News Article: 2020 - 2021 NHL, 56 games, Jan.13th target date.

[Frk It]

If the NHL decides to do the 24 team "playoff" format to recover revenue, we have a very slim chance to be #24, but it could happen...lots would have to go right for us, while the bottom 7 would need to collectively struggle.

I'm not pro-tank, but I'd rather finish bottom 3 to get that 1OA (finally)...the Hockey Gods owe us, or Bettman does.

Chicago had 72 pts last year and we had 39. Kirby Dach is poised to take a step forward. I think we look more competitive this year, but not sure it amounts to us being much higher in the standings. I suppose not having to play the whole league could help our cause a bit.

But we won’t even have Seider until the SHL is over, right? Then it could take him a bit to acclimate to the NHL. So our blue line should still be pretty brutal yet again.

I like the depth chart on the wing, but we are still pretty weak down the middle and on the back end. I don’t know... a lot would have to go right.

 

[Henkka]

This is my rank for the Division:

1. TBL - 0.640 (estimated points percentage, small regression, still the best team)
2. CAR - 0.620 (comes from very strong Metropolitan)
3. CBJ - 0.600 (comes from very strong Metropolitan)
4. NSH - 0.570 (will probably rebound after a coaching change which messed last season)
-------------------
5. MIN - 0.550 (comes from strong division, everybody is expecting a regression, but not too fast.)
------------------
6.-7. FLO - 0.500 (lost some key players and comes from easy division)
6.-7. CHI - 0.500 (maybe better team with easier opponents, but man those goalies are crap compared to Crawford/Lehner)
8. DET - 0.400 (we will be better, but not enough)

Top4 goes to playoffs, Minnesota as bubble/wildcard playoff team. If Chicago goalies (Malcolm Subban + Collin Delia) are good, then they have a possibility for playoffs. But I'm sceptical. That defence is stil crap and goalies have to stand on their head.

BTW, what is the playoff system?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

This is my rank for the Division:

1. TBL - 0.640 (estimated points percentage, small regression, still the best team)
2. CAR - 0.620 (comes from very strong Metropolitan)
3. CBJ - 0.600 (comes from very strong Metropolitan)
4. NSH - 0.570 (will probably rebound after a coaching change which messed last season)
-------------------
5. MIN - 0.550 (comes from strong division, everybody is expecting a regression, but not too fast.)
------------------
6.-7. FLO - 0.500 (lost some key players and comes from easy division)
6.-7. CHI - 0.500 (maybe better team with easier opponents, but man those goalies are crap compared to Crawford/Lehner)
8. DET - 0.400 (we will be better, but not enough)

Top4 goes to playoffs, Minnesota as bubble/wildcard playoff team.

BTW, what is the playoff system?

They haven't announced any playoff format that I know of, I suspect they'll likely change it at least 1x after the initial announcement.

Minn as WC/#5 ? Wow, interesting. Their top 4 D are very good & will have to be great nightly to shield Talbot & Stalock...but that F group is garbage, save for Fiala, Kaprizov, an aging Parise & rookie Rossi. Their F's are gonna be caved in their own zone, worst group I've seen since I can remember. (Even Z/Larkin/Mantha/Bert) wasn't that bad.

 

[Henkka]

They haven't announced any playoff format that I kn0w of, I suspect they'll likely change it at least 1x after the initial announcement.

Minn as WC/#5 ? Wow, interesting. Their top 4 D are very good & will have to be great nightly to shield Talbot & Stalock...but that F group is garbage, save for Fiala, Kaprizov, an aging Parise & rookie Rossi. Their F's are gonna be caved in their own zone, worst group I've seen since I can remember. (Even Z/Larkin/Mantha/Bert) wasn't that bad.

Minnesota is always supposed to be bad, and then they come and put up that 0.550 season (NHl average).

