Prospect Info: 2020 Devils-Centric Final Mock Draft, Rounds 1 & 2

[glenwo2]

I'm going to need to refer you to a good shrink my friend, because you're just projecting your own fears. There is no player who fits both the draft needs and draft tendencies of the teams drafting between #4 and #6 overall better than Jake Sanderson.

Is there a chance Sanderson falls to #7? Of course. There is always a chance. And I do believe that the Devils take him there if he does, unless Drysdale is also bizarrely still available. But just because a draft writer does not see how a team like Anaheim could possibly pass on a kid they love personally as much as a Raymond or a Rossi, the Anaheim scouting room is filled with a bunch of 45 to 65 year old dudes who factor in size and toughness and two-way play to the same degree that a draft writer might factor in skating and passing vision.

Again, is it impossible that the Ducks take an undersized F at #7? No it's not. But this is a team whose draft board probably has guys like Sanderson, Holtz and Quinn ranked with higher grades. There is just so much variance between teams' draft boards. We're just talking about the top 10, but I could see Anaheim ranking big power forward Dylan Holloway in their top 10 range, and I could also see Anaheim ranking players like Khusnutdinov and Andrae as 6th round picks. They just don't take small centers or small defensemen, ever. Ottawa is very similar in this respect. What do these two teams love more than anything? Players like Jake Sanderson.

As far as the #18 overall pick goes, I can project all I want who the best player will be, because that's what we draft writers do. But if you want to know who is the most talented? I'd have to say that will be Jacob Perreault by a long shot. I can't say this enough -- in terms of 2020 highly-ranked wingers Perreault has higher upside than Holtz or Quinn, and maybe even more than Raymond and Perfetti. Let's say I was forced to rank their tools individually, including Perreault in the "consensus top 4 wings not named Lafreniere".

Skating
1 Raymond
2 Perreault
3 Perfetti
4 Holtz
5 Quinn

Shot
1 Holtz
2 Quinn
3 Perreault
4 Perfetti
5 Raymond

Hands
1 Perfetti
2 Raymond
3 Perreault
4 Holtz
5 Quinn

Passing/Vision
1 Raymond
2 Perfetti
3 Perreault
4 Quinn
5 Holtz

As you can see, the reason Lucas Raymond is my highest ranked of these players is because he has the best overall skill set. But, when I do s**t like this in my notebook at home, I can't help but notice that there's only one player in the top 3 list for all of my "Big 4" offensive categories -- and that's Perreault. His skill set has no weakness whatsoever. Where the cynicism comes in is when I factor in my intangibles:

Two-Way Play
1 Quinn
2 Holtz
3 Perfetti
4 Raymond
5 Perreault

Hockey IQ
1 Perfetti
2 Raymond
3 Perreault
4 Quinn
5 Holtz

Compete Level
1 Perfetti
2 Quinn
3 Holtz
4 Raymond
5 Perreault

It's also important to note that Perreault is a far, far #5 in the two categories he finished #5 in. But we also need to factor in that Perreault is the youngest of these 5 players, and my "intangibles" categories do not affect your talent ceiling, only your talent floor. What intangibles really do is maximize the potential of a player's physical tool set. Again, this is where Perreault needs work.

I would say in terms of sheer upside, Perreault is almost certainly the most talented player likely to be available at #18 overall. The runners-up in my opinion would be Amirov and Lapierre and Gunler, and Khusnutdinov and Mysak would be in the conversation. But will he be the best player? I can't say I would draft any of these players over a guy like Dawson Mercer, who is not only a terrific hockey player but also does everything right every time he steps on the ice and hustles his ass off every shift.

Then give me Perreault at 18 (inject that into my veins).

(I'm going to need it, I think. lol )

 

[Nico Hischier]

I’m expecting us to draft Holtz based on Fitz’s comments

 

[Guadana]

Well tbf you don’t seem to think any of the top forwards are a “good fit” for the Devils...

