Rumor: 2019-2020 Trade Rumours and Free Agent Discussion Part 3

[Foppa2118]

Nobody was saying the team was missing Barrie when they were the best team in the league. Now that they've run into injuries to key players, some hot goalies, poor officiating, and flukey goals, they're losing because Barrie isn't here?

Everyone on the team is struggling. Barrie would be struggling if he was here too. Hell, he's struggling right now anyway with only 5 points in 16 games, all assists. Makar meanwhile has 12 points in 15 games.

Barrie isn't the reason Kadri, Burakovsky, Donskoi, and everyone else can't connect on their passes and can't find the back of the net on their shots.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I said it earlier already but the team was playing unrealistic hockey to start the year in the same sense we're not nearly as bad as what we are right now in our last 6 games either.


I mean we were what? 7-0-1 before that loss to the Blues. That was clearly not something to expect all season.


On the flip side since then we have went 1-5-1 and it's pretty fair to say that this is on the opposite end of the spectrum as well. We've run into some seriously hot goaltending(Partially due to our injuring depleting the depth we had already) and our goaltending has come back down to Earth a little as well.


The reality is that our 8-5-2 record right now if you stop looking at it broken into 2 different sections and just look at it as an entire 15 game stretch, it's a pretty solid record that would track very close to the kind of season I'd expect us to end up with.

You play 8-5-2 hockey all season long and at game 75 you'd be looking at a 40-25-10 record. It would translate to a 98 point season which would have us right in the thick of things for home ice in the first round.

I think people were drinking the cool-aid too much earlier in the season and now are gone too much in the other direction with this "The sky is falling" narrative.


We certainly need help still. It's becoming more and more clear that Donskoi is a great bottom 6 guy but he wont fill the Top 6 forward spot. And both JTC and Jost are proving to be true Centers who aren't as effective on the wing, but neither of them are going to be Top 6 Centers here either meaning we have one 3C spot for 2 guys. So something will have to give in this situation as well.... And finally the defense is proving what a lot of us have said for a while now, which is that it needs a short term fix on the Right Side to help with the Barrie loss.


If it were up to me... I'd be using Jost as trade bait for the Defensive help along with other assets depending on who we target. And then I'd be compiling one hell of a futures package to go after a quality Top 6 forward to give us that extra depth so that when we lose a Mack/Mikko/Gabe to injury we're not in the situation we are now where we have 2 Top 6 Centers but no Top 6 Wingers to pair with them causing us to make NHL goalies look like Hall of Famers a lot of nights.



My plan A for a long time was Taylor Hall but I actually think I've shifted gears a touch because I'm surprised to see this guys name popping up a couple times as maybe being available. That guy being Rikard Rakell. If he's available(And he may not even be) I'd be throwing the kitchen sink at Anaheim to get him. On the Defensive side, I kind of wonder about the Nutivaara situation in Columbus. I thought he had done a real good job the last couple years and established himself as a pretty solid NHL Defender who could play up and down the Defensive lineup. He's the kind of guy that could add stability to our back end and with the situation in Columbus right now he seems like a guy who could be had for a little cheaper than expected perhaps because of the coach relationship.



So my plan would be something like Jost for Nutivaara, and then Timmins + Kaut + Colorado 1st to Anaheim for Rakell. Nutivaara also has 2 more years beyond this year at a pretty solid cap hit that could make him a tempting expansion draft target for Seattle as well.



When you're healthy you get a lineup that looks something like:

Landy - Mack - Mikko
Rakell - Kadri - Burakovsky
Donskoi - Compher - Wilson
Nieto - Bellemare - Calvert

Girard - EJ
Cole - Makar
Zadorov - Nutivaara

Grubs
Frankie

To me that's a team that could win a cup. And Rakell is a guy that's on a fantastic deal right now and I think we could lock him up ahead of time in the 7.5-8M neighborhood next summer ahead of free agency. I'd also then be trading Zadorov at the draft this summer to recuperate some of our lost futures and create room for Byram to step in. He certainly wouldn't fetch a 1st or anything, but perhaps a 2nd + 3rd at the draft. And depending on how Burakovsky's season plays out I'd consider just cutting ties entirely with him and spending ~5-6M on another solid 2nd line option in free agency.