Not really much a change. Top4 will carry the tean. Just suffling forwards. Bonino will come in to be a better "koivu". Kaprizov is huge upgrade. Almost rookie-Panarin level guy from KHL. Staal for Johansson is a small downgrade. Dubnyk was horrible goalie sent away. Could be that Kähkönen comes and takes the starting role. He is a real winner.

The big picture is, that good things will happen for Metro and Central teams, when they will enter to easier divisions. It will be laughable funny. People don't understand how good some "mediocre" (read: Central or Metro) teams are, when they won't have to face strong teams every night. And vise versa, teams at easy division who have been great, because there has been no competition. Vegas has had maybe the easiest Division and not dominating that ever. Toronto is gonna have a gift win for that Canadian Division, because there's nothing like Boston or Tampa against them. Will win it easily and then have sure playoff failure, when the first team from stronger division (any division except Canadian) comes against them.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Minnesota is always supposed to be bad, and then they come and put up that 0.550 season (NHl average).

Not really much a change. Top4 will carry the tean. Just suffling forwards. Bonino will come in to be a better "koivu". Kaprizov is huge upgrade. Almost rookie-Panarin level guy from KHL. Staal for Johansson is a small downgrade. Dubnyk was horrible goalie sent away. Could be that Kähkönen comes and takes the starting role. He is a real winner.

The big picture is, that good things will happen for Metro and Central teams, when they will enter to easier divisions. It will be laughable funny. People don't understand how good some "mediocre" (read: Central or Metro) teams are, when they won't have to face strong teams every night. And vise versa, teams at easy division who have been great, because there has been no competition. Vegas has had maybe the easiest Division and not dominating that ever. Toronto is gonna have a gift win for that Canadian Division, because there's nothing like Boston or Tampa against them. Will win it easily and then have sure playoff failure, when the first team from stronger division (any division except Canadian) comes against them.

We'll see who's guesstimate is closer, only time will tell. Their C's are either 3rd or 4th Liners. Like DobberHockey suggested, I'd like to see the Karpizov-Rossi-Fiala rookie F line, even if it is short-lived. Beyond that, Parise is 36, injury prone & has 1 good season in the last 5. (only 5 yrs left on that contract ). Remember, they lost Zucker & Galchenyuk etc, decent depth players.

As far as Kaprizov, too many rookies are highly touted til they actually play an NHL season (looking at you Jack Hughes, Kappa Kakko) as the most recent examples. KK had in D+1 similar stats to Rasmussen in D+2 & many opposing fans & some Wings fans are ready to write Ras off as a bust/3rd liner/4th line plug/Brian Boyle clone. It's too early to make that assessment for either. It's also way, way, way too early to call "Kaprizov the next Patrick Kane".

GM's get overly excited (shiny new toy syndrome), international media & the beat reporters take that & run, fans get way too excited (we're all guilty from time to time) & then Boom! Plop-plop, fizz-fizz, Oh, what relief it is, the rookie plays his 1st season & has a Joe Thornton rookie year or slightly better. Happens every year, some even move 2 steps back to try to take 1 forward again (Cholo).

 

[roman star]

rasmussen - larkin - zadina
bertuzzi - fabbri - mantha

 

[Henkka]

We'll see who's guesstimate is closer, only time will tell. Their C's are either 3rd or 4th Liners. Like DobberHockey suggested, I'd like to see the Karpizov-Rossi-Fiala rookie F line, even if it is short-lived. Beyond that, Parise is 36, injury prone & has 1 good season in the last 5. (only 5 yrs left on that contract ).

Parise is 36, has had bad 4/5 seasons, and Minnesota has been good all those year besides of that. That's so flawed analyze as anything.

Biggest mistake is to look on the offence, when the most important particle on that team is the Top4 defence. Same as always, and in their prime.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Parise is 36, has had bad 4/5 seasons, and Minnesota has been good all those year besides of that. That's so flawed analyze as anything.

Biggest mistake is to look on the offence, when the most important particle on that team is the Top4 defence. Same as always, and in their prime.

