Prospect Info: 2019 Prospects

[4Twenty]

I just laugh everytime people rag on Gaunce. If he wasn't a major junior prospect and was an NCAA prospect he'd never have gotten into so many NHL games at age 21-22 which obviously has clouded peoples ability to make a rational level headed projection.

Think of it this way, you have people suggesting 28 year old Tim Schaller is a better player, which frankly is ridiculous, but when Gaunce was able to compete in the NHL at 21/22 Schaller wasn't even a half ppg NCAA player.

Gaunce is 24. When Schaller was 24 he was nowhere near close to the player. Same goes with a guy like Jay Beagle, at 25 Jay Beagle had 14 points in 34 AHL games. Some people just don't want Gaunce to make it and it's very clear why.

While I'm here, I thought I'd also add this:

Many people on this forum have made it clear they've run out of patience for a player like Goldobin, but many of these same people continue to toot the horn of a player like Johnathan Dahlen.

21 year old season so far for Dahlen: 0.58ppg

Goldobin 21 yr old season in AHL: 0.89ppg

Hunter Shinkaruk 21 year old season: 0.87ppg

And that's just the surface, none of the other two players I'm comparing Dahlen to were as dependent on PP production.

Dahlen: 0.24 EV ppg

Goldobin: 0.48 EV ppg

Shinkaruk: 0.56 EV ppg

 

[alternate]

Lol, nobody "wants" Gaunce to not make it. Some just feel his footspeed and inability to produce at even a replacement player level in the NHL so far is what Gaunce is.

In fact, if anything I'd say there's a very clear reason why the usual suspects are hanging on to hope for Gaunce. There are certainly other first rounders on this team -- albeit higher picks -- that haven't been given nearly the same patience that Gaunce has received.

Personally, I'm happy Gaunce is continuing to develop. He's become at the least an important piece for Utica, and there is value in that. Not an ideal return for a1st round pick, but still provides utility to the organisation helping develop newer prospects, and depth in case of injuries. He's solid in his own end, physical on the puck and along the wall, and imo his offensive woes weren't necessarily indicative of his offensive potential. But on the other hand, his acceleration and agility so far just don't let him play the 200ft puck pressure style Green wants.

I don't know if he'll ever be an NHL regular. I wouldn't bet on it. But I appreciate the value he does bring to this organization, and if he can gain a step and cement a 4th line spot, then great. Guaranteed there's no one hoping against this, even if there might be a few who have closed the book on Gaunce as an NHL prospect.

 

[4Twenty]

I think a lot of the "analysis" on Gaunce tends to weight his 21/22 year old seasons on very bad teams and miniscule minutes way too strongly.

Inability to produce is weird, last year in 37 games he had 4 goals and 2 assists.

Jay Beagle has a 4 year deal for $3m per and he has 2 goals and 6 assists in 36 games.

One was 23, the other is 33.

Compare his numbers last season to Sutter's this season - identical stat line, albeit Gaunce played ~10 more games, both in heavy DZ usuage, yet Sutter has a huge negative goal differential, Gaunce broke even.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

I think a lot of the "analysis" on Gaunce tends to weight his 21/22 year old seasons on very bad teams and miniscule minutes way too strongly.

Inability to produce is weird, last year in 37 games he had 4 goals and 2 assists.

Jay Beagle has a 4 year deal for $3m per and he has 2 goals and 6 assists in 36 games.

One was 23, the other is 33.

Compare his numbers last season to Sutter's this season - identical stat line, albeit Gaunce played ~10 more games, both in heavy DZ usuage, yet Sutter has a huge negative goal differential, Gaunce broke even.

I think people struggle with big bodies who don’t have any nastiness in their game. He also has kind a lumbering feel moving around the ice.

He’s effective in a bottom 6 role, even before any improvements made this yr, that’s not disputable. Maybe he’s poor on the pk (i have no idea) and green doesn’t value a 3/4th liner who doesn’t contribute to special teams?