 

[henchman21]

When your 2nd line wingers are actually guys who were already being asked to play above their heads. What the hell else do we expect?

I'd say the PEB line, MacK, Kadri, and maybe Don are the only players not being out matched every shift. Which is probably why Bedsy's first instinct was to put them together.


I don't know how to look up usage, but I also feel like MacK isn't on the ice with Makar very often at 5v5. Or at least often enough. Plenty of power play time, but just from the eye test it seems like Sam and EJ are out there with whatever the top line is at the time. Neither G or EJ are creating much.

Might be time to let Makar try the left side next to EJ, and make damn sure they are out there with MacK every time. I might be off on that observation though.

5v5 Makar has been with MacK for ~96 minutes and Girard has been with MacK for ~117 minutes. Those two are the highest numbers amongst defensemen followed by EJ at 92 then Z at 65.

Nathan MacKinnon - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

All situations, Makar beats out Girard by 4 minutes.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I know that the forwards feel the pressure to chip in offensively which is why they cheat on helping the defense but if they were to play better defensive hockey they probably would help the transition and ultimately it would lead to more goals. Right now it's a big mess with players trying to do what they can't do while forgetting what they are good at.

As for your other point, we can't really have Makar on the left side since he's one of the only 2 righties we have on the team.

Meh.. Both Z and Cole, actually all three of Z, Cole, and Graves have done fine on the right side in the past. With Cole actually being somewhat good at it.

The point is to find someone who can actually create with MacK, and honestly right now the only real threat on the back end is Makar. It is kind of an at all costs move obviously.

You just hope the other pairs can hang, and we can get enough offense to pick up some points before the bottom falls out on the season.

I actually think Girard and Cole would make an ok second pair for what its worth.

5v5 Makar has been with MacK for ~96 minutes and Girard has been with MacK for ~117 minutes. Those two are the highest numbers amongst defensemen followed by EJ at 92 then Z at 65.

Nathan MacKinnon - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

All situations, Makar beats out Girard by 4 minutes.

Thanks, so.. That looks like I'm fairly close to right then? EJ and Makar being close and Girard being ahead. My point was just that it was not enough. Especially with scoring issues happening. Like when Bednar double shifted Barrie in the past. Obviously Makar probably can't handle that, but you never know. You can still lean towards getting Makar out with MacK at 5v5* a hell of a lot more than Bedsy has thus far IMO.

 

[Balthazar]

5v5 Makar has been with MacK for ~96 minutes and Girard has been with MacK for ~117 minutes. Those two are the highest numbers amongst defensemen followed by EJ at 92 then Z at 65.

Nathan MacKinnon - Teammates - On Ice - Natural Stat Trick

All situations, Makar beats out Girard by 4 minutes.

That's another thing, now Mack doesn't have Landy as a 2nd center to backcheck for him so it's much tougher on the defense.

 

[Balthazar]

I said it earlier already but the team was playing unrealistic hockey to start the year in the same sense we're not nearly as bad as what we are right now in our last 6 games either.


I mean we were what? 7-0-1 before that loss to the Blues. That was clearly not something to expect all season.


On the flip side since then we have went 1-5-1 and it's pretty fair to say that this is on the opposite end of the spectrum as well. We've run into some seriously hot goaltending(Partially due to our injuring depleting the depth we had already) and our goaltending has come back down to Earth a little as well.


The reality is that our 8-5-2 record right now if you stop looking at it broken into 2 different sections and just look at it as an entire 15 game stretch, it's a pretty solid record that would track very close to the kind of season I'd expect us to end up with.

You play 8-5-2 hockey all season long and at game 75 you'd be looking at a 40-25-10 record. It would translate to a 98 point season which would have us right in the thick of things for home ice in the first round.

