Prospect Info: 2020-2021 Senators Prospect Watch - Part 2

[dumbdick]

Haha. This one got cleansed back quite a bit.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Haha. This one got cleansed back quite a bit.

probably would have slid without that "nailed" comment that just had to be said

 

[aragorn]

Best players drafted in 2020 by the Sens:

1. Stuetzle LW/C
2. Sanderson LD
3. Jarventie LW
4. Sokolov RW
5. Kleven LD
6. Merilanen G
7. Greig LW
8. Daoust LW
9. Engstrand RW
10. Reinhardt LW

 

[TheDebater]

Balcers flying under the radar this year, I think he has become one of our most underrated prospects due to our depth after the 2020 draft.



15 points in 10 GP

 

[Xspyrit]

Best players drafted in 2020:

1. Stuetzle LW/C
2. Sanderson LD
3. Jarventie LW
4. Sokolov RW
5. Kleven LD
6. Merilanen G
7. Greig LW
8. Daoust LW
9. Engstrand RW
10. Reinhardt LW

I'd have it

1. Stuetzle
2. Lafreniere
3. Sanderson
4. Jarventie
5. Raymond
6. Kleven
7. Sokolov
8. Greig
9. Daoust
10. Merilanen

11+ Rest of the NHL

Busts : Engstrand, Reinhardt, many others

Balcers flying under the radar this year, I think he had become one of our most underrated prospects due to our depth after the 2020 draft.



15 points in 10 GP

I was 0.75 PPG when I played there though... as a goalie

Seriously, it's not a "bad league" but still a tier below the Liiga for example. If he was scoring under that level, it wouldn't be a good sign

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Samsquanch]

Balcers flying under the radar this year, I think he had become one of our most underrated prospects due to our depth after the 2020 draft.



15 points in 10 GP

Agreed. Hes got way more pro upside than most give him credit for.

I think his game translates well to the pros, if you can get over his size I guess.. Had he not got injured he would probably be a full time NHLer by now.

And just like when he was at the time of the trade, I bet he would still be among the Sharks top prospects, and a welcome addition to their current roster.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Balcers flying under the radar this year, I think he had become one of our most underrated prospects due to our depth after the 2020 draft.



15 points in 10 GP

Definately, he's overlooked and underrated here, he's a good prospect.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[R2010]

Interesting assessment of different 'draft ranking sources' in the table below:



It's linked to from Culmore's piece
2020 NHL Draft By The Numbers Part 1: Biggest Steals and Reaches, List Accuracy

I don't like the consolidated rankings way he does things but interesting to see which sources are closest to where people went. No surprise to see Bob at the top and all of elite prospects group way down

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Interesting assessment of different 'draft ranking sources' in the table below:



It's linked to from Culmore's piece
2020 NHL Draft By The Numbers Part 1: Biggest Steals and Reaches, List Accuracy

I don't like the consolidated rankings way he does things but interesting to see which sources are closest to where people went. No surprise to see Bob at the top and all of elite prospects group way down

The 2019 list by the numbers

Derek Neumeier - Defending Big D - 4th 2 years in a row is not bad.
10 NHL team scouts from Bob have a definite advantage as to how the actual draft will go.
Consolidated list 2nd in 2019, 5th in 2020 also not bad

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Interesting assessment of different 'draft ranking sources' in the table below:



It's linked to from Culmore's piece
2020 NHL Draft By The Numbers Part 1: Biggest Steals and Reaches, List Accuracy

I don't like the consolidated rankings way he does things but interesting to see which sources are closest to where people went. No surprise to see Bob at the top and all of elite prospects group way down

That was a fun read actually but I'm not really sure what we can learn from it other than perhaps some teams are a little bit more inclined to stray from the consensus.

And I don't like the characterization of a player like Sanderson being one of the biggest reaches. He was definitely in a tier of players that could have gone 4-12 (or so). To say he's a bigger reach at 5 than Mukhamadullin at 20 seems out there to me. But it's a numerical model and he sticks to it rigidly. He also explains his methods and results with no clear bias or unnecessary interpretation.

It WILL be interesting to see how the perceived reachers will have done when the dust settles in 5 or 6 years. Same for the teams who got "steals".

