Speculation: 2020-2021: Sharks Roster Discussion Part 4 - Still Offseason

[WTFetus]

Continue. Speculation: - 2020-2021: Sharks Roster Discussion Part 3 - It's still the Offseason

There will be a dedicated GDT for free agency, but this could be the before and after thread.

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[TomasHertlsRooster]

So, Craig Smith:

2019-20 - 69 GP, 18 G, 13 A, 34 PIM, 184 SOG, 13:25 ATOI, 4/3 PPG/A
2018-19 - 76 GP, 21 G, 17 A, 20 PIM, 205 SOG, 15:08 ATOI, 4/4 PPG/A
2017-18 - 79 GP, 25 G, 26 A, 24 PIM, 229 SOG, 15:23 ATOI, 9/5 PPG/A

Smith was 11th in even-strength icetime and seventh in power-play icetime for Nashville last year. His most common linemates were Nick Bonino and Rocco Grimaldi, with their combined icetime primarily functioning as Nashville's third line. Smith does not kill penalties or take many faceoffs.

His minutes have declined over the last three seasons - is it a function of Nashville getting better and pushing Smith down the depth chart, or has he somehow declined?

Evolving Hockey xGAR

2019-20 - +5.8 xEVO, +1.5 xEVD, -1.3 xPPO
2018-19 -
+1.7 xEVO, -0.1 xEVD, -1.7 xPPO
2017-18 - +0.7 xEVO, +1.7 xEVD, +1.9 xPPO

He's good offensively and defensively at even strength, but his last two years on the power play have been poor

HockeyViz

2019-20 - even strength 3.41 xGF/60 (+33%), 2.56 xGA/60 (+0%), power play 8.56 xGF/60 (+20%)
2018-19 - even strength 2.63 xGF/60 (+1%), 2.41 xGA/60 (-7%), power play 6.48 xGF/60 (-8%)
2017-18 - even strength 3.31 xGF/6- (+32%), 2.37 xGA/60 (-6%), power play 7.62 xGF/60 (+3%)

Most of his power play shots in the last three seasons came in the slot.

Corey Sznadjer

2019-20 - 62.5% carry-in percentage, 15.05 zone entries/60, 17.2% entry w/ pass
2018-19 - 58.1% carry-in percentage, 16.99 zone entries/60, 17.1% entry w/ pass
2017-18 - 49.7% carry-in percentage, 21.08 zone entries/60, 16.3% entry w/ pass

Average carry-in percentage is around 50%, average zone entries/60 around 19, average entry w/ pass around 17%

Smith is more a shooter than a passer, hovering around average for primary assists/60 but well above average shots/60. Not a lot of high danger passes, or point shot setups. Very good at entering the offensive zone.

Defensively, lots of defensive zone exits but below-average defensive zone exits with possession. Previous two years he had lots of failed zone exits, but improved significantly for 19-20. However, his forechecking also went from above average to slightly below average over the same time frame.

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To summarize what data I've gathered, Craig Smith is very good at zone entries, is more a shooter than a passer, and is reasonably capable defensively but does not kill penalties. He seems to either have declined or been pushed down Nashville's depth chart - I couldn't say which or why. I don't know how good he is as a skater, and I don't know how good his shot is beyond that it appears to produce good results on the scoresheet - hopefully someone with more hockey knowledge can speak to those traits. He's not an elite player and probably is not a top 6 forward on a very good team, but if he comes reasonably cheap, he would probably fit well with this team and should be considered a strong target (particularly if Dadonov and Toffoli are expected to be out of the Sharks' budget).

Smith is a top-6 forward on every team in the league.

What Makes Craig Smith an Analytical Favourite?

 

[KirbyDots]

Smith is a top-6 forward on every team in the league.

What Makes Craig Smith an Analytical Favourite?

I've been thinking Smith is a likely target for awhile now. He should come much cheaper than Dadonov or Toffoli, possibly cheap enough for us to either sign another depth forward or bottom pairing dman.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Unlike 2016, this team doesn't have the bargains on the roster. That 2016 team had surplus-value throughout. Hertl, Donskoi, Tierney, Nieto, and DeMelo were on their ELCs; Melker Karlsson was just doubling the league minimum. Jones was playing thrice as well and making half of what he is now. Burns had a Norris-quality season (especially the 2nd half onwards) with a cap hit under $6 million while Vlasic-Braun had a combined hit of $8 million. Even the higher-paid guys like Thornton, Pavelski, and Couture provided the Sharks a deal. Outside of the dead weight of Burish's buyout, only Marleau, Stalock, Wingels, and Dillon were overpaid...and that combined overpay can't outweigh Jones alone this season.