I think people were drinking the cool-aid too much earlier in the season and now are gone too much in the other direction with this "The sky is falling" narrative.


We certainly need help still. It's becoming more and more clear that Donskoi is a great bottom 6 guy but he wont fill the Top 6 forward spot. And both JTC and Jost are proving to be true Centers who aren't as effective on the wing, but neither of them are going to be Top 6 Centers here either meaning we have one 3C spot for 2 guys. So something will have to give in this situation as well.... And finally the defense is proving what a lot of us have said for a while now, which is that it needs a short term fix on the Right Side to help with the Barrie loss.


If it were up to me... I'd be using Jost as trade bait for the Defensive help along with other assets depending on who we target. And then I'd be compiling one hell of a futures package to go after a quality Top 6 forward to give us that extra depth so that when we lose a Mack/Mikko/Gabe to injury we're not in the situation we are now where we have 2 Top 6 Centers but no Top 6 Wingers to pair with them causing us to make NHL goalies look like Hall of Famers a lot of nights.



My plan A for a long time was Taylor Hall but I actually think I've shifted gears a touch because I'm surprised to see this guys name popping up a couple times as maybe being available. That guy being Rikard Rakell. If he's available(And he may not even be) I'd be throwing the kitchen sink at Anaheim to get him. On the Defensive side, I kind of wonder about the Nutivaara situation in Columbus. I thought he had done a real good job the last couple years and established himself as a pretty solid NHL Defender who could play up and down the Defensive lineup. He's the kind of guy that could add stability to our back end and with the situation in Columbus right now he seems like a guy who could be had for a little cheaper than expected perhaps because of the coach relationship.



So my plan would be something like Jost for Nutivaara, and then Timmins + Kaut + Colorado 1st to Anaheim for Rakell. Nutivaara also has 2 more years beyond this year at a pretty solid cap hit that could make him a tempting expansion draft target for Seattle as well.



When you're healthy you get a lineup that looks something like:

Landy - Mack - Mikko
Rakell - Kadri - Burakovsky
Donskoi - Compher - Wilson
Nieto - Bellemare - Calvert

Girard - EJ
Cole - Makar
Zadorov - Nutivaara

Grubs
Frankie

To me that's a team that could win a cup. And Rakell is a guy that's on a fantastic deal right now and I think we could lock him up ahead of time in the 7.5-8M neighborhood next summer ahead of free agency. I'd also then be trading Zadorov at the draft this summer to recuperate some of our lost futures and create room for Byram to step in. He certainly wouldn't fetch a 1st or anything, but perhaps a 2nd + 3rd at the draft. And depending on how Burakovsky's season plays out I'd consider just cutting ties entirely with him and spending ~5-6M on another solid 2nd line option in free agency.

Rackell isn't available (especially not with the Ducks being competitive)...it's just a nice fit that's why is name is mentioned. If we are looking for someone pre-deadline we need to look at teams that have GM's who already know they won't make the playoffs. Right now that's Ottawa, Detroit, Minnesota and LA. NYR and NJ are close but not there yet. SJ is all-in so they won't do anything until they are mathematically eliminated.

So yeah if we want immediate help for futures we have to look Sens/Wings/Kings/Wild.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Rackell isn't available (especially not with the Ducks being competitive)...it's just a nice fit that's why is name is mentioned. If we are looking for someone pre-deadline we need to look at teams that have GM's who already know they won't make the playoffs. Right now that's Ottawa, Detroit, Minnesota and LA. NYR and NJ are close but not there yet. SJ is all-in so they won't do anything until they are mathematically eliminated.

So yeah if we want immediate help for futures we have to look Sens/Wings/Kings/Wild.

And.. None of those teams have anything that would be a real fix except Minny lol. Even someone like AA has issues at times.

MacK needs to call Sid, and get Sid to trade for Zucker then flip him to us. I'd love nothing more than to go all SJ on Minny lol.

No @Cousin Eddie Sid isn't trading himself to the Aves.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

And.. None of those teams have anything that would be a real fix except Minny lol. Even someone like AA has issues at times.