Calling schaller a better player could only have been some odd schtick.

 

[Yultron]

Dahlen is a far, far worse skater than those guys. Like n

Dahlen is a far, far worse skater than those guys. Like not even close.

Well we are all entitled to our optinions and I respect yours

 

[Yultron]

It's not the ice that's holding him back it's nerve. He still will not vigorously engage in any board battles or even avoids mid ice contact. His idea of a fore check, back check, or playing his man in the D-zone is to poke or wave his stick on the ice a couple feet away from the guy. He will kind of bump into a board battle if one of his guys is also in on it and doing the most physical work. Again his assists are when he is all alone and has the time to see the ice most often on a PP or odd man rushes when no one can come at him. He will now go one on one vs a defender, but does not try to beat him , but just shoots around him. He charges the net in the same kind of situations again usually on the PP. Green will not deal with his timidity no matter how he tries to disguise it.

I am all in on this guy making it in the NHL as I am with any player who dons a Comets jersey, but I also see the flaws that will hinder any player's process and sadly those that show the talent just isn't there. Dahlen has the innate talent, but his will to fix what holds him back is only slowly evolving. The hit that caused his concussion has hindered his will to get involved. He can't have a career playing on the perimeter and fringes of the action. He either learns how to avoid physicality while in tight situations and how to navigate through traffic or he's not going to make it. He can only play top 6 and that will get him the toughest matchups.

You have a very good point and yeah he has definitely shied away from the physical aspect of his game since the concussion and he is going to have to get physical if he wants to succeed in the NHL no doubt

 

[lush]

I always figured Gaunce would be on the Canucks but only for a few seasons and obviously at his peak which is still a ways away. The Jay Beagle comparison is perfect.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

I always figured Gaunce would be on the Canucks but only for a few seasons and obviously at his peak which is still a ways away. The Jay Beagle comparison is perfect.

Jay Beagle way constantly improving and doing everything possible to make it. Gaunce was the 2nd player picked in the ohl draft and does not see point of racing around rather conserve energy.

 

[ChilliBilly]

I think Gaunce has a place. A cerebral player with no exceptional skills, who tends to coast, in fact the opposite of an energy player. But manages some parts of the game well. Have no idea if he will step up a little (which he needs to have a spot in the NHL) or just stagnates. Hope he proceeds.

We have a bunch of guys (forwards) who seem not that far off of NHL service. Dahlen, Lind, to some extent Goldobin, Madden, Lockwood, and in particular Gaudette.

We have a bunch of borderline deadwood, such as Granlund, Goldobin (he makes both lists) Schaller, Leivo, and a bunch of overpaid players .... Bear cheese, sutter (perhaps unfair since salaries have increased) Eriksson (just massively overpaid), and a few others.

 

[iceburg]

I think Gaunce has a place. A cerebral player with no exceptional skills, who tends to coast, in fact the opposite of an energy player. But manages some parts of the game well. Have no idea if he will step up a little (which he needs to have a spot in the NHL) or just stagnates. Hope he proceeds.

We have a bunch of guys (forwards) who seem not that far off of NHL service. Dahlen, Lind, to some extent Goldobin, Madden, Lockwood, and in particular Gaudette.

We have a bunch of borderline deadwood, such as Granlund, Goldobin (he makes both lists) Schaller, Leivo, and a bunch of overpaid players .... Bear cheese, sutter (perhaps unfair since salaries have increased) Eriksson (just massively overpaid), and a few others.

As I've said before his 6 point production in his first 96 games was very damaging to his career. He got put in a box that's labelled "can't produce offense at the NHL level". It doesn't seem to matter now that he has demonstrated he is a good scorer at the AHL level, his NHL point production has improved to, at very least, 4th line scoring levels in the NHL in the last 21 games over 2 years (basically the same rate as Brandon Sutter this year in his 26 games), nor that his skating has already improved. The question isn't whether he can be effective at the NHL (he can) it's whether he will ever be given a chance. I wonder whether he needs an organization change in order to get that chance.

