We're gonna be just fine. I did a little math for the absolute worst-case scenario. Like we be facing doomageddom here bois. Johnson buyout + Killorn trade + current room = $9,616,667 in cap space. And that is with 10 forwards and 4 D under contract. You just sign the 3 RFA's and have ABB and Volkov duke it out for the last roster spot and we're good. Hell in this scenario we haven't even traded Paquette. The RFA's aren't gonna take like $5 million each. That was their topline value. They'll sign for 3ish at most on short term deals because that's what will be asked of them. They will do it because that is the precedent and have been hearing about it their whole careers and are finally seeing it now.
We are at the point where this is about JBB waiting out the market before he has to make any other moves with the team.
If you feel your blood pressure going up or your heartrate racing allow me to direct your attention to the best medicine of drunk Kucherov
I don't you think you understand who all we need to sign with that $9.6m:
- First, you have to count the cap hit of the last roster spot guy once you call him up (that's $750k for ABB, or TBD for Volkov but >=$700k; TBD for Joseph as well).
- That only leaves $8.9m for the big 3 RFAs -- Serg, Cirelli AND Cernak
- So maaaaybe we can get there if one of the guys does the team-friendly thing (e.g Cernak for $1.7m, Serg for $4.5m and Cirelli cuts us a break by taking the rest -- $2.7m -- for one year with the promise of cashing in next year).
- But they might all demand proper compensation, and if so we can't keep all three under your scenario.
And even if we do get the team-friendly deal from one guy, then we've only got 18 skaters on roster and not a penny to spare. That means we can't bring anyone up from Syracuse at all during the RS without sending someone down or putting someone on LTIR (and ABB is is the only guy who is waiver exempt, so anyone else would have to pass through waivers). Given that the rules let you keep 23 guys on roster (typically 21 skaters and 2 goalies), trying to scrape through a full season with only enough money for 18 skaters is a really bad idea.
Last, you're assuming we buy out Johnson. That will mean we spend the next 8 seasons with (on average) $1.75m each year in dead cap space. I'll be shocked if does that -- you think we're hurting now, just wait until we try to get through Pointer's raise with that dead space.
Getting rid of Paquette and Coburn would help in loosening the collar on this (we can net $1m in usable space on each of them, after accounting for league-minimum replacements), but not really enough. I've been assuming we trade Killorn AND Johnson AND Paquette AND Coburn (if we get him to waive, but not absolutely critical if we can move the other 3).
So if we really can't trade Johnson this year, I'd put heavy odds that we trade away Cirelli, hopefully for some pretty serious futures value. Buying out Johnson is just too problematic long term, and really doesn't help that much.