2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[Frenzy31]

Baseball is something I can do without. Especially with summer hockey.

 

[izzy]

i cant believe parayko is 27 already...

 

[Mike Liut]

Sources: Blues cancel practices due to ‘multiple’ COVID-19 positive tests


that’s just friggen great

 

[tfriede2]

Sources: Blues cancel practices due to ‘multiple’ COVID-19 positive tests


that’s just friggen great

This shouldn’t be a surprise - it’ll likely happen to the vast majority of teams, and why the games won’t begin until most players recover and are no longer contagious. I’m not concerned, to be honest.

 

[simon IC]

Oh, FFS! Just cancel it and have the Draft and Free Agency.

 

[BlueKnight]

I see the tweets and im not surprised that 3 Blues players have tested positive. And I've been going back and forth on this. Once the players get to their hubs and in the bubble everything will be fine. The NHL needs to throw in the towel and just cancel and wait unil covid passes or unil theres a vaccine available. If not the NHL is seriously playing with fire if they keep playing.
Hence why I'm going back and forth.

 

[BlueDream]

It’s a complete joke that they are leaving Centene open to the public during this.

 

[Mike Liut]

I see the tweets and im not surprised that 3 Blues players have tested positive. And I've been going back and forth on this. Once the players get to their hubs and in the bubble everything will be fine. The NHL needs to throw in the towel and just cancel and wait unil covid passes or unil theres a vaccine available. If not the NHL is seriously playing with fire if they keep playing.
Hence why I'm going back and forth.

we can’t cure the common cold, common flu or aids. Vaccines can take years to develop after all the testing.

 

[Brockon]

I see the tweets and im not surprised that 3 Blues players have tested positive. And I've been going back and forth on this. Once the players get to their hubs and in the bubble everything will be fine. The NHL needs to throw in the towel and just cancel and wait unil covid passes or unil theres a vaccine available. If not the NHL is seriously playing with fire if they keep playing.
Hence why I'm going back and forth.

(I realize full well that this rant does not address what you said in the post I quote, but I feel the need to rant - so lucky you, you're providing my Segway!)

The US has been seeing over 25,000 new cases daily for the past 2 weeks and recently topped 50,000 new cases in a day - based on these trends what makes you think COVID will be under wraps before the end of 2020? Or 2021 for that matter? Parts of the world have managed to maintain low case numbers, but it's folly to believe that there won't be changes in procedures moving forward... These are typically isolated and/or low density population areas with relatively little travel from different areas. Or, cultures that have embraced wearing masks and aggressive contact tracing. The US has failed to do either of these successfully. And while the NHL may not be solely US based, with 24/31 (77.4%) teams operating out of the US are at much higher risks of exposure - and when some of the ill recover from COVID to discover things like reduced lung capacity, pro athletes have a right to be concerned about the potential risks to their livelihood...

This playoff format is the league's pilot project to see if there is any chance of having a 2020-21 season in any capacity without a vaccine being in circulation. If they can't safely contain 24 teams with minimal travel, how in the f*** is the NHL going to host a season without a vaccine - which could easily take years to find, develop, test and distribute... This is dismissing the fact that there are multiple COVID mutations and a vaccine developed may not immunize the recipient to all strains of COVID; think flu shots where it targets the predicted most virulent strain 7 months ahead of time, with varying degrees of success from year to year.

I mean you might convince players to take part in a hub city playoffs format, being in a bubble for 3 months (training camp, plus 2 months of playoffs). But I guarantee that players will balk at spending the whole 2020-21 season in Hubs and bubbles which may well be the only way to have a 2020-21 season. If the US can't get a handle on their growing numbers, there's no way teams are playing at home and traveling city to city as per usual... And these growing numbers are in what is expected to be a lull - almost every projection for COVID predicts a rise in transmission rates and infections in the fall when people stay indoors for the winter and become less active in general, leading to higher incidences of illness (flu, cold etc).

I'm seriously getting sick of hearing this cancel it all and start fresh for the 2020-21 season bullshit... There's no reason to believe things will have changed in another 3 months, the league is exploring options while there is an opportunity to do so.