 

[Cosmix]

Interesting assessment of different 'draft ranking sources' in the table below:



It's linked to from Culmore's piece
2020 NHL Draft By The Numbers Part 1: Biggest Steals and Reaches, List Accuracy

I don't like the consolidated rankings way he does things but interesting to see which sources are closest to where people went. No surprise to see Bob at the top and all of elite prospects group way down

Very interesting read.

I note he said this about the Ottawa Senators: “The Senators were the kings of reaching in this draft according to my model, making up a full quarter of the top 20 value losses in the draft.”

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

That was a fun read actually but I'm not really sure what we can learn from it other than perhaps some teams are a little bit more inclined to stray from the consensus.

And I don't like the characterization of a player like Sanderson being one of the biggest reaches. He was definitely in a tier of players that could have gone 4-12 (or so). To say he's a bogger reach at 5 than Mukhamadullin at 20 seems out there to me. But it's a numerical model and he sticks to it rigidly. He also explains his methods and results with no clear bias or unnecessary interpretation.

It WILL be interesting to see how the perceived reachers will have done when the dust settles in 5 or 6 years. Same for the teams who got "steals".

Note these steels and reaches are comparing the consolidated list to what actually happened ,, a paper exercise based on ranking vs where they are taken. Not determining value based on how a player actually turns out.
Last year (2019) top 5 reaches (Seider, Broberg, Dach, Knight, Thomson) ; top 5 steals ( Krebs, Kaliyev, Caulfield, Dorofeyev, Brink)
The internet scouting community does not put the same emphasis on size as the NHL scouts imo.
Based on how those reaches are actually doing.. at least 4/5 don't look like very big reaches.
Krebs is a bit of an outlier because of an Achilles injury close to the draft.

 

[Masked]

And I don't like the characterization of a player like Sanderson being one of the biggest reaches. He was definitely in a tier of players that could have gone 4-12 (or so). To say he's a bigger reach at 5 than Mukhamadullin at 20 seems out there to me. But it's a numerical model and he sticks to it rigidly. He also explains his methods and results with no clear bias or unnecessary interpretation.

When you create a consolidated list, that treats everyone equally but includes garbage lists from people with hot takes for attention, and use that as a baseline, you're bound to have issues. Treating McKenzie's list, which is a consensus from real pro scouts, as an equal with some hot take guy looking for hits on his Youtube channel is nonsensical.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

When you create a consolidated list, that treats everyone equally but includes garbage lists from people with hot takes for attention, and use that as a baseline, you're bound to have issues. Treating McKenzie's list, which is a consensus from real pro scouts, as an equal with some hot take guy looking for hits on his Youtube channel is nonsensical.

I disagree, to a degree. It's like polling; sure you'll talk to some shitheads but stats (with enough of a sample) should smooth out that noise. After all there could be a dumbass out there who had Sanderson 1st on his list. Unlikely but people are generally dumb in both directions from the norm.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Note these steels and reaches are comparing the consolidated list to what actually happened ,, a paper exercise based on ranking vs where they are taken. Not determining value based on how a player actually turns out.
Last year (2019) top 5 reaches (Seider, Broberg, Dach, Knight, Thomson) ; top 5 steals ( Krebs, Kaliyev, Caulfield, Dorofeyev, Brink)
The internet scouting community does not put the same emphasis on size as the NHL scouts imo.
Based on how those reaches are actually doing.. at least 4/5 don't look like very big reaches.
Krebs is a bit of an outlier because of an Achilles injury close to the draft.

Oh, I know that they aren't actually calling players better than their draft position. It's purely numerical. It's not an opinion but a stats exercise so I don't really have a problem with it. But if Sanderson at 5 is one of the biggest "reaches" then I think there might be a fly in the statistical ointment. That's all I was getting at.

 

[mianjo]

No prospect playing today but tomorrow one of our US college guys starts his season, Luke Loheit with Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth. And on Wednesday the 4 North Dakota boys, Jacob Bernard-Docker , Shane Pinto, Jake Sanderson, and Tyler Kleven open their season, and on friday Angus Crookshank with U of New Hampshire begins his season.

