OT: 2019-nCov: All hockey SUSPENDED Part 2

[get25]

This was the bet:

So in 3 to 6 days we will be under 220K cases. Loser can no longer post in this thread.

2019-nCov: NHL Season SUSPENDED

You wrote this... not I...

Go back and read my reply.

 

[waffledave]

By December, I estimate in the US alone we will see around 250 million cases. You read that correctly. Right now I am willing to bet money that the real infection rate in the USA alone by the end of March will be close to half a million. I'm not joking.

I know someone working for health Canada. They are not public with this info for obvious reasons but they are estimating 60% penetration by end of year on the low end in Canada.

 

[get25]

Those goalposts are moving at lightspeed.



Where here to you say US? Nowhere. Of f***ing course US cases would double in that time, no one was debating that. You were talking about total cases as you said ok when montreal said total cases under 220k.

Can you find the post about betting for the US numbers?

Can you find a post not written by you where I did agree to a bet in those terms?

You agree that numbers are well below reality?

 

[get25]

Teaming up to attack me again?

Last Sunday, nobody was thinking the season would end.
Revisit history all you want but last Sunday, I was panicking,,,

Again: Moutons de Panurge...

 

[Milhouse40]

A week ago I wrote that this was worst than flu by n order of magnitude.
Seems I was wrong then... not so much now!

What mortality rate are you using: South Korea, Taiwan or Italy?

This beast is killing people from 30 up.
When the healthcase system is overwhelmed, mortality rate goes up. Best case is .65%, worst case is over 10%,

BTW 2% of 200 millions is 4 millions but I fail to see US achieve this rate. This will be the demonstration to the world what a commercial and profit oriented healthcare system can do.
At least 5 millions before the end of 2020.

Yeah a week ago, it was on Monday you were saying to me that you were sure that the US would have 10,000 cases by Monday.
The are at 2795 and you got one day left, so you won't make it close as i've told you.

Try to stop making prediction base on a mathematical equation. A virus doesn't work like that.

Nonetheless we can both agree that the US is a major MAJOR concern right now.

 

[llamateizer]

I do think so.

Seems crazy at first but Europ especially Itly looks really bad.

Wishing I am wrong but Trump for humans.

the US started (At least ) reacting to this. state of emergency, closing borders will help reducing the number of deaths.
I see the potential of danger of reaching millions. But It's tough to see it reach that number.

Countries like China and south Korea seems to have taken control of the situation and we talk pretty low number of death.

Europe is hit hard and the death rate is going up slowly. It's out of control, but still there, the numbers are low (far from the millions).



I'm really glad seeing quebec taking huge measures even if we're not hit yet.
Canada is slow to react, but it's coming.

 

[waffledave]

Yeah a week ago, it was on Monday you were saying to me that you were sure that the US would have 10,000 cases by Monday.
The are at 2795 and you got one day left, so you won't make it close as i've told you.

Try to stop making prediction base on a mathematical equation. A virus doesn't work like that.

Nonetheless we can both agree that the US is a major MAJOR concern right now.

The USA is incapable of testing enough people to confirm this many cases but I am positive that figure is too low by 1 or 2 magnitudes.

Edit: I am saying there are 200k infected in the USA right now. Most asymptomatic.

 

[get25]

which stock market will lose 3000 points?
Well yeah, stock market will go down as shit is hitting the fan in the US.


what did you bet exactly?


you see 1 million of death in the US? in the next day/month/year/decade?

1 millions in US... before December (most likely before October).

Lombardy was the gold standard in healthcare in Italy.
US citizens have more conditions increasing mortality rate especially Obesity and Diabetes.
Italy > US (maybe >>)

 

[CHfan1]

You wrote this... not I...

Go back and read my reply.

Your reply was “ok”, agreeing to the bet, followed by a video

2019-nCov: NHL Season SUSPENDED

 

[waffledave]

1 millions in US... before December (most likely before October).

Lombardy was the gold standard in healthcare in Italy.
US citizens have more conditions increasing mortality rate especially Obesity and Diabetes.
Italy > US (maybe >>)

1 million confirmed tested by December sure... but in the USA we will see approximately 60 to 80% of the population infected by year end, all depending on measures taken.

