Speculation: 2020-2021: Sharks Roster Discussion Part 4 - Still Offseason

[WSS11]

There are so many variables that will dictate how this season will go. Health of our top players and goaltending will be the obvious top two. Personally, I’m very interested to see how they play under a new system and what Rocky Thompson’s influence will look like 5 on 5 and on the PP. It’s been a long time since SJ has relied on team speed as a strength but it looks to be the direction we’re going in.

This team top to bottom has more talent than teams like the NYI and CBJ. Those two teams win and get into the playoffs by out working the other team and playing responsibly in their own zone. I could see SJ implementing a similar style geared around an aggressive forecheck and structured dzone coverage. Who knows? Maybe this new coaching staff will even inject some life back into Vlasic. Maybe it’s been so long since the sharks have been on that I’m being overly optimistic and I’m going to be let down a month into the season.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

There are so many variables that will dictate how this season will go. Health of our top players and goaltending will be the obvious top two. Personally, I’m very interested to see how they play under a new system and what Rocky Thompson’s influence will look like 5 on 5 and on the PP. It’s been a long time since SJ has relied on team speed as a strength but it looks to be the direction we’re going in.

This team top to bottom has more talent than teams like the NYI and CBJ. Those two teams win and get into the playoffs by out working the other team and playing responsibly in their own zone. I could see SJ implementing a similar style geared around an aggressive forecheck and structured dzone coverage. Who knows? Maybe this new coaching staff will even inject some life back into Vlasic. Maybe it’s been so long since the sharks have been on that I’m being overly optimistic and I’m going to be let down a month into the season.

I think this is a faulty premise.

 

[NWSharkie]

Yeah, I think the season will be defined by the overall defense.

So far, it's been shaky under Boughner, so I'd expect similar issues this year. Hopefully, Boughner took notes and has a good plan entering the season.

As for not caring about defense - I'm hoping part of that is just because DeBoer or the organization was harping on the stretch pass/low2high offense. That the players just got institutionalized into doing whatever it took to put/keep the puck in the offensive zone.
But even so, I agree the goalies still have to do their part. There were times last season when the goalies had solid positioning, the slot was decently defended, and rebounds were minimized, but the puck would still slip through.

I think the system overall failed the Sharks as much as anything last year. Forwards flew the D-zone early and left the defensemen with no options but skate it out or stretch pass, then in the offensive zone we had three forwards low with no possession support. Kick it to the points for a shot that goes off a shin pad, then chase it 200'. Rinse and repeat. It's hard to defend when you're starting 60' behind the play.

Hopefully, Thompson and Madden will instill at least a modicum of puck support and realize that 16 of their skaters won't be named Burns or Karlsson on any given night. Even Vlasic, who takes a lot of shit on this board and elsewhere, wasn't so much bad as he was playing the same game he's played his whole career and nobody else was. In his prime with Braun, both of those guys played like rod hockey D-men. Active sticks, good position, hold your ground and kick the puck to your support (partner or forward support). Vlasic did the same last year, but there was no support. You could certainly argue that that style isn't suited for the game today, that his lack of puck movement is a hindrance, or that it's on him for not updating his play style, but the system did him absolutely no favors. It's like PDB never figured out what Frankensystem he wanted to create out of the 2010s Sharks, the 2016 Penguins and the Knights, and just kind of slapped square pegs into round holes. If Boughner et al. come in with a fully fleshed-out plan, I wouldn't be surprised by a 30-point improvement by the team this year.

 

[WSS11]

 

[WSS11]

I think this is a faulty premise.

You believe those two clubs are more talented than SJ?

 

[hohosaregood]

You believe those two clubs are more talented than SJ?

I'd look at LA or Detroit to compare against first and go from there. ie Detroit: Mantha/Larkin/Zadina/Bertuzzi is probably roughly equivalent to Kane/Hertl/Couture/Meier. We got the edge on defense probably. They got the edge on goalies.

 

[WSS11]

I'd look at LA or Detroit to compare against first and go from there. ie Detroit: Mantha/Larkin/Zadina/Bertuzzi is probably roughly equivalent to Kane/Hertl/Couture/Meier. We got the edge on defense probably. They got the edge on goalies.

Pretty comparable statistically on a down year for SJ in a year CBJ made the playoffs. Of course, losing Thornton, Dillon, and Goody leaves question marks on how their replacements will produce.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You believe those two clubs are more talented than SJ?

