Speculation: 2020-2021 Sharks Roster Discussion Part 8

[FunkyPhin]

I don't understand why we don't just keep Jones/Vlasic for another season, if anything they'll help our tank chances for next year, not like their value can get any lower than it is right now.

Trade players you can actually get decent returns for and prioritize high round picks.

 

[The Great John Scott]

I don't understand why we don't just keep Jones/Vlasic for another season, if anything they'll help our tank chances for next year, not like their value can get any lower than it is right now.

Trade players you can actually get decent returns for and prioritize high round picks.

I think keeping both would be a lot more palatable if DW or the front office would provide even just a wink and a nod toward their intention to tank next season, but they won’t and that’s the problem.

If the optics are status quo and the message remains “we intend to compete” but nothing is done, that’s where the ire comes from I think. Jones and Vlasic and many of the other contracts that are simply detrimental to this team’s success won’t just get better with “a full training camp or preseason,” or any other easy excuse for their abysmal play. There’s legitimate and overt rot in this team, from the front office to the players, and DW’s usual shroud of mystery isn’t doing anything to inspire confidence in their direction as a team.

I get the impression that DW overprepared for the expansion draft by simply foregoing anything worth protecting beyond the addled bones of this team, while also using this year as a springboard for rookies to try and earn roster spots. Okay, great. Now that that’s had mixed results, it’s time to pick a direction - either by improving and perhaps over-improving deficiencies on the team through trade or free agency, or opt for a longer solution by tanking/trading away as many assets as possible over the next few seasons and commit to a rebuild with the fans’ eyes wide open. But maybe neither will happen and we’ll go 3/3 on another wasted season.

 

[OffSydes]

My buddy went to school with DW jr and was able to give me a look into the Sharks offseason plan

 

[Bizz]

I don't understand why we don't just keep Jones/Vlasic for another season, if anything they'll help our tank chances for next year, not like their value can get any lower than it is right now.

Trade players you can actually get decent returns for and prioritize high round picks.

Vlasic and Jones are only going to get worse.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't understand why we don't just keep Jones/Vlasic for another season, if anything they'll help our tank chances for next year, not like their value can get any lower than it is right now.

Trade players you can actually get decent returns for and prioritize high round picks.

You get rid of them if you have a way to trade them off. Their spots and cap space are better utilized elsewhere.

 

[stator]

How come Kane is no longer fighting?
I'm wondering if that was on orders or just a personal decision

Watching Kane in the past years, I'd say it was a personal decision in the end. I've been watching him this season as he stays out of the sin bin. He's been up to #12 in goal scorers, but right now #20. On a good team, I believe he would be in the top ten.

Liking I've been saying, one cannot score from the sin bin, and Kane is a scoring winger. Couture could use some of his fortitude.

 

[Barrie22]

Watching Kane in the past years, I'd say it was a personal decision in the end. I've been watching him this season as he stays out of the sin bin. He's been up to #12 in goal scorers, but right now #20. On a good team, I believe he would be in the top ten.

Liking I've been saying, one cannot score from the sin bin, and Kane is a scoring winger. Couture could use some of his fortitude.

Couture depends to much on luck and others for him to truly be a top goal scorer even in the pavelski range.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Given that DW only used two of the three retention slots, I'm hoping that his plan is to retain on someone in a trade in the offseason prior to the league's year ending when the two would free up. If he can somehow unload Jones or Vlasic by only having to retain 2 mil or less, I'd call it a good start.

 

[STL Shark]

The biggest problem I have with DW is his inability to recognize and fix goaltending problems. Literally every other GM in the league, even the bad ones, would've done everything they could to get rid of Jones 3 years ago when his decline started. DW also held onto Niemi way longer than he should've which singlehandedly cost us the 2015 season.

3 years ago, the decline was abrupt and out of nowhere, so that is simply false. Would argue he should have found an option better than Dell to go on a playoff run with as his backup/insurance option like he did with Reimer over Stalock in 2016, but again Jones went from good goalie to bad goalie in one offseason so not going to rake him over the coals for that.

Last season, they expected a rebound given the abrupt decline and overall volatility and ebbs and flows of goalies. Obviously did not happen, but Jones' play over the final month of the season was enough reasoning for a glimmer of hope under a new staff. This season, they made a small move in Dubnyk as they knew they were not going to go for it this year and were looking for a cheap veteran option to split starts and sell at the TDL. They also shot higher and were connected to other names like Allen and Kuemper, but those prices were too high (assets for Kuemper and cap wise for Allen) to make the move in a year where you're just "resetting".

Re: Niemi, I am not sure what the alternative was as he was a league average NHL starter even at the end of his tenure while Stalock was the internal option to replace him. Was he supposed to buy him out or trade him without another plan/option in place?