 

[KirbyDots]

Unlike 2016, this team doesn't have the bargains on the roster. That 2016 team had surplus-value throughout. Hertl, Donskoi, Tierney, Nieto, and DeMelo were on their ELCs; Melker Karlsson was just doubling the league minimum. Jones was playing thrice as well and making half of what he is now. Burns had a Norris-quality season (especially the 2nd half onwards) with a cap hit under $6 million while Vlasic-Braun had a combined hit of $8 million. Even the higher-paid guys like Thornton, Pavelski, and Couture provided the Sharks a deal. Outside of the dead weight of Burish's buyout, only Marleau, Stalock, Wingels, and Dillon were overpaid...and that combined overpay can't outweigh Jones alone this season.

We're fine for capspace for our needs. We don't need to sign Hall. Smith is being discussed above, he'd be fine. Dadonov and Toffili could price themselves out of our range but there are players we can trade for who are just as good that are available.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Unlike 2016, this team doesn't have the bargains on the roster. That 2016 team had surplus-value throughout. Hertl, Donskoi, Tierney, Nieto, and DeMelo were on their ELCs; Melker Karlsson was just doubling the league minimum. Jones was playing thrice as well and making half of what he is now. Burns had a Norris-quality season (especially the 2nd half onwards) with a cap hit under $6 million while Vlasic-Braun had a combined hit of $8 million. Even the higher-paid guys like Thornton, Pavelski, and Couture provided the Sharks a deal. Outside of the dead weight of Burish's buyout, only Marleau, Stalock, Wingels, and Dillon were overpaid...and that combined overpay can't outweigh Jones alone this season.

Tierney and DeMelo were not providing surplus value in 2016.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Tierney and DeMelo were not providing surplus value in 2016.

That's probably more-or-less fair (and the same is true for Nieto)...but, consider that Tierney, DeMelo, and Nieto were making the same, roughly, as players like Suomela, Middleton, and Gregor. I'd much rather go with the former trio, though perhaps that is nostalgia talking.

 

[hohosaregood]

I think Smith should be our prime target. As it's been pointed out, he's an analytics darling that can fill in a spot anywhere in the top 9. With his counting stats, he shouldn't make more than $4m.

Beyond that, I'd look into Bobby Ryan. Ryan+Smith would be a pretty ideal off-season for me even if it's not too flashy.

 

[Pavelski2112]

I think Smith should be our prime target. As it's been pointed out, he's an analytics darling that can fill in a spot anywhere in the top 9. With his counting stats, he shouldn't make more than $4m.

Beyond that, I'd look into Bobby Ryan. Ryan+Smith would be a pretty ideal off-season for me even if it's not too flashy.

I would be absolutely pleased with that.

 

[KirbyDots]

That's probably more-or-less fair (and the same is true for Nieto)...but, consider that Tierney, DeMelo, and Nieto were making the same, roughly, as players like Suomela, Middleton, and Gregor. I'd much rather go with the former trio, though perhaps that is nostalgia talking.

There will be kids that progress this year. Lord knows we have like 50 4th liners now, somebody has to get better. Of the names you listed I'd say Tierney>Suomela, DeMelo(then)=Middleton, Nieto>=Gregor. I watched Nieto his entire time at BU, I own a Nieto jersey, and during his time here was his biggest defender. Gregor or possibly Leonard could easily step up and provide what he brought. Leonard's college hockey career was arguably better than Nieto's, they played in the same division and are exactly the same height and weight. He could probably bring something similar to what Nieto brought, we just have to wait and see.

 

[KirbyDots]

I think Smith should be our prime target. As it's been pointed out, he's an analytics darling that can fill in a spot anywhere in the top 9. With his counting stats, he shouldn't make more than $4m.

Beyond that, I'd look into Bobby Ryan. Ryan+Smith would be a pretty ideal off-season for me even if it's not too flashy.