I don't think it's at all a given that SJ is more talented than both of those teams; especially not if you define "talent" as something that a player currently possesses, and not the talent which they possessed at their absolute peak.

I don't necessarily think both of those clubs are more talented, but SJ being certainly more talented is a faulty premise to build an argument upon.

Pretty comparable statistically on a down year for SJ in a year CBJ made the playoffs. Of course, losing Thornton, Dillon, and Goody leaves question marks on how their replacements will produce.
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Comparing raw point totals of each player on the roster is not a very good way of assessing talent because points aren't a perfect measure of offensive talent, and more importantly because points don't even make an attempt to consider defensive talent or goaltending talent. Goaltenders aren't even included in those HockeyDB screenshots.

 

[WSS11]

I don't think it's at all a given that SJ is more talented than both of those teams; especially not if you define "talent" as something that a player currently possesses, and not the talent which they possessed at their absolute peak.

I don't necessarily think both of those clubs are more talented, but SJ being certainly more talented is a faulty premise to build an argument upon.



Comparing raw point totals of each player on the roster is not a very good way of assessing talent because points aren't a perfect measure of offensive talent, and more importantly because points don't even make an attempt to consider defensive talent or goaltending talent. Goaltenders aren't even included in those HockeyDB screenshots.

Wouldn’t you agree the same would apply when evaluating goaltending and defense? My argument is that it’s systematic. Our defense and goaltending were setup to fail under Deboer’s system. Trotz and Torts are more structured from that standpoint. The reason for my optimism is that after Tavares left, NYI fans were posting that they were heading for a potential lottery pick season. Trotz came in and they finished 23pts better in the standings. Hopefully the new coaching staff can do the same in SJ.

 

[Lebanezer]

Wouldn’t you agree the same would apply when evaluating goaltending and defense? My argument is that it’s systematic. Our defense and goaltending were setup to fail under Deboer’s system. Trotz and Torts are more structured from that standpoint. The reason for my optimism is that after Tavares left, NYI fans were posting that they were heading for a potential lottery pick season. Trotz came in and they finished 23pts better in the standings. Hopefully the new coaching staff can do the same in SJ.

There is no doubt that coaching was a huge issue last year, and in the preceding 2 seasons. I am most curious to see what Boughner can do. I think a quarter of the way into the season we’ll have a very good idea where the team is headed.

 

[LadyStanley]

San Jose Sharks have the talent to bounce back, but a lot has to go right

NBC on the "ifs" the Sharks face this upcoming season.

Can they return to offensive powerhouse (they lost with Donskoi and Pavelski departures)? Especially with losing one of their great assist guys (Jumbo).

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Wouldn’t you agree the same would apply when evaluating goaltending and defense? My argument is that it’s systematic. Our defense and goaltending were setup to fail under Deboer’s system. Trotz and Torts are more structured from that standpoint. The reason for my optimism is that after Tavares left, NYI fans were posting that they were heading for a potential lottery pick season. Trotz came in and they finished 23pts better in the standings. Hopefully the new coaching staff can do the same in SJ.

I don't think you can just hand wave away goaltending and defensive results by saying "it's systematic." Talent matters on defense too, and if you disagree with that statement, you have to extend that to say that a team of beer leaguers could play defense just as well as Columbus or the Islanders if they were coached by Tortorella or Trotz. I know that isn't exactly what you're trying to say here, but that is where your line of thinking leads to. Talent on defense matters. David Savard for example has a better track record defending than anybody on our team, probably largely in part to his talent. I suspect he would've had a solid defensive impact even under Deboer.

I really don't buy the "bad defense" excuses to the degree that they're being made for our goaltending either. One of our two goaltenders spent last season playing in Minnesota's excellent defensive system and was still awful. Jones looks better after adjusting for the quality of shots he's faced but he still looks bad.

In 2018, the Islanders didn't just add Trotz; they also added Robin Lehner. Not only is Boughner no Trotz, but Dubnyk is no Lehner. I don't think it's a good comparison.

 

[DG93]

Boy, hope is a dead idea here.

At times I forget that many of you only know the successes of this team. It tends to fuel the negativity of the posts.

