2020-21 Norris Trophy candidates: Adam Fox, Victor Hedman, Cale Makar

[Grifter3511]

Personally I wouldn’t give the Hart, or Norris to someone who missed the playoffs unless they just blew the field away.

But, maybe some people feel the same way about Makar missing games, so I guess there are issues on both sides there.

Hedman will get a lot of votes from the old-school voters, and probably no 1st place votes from the advanced stats crowd.

It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

This makes somewhat sense in regards to the Hart as it is technically, 'most valuable to your team' and if your team misses the playoffs, then regardless of how amazing a season one had it could be argued it was irrelevant.

But Norris is strictly a 'best player at their position' trophy and is not connected to the success of the team in any way. The very best defensemen logging the most time of all players in the league still dont even play 50% of the game so to punish a single player for lack of team success doesnt make a lot of sense. One could absolutely dominate in the 45% of the time theyre on (as Fox and Makar seemed to do) but if the rest of the team is balls and completely undoes their great work in the other 55% of the game, how is that their fault?

 

[wetcoast]

This post implies that there's still voting to be done and that they're choosing between the 3 finalists. The Norris winner has already been decided.

Thanks for pointing that out and yes I know votes are already in, I guess I could have been more clear.


I was just stating that I have no idea on how the voters as a group are going to treat all factors and weigh them although it’s a good thing that voters results are finally public after years of secrecy.

 

[wetcoast]

This makes somewhat sense in regards to the Hart as it is technically, 'most valuable to your team' and if your team misses the playoffs, then regardless of how amazing a season one had it could be argued it was irrelevant.

But Norris is strictly a 'best player at their position' trophy and is not connected to the success of the team in any way. The very best defensemen logging the most time of all players in the league still dont even play 50% of the game so to punish a single player for lack of team success doesnt make a lot of sense. One could absolutely dominate in the 45% of the time theyre on (as Fox and Makar seemed to do) but if the rest of the team is balls and completely undoes their great work in the other 55% of the game, how is that their fault?

The thing is that a lot of voters vote on a narrative and might look at the NYR and say they got bread and if Fox was the best Dman in the league why aren’t they in the playoffs.

I don’t agree with this but I’m pretty sure things like that are in many peoples minds when looking at things like this.

 

[Tawnos]

Thanks for pointing that out and yes I know votes are already in, I guess I could have been more clear.


I was just stating that I have no idea on how the voters as a group are going to treat all factors and weigh them although it’s a good thing that voters results are finally public after years of secrecy.

Might help to start using the right tense. i.e. "I was just stating that I have no idea how the votes as a group have treated all factors and weighed them"

I'm not purposely harping on you here. It's just something I've been seeing a lot and has become a pet peeve.

 

[wetcoast]

Might help to start using the right tense. i.e. "I was just stating that I have no idea how the votes as a group have treated all factors and weighed them"

I'm not purposely harping on you here. It's just something I've been seeing a lot and has become a pet peeve.

Fair point but I’m a lazy poster and even worse typist.

That and the worst auto correct that I have even seen on any device.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

All of them, he got abused against a hard fore check! OVERRATED!!!

I was going to bring up the expected goals in those games, but you’ve proven you are completely unserious, and no one should take time trying to seriously argue with you about this.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Fox really feasted stats wise on the 3 really weak teams, Makar and Hedman had more balanced scoring.

Not that I think voters look at that sort of stuff much really.

I think, wrongly, that the fact that 2 guys made the playoffs and one didn’t will factor in more.

I know there’s an unserious person who keeps repeating it, but it’s not actually true. Look how Makar did against Vegas. Fox’s stats are pretty similar against six of the seven teams in that division.

 

[wetcoast]

I know there’s an unserious person who keeps repeating it, but it’s not actually true. Look how Makar did against Vegas. Fox’s stats are pretty similar against six of the seven teams in that division.