Ummhh, it's "bad" to look at only D. Yet you're suggesting to only look at D...Now that's your "flawed analysis", not mine.

GM's/coaches look at both D&F, as they are virtually equally important. G is so hit or miss, even when a team has a good goalie, yet it's considered the most important position in hockey.

Does that make sense to you?

 

[Henkka]

Estimation	Pts
1	TOR	0,616	68
2	WPG	0,607	67
3	CGY	0,589	65
4	EDM	0,571	63
5	VAN	0,563	62
6	MTL	0,527	58
7	OTT	0,437	50

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Canadian Division.

No one is expecting Winnipeg to be that good. But I am.

Because it's the only team which comes from the battleground Central division. Their cualcomp has been much harder than these weak others. Other 6 Canadian come from baby-butter weak divisions, Atlantic bottom crap or Pacific.

 

[Henkka]

Pos	Eastern	1-year	Changes	Old Division	Estimate	Pts
1	WSH	0,652	0	Strong	0,652	70
2	BOS	0,714	Negative	Easy	0,616	66
3	NYI	0,588	0	Strong	0,607	65
4	PIT	0,623	-Hornquist	Strong	0,571	64
5	PHI	0,645	-Niskanen	Strong	0,563	63
6	NYR	0,564	Positive	Strong	0,545	61
7	BUF	0,493	Positive	Easy	0,464	52
8	NJD	0,464	0	Strong	0,429	48

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is the strongest Division of all.

 

[Henkka]

Pos	Western	1-year	Changes	Old Division	Estimate	Pts
1	COL	0,657	Positive	Strong	0,688	77
2	STL	0,662	Negative	Strong	0,616	69
3	DAL	0,594	0	Strong	0,607	68
4	VGK	0,606	0	Easy	0,598	67
5	SJS	0,450	Rebound	Easy	0,527	59
6	ARI	0,529	Negative	Easy	0,518	58
7	ANA	0,472	0	Easy	0,455	51
8	LAK	0,457	0	Easy	0,438	49

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Colorado will run to easy President's Trophy.

 

[Henkka]

Pos	Central	2y-Pts%	Changes	Old Division	Estimation	Pts
1	TBL	0,657	Negative	Easy	0,652	73
2	CAR	0,600	0	Strong	0,616	69
3	CBJ	0,589	0	Strong	0,607	68
4	NSH	0,589	Rebound	Strong	0,580	65
5	MIN	0,530	0	Strong	0,545	61
6	FLO	0,543	Negative	Easy	0,518	58
7	CHI	0,513	Goalies?	Strong	0,509	57
8	DET	0,369	Positive	Easy	0,420	47

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Final estimatations.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Pos	Central	2y-Pts%	Changes	Old Division	Estimation	Pts
1	TBL	0,657	Negative	Easy	0,652	73
2	CAR	0,600	0	Strong	0,616	69
3	CBJ	0,589	0	Strong	0,607	68
4	NSH	0,589	Rebound	Strong	0,580	65
5	MIN	0,530	0	Strong	0,545	61
6	FLO	0,543	Negative	Easy	0,518	58
7	CHI	0,513	Goalies?	Strong	0,509	57
8	DET	0,369	Positive	Easy	0,420	47

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Final estimatations.

So why 2yr. Pts% for the Central, but only 1yr for the others?

Also, whose estimations are these? Yours?

 

[TCNorthstars]

As far as Kaprizov, too many rookies are highly touted til they actually play an NHL season (looking at you Jack Hughes, Kappa Kakko) as the most recent examples. KK had in D+1 similar stats to Rasmussen in D+2 & many opposing fans & some Wings fans are ready to write Ras off as a bust/3rd liner/4th line plug/Brian Boyle clone. It's too early to make that assessment for either. It's also way, way, way too early to call "Kaprizov the next Patrick Kane".

Big difference between being a 18/19 year old rookie and being a 23 year old coming off of 6 professional seasons in one of the top leagues in the world.