If we talk about top-10/12 I like Stutzle/Raymond/Quinn/Lundell game in that order.
And yes I really like Reichel and Amirov game, especially if we look at level of competition and defense they play against. And Marat.

 

[TBF1972]

In the last three drafts, players listed under 6'0 drafted with Ottawa's 18 overall picks:

LW Angus Crookshank, at 126th overall in 2018. He was listed as a minuscule 5'11-175 when he was drafted.

surprised about the low number of picks ottawa had the last three years.

 

[TBF1972]

First, I do not believe that Ottawa will draft Askarov at #5 overall. Though nothing is impossible, I make my own personal judgements based on precedent, and the Ottawa front office is chock-full of old school Canadian NHL lifers who have not drafted a Russian since Russian Bashkarov way back in 2007. They have not drafted a goaltender in the top 100 picks since Marcus Hogberg at #78 overall in 2013. I just can't see the Senators passing up on a player with "Ottawa draft pick" written all over them like Jake Sanderson or Alex Holtz/Jack Quinn to take a Russian goaltender, it doesn't matter to me how good Askarov is.

I love it to correct people, who know better than me:

2019 Entry

37

2

Mads Sogaard

G

Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[TBF1972]

Going to be really curious where he goes. He has to be on a number of do not draft boards

he is on mine. i have my doubts, he makes it to nhl in one piece and if actually arrives and plays well, do you want to risk a multi-year multi-million $ contract on him? most likely he will be a heart breaker.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Of course haha. Thought he was a steal at 84.
What's your opinion on the other picks in the draft- mainly the 4th rounders and up.

Can you link me to the page? It would be interesting to know who was available when you took those guys. Or is it like an entire thread? I have no idea how these things work.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I love it to correct people, who know better than me:

2019 Entry

37

2

Mads Sogaard

G

Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Mads Sogaard is from Denmark. (*Gotcha!*)

 

[RememberTheName]

Can you link me to the page? It would be interesting to know who was available when you took those guys. Or is it like an entire thread? I have no idea how these things work.

Sure thing! This is the page that the mock draft was conducted on
NHL Entry Draft: - TP's Full 7 Round Mock Draft
I think if I was to change anything up, I might have picked Zlodeyev, Laferriere, or Rochette over Bantle, but sometimes I just forget about some players.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

guys 2 more days

we almost made it!

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sure thing! This is the page that the mock draft was conducted on
NHL Entry Draft: - TP's Full 7 Round Mock Draft
I think if I was to change anything up, I might have picked Zlodeyev, Laferriere, or Rochette over Bantle, but sometimes I just forget about some players.

I just gave it a glance. I'll take a deep dive later but I need to go help my friend out at his Czech beer hall. I will say that there needs to be a discussion about Perreault vs. Gunler, since they are both huge talents at RW with perceived off-ice issues and heavy criticisms regarding consistency of play. You went with Gunler at #20 and left Perreault on the board, but I feel the need to say that, in my opinion, that would be a mistake.

The obvious similarities between Perreault and Gunler are that these are both potential big-time goal-scorers at RW, both of whom will be drafted later than their talent dictates due to perceived attitude issues. Both players both rely heavily on a tremendous shot, but Perreault's is clearly superior. Perreault is also a far better skater than Gunler, who skates well but lacks Perreault's high-end straightaway speed. I think Gunler's passing and vision are better than advertised, but again it's not close here -- Perreault has elite vision, and Gunler's is not close.

Neither of these kids is ever winning a Selke, and neither are being drafted for their consistency or physicality or consistency of effort -- you hope all of these factors improve in both players with age and maturity. But in the reasons why you would draft them? Well, I don't think there is a singular aspect of the game where I could say Gunler is superior to Perreault. With recent revelations that Gunler might be clashing (again) with his coaching staff at Lulea, I'd say he now comes with even a bit more nail-biting.