 

[mianjo]

Weekly update of prospects stats

1.		Maxence Guénette (D)	Val-d'Or Foreurs	QMJHL	15	5	11	16	1.07	6	2
2.		Rudolfs Balcers (LW)	Stavanger Oilers	Norway	10	7	8	15	1.50	18	10
3.		Roby Järventie (LW)		totals	19	7	7	14	0.74	6	9
			Ilves	Liiga	19	7	7	14	0.74	6	9
4.		Philippe Daoust (C/LW)	Moncton Wildcats	QMJHL	13	4	9	13	1.00	12	-4
5.		Viktor Lodin (C/LW)	Timrå IK	HockeyAllsvenskan	14	4	5	9	0.64	10	5
6.		Vitali Abramov (LW/RW)	Jukurit	Liiga	8	5	2	7	0.88	2	-5
7.		Erik Brännström (D)	SCL Tigers	NL	9	2	5	7	0.78	4	3
8.		Mikael Wikstrand (D)	Ak Bars Kazan	KHL	18	1	4	5	0.28	4	-4
9.		Jonathan Davidsson (RW)	Västerviks IK	HockeyAllsvenskan	6	1	2	3	0.50	2	0
10.		Olle Alsing (D)	Graz99ers	ICEHL	9	0	3	3	0.33	2	1
11.		Todd Burgess (C/RW)	Minnesota State Univ. (Mankato)	NCAA	1	0	2	2	2.00	0	2
12.		Lassi Thomson (D)	Ilves	Liiga	18	0	2	2	0.11	4	0
13.		Filip Chlapík (C)	HC Sparta Praha	3	1	0	1	0.33	8	1
14.		Eric Engstrand (LW/RW)	Malmö Redhawks	SHL	13	1	0	1	0.08	2	-4

[TBODY]

Czech [/TBODY]

Goalies

1.		Filip Gustavsson	Södertälje SK	HockeyAllsvenskan	16	2.30	.922
2.		Leevi Meriläinen	Kärpät U20	U20 SM-sarja	14	2.07	.915

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Less than 10 games

1.		Mads Søgaard	Esbjerg Energy	Denmark	2	-	.913
2.		Leevi Meriläinen	Kärpät	Liiga	0	-	-

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ottawa Senators at eliteprospects.com

 

[ChurchOfAlfie]

Only 3 defensemen in the QMJHL have more points than Guenette this season. Lukas Cormier, and a pair of overagers.

 

[Xspyrit]

Interesting assessment of different 'draft ranking sources' in the table below:



It's linked to from Culmore's piece
2020 NHL Draft By The Numbers Part 1: Biggest Steals and Reaches, List Accuracy

I don't like the consolidated rankings way he does things but interesting to see which sources are closest to where people went. No surprise to see Bob at the top and all of elite prospects group way down

Bader, Ferrari and Scouch at the end? Surprising!

 

[Sens72]

I know it’s only such a small sample size but I would feel fairly confident in putting Guenette as a legitimate NHL prospect now. Maybe not a ‘very good’ middle pairing defenseman but definitely a guy who will be getting call-ups to the NHL within the next two years.

 

[Sens72]

Bader, Ferrari and Scouch at the end? Surprising!

I can respect people like Ferrari and Scouch even through their hot takes because I know quite a bit of their analysis still comes from actually watching prospects and not all data-based but that Bader guy.... woof. He posted a model projection the other day that had Olli Maatta having the same star probability as Erik Karlsson through their draft year to D+4 year. At that point I’m really questioning what’s going on there.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Bader, Ferrari and Scouch at the end? Surprising!

I mean. None of that is surprising. I get your sarcasm.

Guessing where players will go is not the same as guessing where they should go.

Im more interested in the list that sees what few others see. And who is right. Vs the list that just compiled who is likely to go where cuz they heard from nhl scouts. We will see in a few years

 

[R2010]

I disagree, to a degree. It's like polling; sure you'll talk to some shitheads but stats (with enough of a sample) should smooth out that noise. After all there could be a dumbass out there who had Sanderson 1st on his list. Unlikely but people are generally dumb in both directions from the norm.

There's a fair bit of evidence out there that excluding outliers improves predictive modelling so it depends on what he is trying to use it for. Once he moves into steals vs reaches then the flaw of having poor performers in comes into play.