Speculation: 2020-2021: Sharks Roster Discussion Part 4 - Still Offseason

[Alaskanice]

You are certainly free to choose the path of blind optimism, but don't be surprised when other people have gloomier prospects of this objectively very mediocre San Jose team. I'm hoping for the best of course, but my expectations are a first or second playoff exit, and that's mostly because the Pacific division is a huge tire fire. If you choose to compare your expectations of a team spending to the cap to an 1992 expansion team, that's fine (although it's pretty ridiculous), but your condescending ass-licker type comments are somewhat irritating if I'm being honest.

My apologies for irritating you. I was trying to provide some perspective.

 

[themelkman]

NHL offseason by the numbers: Which teams have improved the most (and least)?
According to Dom Luszczyszyn's model, we are one of the only teams that added salary and added negative wins to the team. This is mostly because of Dubynk though

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

NHL offseason by the numbers: Which teams have improved the most (and least)?
According to Dom Luszczyszyn's model, we are one of the only teams that added salary and added negative wins to the team. This is mostly because of Dubynk though

Regarding Dubnyk, “He’s projected to be the league’s worst goalie”

 

[Sysreq]

Added salary to lose wins.

 

[Gecklund]

Added salary to lose the lottery.

Fixed

 

[Dicdonya]

NHL offseason by the numbers: Which teams have improved the most (and least)?
According to Dom Luszczyszyn's model, we are one of the only teams that added salary and added negative wins to the team. This is mostly because of Dubynk though

Not that it matters to your point, but we weren't the only ones, Ott is in the same quadrant as us

 

[Erep]

Arizona makes the most sense distance and time zone. And to be honest also rivalry wise they fit better in the central also.

Seattle approved as 32nd NHL franchise, to start play in 2021-22
It has been confirmed for a while; Arizona will move to the central division.

 

[Kcoyote3]

I for one think that:

Kane-Hertl-Meier
Donato-Couture-Labanc

Can do alright. Donato and Couture being trigger-men and Labanc being a playmaker hopefully with some more creative schemes and help from the backend might work out.

 

[Mr Fahrenheit]

Sure, all 4 of those players have shown an ability to score 30+ goals in a season, my point is that it is unrealistic to expect all 4 of them to score 30+ goals in the same season, based on their histories there is literally 1/10 of 1% chance of that happening

[(3/11)×(2/11)×(1/7)×(1/4)] = 0.00177

I hope you dont actually think thats how it works

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Sure, all 4 of those players have shown an ability to score 30+ goals in a season, my point is that it is unrealistic to expect all 4 of them to score 30+ goals in the same season, based on their histories there is literally 1/10 of 1% chance of that happening

[(3/11)×(2/11)×(1/7)×(1/4)] = 0.00177

That's not an accurate look at it and that's not what that statement means. It's not a guarantee, it's not even a prediction per se. It's more a statement about the talent level. 30 goals in this day and age is not insignificant. I can see you're just ignoring common convention because you feel the need to be right or maybe it's just to argue. You're not right in taking issue with the comment. It makes it sound like hockey is a language you're unfamiliar with. So go ahead and think what you want or need to in this case. Just know you're wrong.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I for one think that:

Kane-Hertl-Meier
Donato-Couture-Labanc

Can do alright. Donato and Couture being trigger-men and Labanc being a playmaker hopefully with some more creative schemes and help from the backend might work out.

The 2nd line will probably get killed. You can't have your best 3 of 4 possession forward on one line leaving Couture and Labanc on their own.

If you want to throw the 2 tweeners together they need to be with Hertl.

Kane-Couture-Meier
Donato-Hertl-Labanc

If Hertl is in total beast mode this might work but frankly why risk it and put so much pressure on Hertl while coming back from an injury. Another poster put up these lines which I agree would be best until we see what the team has with Donato and whatever improvement with Labanc and regression with Couture.

Donato-Couture-Meier
Kane-Hertl-Labanc

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I hope you dont actually think thats how it works

Ok good. Glad I'm not the only one.

 

[themelkman]

I think we need to keep Kane-Hertl-Labanc together. Its the only line that Labanc did well with last year. Figuring out who can play with Meier-Couture is another thing

 

[Saskatoon]

Regarding Dubnyk, “He’s projected to be the league’s worst goalie”

Nabby must see something because I dont know why we don't just go with Dell for 700k. Even if Dubynk has a Renaissance we still can't afford to pay him next year.

Or maybe Dubnyk was part of the tank 2020 strategy lol

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

NHL offseason by the numbers: Which teams have improved the most (and least)?
According to Dom Luszczyszyn's model, we are one of the only teams that added salary and added negative wins to the team. This is mostly because of Dubynk though

It's a "model", Not Nostradamus. Let's see what reality has to say about all this next season.

 

[hohosaregood]

I think we need to keep Kane-Hertl-Labanc together. Its the only line that Labanc did well with last year. Figuring out who can play with Meier-Couture is another thing

Meier and Couture need a distributor that can control the pace of play to some degree. Meier might have the potential to be that guy but he's got a very crash and bang tempo to his game.

 

[Cas]

It's a "model", Not Nostradamus. Let's see what reality has to say about all this next season.

Do they use projections for performance next year, or just last year's performance?

Because both are interesting but not necessarily predictive, just in different ways.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Do they use projections for performance next year, or just last year's performance?

Because both are interesting but not necessarily predictive, just in different ways.

Projections for next year’s performance that are based off a mixture of age and performance over the last few seasons.

