2019 Roster and Fantasy GM Thread IV

[racerjoe]

Like, scouting is analytics. Or, rather, it can be. Observational data, is what I like to call it.

It's so frustrating to repeatly hear people talk about how so and so has "good analytics." this is basically not a phrase you would ever hear in any other context.

While I am sure you are correct, the issue is it has become a common phrase with meaning. It now does have meaning even if it shouldn't.

In a weird way it is like calling something a Zamboni or Kleenex. We very often butcher our language.

 

[Melvin]

While I am sure you are correct, the issue is it has become a common phrase with meaning. It now does have meaning even if it shouldn't.

In a weird way it is like calling something a Zamboni or Kleenex. We very often butcher our language.

It really isn't, though. It is taking something that has a very broad general meaning and giving it a very narrow and limiting definition.

It would be like if, in hockey and only in hockey, the word "team" actually only refers to the coach. So when we say Tampa has a good team, we just mean they have a good coach, even though the word team is already well defined and applies to a much broader group than just the coach in every other sport and company.

 

[racerjoe]

It really isn't, though. It is taking something that has a very broad general meaning and giving it a very narrow and limiting definition.

It would be like if, in hockey and only in hockey, the word "team" actually only refers to the coach. So when we say Tampa has a good team, we just mean they have a good coach, even though the word team is already well defined and applies to a much broader group than just the coach in every other sport and company.

I won't argue with you on the meaning, that was never my intent. Just that we screw up our language all the time.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Like, scouting is analytics. Or, rather, it can be. Observational data, is what I like to call it.

It's so frustrating to repeatly hear people talk about how so and so has "good analytics." this is basically not a phrase you would ever hear in any other context.

From Wikipedia
"Analytics is the discovery, interpretation, and communication of meaningful patterns in data"

Interpretation is what gets completely skewed, when people talk stats. "Player A is a good player because he has good Corsi" is a flawed statement. Why does he have a good Corsi? What does he do to get a good Corsi? Those are huge questions that us fans forget when looking at all the stats. Corsi is the big "Fancy stat" so I'm using that as the example.

 

[Melvin]

From Wikipedia
"Analytics is the discovery, interpretation, and communication of meaningful patterns in data"

Interpretation is what gets completely skewed, when people talk stats. "Player A is a good player because he has good Corsi" is a flawed statement. Why does he have a good Corsi? What does he do to get a good Corsi? Those are huge questions that us fans forget when looking at all the stats. Corsi is the big "Fancy stat" so I'm using that as the example.

Corsi isn't even fancy. It's just f***ing shot attempts.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Corsi isn't even fancy. It's just ****ing shot attempts.

It was one of the first stats to go past shots, +/-, etc. Therefore lots of people consider it a "Fancy stat".

You can look at Corsi is multiple ways too. You can use it as a +/- stat, a relative stat to teammates, you can just look at Corsi attempts for or against.

I look at Corsi as a starting point and then die deeper with zone starts, entries, scoring chances, etc. Even then, you still need to watch the player.

 

[Fire Benning]

I still like Jan Rutta as a low risk bargain option for the D corps.

 

[iceburg]

But it wasn't like they were in danger of losing him for nothing as you posted.

Sure it was. Maybe a little less likely by delaying a year. Question is would delaying a trade likely to land them a better return. I think not. By everyone knowing he wanted out, the asset was damaged. The longer they waited, the more damage.

 

[iceburg]

Corsi isn't even fancy. It's just ****ing shot attempts.

I love this post. I have been wondering why this is such a worshipped fancy stat. And you just said it all.

 

[rypper]

Sure it was. Maybe a little less likely by delaying a year. Question is would delaying a trade likely to land them a better return. I think not. By everyone knowing he wanted out, the asset was damaged. The longer they waited, the more damage.

If Kesler wanted out as bad as he did and the team held out for a better return, I would think that player would eventually broaden his list of teams willing to be traded to.

The Canucks had the power, but they gave it up to get rid of a problem easier.

 

[iceburg]

If Kesler wanted out as bad as he did and the team held out for a better return, I would think that player would eventually broaden his list of teams willing to be traded to.

The Canucks had the power, but they gave it up to get rid of a problem easier.

Or he could have waited a year and chosen any team he wanted...

 

[rypper]

Or he could have waited a year and chosen any team he wanted...

2 years. They had the entire 14/15 season and then up until the 15/16 trade deadline before they had to make a move. That's a long time for Kesler to sit and stew on a team he doesn't want to be on.

If he wanted out as bad as he did I think he caves first.

Hell even if they waited until the 15/16 TDL and moved him out (I don' think they'd risk waiting that long) they could have traded him to any playoff team (because that's what he ultimately wanted) then he's UFA and gets to pick where he goes.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

I love this post. I have been wondering why this is such a worshipped fancy stat. And you just said it all.

