keep in mind that any player drafted at #21 (or any other round for that matter) is unlikely to have a significant impact on this team for 2? 3? years. You don't draft on need now, you draft on need based on future construct. that said, at this point we need C now and likely in the future unless the CBJ really feels Texier, Voronkov and Dubois are the future down the middles. All are under 22. All things being equal, draft the position of need. I think C and D would both qualify (again, given we're not likely to see contributions for a few years).

For all we know, in 2023 Dubois-Texier-Voronkov will be one of the best center cores in the league and we'll have a shortage of right wingers.

 

[EspenK]

nm

 

[majormajor]

A couple guys I'm keying in on as we approach the draft are Mercer and Lapierre. They're playing together now in the pre-season for Chicoutimi and you can see them here absolutely tearing it up. Lapierre was somewhat written off last year with 3 concussions, which has since been re-diagnosed as a neck fracture that he was playing with since the first injury. It looks like he's recovered here!



Lapierre is a playmaking center with #1 upside, so I have to imagine the Jackets are interested. Mercer is another guy I think is sometimes underrated. I'd be thrilled to get either of them at #21.

 

[hardkorejackets]

Not that it means much... But, in Corey Pronman's 7 round mock draft on The Athletic- He had the Columbus Blue Jackets taking Lukas Reichel at #21.

Also, a little bit of a blast from the past. He had the Columbus Blue Jacket's selecting Adrian Aucoin's son-Kyle in Round 6.

 

[EspenK]

Not that it means much... But, in Corey Pronman's 7 round mock draft on The Athletic- He had the Columbus Blue Jackets taking Lukas Reichel at #21.

Also had Connor Zary going #20. I'd take either.

 

[majormajor]

Not that it means much... But, in Corey Pronman's 7 round mock draft on The Athletic- He had the Columbus Blue Jackets taking Lukas Reichel at #21.

Also, a little bit of a blast from the past. He had the Columbus Blue Jacket's selecting Adrian Aucoin's son-Kyle in Round 6.

I wasn't treating the poll the other day as a mock draft, but it just so happens that Lukas Reichel is very much the archetype of a Jarmo/Siren pick.

I would say their most salient tendency is their confidence that they can see a kid's future even if he has a long way to go. Dubois, Texier, Foudy, etc... So they are often comfortable passing on players that are closer to NHL ready in favor of guys that need a lot of work. In Reichel's case he doesn't have much muscle on his frame, and he's coming from a league that hasn't produced much NHL talent. There are a lot of high-profile Germans this year so it's not like he'll be underscouted like Texier was, but it still takes confidence to take a guy when you don't have many NHLers who came from his league.

 

[rotsbu]

I wasn't treating the poll the other day as a mock draft, but it just so happens that Lukas Reichel is very much the archetype of a Jarmo/Siren pick.

I would say their most salient tendency is their confidence that they can see a kid's future even if he has a long way to go. Dubois, Texier, Foudy, etc... So they are often comfortable passing on players that are closer to NHL ready in favor of guys that need a lot of work. In Reichel's case he doesn't have much muscle on his frame, and he's coming from a league that hasn't produced much NHL talent. There are a lot of high-profile Germans this year so it's not like he'll be underscouted like Texier was, but it still takes confidence to take a guy when you don't have many NHLers who came from his league.

I have nothing useful to add except I find it interesting many (?all) mock drafts having 3 Germans and only 1 American going in Round 1. Has that ever happened before...I'd strongly wager against it

 

[majormajor]

I have nothing useful to add except I find it interesting many (?all) mock drafts having 3 Germans and only 1 American going in Round 1. Has that ever happened before...I'd strongly wager against it

No, there's never even been three Germans, maybe never two in the first? I bet one of Brisson or Bordeleau will go late 1st.

 

[hardkorejackets]

I have nothing useful to add except I find it interesting many (?all) mock drafts having 3 Germans and only 1 American going in Round 1. Has that ever happened before...I'd strongly wager against it

3 Germans in Round 1 is outstanding. I love seeing under-represented countries producing NHL talent. I haven't followed the draft closely... But, the lack of Americans in the 1st round of this draft is quite odd to say the least. Apparently, USA wanted to load up on high end NHL Draft talent in 2019 and called 2020 an off year.