Back in the 92-93 season, the Sharks won 11 games all season and we played 84 back then!! It was dismal. We won only 11 games. There was nothing to truly cheer for except the new arena. It was incredible. The team was still bad but the barn was cool.
Not much to look forward to for 93-94.
Lo and behold we made the playoffs and were a crossbar away from going to the WCF. Our goal scoring leader was Makarov who was nearly 40!!
Try to have some faith. The numbers are not the full answer. There is too much left to chance to determine that our boys, the team we support, can only be awful next season.

Go Sharks!!

You are certainly free to choose the path of blind optimism, but don't be surprised when other people have gloomier prospects of this objectively very mediocre San Jose team. I'm hoping for the best of course, but my expectations are a first or second playoff exit, and that's mostly because the Pacific division is a huge tire fire. If you choose to compare your expectations of a team spending to the cap to an 1992 expansion team, that's fine (although it's pretty ridiculous), but your condescending ass-licker type comments are somewhat irritating if I'm being honest.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

You are certainly free to choose the path of blind optimism, but don't be surprised when other people have gloomier prospects of this objectively very mediocre San Jose team. I'm hoping for the best of course, but my expectations are a first or second playoff exit, and that's mostly because the Pacific division is a huge tire fire. If you choose to compare your expectations of a team spending to the cap to an 1992 expansion team, that's fine (although it's pretty ridiculous), but your condescending ass-licker type comments are somewhat irritating if I'm being honest.

And that is my biggest issue with the current roster too. This is the best case scenario. But I would almost prefer to miss the playoffs and get a chance at another top-10 pick than that. And I truly feel that is what DW is trying to do. I just wish he would come out and say it.

 

[WSS11]

I don't think you can just hand wave away goaltending and defensive results by saying "it's systematic." Talent matters on defense too, and if you disagree with that statement, you have to extend that to say that a team of beer leaguers could play defense just as well as Columbus or the Islanders if they were coached by Tortorella or Trotz. I know that isn't exactly what you're trying to say here, but that is where your line of thinking leads to. Talent on defense matters. David Savard for example has a better track record defending than anybody on our team, probably largely in part to his talent. I suspect he would've had a solid defensive impact even under Deboer.

I really don't buy the "bad defense" excuses to the degree that they're being made for our goaltending either. One of our two goaltenders spent last season playing in Minnesota's excellent defensive system and was still awful. Jones looks better after adjusting for the quality of shots he's faced but he still looks bad.

In 2018, the Islanders didn't just add Trotz; they also added Robin Lehner. Not only is Boughner no Trotz, but Dubnyk is no Lehner. I don't think it's a good comparison.

I don’t agree with your assertion that it can’t be systematic. Explain the Blues changing coaches midseason and going from last in the west to a Stanley Cup winner with essentially the same roster halfway into the season. No, Binnington and co. wouldn’t have turned it around under Yeo.

Pens did the same thing in 15-16 firing Johnston and going with Sullivan. You also don’t know what Boughner will be with Thompson and Madden. He may not be Trotz but he did help take the Panthers from 81pts to 96pts in one season.

I agree that talent matters, but your statement regarding Savard is nothing but speculation when one team plays team defense and the other set the record for most odd man rushes against in a two year period.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

The vernacular is subject to how an individual intends to use it

Some call someone who scored 30 goals that one time a 30 goal scorer

Some call someone you can reasonably expect to score 30 goals in any given season a 30 goal scorer

These uses generally come within reason, it's tough to find someone who would refer to David Clarkson as a 30 goal scorer, for instance

I like to erode the ambiguity by being more explicit with my wording

In your instance, you appear to be referring to these players as "30 goal scorers" with the intent of giving an optimistic outlook on the top-6 for next year

I balk at this, not because I'm terribly hung up on an arbitrary milestone like scoring 30 goals, but because, in my opinion, your wording is overstating the kind of offensive output we should expect from these 4 players in one season

To expect these 4 to contribute roughly 120 goals combined next year is incredibly optimistic, to the point of being unrealistic

In 2019 (using the last 82 game season to make calculations easier on myself) teams on average scored 247.226 goals over the course of the season, to expect 4 players on one squad to account for over 48% of the average team's goal scoring output is just statically unlikely

Your first 2 point I agree with. Your bolded statement frankly makes no sense. You already agreed in how I used the term, but then tried to put.. what? Optimism on my statement to try and disagree? That doesn't even make sense. If you agree with the first 2 point above then that's all there is to it.