Not for this season, his splits are really top heavy against the Sabres, Devils and Flyers.

The fact of the matter is that all 3 finalists played entirely different schedules this year.

The other 2 finalists have more “balanced” splits but then again I really wonder how much weight the voters even put into this.

Hedman ironically was a -8 against the Blue Jackets and -1 against the Red Wings and a plus against the other teams.

But again I seriously doubt voters will give this much if any thought.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

For those who like to complain about the Norris being a reputation award, it sure seems to help if you make flashy highlight reel plays that get shared all over social media. It's not like Fox and Makar have been quietly chugging away for years before getting consideration.

Meanwhile a guy like Shea Theodore barely seems to exist.

I think Hamilton, or Theadore would’ve been worthy nominees over Hedman. Just not Makar, or Fox.

 

[Rangers79]

Why even have regular season awards for individuals if most people seem to want it based on making the playoffs? Make em only include playoff team players or make em based on the playoffs and regular season. That way the only way to tell if an individual player is good is if his team as a whole made the playoffs. Or he'll make awards based only on players who make the playoffs. Seems to be what most people want.

 

[The S5]

I think Hamilton, or Theadore would’ve been worthy nominees over Hedman. Just not Makar, or Fox.

As both a Rangers and Canes fan, you are drastically over rating Dougie.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Not for this season, his splits are really top heavy against the Sabres, Devils and Flyers.

The fact of the matter is that all 3 finalists played entirely different schedules this year.

The other 2 finalists have more “balanced” splits but then again I really wonder how much weight the voters even put into this.

Hedman ironically was a -8 against the Blue Jackets and -1 against the Red Wings and a plus against the other teams.

But again I seriously doubt voters will give this much if any thought.

Not exactly. As I mentioned, the unserious person that I quoted above suggested that Fox played poorly specifically against Washington, Boston, and NYI. In those 24 games, Fox had an xG% above 50% half of those games. Fox is usually above 50% xG% for more than half of the games he plays, but you have to account for team factors that go into that stat. His team didn't have a .500 record in those games. Being 50% when the rest of your team is significantly below 50% suggests that Fox played well in those games. Obviously he cannot be expected to carry an inferior team by himself past better teams.

And points, which I suspect you are mentioning, are influenced by the team around you. A player, especially a defenseman, can play really well, and still not score any points. If the players around you don't finish their chances or can't even create chances, you can still have an influential game, and get shut out. I'm not going to go total up the xG differential between all the teams he played against. That would take a very long time, but this idea that Fox struggled against the top teams in the division isn't accurate. There were a lot more complaints going the way of players like Zibanejad and Panarin in those games. Fox was the least of the Rangers problems.

 

[wetcoast]

Not exactly. As I mentioned, the unserious person that I quoted above suggested that Fox played poorly specifically against Washington, Boston, and NYI. In those 24 games, Fox had an xG% above 50% half of those games. Fox is usually above 50% xG% for more than half of the games he plays, but you have to account for team factors that go into that stat. His team didn't have a .500 record in those games. Being 50% when the rest of your team is significantly below 50% suggests that Fox played well in those games. Obviously he cannot be expected to carry an inferior team by himself past better teams.

And points, which I suspect you are mentioning, are influenced by the team around you. A player, especially a defenseman, can play really well, and still not score any points. If the players around you don't finish their chances or can't even create chances, you can still have an influential game, and get shut out. I'm not going to go total up the xG differential between all the teams he played against. That would take a very long time, but this idea that Fox struggled against the top teams in the division isn't accurate. There were a lot more complaints going the way of players like Zibanejad and Panarin in those games. Fox was the least of the Rangers problems.

Seriously though how many voters actually watched every game that these 3 played and more specifically focused on these 3 guys.

Advanced stats are gaining traction but the usual counting stats and narrative most likely still drive most voting decisions.