MajorMajor- Is there any good USA talent in the 2021 NHL Draft?

 

[majormajor]

3 Germans in Round 1 is outstanding. I love seeing under-represented countries producing NHL talent. I haven't followed the draft closely... But, the lack of Americans in the 1st round of this draft is quite odd to say the least. Apparently, USA wanted to load up on high end NHL Draft talent in 2019 and called 2020 an off year.

MajorMajor- Is there any good USA talent in the 2021 NHL Draft?

Yes, there are a couple top ten caliber guys, including one Hughes brother, not much after that. It does seem a bit low.

 

[koteka]

MajorMajor- Is there any good USA talent in the 2021 NHL Draft?

I don’t think we will have another draft like 2019, but it will be better than this year. There is the third Hughes brother. Some good guys will be playing in the Big Ten if they have a season. Beniers, who was supposed to go to Harvard but switched to Michigan when the Ivy League started canceling sports. Lucius is going to Minnesota.

 

[majormajor]

Here's my top 31 this year. There are definitely some funny looking picks. I just tried to pretend I hadn't seen how the pros rank them and go with my gut. Actually my gut is telling me to put Seth Jarvis #1. I watched some of his second-half games and it was the best performance I'd seen this year, I just can't rank him higher because of his shorter track record. Tristan Robins is another WHL guy that looks outstanding in the second half but doesn't have a long track record. I have him at #19. I can't figure out why he is often ranked in the third and fourth rounds.

You'll notice that there are bizarrely few D-men here. I'm sure teams will take more D than this, and higher than this, but I don't think it's going to be good value this year. If you need a D-man, this is not the store for you. Finally I'll say that this draft is loaded with offensive talent. The very top is nice but I'm not blown away by Lafreniere and Byfield, what really stands out is that it runs very deep with potential star forwards. I don't consider myself much of a Stutzle, Raymond, or Perfetti skeptic, I just can't get them higher.

1	Lafreniere	LW
2	Byfield	C
3	Jarvis	RW
4	Rossi	C
5	Sanderson	LD
6	Stutzle	C/LW
7	Raymond	RW
8	Drysdale	RD
9	Lapierre	C
10	Perfetti	C/RW
11	Mercer	C/RW
12	Lundell	C
13	Askarov	G
14	Reichel	C/LW
15	Quinn	RW
16	Amirov	LW
17	Holtz	RW
18	Perreault	RW
19	Robins	C
20	Mysak	C/LW
21	Gunler	RW
22	Holloway	C/LW
23	Greig	C/LW
24	Wiesblatt	C/RW
25	Guhle	LD
26	Zary	C
27	Bourque	C/RW
28	Schneider	RD
29	Foudy	C
30	Peterka	RW
31	Heineman	LW

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[rotsbu]

Here's my top 31 this year. There are definitely some funny looking picks. I just tried to pretend I hadn't seen how the pros rank them and go with my gut. Actually my gut is telling me to put Seth Jarvis #1. I watched some of his second-half games and it was the best performance I'd seen this year, I just can't rank him higher because of his shorter track record. Tristan Robins is another WHL guy that looks outstanding in the second half but doesn't have a long track record. I have him at #19. I can't figure out why he is often ranked in the third and fourth rounds.

You'll notice that there are bizarrely few D-men here. I'm sure teams will take more D than this, and higher than this, but I don't think it's going to be good value this year. If you need a D-man, this is not the store for you. Finally I'll say that this draft is loaded with offensive talent. The very top is nice but I'm not blown away by Lafreniere and Byfield, what really stands out is that it runs very deep with potential star forwards. I don't consider myself much of a Stutzle, Raymond, or Perfetti skeptic, I just can't get them higher.

1	Lafreniere	LW
2	Byfield	C
3	Jarvis	RW
4	Rossi	C
5	Sanderson	LD
6	Stutzle	C/LW
7	Raymond	RW
8	Drysdale	RD
9	Lapierre	C
10	Perfetti	C/RW
11	Mercer	C/RW
12	Lundell	C
13	Askarov	G
14	Reichel	C/LW
15	Quinn	RW
16	Amirov	LW
17	Holtz	RW
18	Perreault	RW
19	Robins	C
20	Mysak	C/LW
21	Gunler	RW
22	Holloway	C/LW
23	Greig	C/LW
24	Wiesblatt	C/RW
25	Guhle	LD
26	Zary	C
27	Bourque	C/RW
28	Schneider	RD
29	Foudy	C
30	Peterka	RW
31	Heineman	LW

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Sounds like that'll be Jarmo's choice at #21 then

 

[Cowumbus]

Mysak is very similar to Foudy but maybe slightly more skilled.