If a player accomplishes it and shows an ability to approximate it or achieve it again or has achieved it multiple times, that's a common term used in describing them in NHL circles, broadcasters, ex players working as analysts, coaches, GMs, etc Now if a player achieved it once in like much longer time period they would call them a one time 30 (insert number) goal scorer. All 4 of these guys are reasonably expected to produce 30 goals again (maybe not this season but they have the ability as they've already shown) either due to history (Couture & Kane) or youth and potential (Meier & Hertl). Now if you really want to discount Hertl, fine I can live with that. But when he's on, he's the one with the sheer talent and physical ability to outscore the other 3 as he's already shown. From my perspective, Hertl probably could have added another 10 to 15 points in his big season if he wasn't saddled with Donkey for a long stretch. So what I take from your disagreement is that you don't think these 4 players are worth optimism. Ok. Good to know. I guess we'll see how it pans out. I've fully admitted that this train could easily go off the rails if the team suffers a bunch of injuries to top players again. Most of you negative Nancies don't seem to have any room for the possibility that this team could be better than your learned prognostications. So let's revisit this at the half way mark and at seasons end and see how we did.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I don't think you can just hand wave away goaltending and defensive results by saying "it's systematic." Talent matters on defense too, and if you disagree with that statement, you have to extend that to say that a team of beer leaguers could play defense just as well as Columbus or the Islanders if they were coached by Tortorella or Trotz. I know that isn't exactly what you're trying to say here, but that is where your line of thinking leads to. Talent on defense matters. David Savard for example has a better track record defending than anybody on our team, probably largely in part to his talent. I suspect he would've had a solid defensive impact even under Deboer.

I really don't buy the "bad defense" excuses to the degree that they're being made for our goaltending either. One of our two goaltenders spent last season playing in Minnesota's excellent defensive system and was still awful. Jones looks better after adjusting for the quality of shots he's faced but he still looks bad.

In 2018, the Islanders didn't just add Trotz; they also added Robin Lehner. Not only is Boughner no Trotz, but Dubnyk is no Lehner. I don't think it's a good comparison.

The one thing I'll say again about the system is what I've said repeatedly over the last couple years. PDBs system at the offensive zone blue line was almost identical to how Rec leaguers play D in pickup. You pinch no matter what the odds are on a puck and if the goalie faces a break away or a 3 on 0, f*** him it's just pick up. That's exactly what they seemed to do every time there was a 50/50 or worse puck at the blue line and it's what led to them leading the league in High danger chances again. That immediately changed under BB and DW even mentions this fact multiple times in interviews after the coaching change. That is systematic and led to much worse goalie stats that weren't accurate representations of the goalies abilities. After a while of that crap the goalies get shellshocked and start to over compensate because they're getting hung out to dry all the time. If BB really continues installing a system that plays appropriate NHL level defense, the goalies will have a far greater chance to get their confidence back and achieve better stats to help the team win.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I don’t agree with your assertion that it can’t be systematic. Explain the Blues changing coaches midseason and going from last in the west to a Stanley Cup winner with essentially the same roster halfway into the season. No, Binnington and co. wouldn’t have turned it around under Yeo.

Pens did the same thing in 15-16 firing Johnston and going with Sullivan. You also don’t know what Boughner will be with Thompson and Madden. He may not be Trotz but he did help take the Panthers from 81pts to 96pts in one season.

I agree that talent matters, but your statement regarding Savard is nothing but speculation when one team plays team defense and the other set the record for most odd man rushes against in a two year period.

Of course the system and dedication to defense was a major reason.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

You are certainly free to choose the path of blind optimism, but don't be surprised when other people have gloomier prospects of this objectively very mediocre San Jose team. I'm hoping for the best of course, but my expectations are a first or second playoff exit, and that's mostly because the Pacific division is a huge tire fire. If you choose to compare your expectations of a team spending to the cap to an 1992 expansion team, that's fine (although it's pretty ridiculous), but your condescending ass-licker type comments are somewhat irritating if I'm being honest.

You can't assert for sure that your outlook is objective. Of course it's subjective. All these takes are. Also, mediocre is middle of the pack... that means most likely a playoff team or at least fighting for a spot at the end. Considering the state of the other teams in the pacific, there is no reason to think the Sharks won't have a legit shot at the playoffs.

 

[tmunnuch]

You pinch no matter what the odds are on a puck and if the goalie faces a break away or a 3 on 0, f*** him it's just pick up. That's exactly what they seemed to do every time there was a 50/50 or worse puck at the blue line and it's what led to them leading the league in High danger chances again.