If the argument relates to the internal development and drafting of goalies under DW, that is a viewpoint I can get behind and agree with. I think the Niemi situation was handled fine given the contract and play during the duration. The Jones deal is just a weird one as it was a staggeringly abrupt and had the overall goals of the organization been different this year, I think a more impactful move would have been made on Jones. That said, when you're "resetting" I don't think it is wise to pay extra buyout years on a player if you don't have to. I would expect there to be swift and dramatic moves made in the goaltending department this offseason with a Jones buyout likely and two new NHL goalies brought into the organization. DW's mouthpiece in LeBrun has basically said that #1 goal this offseason for the Sharks is to fix the goaltending.

 

[STL Shark]

Given that DW only used two of the three retention slots, I'm hoping that his plan is to retain on someone in a trade in the offseason prior to the league's year ending when the two would free up. If he can somehow unload Jones or Vlasic by only having to retain 2 mil or less, I'd call it a good start.

Would be more than a good start. It would be the single biggest fleece job DW has made since taking over as GM. Those are two of the worst contracts in the league. Only way you're going to get rid of them is a buyout (not going down that road again) or taking back an equally bad contract and hoping change of scenery makes the other bad player slightly less bad. There is really not a trade out there to be made for those players.

Jones can be bought out and not be too penal to the future of the organization due to his salary structure and term, but Vlasic's bonuses, length, salary, and NMC make it next to impossible to get rid of him no matter what. So just let him rid out another few years on the 3rd pairing (where he has not been bad at all) and maybe find a Brent Seabrook or Marian Hossa injury in the future to get rid of him. Or maybe the hockey gods grant us a CBO and use that on him.

 

[FunkyPhin]

You get rid of them if you have a way to trade them off. Their spots and cap space are better utilized elsewhere.

I mean if a trade was available you'd jump on it, but I don't see how something like that is going to happen, I don't think we have the assets to do it. I've seen people mention packaging Meier with Jones to Seattle, I think that's an overvaluation of Meier. I would balk at the idea of trading for a decent/average top 6 winger at 6 mill at the cost of taking on a terrible goalie at 5.75 mill for 3 more years, that 12 million could be way better spent. You can quote me here this isn't going to happen next year.

The only reasonable way I see Vlasic leaving is being bought out, I don't see any other team taking a flyer on him even with retention he's as bad as it's going to get, this team is absolutely no where close to being competitive and it'd be a herculean task to try and move them so why not focus on players that we can actually get value for?

Trade Burns, Kane, Couture, etc., get some quality picks/prospects, Jones' contract should be up when we're about to turn the corner and by then it'd be a good idea to buy out Vlasic.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Would be more than a good start. It would be the single biggest fleece job DW has made since taking over as GM. Those are two of the worst contracts in the league. Only way you're going to get rid of them is a buyout (not going down that road again) or taking back an equally bad contract and hoping change of scenery makes the other bad player slightly less bad. There is really not a trade out there to be made for those players.

Jones can be bought out and not be too penal to the future of the organization due to his salary structure and term, but Vlasic's bonuses, length, salary, and NMC make it next to impossible to get rid of him no matter what. So just let him rid out another few years on the 3rd pairing (where he has not been bad at all) and maybe find a Brent Seabrook or Marian Hossa injury in the future to get rid of him. Or maybe the hockey gods grant us a CBO and use that on him.

You may say that now but if the scenario of dumping him with a Timo Meier or Kevin Labanc thing comes about, they may still use a retention slot to make it work and depending on the return, a lot of people on your side of the fence may not like the result.

I mean if a trade was available you'd jump on it, but I don't see how something like that is going to happen, I don't think we have the assets to do it. I've seen people mention packaging Meier with Jones to Seattle, I think that's an overvaluation of Meier. I would balk at the idea of trading for a decent/average top 6 winger at 6 mill at the cost of taking on a terrible goalie at 5.75 mill for 3 more years, that 12 million could be way better spent. You can quote me here this isn't going to happen next year.

The only reasonable way I see Vlasic leaving is being bought out, I don't see any other team taking a flyer on him even with retention he's as bad as it's going to get, this team is absolutely no where close to being competitive and it'd be a herculean task to try and move them so why not focus on players that we can actually get value for?

Trade Burns, Kane, Couture, etc., get some quality picks/prospects, Jones' contract should be up when we're about to turn the corner and by then it'd be a good idea to buy out Vlasic.