 

[Dicdonya]

I think we need to keep Kane-Hertl-Labanc together. Its the only line that Labanc did well with last year. Figuring out who can play with Meier-Couture is another thing

This is not exactly true. He did fine with Thornton and Meier as well.

As a line with Hertl Kane/ 54.4 CF% 50.00 GF% 59.00 XGF% 51.67 HDCF% and a .997 PDO
As a line with Thornton Meier/ 55.8 CF% 41.67 GF% 58.70 XGF% 60.61 HDCF% and .953 PDO.

Clearly Thornton isn't here any more, so that line cannot be put together, nor would it since Cooch exists, but Labanc did not only do well with Hertl/Kane. In fact he did better without them in this circumstance, and that line had room to grow based on that PDO.

Looking at it closer, it appears Hertl and Labanc work well together, but add Kane and they get worse as a duo. Seeing as how I do not like Kane/Hertl as a duo, that fits with my view of the situation, which is why I would rather Kane play with Cooch.

Preferably I would like a line of Meier-Hertl-Labanc....the only issue is that DW brought in another shooter instead of a playmaker, so the second line of Kane-Cooch-Donato does not look good on paper to me at all. So unless one of the prospects forces their way into a top 6 role as a playmaker, I guess I do not like that line.

So for me I would actually agree with trying Kane-Hertl-Meier, just load up, hopefully draw all the hardest competition and still do well, and leave Cooch/Labanc+ whoever earns the 2nd line winger spot to mop up lesser comps. Cooch and Labanc do have history of doing well together, plus if Donato is the other winger, Labanc can be the primary playmaker for those two, while Hertl and/or Meier share that role on the top line.

Really we need a better top 6 playmaker to balance the lines better, but oh well.

 

[DG93]

This is not exactly true. He did fine with Thornton and Meier as well.

As a line with Hertl Kane/ 54.4 CF% 50.00 GF% 59.00 XGF% 51.67 HDCF% and a .997 PDO
As a line with Thornton Meier/ 55.8 CF% 41.67 GF% 58.70 XGF% 60.61 HDCF% and .953 PDO.

Clearly Thornton isn't here any more, so that line cannot be put together, nor would it since Cooch exists, but Labanc did not only do well with Hertl/Kane. In fact he did better without them in this circumstance, and that line had room to grow based on that PDO.

Looking at it closer, it appears Hertl and Labanc work well together, but add Kane and they get worse as a duo. Seeing as how I do not like Kane/Hertl as a duo, that fits with my view of the situation, which is why I would rather Kane play with Cooch.

Preferably I would like a line of Meier-Hertl-Labanc....the only issue is that DW brought in another shooter instead of a playmaker, so the second line of Kane-Cooch-Donato does not look good on paper to me at all. So unless one of the prospects forces their way into a top 6 role as a playmaker, I guess I do not like that line.

So for me I would actually agree with trying Kane-Hertl-Meier, just load up, hopefully draw all the hardest competition and still do well, and leave Cooch/Labanc+ whoever earns the 2nd line winger spot to mop up lesser comps. Cooch and Labanc do have history of doing well together, plus if Donato is the other winger, Labanc can be the primary playmaker for those two, while Hertl and/or Meier share that role on the top line.

Really we need a better top 6 playmaker to balance the lines better, but oh well.

I think Labanc has to be on a line with one of Hertl or Meier. That can be either with both of them, or they need to be separated. I don't think a 9-39-62 would do very well...

 

[CupfortheSharks]

In the past, Couture tends to get sent out against the other teams top lines. It wouldn’t surprise me if they tried a defensively responsible forward like Nieto with Meier and Couture. Then they could drop Donato to the 3rd line to give it more goal scoring.

 

[themelkman]

In the past, Couture tends to get sent out against the other teams top lines. It wouldn’t surprise me if they tried a defensively responsible forward like Nieto with Meier and Couture. Then they could drop Donato to the 3rd line to give it more goal scoring.

I mean they ran Marleau with them last year, and while I thought that was a bad idea, we didnt have really any other options.

 

[The Nemesis]

So...

we have crap center depth.

and the blackhawks are officially announcing their intent to rebuild.

and the sharks have now lost Pavelski and Thornton, two premiere leaders of this team for the last generation or so in two consecutive seasons

in before DW trades Merkley to Chicago for Toews.

 

[Cas]

So unless one of the prospects forces their way into a top 6 role as a playmaker, I guess I do not like that line... Really we need a better top 6 playmaker to balance the lines better, but oh well.

Who are the best playmakers on the Barracuda? Chmelevski and Blichfeld? Leonard and McGrew are more shooters, and that's mostly how I remember Gregor. Most of the other forwards are more bottom-six players with limited offensive upside (Bergmann, True, Letunov, Viel, Gallant, Suomela, Händemark, Kellman). I'm not sure how to characterize Halbgewachs or Yurtaikin.

Let's hope one of them proves they have NHL talent this year. Might be the only chance to acquire a playmaker, which is pretty disappointing.

 

[Hobocop]

Who are the best playmakers on the Barracuda? Chmelevski and Blichfeld? Leonard and McGrew are more shooters, and that's mostly how I remember Gregor. Most of the other forwards are more bottom-six players with limited offensive upside (Bergmann, True, Letunov, Viel, Gallant, Suomela, Händemark, Kellman). I'm not sure how to characterize Halbgewachs or Yurtaikin.

Let's hope one of them proves they have NHL talent this year. Might be the only chance to acquire a playmaker, which is pretty disappointing.

If you're just going by who the best playmaker is, it's Letunov IMO. But his deficiencies elsewhere make it hard to recommend him as an NHL solution.