I always imagined PDB did this because he felt no confidence in the goaltending' and defenses' ability to win games. Your goalies and top 3 defenders aren't so hot in the stopping the puck department, so might as well play to your strengths: offense from the defense. Obviously that didn't work out last season, but that's the only way I could make sense of why they played such a system.

 

[DG93]

You can't assert for sure that your outlook is objective. Of course it's subjective. All these takes are. Also, mediocre is middle of the pack... that means most likely a playoff team or at least fighting for a spot at the end. Considering the state of the other teams in the pacific, there is no reason to think the Sharks won't have a legit shot at the playoffs.

While there is subjectivity involved, I don't think there is much disagreement that this team is mediocre. Also, I did predict a 1st/2nd round exit, so I do agree with you that this is a playoff team.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I always imagined PDB did this because he felt no confidence in the goaltending' and defenses' ability to win games. Your goalies and top 3 defenders aren't so hot in the stopping the puck department, so might as well play to your strengths: offense from the defense. Obviously that didn't work out last season, but that's the only way I could make sense of why they played such a system.

Except that's the exact opposite approach if you have no faith in your goaltending. A coach would normally lock it down defensively and probably collapse back to the net in the defensive zone and block shots like crazy.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

While there is subjectivity involved, I don't think there is much disagreement that this team is mediocre. Also, I did predict a 1st/2nd round exit, so I do agree with you that this is a playoff team.

Yup, mediocre... middle of the pack. But the divisions don't divide the good teams and bad teams up evenly. Pacific may be the worst division in hockey next season. Hence the better odds than maybe should be that they are a playoff team and might actually get out of the first round. I think they could easily finish 2nd in the division. Since they've started using this dumb playoff seeding it might give them an easy-ish 1st round series to get to the 2nd round.

Speaking of which... which team is moving to the central after Seattle comes in? Az? Probably makes the most sense and I'm sure they don't want to break up the Vegas SJ rivalry.

 

[weastern bias]

Your first 2 point I agree with. Your bolded statement frankly makes no sense. You already agreed in how I used the term, but then tried to put.. what? Optimism on my statement to try and disagree? That doesn't even make sense. If you agree with the first 2 point above then that's all there is to it.

If a player accomplishes it and shows an ability to approximate it or achieve it again or has achieved it multiple times, that's a common term used in describing them in NHL circles, broadcasters, ex players working as analysts, coaches, GMs, etc Now if a player achieved it once in like much longer time period they would call them a one time 30 (insert number) goal scorer. All 4 of these guys are reasonably expected to produce 30 goals again (maybe not this season but they have the ability as they've already shown) either due to history (Couture & Kane) or youth and potential (Meier & Hertl). Now if you really want to discount Hertl, fine I can live with that. But when he's on, he's the one with the sheer talent and physical ability to outscore the other 3 as he's already shown. From my perspective, Hertl probably could have added another 10 to 15 points in his big season if he wasn't saddled with Donkey for a long stretch. So what I take from your disagreement is that you don't think these 4 players are worth optimism. Ok. Good to know. I guess we'll see how it pans out. I've fully admitted that this train could easily go off the rails if the team suffers a bunch of injuries to top players again. Most of you negative Nancies don't seem to have any room for the possibility that this team could be better than your learned prognostications. So let's revisit this at the half way mark and at seasons end and see how we did.

Sure, all 4 of those players have shown an ability to score 30+ goals in a season, my point is that it is unrealistic to expect all 4 of them to score 30+ goals in the same season, based on their histories there is literally 1/10 of 1% chance of that happening

[(3/11)×(2/11)×(1/7)×(1/4)] = 0.00177

 

[Barrie22]

Yup, mediocre... middle of the pack. But the divisions don't divide the good teams and bad teams up evenly. Pacific may be the worst division in hockey next season. Hence the better odds than maybe should be that they are a playoff team and might actually get out of the first round. I think they could easily finish 2nd in the division. Since they've started using this dumb playoff seeding it might give them an easy-ish 1st round series to get to the 2nd round.

Speaking of which... which team is moving to the central after Seattle comes in? Az? Probably makes the most sense and I'm sure they don't want to break up the Vegas SJ rivalry.

Arizona makes the most sense distance and time zone. And to be honest also rivalry wise they fit better in the central also.