 

[Soups On]

Gaunce deserves to be in over the likes of someone like Granlund who is a worse skater, worse defensively, loses all his matchups, and STILL gets an outrageous amount of opportunities.

 

[4Twenty]

While I'm here, I thought I'd also add this:

Many people on this forum have made it clear they've run out of patience for a player like Goldobin, but many of these same people continue to toot the horn of a player like Johnathan Dahlen.

21 year old season so far for Dahlen: 0.58ppg

Goldobin 21 yr old season in AHL: 0.89ppg

Hunter Shinkaruk 21 year old season: 0.87ppg

And that's just the surface, none of the other two players I'm comparing Dahlen to were as dependent on PP production.

Dahlen: 0.24 EV ppg

Goldobin: 0.48 EV ppg

Shinkaruk: 0.56 EV ppg

I guess I shouldn't have added this part to the Gaunce conversation because it's been glossed over. I thought I'd post it again, because I think it;s worthy of discussion.

 

[tyhee]

I guess I shouldn't have added this part to the Gaunce conversation because it's been glossed over. I thought I'd post it again, because I think it;s worthy of discussion.

I think the reason you didn't see much discussion about the point isn't that we didn't see it but because your point is so clear there's little to add. In addition to the scoring stats you mentioned, what we've see about Dahlen from Utica posters has not been encouraging.

 

[DonnyNucker]

It’s great how Gaunce is our most talked about 2019 prospect. All hail Gaunce

 

[Soups On]

It’s great how Gaunce is our most talked about 2019 prospect. All hail Gaunce

He isn't. But maybe there's a lot of talk because he deserves to be on the Canucks and not Utica? Best player there and his skating has improved, which is the biggest concern for many critics.

 

[Southern_Canuck]

Tue Feb 19

OHL

Sarnia 2 Sault Ste. Marie 6
Eliot 2 assists, -3

S_C

 

[RobsonStreet]

Gaunce is probably the best skater in Utica right now and is getting 1-2 breakaways/breaks down the wing around the defender in every game.

His skating has improved *a ton* and he’s a better skater than guys like Schaller and Granlund and just comically better by a ridiculous margin than Schaller at every aspect of playing hockey.

It’s the Taylor Pyatt effect. He doesn’t play like his body type suggests he “should” and more importantly, he doesn’t look like he’s expending a lot of effort on the ice. If he was 5’8” and had an effortful skating stride people would say he’s a spark-plug or energy guy. Instead he’s lazy and soft.

He’s the polar opposite of a player like Motte, who looks like he’s giving maximum effort but is not effective.

 

[iceburg]

I honestly don't understand why Gaunce isn't on the roster over Schaller and Granlund especially. It makes no sense. I bet he's now on the radar of a few pro scouts and could be lost on waivers next fall.

 

[Southern_Canuck]

Thu Feb 21

OHL

Kitchener 2 Niagara 10
Brassard 2 assists, +1

S_C

 

[DownGoesMcDavid]

I honestly don't understand why Gaunce isn't on the roster over Schaller and Granlund especially. It makes no sense. I bet he's now on the radar of a few pro scouts and could be lost on waivers next fall.

That board pass in between his legs for the 2nd assist on Horvats goal is why Granlund plays over Gaunce. Granlund also has a track record of 19 goal year.

Dont think Granlund is anything special but he is better and more proven than Gaunce. He like Gaunce also plays C and W and kills penalties.

Schaller sucks. He's. a press box body. Gaunce doesn't need to be that role

 

[Snatcher Demko]

That Gaunce stays down while the likes of Eriksson and Granlund play is vomit inducing.

 

[MS]

That board pass in between his legs for the 2nd assist on Horvats goal is why Granlund plays over Gaunce. Granlund also has a track record of 19 goal year.