 

[Kriss E]

I really feel the sports world had something to do with that. That was the day NBA player Rudy Gobert tested positive for the coronavirus. That was the day the NBA suspended the season, followed shortly by every other league within 48 hours. We also had our first celebrities in Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson get it. I think those drastic measures helped show how dangerous this virus really is in North America.

Ya, but Hanks tested positive in Australia.

 

[get25]

Yeah a week ago, it was on Monday you were saying to me that you were sure that the US would have 10,000 cases by Monday.
The are at 2795 and you got one day left, so you won't make it close as i've told you.

Try to stop making prediction base on a mathematical equation. A virus doesn't work like that.

Nonetheless we can both agree that the US is a major MAJOR concern right now.

You really think there are less than 10,000 cases in US.

I bet the number of case (was 557) would double. That was Sunday (late?), it is mow 2000+

I won.

Clearly.

 

[dlowry81]

Millions of deaths? Based on what? Some of you guys have a level of dramatization I’m having trouble following.

 

[Crusher117]

French people are MASSIVE smokers tho. might play a role there.

 

[llamateizer]

1 millions in US... before December (most likely before October).

Lombardy was the gold standard in healthcare in Italy.
US citizens have more conditions increasing mortality rate especially Obesity and Diabetes.
Italy > US (maybe >>)

Italy is the 5th in median age in the world. knowing that huge majority of death were old people
List of countries by median age - Wikipedia

you're right about obesity and Diabetes will not help the US

 

[Kriss E]

1 million confirmed tested by December sure... but in the USA we will see approximately 60 to 80% of the population infected by year end, all depending on measures taken.

That's a gross estimate with no details on timeline.
Pretty sure almost 80% of population test positive for the cold on a yearly basis here too. Everyone I know gets sick once a year with a cold.

 

[get25]

Your reply was “ok”, agreeing to the bet, followed by a video

2019-nCov: NHL Season SUSPENDED

NO.

I looked at the link, nothing there,..

Is the goal of your bet to shut me up?

 

[CHfan1]

Ya, but Hanks tested positive in Australia.

Correct, but he’s pretty big in North America where people will stand up and take notice.

 

[get25]

Italy is the 5th in median age in the world. knowing that huge majority of death were old people
List of countries by median age - Wikipedia

you're right about obesity and Diabetes will not help the US

I don't have the link but US is in a worst shpae than Italy.
I do not invent stories, sometimes I don't have the link.

 

[CHfan1]

NO.

I looked at the link, nothing there,..

Is the goal of your bet to shut me up?

Not really, but you made a clear bet and lost.

 

[dlowry81]

Serious question how many on the board are 2 yrs old? I’m assuming none so you’ve survived SARS, bird flu, swine flu, H1N1, etc. Chill out this is nothing different.

Come the November US election this won’t even be a thing.

 

[get25]

French people are MASSIVE smokers tho. might play a role there.

Maybe, I have no numbers about this.

At first, I would think France is healthier than US.
But this is just an impression.

But this thing in France is kind of worrying (I am a smoker).

 

[llamateizer]

I don't have the link but US is in a worst shpae than Italy.
I do not invent stories, sometimes I don't have the link.

I know that the US is in worst shape than Italy. 33% vs 21%.


Generally older people living longer = better shape, so it reduce the obesity rate, but they are really apart

 

[get25]

G

1 million confirmed tested by December sure... but in the USA we will see approximately 60 to 80% of the population infected by year end, all depending on measures taken.

Deaths not tests... 80% seems high.

 

[Treb]

Can you find a post not written by you where I did agree to a bet in those terms?

You agree that numbers are well below reality?

Here you go:

Wanna bet?

Expect a doubling of cases every 3 to 6 days for weeks.

I'll take that bet. So in 3 to 6 days we will be under 220K cases. Loser can no longer post in this thread.

ok

Numbers are always below reality. 109k was not the exact number and neither is 156k. The exact number hasn't grown at double the rate of the confirmed one though.