MacK needs to call Sid, and get Sid to trade for Zucker then flip him to us. I'd love nothing more than to go all SJ on Minny lol.

No @Cousin Eddie Sid isn't trading himself to the Aves.

Of course he isn’t. Nate’s going to the Burgh.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Of course he isn’t. Nate’s going to the Burgh.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Rackell isn't available (especially not with the Ducks being competitive)...it's just a nice fit that's why is name is mentioned. If we are looking for someone pre-deadline we need to look at teams that have GM's who already know they won't make the playoffs. Right now that's Ottawa, Detroit, Minnesota and LA. NYR and NJ are close but not there yet. SJ is all-in so they won't do anything until they are mathematically eliminated.

So yeah if we want immediate help for futures we have to look Sens/Wings/Kings/Wild.

I have definitely seen Rakell's name mentioned outside of here. I mean I agree if the Ducks stay competitive they wont move him, but I dont expect them to stay competitive. And they are a budget team(Always have been as well) who are likely entering a rebuild and they know that. I'm not sure they will want to pay Rakell 7-8M a year for 7-8 years when they will be rebuilding/retooling for 3-4 of those years.


The rest I agree with. If Minny wasn't in our division I think Zucker would be a solid target. I guess he's still a great target I'm just not sure the Wild do that. Some teams are dumb like that and wont deal within the division even if they're fully intent on rebuilding and not worried about being competitive(See Ottawa).


I'd pay through the nose for Mantha and I'd sniff around AA as well. But my god Mantha would be a piece if he were made available. Pretty sure I've seen both those names mentioned by Friedman potentially, AA definitely is available.

Ottawa doesn't have anything that interests me aside from Pageau. But I'm a big JTC fan so I'd rather just keep him at 3C on his contract for the next 4 years than move assets for JGP. Same thing with LA. I had interest in Toffoli last year but at this point I want a guaranteed solution instead of more trial and error like we've done with Brassard, Yakupov, Jost, and now Burakovsky. Which brings us to New Jersey. Hall is the obvious one and I'm 100% on board that train, I'm not concerned at all about his health in 5 years from now as I firmly believe our window is done in 5 years time. But another guy that interests me in New Jersey is Palmieri. He wouldn't fall into that "elite" tier that a Hall/Panarin/Huberdeau acquisition would be, but he's also a very much proven secondary scoring guy. He's hit 24 or more goals 4 straight seasons now and has an 82 game average of 30 goals and ~55 points over the last 4 years. And, he's got some term as we'd get him for next year at 4.65M also.

 

[Balthazar]

No one is talking about Kreider anymore? He's going to get traded.

 

[CobraAcesS]

No one is talking about Kreider anymore? He's going to get traded.

He may be a worse contract than Ladd/Backes after a couple years.

 

[Foppa2118]

Thanks, so.. That looks like I'm fairly close to right then? EJ and Makar being close and Girard being ahead. My point was just that it was not enough. Especially with scoring issues happening. Like when Bednar double shifted Barrie in the past. Obviously Makar probably can't handle that, but you never know. You can still lean towards getting Makar out with MacK at 5v5* a hell of a lot more than Bedsy has thus far IMO.

These are their averages per game with MacKinnon for reference.

Girard has essentially replaced Barrie as the go to guy to put out there with the top line. Most of Makar and EJ's minutes probably come from when they're paired with G.

2018-19

Barrie - 7:39
Girard - 6:59
EJ - 6:57

2019-20

Girard - 7:49
Makar - 6:25
EJ - 6:11

 

[CobraAcesS]

These are their averages per game with MacKinnon for reference.

Girard has essentially replaced Barrie as the go to guy to put out there with the top line. Most of Makar and EJ's minutes probably come from when they're paired with G.

2018-19

Barrie - 7.39
Girard - 6:59
EJ - 6:57

2019-20

Girard - 7.49
Makar - 6.25
EJ - 6:11

Yep, tilted in the wrong direction. What else do we have to lose moving Makar to the left? Two points?