 

[RedWingzz]

Have they announced yet if the 3 American divisions will solely play teams within their division for the entirety of the season (like the Canadian division is doing) or will the 3 American divisions have games against the other American divisions?

I haven't heard this yet, but I would assume we'd be playing the other divisions, I just haven't heard any details to this. Maybe they have yet to make the announcement, or maybe I missed it.

 

[GMR]

So the Canadian teams will play each opponent 9 times? Two other opponents 10 times? A return to the days of the Original-Six?

 

[19 for president]

If they want to do this without it becoming a scheduling mess, they'll stick to teams just playing in their divisions. That way if there are covid cancellations it'll be easier to re-schedule.

 

[Henkka]

So the Canadian teams will play each opponent 9 times? Two other opponents 10 times? A return to the days of the Original-Six?

Pretty much. 8 games at other Divisions.

 

[FMichael]

So the Canadian teams will play each opponent 9 times? Two other opponents 10 times? A return to the days of the Original-Six?

'Battle of Alberta'!

 

[GreatGordie9]

St Louis should be in the same division as Detroit.

 

[Sparty]

It sounds like divisions that were previously reported are being shuffled.

I think you change these two like so to make it more competitively balanced.

Midwest
Detroit
Columbus
Nashville
Carolina
Chicago
St Louis
Colorado
Minnesota

South
Tampa
Florida
Dallas
Arizona
Vegas
Los Angeles
Anaheim
San Jose

 

[MBH]

I think we're facing a tougher division next year.
So we lose: Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Buffalo
And we gain: Nashville, Minnesota, Carolina, Columbus, Chicago
Comparing them
Boston 100 points vs Carolina 81 points: - 19 points
Toronto 81 points vs Columbus 81 points: Even
Montreal 71 points vs Nashville 78 points: + 7 points
Buffalo 68 points vs Minnesota 77 points: +9 points
Ottawa 62 points vs Chicago 72 points: +10 points
--
So, our new teams were, in total, seven points better.
Average of 1.2 points/team.
But honestly? I think they're even better.
I think those teams coming in from Central played in the most unforgiving division in the league.
With Boston leaving, there's one less elite team to face (though the clock's got to be ticking on their era). On the other hand, we're losing 3 pretty creampuff teams in Montreal, Buffalo and Ottawa.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I think we're facing a tougher division next year.
So we lose: Ottawa, Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Buffalo
And we gain: Nashville, Minnesota, Carolina, Columbus, Chicago
Comparing them
Boston 100 points vs Carolina 81 points: - 19 points
Toronto 81 points vs Columbus 81 points: Even
Montreal 71 points vs Nashville 78 points: + 7 points
Buffalo 68 points vs Minnesota 77 points: +9 points
Ottawa 62 points vs Chicago 72 points: +10 points
--
So, our new teams were, in total, seven points better.
Average of 1.2 points/team.
But honestly? I think they're even better.
I think those teams coming in from Central played in the most unforgiving division in the league.
With Boston leaving, there's one less elite team to face (though the clock's got to be ticking on their era). On the other hand, we're losing 3 pretty creampuff teams in Montreal, Buffalo and Ottawa.

You gotta factor in the +/- (improvements vs. detractions).

Bos - vs. Car even/slight - (Vatanen/Williams)
Tor + vs. Cbj even/slight+
Mtl slight + vs. Nsh -
Buf + vs. Minn -
Ott + vs. Chi -

then factor in age, strength of schedule etc.

 

[Henkka]

Some adjusted point percentages from old Divisions and putting them to new Divisions:

Metropolitan - 0.5753
Central - 0.5751
Atlantic - 0.5433
Pacific - 0.5301

New Metro - 0.573
New Central - 0.557
West - 0.552
Canada - 0.542

Balance is better, when Pacific isn't so worthless anymore thanks to COL, STL, DAL there.

 

[GettingYourMoms]

There is only chance for us to be above CHI, if Zadina goes full Kucherov and Debrincat with Kubalik goes full Pulkinnen.