Would I still draft Gunler in the first round? Yes -- if he really nailed it in the interview process. But I would not draft him if Jacob Perreault was still on the board. Perreault has a similar skill set and similar caveats, but his skill set ranks superior to Gunler, pretty much across the board. I felt this was an important distinction to make, since there is a very good chance both will be available to the Devils at #18 and #20, and the Devils have great need for a first-line caliber, goal-scoring RW.

 

[Nicomo Cosca]

I’m expecting us to draft Holtz based on Fitz’s comments

I’m going to have to quickly get over my initial disappointment if we do, and convince myself he has a 40 goal scorer type ceiling...

 

[Nubmer6]

Sure thing! This is the page that the mock draft was conducted on
NHL Entry Draft: - TP's Full 7 Round Mock Draft
I think if I was to change anything up, I might have picked Zlodeyev, Laferriere, or Rochette over Bantle, but sometimes I just forget about some players.

Oh god... That draft has the Rags drafting BOTH Alex LaFrnieres. How do you deal with the jersey names in training camp???

 

[StevenToddIves]

I’m going to have to quickly get over my initial disappointment if we do, and convince myself he has a 40 goal scorer type ceiling...

I'm going to say that it's difficult to put too much stock in GMs' stated intentions about draft picks leading up to the draft. You rarely hear them criticize any player and they're always effusive in their praise. Teams are extremely careful about concealing their true targets on draft day.

Bob McKenzie has one of most accurate rankings around, because instead of one person's opinion, he uses the consensus ranking of 10 NHL scouts. However, when asked if any of the scouts could down-rank players they wanted for their own teams, McKenzie admitted that this had likely occurred on multiple occasions. So, the scout who ranked Rossi 19th overall this year might just want Rossi for his own NHL team. Who knows?

The biggest surprise of the 2019 draft's top 10 was Moritz Seider to Detroit at #6 overall. I tried to find GM Steve Yzerman quotes about Seider in the weeks leading up to the draft, and I could not find a single word. Yzerman clearly had targeted Seider as better than the consensus ranking, and clearly did not want to advertise his affection for said player.

 

[Guadana]

I wait a draft night like a child wait for christmas night.
Anyway Devils will add great special prospect, that we don`t have any analog in prospect pool.
(letitbesandersonletitbesanderson)

 

[RememberTheName]

I just gave it a glance. I'll take a deep dive later but I need to go help my friend out at his Czech beer hall. I will say that there needs to be a discussion about Perreault vs. Gunler, since they are both huge talents at RW with perceived off-ice issues and heavy criticisms regarding consistency of play. You went with Gunler at #20 and left Perreault on the board, but I feel the need to say that, in my opinion, that would be a mistake.

The obvious similarities between Perreault and Gunler are that these are both potential big-time goal-scorers at RW, both of whom will be drafted later than their talent dictates due to perceived attitude issues. Both players both rely heavily on a tremendous shot, but Perreault's is clearly superior. Perreault is also a far better skater than Gunler, who skates well but lacks Perreault's high-end straightaway speed. I think Gunler's passing and vision are better than advertised, but again it's not close here -- Perreault has elite vision, and Gunler's is not close.

Neither of these kids is ever winning a Selke, and neither are being drafted for their consistency or physicality or consistency of effort -- you hope all of these factors improve in both players with age and maturity. But in the reasons why you would draft them? Well, I don't think there is a singular aspect of the game where I could say Gunler is superior to Perreault. With recent revelations that Gunler might be clashing (again) with his coaching staff at Lulea, I'd say he now comes with even a bit more nail-biting.

Would I still draft Gunler in the first round? Yes -- if he really nailed it in the interview process. But I would not draft him if Jacob Perreault was still on the board. Perreault has a similar skill set and similar caveats, but his skill set ranks superior to Gunler, pretty much across the board. I felt this was an important distinction to make, since there is a very good chance both will be available to the Devils at #18 and #20, and the Devils have great need for a first-line caliber, goal-scoring RW.

