I like a lot of this, but what is your angle on the "Lou will make at least one 1st round selection this June." comment? do you think Lou is going to use the Isles 1st round pick, or trade it and trade back in to the 1st round?
No particular angle here.
I'm thinking, contrary to what some around Islanderville seem to think, that Lou will not be in the business of moving our 1st for more immediate help.
If he does, then I think it'll be in a package and I think he'd then be bringing a first back as part of that move or even in an adjacent move.
However, without going into detail, I have one suspicion about a possible move that would bring back an extra first. We'll see if I still have that feeling by June.
GENERAL STATEMENT:
There seem to be Isles fans who kind of assume that A) we're in a mode to win and have pieces for the future, so we don't really need to be picking in the 1st round or much whatsoever and B) if we want to get offensive help in a trade, we've kind of gotta move that 1st rounder as part of a deal.
I'm not a fan of these trains of thought and I doubt Lou is either.
A 1st is a huge, huge commodity and we're in a day and age where it's becoming more and more common for teams picking 20-31 to come out of the draft with a bonafide NHL talent who is ready to play within 2-3 seasons. You needn't look any further than the 2016 and 2017 drafts, much less 2015. You start moving firsts when you're very close to the cup - 1 or maybe 2 pieces away. Until then, you horde them and use them with every opportunity. If they don't become future players for you, they still remain highly tradeable assets.
Furthermore, we are in the driver's seat with respect to cap space, trading chips (i.e. bodies, not picks), and team build-up. I mean, any highly capable offensive player in the league who is looking for a team that essentially just needs scoring and a better PP presence, i.e. that which he is most capable of, can basically look at this team as a prime target destination. There's plenty telling UFAs that we are soon going to be a major contender and they can be a part of it - heck, even ensure that it takes place.
Now, as you and I both know, much of keeping that advantage is based on getting things done with respect to particularly Lee, Nelson, and Lehner. That alone will also be a major task for Lou. We all know that July 1st cannot arrive with all of Lee, Nelson, Eberle, Lehner, and Filppula just hitting to free market. Then Lou's work will already be more about replacement than upgrading.
But hey, maybe even that is part of Lou's plan?