Dont think Granlund is anything special but he is better and more proven than Gaunce. He like Gaunce also plays C and W and kills penalties.

Schaller sucks. He's. a press box body. Gaunce doesn't need to be that role

Granlund had 3 assists in his last 40 games before that play while playing 16 minutes/game.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

As I've said before his 6 point production in his first 96 games was very damaging to his career. He got put in a box that's labelled "can't produce offense at the NHL level". It doesn't seem to matter now that he has demonstrated he is a good scorer at the AHL level, his NHL point production has improved to, at very least, 4th line scoring levels in the NHL in the last 21 games over 2 years (basically the same rate as Brandon Sutter this year in his 26 games), nor that his skating has already improved. The question isn't whether he can be effective at the NHL (he can) it's whether he will ever be given a chance. I wonder whether he needs an organization change in order to get that chance.

First impression is everything to some people. He wasn't ready for the NHL when he first played for the Canucks, and people hold on to that image and never re-evaluate.
Also he lacks that one stand out trait that people can identify. Some guys skate fast so he appears to be working hard. Some guys hit hard so he appears to be gritty. Some guys are good on faceoff so he gets labelled as a defensive specialist. Some guys has a big shot so people thinks theres offensive potential. Some guys just have a famous last name and its just assumed they are foundational players. Gaunce has none of those traits, so it appears he does nothing out there. However he plays tough matchups and come up even, despite the fact he doesn't generate much offense. That shows hockey smart, which is not so easily observable.

 

[DownGoesMcDavid]

First impression is everything to some people. He wasn't ready for the NHL when he first played for the Canucks, and people hold on to that image and never re-evaluate.
Also he lacks that one stand out trait that people can identify. Some guys skate fast so he appears to be working hard. Some guys hit hard so he appears to be gritty. Some guys are good on faceoff so he gets labelled as a defensive specialist. Some guys has a big shot so people thinks theres offensive potential. Some guys just have a famous last name and its just assumed they are foundational players. Gaunce has none of those traits, so it appears he does nothing out there. However he plays tough matchups and come up even, despite the fact he doesn't generate much offense. That shows hockey smart, which is not so easily observable.

So he is non of those 10 traits but he has defensive awareness so he should make the team?

He has been given plenty of opportunity with the big club during games and training camp and he hasn't taken the bull by the horn.

He's also had plenty of time to work on those traits so he can improve his skating, energy, shot Etc and he hasn't. He has stayed the same.

Young guns like Gaudette has surpassed him and has forced the coaching staff and management team to play him in the big club.

Gaunce, Granlund , Schaller etc all suck and there isn't room for them on the team once we are competitive so who really cares.

 

[4Twenty]

So he is non of those 10 traits but he has defensive awareness so he should make the team?

He has been given plenty of opportunity with the big club during games and training camp and he hasn't taken the bull by the horn.

He's also had plenty of time to work on those traits so he can improve his skating, energy, shot Etc and he hasn't. He has stayed the same.

Young guns like Gaudette has surpassed him and has forced the coaching staff and management team to play him in the big club.

Gaunce, Granlund , Schaller etc all suck and there isn't room for them on the team once we are competitive so who really cares.

Having 3 points in 3 games after making the team out of camp is not "taking the bull by the horns" now?

I don't really get what more they wanted to see.

He has more goals in 3 games than Schaller has all season (36 games). He isn't the same player he was 3 years ago when he first got NHL ice, not even close. Just the exact same as Jay Beagle was a nothing bum at 23/24 and carved out 500+ games because the team he was understood the value in homegrown cheap depth. This regime doesn't get that.

That line of Eriksson-Beagle-Schaller last night is an $11m 4th line.

I'm hopeful for Gaunce, maybe not this year, but next year, after this really good season in Utica they'll see the need for a player of this ilk and he'll be cheap which hopefully will be important because the hopefully the team will choose to invest bigger $$ on the real difference makers in the lineup not the 4th line or bottom 6 of whatever label you want to use.