I made that Gunler pick about 2 weeks ago. I’ve soured a little on him given another slow, inconsistent start to the season. Right now, making the pick again today, I probably would take Perreault

 

[GeNeXt]

Perfetti's skating reminds me of Goose so much. Maybe a better career trajectory since he's acclimated to NA his whole life, but I think we can all agree that skating is what holds Goose back from being a superstar.

 

[Darkauron]

guys 2 more days

we almost made it!

I feel like I have aged a decade since anything really interesting with the devils has happened...

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

Hopefully pick 7 is an easy one depending on who gets taken in the top 6 picks. Our scouts really need to.hit a homerun with 18 and 20. If we get a top line player at 7 regardless of position I would be content if picks 18 and 20 turn out to be 2nd line forwards or legit top 4. Its really hard to draft top line players so we have to lower pir expectations for pick 18 and 20. As we all know though star players can be found in every round with a little bit of luck. Cant wait for Tuesday and Wednesday night !

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

if a kid has questions about his skating at 18 years old, that is always a red flag to me

how long did we wait for Larsson to improve his skating?

The funny thing about this is Larsson was said to be a great skater, oof.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I will say that there needs to be a discussion about Perreault vs. Gunler, since they are both huge talents at RW with perceived off-ice issues and heavy criticisms regarding consistency of play. You went with Gunler at #20 and left Perreault on the board, but I feel the need to say that, in my opinion, that would be a mistake.

Agreed. If it was between Perreault and Gunler, I go with Perreault easily.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

I can't say it enough -- Hendrix Lapierre is the second best playmaker in the draft. Better than Stutzle and Raymond and Perfetti and Rossi. For this reason alone he's an intriguing pick, but he also has terrific skates and hands. Lapierre is quite simply, a great talent.

But it's crucial to know the risks. His concussions and neck/back issues are very scary, especially when you take into account the way they negatively affected his play even when he returned late last season. I do agree he looks great right now, and I have been a huge fan of Lapierre from the outset. But I had to move down from where I wanted to rank him -- in the #10 to #12 range -- because there's just too much uncertainty health wise.

If he’s still there at #20, you have to take him. With our 3rd pick of the first round, we can be walking away with a homerun selection in Hendrix Lapierre.

True, we can also take a chance on Perreault, Gunler or Mysak but all 3 players are nowhere near Hendrix in terms of overall talent.

If I’m taking a chance on a kid, I’m picking the one that has the highest ceiling/upside.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Again, if Rossi, Quinn, and one of the defenders are there, I trade down with Minnesota. They're desperate for a C and would easily pick Rossi, leaving us guaranteed with Quinn or one of the defenders.

If that’s the case, you pick Drysdale or Sanderson and that’s that. There’s no point in trading down to get a mid 2nd round pick and not get your guy.

The odds of that 2nd round pick doing anything relevant is pretty slim and that’s why I’m against moving down from pick #7. If you want to trade down, do it with #18 and #20.

 

[Forge]

If he’s still there at #20, you have to take him. With our 3rd pick of the first round, we can be walking away with a homerun selection in Hendrix Lapierre.

True, we can also take a chance on Perreault, Gunler or Mysak but all 3 players are nowhere near Hendrix in terms of overall talent.

If I’m taking a chance on a kid, I’m picking the one that has the highest ceiling/upside.

I have this weird feeling that he goes the Rangers.

 

[Nubmer6]

I feel like I have aged a decade since anything really interesting with the devils has happened...

The problem is, what do we do after the draft is over?

I mean, sure, we argue over who we picked for a few days, maybe gloat about someone who fell that we managed to snag, do the yearly prospect rankings. Then the waiting begins all over again, but this time we don't know for how long.

It reminds me of a show I saw on Navy SEAL training. They had to go out on a run, and the slowest bunch would be punished, but they weren't told how long the run would be.