 

[OskarOskarius]

Why even have regular season awards for individuals if most people seem to want it based on making the playoffs? Make em only include playoff team players or make em based on the playoffs and regular season. That way the only way to tell if an individual player is good is if his team as a whole made the playoffs. Or he'll make awards based only on players who make the playoffs. Seems to be what most people want.

Because the play offs is when you see players at 100 %. Makar wasn’t enough against Vegas. Hedman will be enough. Giving the Norris to a defenseman who don’t even play shorthanded is a joke.

 

[majormajor]

Save percentage at even strength while player is on the ice


Makar: .887%
Hedman: .894%
Fox: .919%

Two of those three play with a vezina trophy finalist.

Sometimes D-men can have a discernable effect on save percentage, but usually it is just noise. That's why so many would say Fox was just luckier. Do we know if these numbers are going to stay consistent this way?

 

[majormajor]

Horrible understanding of stats. For one, how much time did Cale Makar spend shorthanded? How much in powerplay? Just counting per 60 is ridiculous.

Lol you didn't even look. This is 5v5 only.

 

[majormajor]

Hedman will get a lot of votes from the old-school voters, and probably no 1st place votes from the advanced stats crowd.

It will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

It's not just an advanced stats vs normies thing. Your typical Tampa fan will tell you that Hedman was legit awful in the second half. He failed the actual eye test miserably. This is more about people who watch the players or pay attention vs the lazy slobs who just vote on reputation + points.

A lot of people say "eye test" but actually mean points.

Seriously though how many voters actually watched every game that these 3 played and more specifically focused on these 3 guys.

Advanced stats are gaining traction but the usual counting stats and narrative most likely still drive most voting decisions.

If they had even watched one Tampa game in the second half they would know that something was amiss with Hedman. This year especially a lot of folks have only watched games from one or two divisions. Many of the voters watched zero games of Hedman before the playoffs.

 

[Rschmitz]

Hedman is head and shoulders (literally and figuratively) above the rest when healthy, but there's tons of speculation that he isn't. He shouldn't receive that many votes from the professionals - whose job is to follow the league - when even a casual fan can notice he's having an off season. Now, if he ends up winning it...

It's not speculation, team has already said he has an injury that needs surgery after this season.

 

[Rschmitz]

Hedman wasn’t even close to Fox or Makar this season. Should have been McAvoy or at least 10 other defensemen before Hedman

Really? Hedman had more points than Makar and 2 less points than Fox. He's also one of the best shutdown defenders in hockey, so I don't know where you conclude that he "wasn't even close". Throw in his track record and that he was clearly the best defender in hockey until he was injured and that's why he's a nominee.

 

[mac nylander]

bogosian snubbed

 

[rangersfansince08]

I was going to bring up the expected goals in those games, but you’ve proven you are completely unserious, and no one should take time trying to seriously argue with you about this.

post them anyways for the rest of us please.

 

[rangersfansince08]

Yea Fox didn't produce against the Islanders as much as we would have liked but who did? But even his rookie year he had 1 G, 3 A and was +4 in 4 games against them (while the Rangers went 3-1). So this idea that he is overrated is complete nonsense.

 

[Lays]

Really? Hedman had more points than Makar and 2 less points than Fox. He's also one of the best shutdown defenders in hockey, so I don't know where you conclude that he "wasn't even close". Throw in his track record and that he was clearly the best defender in hockey until he was injured and that's why he's a nominee.

Fox played the toughest minutes out of any defender this past season against top competition, and excelled at it. Hedman’s pairing didn’t even play against top competition this year, that was McDonagh’s pairing. Fox’s stats were significantly better than Hedman’s this past season offensively and defensively

 

[Garbageyuk]

Fox deserves it, but Hedman will probably win because of reputation.

 

[Reggiet2]

Fox deserves it, but Hedman will probably win because of reputation.

Fox doesn't deserve it, if you can't defend against good teams, I don't take you seriously because you padded stats against the 3 worst teams in hockey!