I concur. I think we have just enough cap space to pull it off with maybe a little left over if we're lucky. It's either that or we spend everything on a single top 6.

 

[STL Shark]

I think Smith should be our prime target. As it's been pointed out, he's an analytics darling that can fill in a spot anywhere in the top 9. With his counting stats, he shouldn't make more than $4m.

Beyond that, I'd look into Bobby Ryan. Ryan+Smith would be a pretty ideal off-season for me even if it's not too flashy.

Smith scares me. Been an analytics darling his whole career and has only been a 0.5 PPG scorer for the entirety of it. It’s not like he was on a bad team or anything like that either. I suppose I’d rather have him at $4 mil than Toffoli for $6 mil, but I just don’t think Smith moves the needle in any way for this group. If there’s a second top 9 forward addition made in addition to Smith, I guess I can get on boar, but I just worry that $4 mil on Smith is going to bite us in the arse later on as he’s not a difference maker.

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

I’d like Granlund for the right price (Hopefully 5mil AAV)
Think he has the biggest boom potential of all the FAs besides Hall.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The team needs a top six forward and 3rd pairing RHD. I think everyone is aware of this but it's whether DW does it or not or how he decides to do it. We'll see. The 3rd pairing RHD could be left open for Merkley depending on how they see him. Even with a good draft, none of them are ready for January so they need a guy up front if they expect to compete.

 

[STL Shark]

I’d like Granlund for the right price (Hopefully 5mil AAV)
Think he has the biggest boom potential of all the FAs besides Hall.

He also fits stylistically as a playmaker/distributor. Would be a good fit on the Couture-Meier line I think.

 

[Barrie22]

Statsny traded to the jets.

 

[ChompChomp]

Do the Sharks ever sign anyone on day 1 of free agency? I cant even remember

One year, Thornton and (I think) Marleau's first days they could be extended fell on day 1 and to deflect away from not signing any big UFAs, the Sharks announced they had extended Thornton and Marleau lol

 

[Mafoofoo]

Statsny traded to the jets.

How wonderful for the Jets to help Vegas clear space to sign Pietrangelo

 

[Barrie22]

How wonderful for the Jets to help Vegas clear space to sign Pietrangelo

Still not possible, the knights have 2.8 million in cap space and need to still sign 1 or 2 forwards. They would still need to clear out another good 10 million dollars to be able to sign piets and fill out the rest of the roster.

 

[Levie]

Still not possible, the knights have 2.8 million in cap space and need to still sign 1 or 2 forwards. They would still need to clear out another good 10 million dollars to be able to sign piets and fill out the rest of the roster.

I'm thinking they are going to get rid of Fleury, and probably ship out future picks to make it happen. We'll see.

 

[wishman]

I'm thinking they are going to get rid of Fleury, and probably ship out future picks to make it happen. We'll see.

I think Alec Martinez will be traded as well.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm thinking they are going to get rid of Fleury, and probably ship out future picks to make it happen. We'll see.

They're doing everything they can to send Fleury to Minnesota for as little cap as possible. Given that Guerin pretty much picked up Bonino because of his player ties to him with Pittsburgh, it wouldn't surprise me if he went with it. If they pull that off, it makes it a lot more realistic though they'd still need to move probably Alec Martinez to make it happen but that would be feasible if Fleury is moved.

 

[one2gamble]

I'm thinking they are going to get rid of Fleury, and probably ship out future picks to make it happen. We'll see.

The are competing with Tampa to shed a lot of cap, they might need to give up a lot more than they were planning

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

As of now, our roster sits as

Kane - Hertl - Timo
Donato - Cooch - LaBanc
Sorenson - Handemark - Gregor
Noesen - Kellman - Who knows

Vlasic - EK65
Simek - Burns
Paschinuk - Ferraro

Jones
Dubnyk

Yikes. At least we have our first round pick this year.

 

[themelkman]

As of now, our roster sits as

Kane - Hertl - Timo
Donato - Cooch - LaBanc
Sorenson - Handemark - Gregor
Noesen - Kellman - Who knows

Vlasic - EK65
Simek - Burns
Paschinuk - Ferraro

Jones
Dubnyk

Yikes. At least we have our first round pick this year.

Marleau lol