A side benefit would hopefully be Makar building more chemistry with MacK for the PP.

 

[Papa Francouz]

No one is talking about Kreider anymore? He's going to get traded.

He's a big dumb-dumb and we need high-IQ players to complement our current squad.

 

[henchman21]

He's a big dumb-dumb and we need high-IQ players to complement our current squad.

Avs disagree... trading for Bura, drafting Ranta, going after Kreider....

 

[Pokecheque]

I think Hench is spot-on when it comes to talent evaluation by the Avs. They see one or two things about a player they really like and ignore everything else.

I remain very, very lukewarm about Kreider, but if he could be had as a relatively cheap rental I suppose anything helps.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think Hench is spot-on when it comes to talent evaluation by the Avs. They see one or two things about a player they really like and ignore everything else.

I remain very, very lukewarm about Kreider, but if he could be had as a relatively cheap rental I suppose anything helps.

That's really not that different than a lot of teams.

You can't ice a team full of 200 foot players with high hockey IQ. They're aren't enough of them. You have to find specialists to fill the areas of weakness.

 

[CobraAcesS]

I think Hench is spot-on when it comes to talent evaluation by the Avs. They see one or two things about a player they really like and ignore everything else.

I remain very, very lukewarm about Kreider, but if he could be had as a relatively cheap rental I suppose anything helps.

After the Hayes shit last year I have no interest in discussing trades with NY. I'm sure some who enjoys masochism will indulge though. Especially when you have to read Bern's posts.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Avs disagree... trading for Bura, drafting Ranta, going after Kreider....

You do have a point. Maybe they'll trade for a hockey genius in Pageau and pair him with Kreider. J.G. can do all the thinking while Chris jumps out of pools all day long.

 

[CB Joe]

The Avs really need to fix the fundamentals first. The breakout is bad and team defense is well below where it needs to be. Trading for a big piece isn't going to fix much.

 

[henchman21]

Thanks, so.. That looks like I'm fairly close to right then? EJ and Makar being close and Girard being ahead. My point was just that it was not enough. Especially with scoring issues happening. Like when Bednar double shifted Barrie in the past. Obviously Makar probably can't handle that, but you never know. You can still lean towards getting Makar out with MacK at 5v5* a hell of a lot more than Bedsy has thus far IMO.

Situational hockey still has to happen. Makar is getting out there frequently with MacK. Not terribly far off what Barrie was out with MacK, there is about a minute 5v5 difference per game. Part of that is Makar getting sat down, so the difference isn't as great when Makar is playing well. The difference is the level of impact Barrie had at ES compared to Makar. I would agree Bednar should swap some of the Girard shifts for Makar, but there is only so much that can be done while Makar is going through some growing pains.

 

[Pokecheque]

That's really not that different than a lot of teams.

You can't ice a team full of 200 foot players with high hockey IQ. They're aren't enough of them. You have to find specialists to fill the areas of weakness.

Yeah, I agree to an extent, but I still think that philosophy is a little too ingrained with the Avs.

 

[CobraAcesS]

Situational hockey still has to happen. Makar is getting out there frequently with MacK. Not terribly far off what Barrie was out with MacK, there is about a minute 5v5 difference per game. Part of that is Makar getting sat down, so the difference isn't as great when Makar is playing well. The difference is the level of impact Barrie had at ES compared to Makar. I would agree Bednar should swap some of the Girard shifts for Makar, but there is only so much that can be done while Makar is going through some growing pains.

My point is the small difference could make an impact.

 

[Foppa2118]

Yeah, I agree to an extent, but I still think that philosophy is a little too ingrained with the Avs.

Maybe, but I think a lot of the examples we're thinking of, came when they were in stop gap mode and waiting for the right trades, and the team to get better and more experienced before adding expensive players.

Burakovsky was essentially their fall back plan for Panarin. If they had signed Panarin, Burakovsky wouldn't be here.

I do think they're missing some high IQ creative forwards though. Panarin would have solved that and been a great fit IMO.