If the team is blowing it up, they can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time. They can trade players with value while also looking to dump their dead weight contracts because both routes return value that the team can utilize more effectively in a rebuild. I honestly believe it's a stretch to believe that Burns, Kane, and Couture will return quality picks/prospects to the point that it's a huge boon for the team. Burns may return a 1st or quality prospect but we will need to retain somewhere around 1.5-2 mil or take back a contract that makes it work. Kane may be very productive but his reputation and off-ice issues likely kills his value even now and he also has a three team trade list. Couture probably has value but he's underperforming his contract if he's not getting into the playoffs and putting up his numbers there. There's no guarantee that any of those three return a future asset we can honestly depend on for various reasons but each of them having that three team trade list makes it hard to get value for them before other circumstances are even discussed.

 

[STL Shark]

You may say that now but if the scenario of dumping him with a Timo Meier or Kevin Labanc thing comes about, they may still use a retention slot to make it work and depending on the return, a lot of people on your side of the fence may not like the result.

Would still have to be taking back another bad contract even if you pair them with a Labanc or Meier. There is not a team in the league that is going to be able to take on $10-12 million in cap space without sending a bunch of money the other way. There may be a handful that can pull it off cap wise, but those teams also are operating under frugal internal budgets (i.e. Ottawa) and are not going to be waived on to go to for MEV. Buyout is the only truly plausible solution right now to get rid of the dollars and that is incredibly penal to the future of the organization. Otherwise it is going to be moving $ for $ just at another position though not much better of a player.

An option that would be worth exploring imo would be seeing if moving a bad contract could return you a Ryan Johansen from Nashville. Scoring has dried up, but underlying numbers are still very good and still just 28 and signed for 4 more years after this. Worst case is he solves the 3C situation and is an upgrade on Gambrell. Best case, he returns to form as a Couture level center. If you could take a $7 million 3rd pairing D-Man and turn it into an $8 million 3C, I could be on board with that sort of switcharoo. Even if it involves retaining a little on Vlasic's deal.

 

[tealzamboni]

I think keeping both would be a lot more palatable if DW or the front office would provide even just a wink and a nod toward their intention to tank next season, but they won’t and that’s the problem.

If the optics are status quo and the message remains “we intend to compete” but nothing is done, that’s where the ire comes from I think. Jones and Vlasic and many of the other contracts that are simply detrimental to this team’s success won’t just get better with “a full training camp or preseason,” or any other easy excuse for their abysmal play. There’s legitimate and overt rot in this team, from the front office to the players, and DW’s usual shroud of mystery isn’t doing anything to inspire confidence in their direction as a team.

I get the impression that DW overprepared for the expansion draft by simply foregoing anything worth protecting beyond the addled bones of this team, while also using this year as a springboard for rookies to try and earn roster spots. Okay, great. Now that that’s had mixed results, it’s time to pick a direction - either by improving and perhaps over-improving deficiencies on the team through trade or free agency, or opt for a longer solution by tanking/trading away as many assets as possible over the next few seasons and commit to a rebuild with the fans’ eyes wide open. But maybe neither will happen and we’ll go 3/3 on another wasted season.

It also seems like he's tapped the brakes on rookie development. As if he wants ample opportunity for his expansion exposures to look desirable and for the prospects to put up nice looking numbers in the AHL, so he'd have chips to work with Seattle. Not sure that the system and development area making those players look desirable though. But, I guess value will be up to what the trade partner thinks and needs.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Would still have to be taking back another bad contract even if you pair them with a Labanc or Meier. There is not a team in the league that is going to be able to take on $10-12 million in cap space without sending a bunch of money the other way. There may be a handful that can pull it off cap wise, but those teams also are operating under frugal internal budgets (i.e. Ottawa) and are not going to be waived on to go to for MEV. Buyout is the only truly plausible solution right now to get rid of the dollars and that is incredibly penal to the future of the organization. Otherwise it is going to be moving $ for $ just at another position though not much better of a player.

An option that would be worth exploring imo would be seeing if moving a bad contract could return you a Ryan Johansen from Nashville. Scoring has dried up, but underlying numbers are still very good and still just 28 and signed for 4 more years after this. Worst case is he solves the 3C situation and is an upgrade on Gambrell. Best case, he returns to form as a Couture level center. If you could take a $7 million 3rd pairing D-Man and turn it into an $8 million 3C, I could be on board with that sort of switcharoo. Even if it involves retaining a little on Vlasic's deal.

It may still involve taking cap dollars back but if it’s a significantly shorter term and/or more of a friendly buyout then it’s probably worth it just to get Vlasic out but I suspect any movement on Vlasic would be after the expansion draft and if Seattle took Simek then they may use that as an excuse to keep Vlasic to babysit a rookie replacement.

I’d be on board with swapping Vlasic for Johansen if Vlasic was willing to waive there. There’s not a lot of deals I wouldn’t do involving Vlasic. My limit is retaining more than two mil or a player like Skinner who is a winger we don’t need or Bob as a goalie that isn’t worth it.