In terms of the easily available data to the public, Corsi is able to show us a rough idea on who is creating offense (shot attempts for) and who is playing too much defense (shot attempts against). But like I said in my last post it's only the begining of what you should be using to evaluate a player.

 

[ginner classic]

Do you have other RHD options the Canucks could realistically target?

I do....

Luke Schenn - I'd give him two or three years at 1.1 and not bat an eye. Worst case you have a rock for Utica. Best case...he's in your top 8 for the next three years and everyone is better for it.

Cheap Nick Jensen clone - Roland McKeown - I cannot think of a more painfully obvious player to acquire. He is now subject to waivers. He is buried on their depth chart. He skates well and defends well. Hockey IQ is pretty good. Cheap easy Tanev replacement.

Realistic B prospect - Cal Foote - Yes Tampa needs D. Yes they need cheap players. But they are in the window. If we retain on Tanev and take Callahan, are we not getting close on a player near the bottom of the top 100 prospects list?

Swing for the fences - Noah Dobson - Bode Wilde's emergence, a pretty good year from Pulock and a dire need for scoring makes me think there is a parallel universe where our 10th overall and Hutton get a deal done. Don't @ me.

Swing for the fences part II - Karlsson - I would cap max offer him on a 2 year deal at 15.5 M per. I have a special place in my brain where these kinds of fantasies are realistic.

Swing for the fences part III - P.K. Subban - Salary and a bad year makes him a buy low candidate. How low? Dunno.

Not interested:
Liljegren
Honka
Ceci
Tyler Myers

Maybe if you buy me drinks first:
Severson
Ristolainen
Larsson

Maybe if we buy them drinks first
Trouba

 

[VC]

Corsi in itself may not be fancy but it was the start for the general public in non traditional stats and thus labeled as 'fancy stats'.

 

[Hockeyphysio]

Corsi isn't even fancy. It's just ****ing shot attempts.

Its pretty funny. I counted how many shots the guy was on the ice for and against....fancy. I really don't understand what people were doing before if that is considered fancy. I guess they just going " Hey look Gudbranson there is a big boy, looks mean. Must be a good player".

Reminds me of all these surgeries we see. Meniscus is torn has to come out, when nobody until fairly recently actually checked to see if its makes peoples lives better. Hell, some of the cancer treatments they are still giving people won't make them live longer (on average). Sorry for the rant, frustrated medical professional over here.

 

[WTG]

Its pretty funny. I counted how many shots the guy was on the ice for and against....fancy. I really don't understand what people were doing before if that is considered fancy. I guess they just going " Hey look Gudbranson there is a big boy, looks mean. Must be a good player".

Reminds me of all these surgeries we see. Meniscus is torn has to come out, when nobody until fairly recently actually checked to see if its makes peoples lives better. Hell, some of the cancer treatments they are still giving people won't make them live longer (on average). Sorry for the rant, frustrated medical professional over here.

Want to buy my essential oils?

 

[iceburg]

In terms of the easily available data to the public, Corsi is able to show us a rough idea on who is creating offense (shot attempts for) and who is playing too much defense (shot attempts against). But like I said in my last post it's only the begining of what you should be using to evaluate a player.

I think the highlighted is the key.

 

[iceburg]

If Kesler wanted out as bad as he did and the team held out for a better return, I would think that player would eventually broaden his list of teams willing to be traded to.

The Canucks had the power, but they gave it up to get rid of a problem easier.

And the longer a disgruntled player hangs around, the lower their value.

 

[rypper]

And the longer a disgruntled player hangs around, the lower their value.

That's debatable.

 

[Hockeyphysio]

Wonder what Toronto would give us to take Marleau

 

[elitepete]

Wonder what Toronto would give us to take Marleau

I’d take him if they attached a 2nd or even 3rd. Marleau is a good player and would be an actual good mentor, unlike turds such as Eriksson, RealGud, Sutter, Prust, Miller, etc.

 

[member 290103]

Wonder what Toronto would give us to take Marleau

Benning only makes hockey trades. So if he pursues Marleau it's not for what else Toronto would give him, it's because he thinks Marleau will help the team compete.

Seriously, this kind of stupid rationale is what we have to resolve ourselves as being the case, UNTIL Benning gets a new boss or gets gone.

 

[Hockeyphysio]

I’d take him if they attached a 2nd or even 3rd. Marleau is a good player and would be an actual good mentor, unlike turds such as Eriksson, RealGud, Sutter, Prust, Miller, etc.

Yea i would for sure think about it. I wonder if it could be part of bigger trade as well.

Of course this is all very unlikely as the poster above said we have Benning

 

[TruGr1t]

Wonder what Toronto would give us to take Marleau

Give them a cheap spare part (Goldobin?) for Marleau + whatever draft picks you can get. Then trade Sutter somewhere.