 

[Cowumbus]

Here's my top 31 this year. There are definitely some funny looking picks. I just tried to pretend I hadn't seen how the pros rank them and go with my gut. Actually my gut is telling me to put Seth Jarvis #1. I watched some of his second-half games and it was the best performance I'd seen this year, I just can't rank him higher because of his shorter track record. Tristan Robins is another WHL guy that looks outstanding in the second half but doesn't have a long track record. I have him at #19. I can't figure out why he is often ranked in the third and fourth rounds.

You'll notice that there are bizarrely few D-men here. I'm sure teams will take more D than this, and higher than this, but I don't think it's going to be good value this year. If you need a D-man, this is not the store for you. Finally I'll say that this draft is loaded with offensive talent. The very top is nice but I'm not blown away by Lafreniere and Byfield, what really stands out is that it runs very deep with potential star forwards. I don't consider myself much of a Stutzle, Raymond, or Perfetti skeptic, I just can't get them higher.

1	Lafreniere	LW
2	Byfield	C
3	Jarvis	RW
4	Rossi	C
5	Sanderson	LD
6	Stutzle	C/LW
7	Raymond	RW
8	Drysdale	RD
9	Lapierre	C
10	Perfetti	C/RW
11	Mercer	C/RW
12	Lundell	C
13	Askarov	G
14	Reichel	C/LW
15	Quinn	RW
16	Amirov	LW
17	Holtz	RW
18	Perreault	RW
19	Robins	C
20	Mysak	C/LW
21	Gunler	RW
22	Holloway	C/LW
23	Greig	C/LW
24	Wiesblatt	C/RW
25	Guhle	LD
26	Zary	C
27	Bourque	C/RW
28	Schneider	RD
29	Foudy	C
30	Peterka	RW
31	Heineman	LW

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The Robins kid looks very good. I like the skill and speed combination.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

Here's my top 31 this year. There are definitely some funny looking picks. I just tried to pretend I hadn't seen how the pros rank them and go with my gut. Actually my gut is telling me to put Seth Jarvis #1. I watched some of his second-half games and it was the best performance I'd seen this year, I just can't rank him higher because of his shorter track record. Tristan Robins is another WHL guy that looks outstanding in the second half but doesn't have a long track record. I have him at #19. I can't figure out why he is often ranked in the third and fourth rounds.

You'll notice that there are bizarrely few D-men here. I'm sure teams will take more D than this, and higher than this, but I don't think it's going to be good value this year. If you need a D-man, this is not the store for you. Finally I'll say that this draft is loaded with offensive talent. The very top is nice but I'm not blown away by Lafreniere and Byfield, what really stands out is that it runs very deep with potential star forwards. I don't consider myself much of a Stutzle, Raymond, or Perfetti skeptic, I just can't get them higher.

1	Lafreniere	LW
2	Byfield	C
3	Jarvis	RW
4	Rossi	C
5	Sanderson	LD
6	Stutzle	C/LW
7	Raymond	RW
8	Drysdale	RD
9	Lapierre	C
10	Perfetti	C/RW
11	Mercer	C/RW
12	Lundell	C
13	Askarov	G
14	Reichel	C/LW
15	Quinn	RW
16	Amirov	LW
17	Holtz	RW
18	Perreault	RW
19	Robins	C
20	Mysak	C/LW
21	Gunler	RW
22	Holloway	C/LW
23	Greig	C/LW
24	Wiesblatt	C/RW
25	Guhle	LD
26	Zary	C
27	Bourque	C/RW
28	Schneider	RD
29	Foudy	C
30	Peterka	RW
31	Heineman	LW

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I have no issue with making an argument that Jarvis could be 3rd. He started scoring at an alarming rate the second half of the season and trajectory is such a big part of it. I appreciate this list not following the consensus.

My big reach of this draft that I’ve tried to talk myself out of that I can’t shake... I see Rossi being the best player in this draft.