 

[OrrNumber4]

An option that would be worth exploring imo would be seeing if moving a bad contract could return you a Ryan Johansen from Nashville. Scoring has dried up, but underlying numbers are still very good and still just 28 and signed for 4 more years after this. Worst case is he solves the 3C situation and is an upgrade on Gambrell. Best case, he returns to form as a Couture level center. If you could take a $7 million 3rd pairing D-Man and turn it into an $8 million 3C, I could be on board with that sort of switcharoo. Even if it involves retaining a little on Vlasic's deal.

If any team could rejuvenate Vlasic; it'd be Nashville.

 

[Pavelski2112]

If any team could rejuvenate Vlasic; it'd be Nashville.

Maybe a couple years ago, but they've fallen pretty hard. Not the defensive stalwart they used to be.

 

[magic school bus]

I agree they would revert to him being a workhorse if A) a coach is not specifically told not to do that by DW/New GM B) we do not actually have a goalie better than him.

This year for example, Dubnyk was not better than Jones, straight up wasnt. Sure maybe some fans liked how he looked in net better, or thought the team played better in front of him or something, but statistically he was not better. So while I agree with your concern, I also think that this team has not had anyone clearly superior to Jones yet to make him sitting actually feasible in the long term.

As for the bolded, why did you ask the original question if even you think its possible he could be a top 4 dman? Did you mean to ask if anyone thought he would be one by next season or something?

I don't think it's as likely Merkely becomes a top-4 guy as you do. Since you included him in your example with names like Ferraro & Karlsson.

He's disappointed at every level of his development if we're being honest.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't think it's as likely Merkely becomes a top-4 guy as you do. Since you included him in your example with names like Ferraro & Karlsson.

He's disappointed at every level of his development if we're being honest.

Right now, in his rookie pro season, he's on a 34 point full season pace in the AHL. Pretty pedestrian but I'm willing to give him more time given the circumstances of this past year. Next season should be a relatively normal season while he has gotten much needed pro experience and is around professionals to learn how to be a mature pro. It would make sense for him to take a step next season. Whether that step is enough to get him to the bigs is another question but the team shouldn't plan on it. I would still plan on drafting whoever, including someone like Clarke as an RHD if he's BPA when they pick, and move/bring in whoever. I'm amenable to the idea that Merkley will be a late bloomer but I'm not betting on it. The Sharks still have plenty of d-men to warrant opening one of the spots on the blue line for that sort of competition. I just worry that this GM won't do enough to move out what needs to be moved out. I understand the concept of holding onto players until their contracts are easier to buy out or trade but keeping them has its costs that could make it harder to turn around when you have the right sort of talent to build around. This is something I think they will get in 2022 but they need to do as much prep work for transitioning to a team that is built around that ELC as they can. That does include getting some non-NHL'ers that experience in the NHL next season.

 

[STL Shark]

I don't think it's as likely Merkely becomes a top-4 guy as you do. Since you included him in your example with names like Ferraro & Karlsson.

He's disappointed at every level of his development if we're being honest.

Yeah, I look at the guy many comp him to from his draft class (due to the stature and draft class connections) in Quinn Hughes and Hughes is already thriving from a point production standpoint in the NHL. Merkley is not even close to thriving in the AHL right now. He's never going to be a "good" defensive defenseman. That is not where my concern lies. The fact that he is struggling to put up points, which is his specialty, is the concerning part. I get that he's only 20, but historically guys that profile to be good to great offensive producers show that skillset early and often while the rest of their game takes time to round into form.

 

[Used As A Shield]

I haven't actually watched the Barracuda this year, but for Merkley to be a point producer, doesn't the team actually have to score? Seems none of our "skill" guys thrive on the Barracuda.

 

[Barrie22]

Just have to look no further then 1 of are norris trophy winners to see that some times offensive defensemen take a while to find there footing in the ahl or nhl.

 

[Hobocop]

I could write a lot on what's good and what's not good with Merkley, but I feel like it can be best summed up by just saying he needs to work on his effort level. Especially in the defensive zone.

 

[Karl Prime]

Just have to look no further then 1 of are norris trophy winners to see that some times offensive defensemen take a while to find there footing in the ahl or nhl.

Burns started as a forward so that's not really comparable. Karlsson needed a few weeks in the AHL after his first few games in the NHL and was dominant down there but then came back up and was good.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Burns started as a forward so that's not really comparable. Karlsson needed a few weeks in the AHL after his first few games in the NHL and was dominant down there but then came back up and was good.

Burns started his pro career as a defenseman after going through juniors as a forward.