Unless you're advocating shutting down for multiple years for a vaccine to be in circulation, this modified playoff format is one of the safest courses to try and find a way to have hockey happen in any capacity over the next few years. By proceeding as cautiously as possible (which, the NHL is not doing - or else Vancouver wouldn't have rejected their return to play plan and would still be in the running for a Hub location) you stand a chance to stay relevant to the consumers funding your product and not watching poorer teams fold (teams like Florida, Arizona, Columbus and others operating at a loss annually in before league profit sharing) or you accept what likely becomes the longest stoppage in play in NHL history waiting for the vaccine - because a vaccine won't be in widespread use before the 2020-21 season would normally be well underway and potentially (and more realistically) much, much later.

If this playoff format fails to safely allow players to proceed with the playoffs, I'm not sure how well the whole league will weather the ensuing shutdown - I don't believe anywhere near 31 teams will emerge for a resumption after a vaccine is developed and the league will lose many players and developmental years from junior ranks as children don't get a chance to play organized hockey. Call this alarmist, but the league emerging from a full on shutdown costing one or more full season(s) will be drastically different from a team composition standpoint than the one that shutdown the 2019-20 season. Not to mention the impact on prospects and future draft selections.

Edit: moved my disclaimer about not specifically targeting vollie27's loosely related comment personally to the beginning of this post. The connection is tenuous, but I'm getting frustrated and wanted a place to vent some of that irritation at people that believe COVID will be gone by the end of summer... Much like those saying it was just a flu and not to be taken seriously. Between the deaths, the changing societal norms and the economic ruin we are going to be dealing with COVID and its fallout for the next decade at least.

 

[simon IC]

The US has been seeing over 25,000 new cases daily for the past 2 weeks and recently topped 50,000 new cases in a day - based on these trends what makes you think COVID will be under wraps before the end of 2020? Or 2021 for that matter? Parts of the world have managed to maintain low case numbers, but it's folly to believe that there won't be changes in procedures moving forward... These are typically isolated and/or low density population areas with relatively little travel from different areas. Or, cultures that have embraced wearing masks and aggressive contact tracing. The US has failed to do either of these successfully. And while the NHL may not be solely US based, with 24/31 (77.4%) teams operating out of the US are at much higher risks of exposure - and when some of the ill recover from COVID to discover things like reduced lung capacity, pro athletes have a right to be concerned about the potential risks to their livelihood...

This playoff format is the league's pilot project to see if there is any chance of having a 2020-21 season in any capacity without a vaccine being in circulation. If they can't safely contain 24 teams with minimal travel, how in the f*** is the NHL going to host a season without a vaccine - which could easily take years to find, develop, test and distribute... This is dismissing the fact that there are multiple COVID mutations and a vaccine developed may not immunize the recipient to all strains of COVID; think flu shots where it targets the predicted most virulent strain 7 months ahead of time, with varying degrees of success from year to year.

I mean you might convince players to take part in a hub city playoffs format, being in a bubble for 3 months (training camp, plus 2 months of playoffs). But I guarantee that players will balk at spending the whole 2020-21 season in Hubs and bubbles which may well be the only way to have a 2020-21 season. If the US can't get a handle on their growing numbers, there's no way teams are playing at home and traveling city to city as per usual... And these growing numbers are in what is expected to be a lull - almost every projection for COVID predicts a rise in transmission rates and infections in the fall when people stay indoors for the winter and become less active in general, leading to higher incidences of illness (flu, cold etc).

I'm seriously getting sick of hearing this cancel it all and start fresh for the 2020-21 season bullshit (I realize full well that's not what you said in the post I quote, but I feel the need to rant - so lucky you, you're providing my Segway!)... There's no reason to believe things will have changed in another 3 months, the league is exploring options while there is an opportunity to do so.

Unless you're advocating shutting down for multiple years for a vaccine to be in circulation, this modified playoff format is one of the safest courses to try and find a way to have hockey happen in any capacity over the next few years. By proceeding as cautiously as possible (which, the NHL is not doing - or else Vancouver wouldn't have rejected their return to play plan and would still be in the running for a Hub location) you stand a chance to stay relevant to the consumers funding your product and not watching poorer teams fold (teams like Florida, Arizona, Columbus and others operating at a loss annually in before league profit sharing) or you accept what likely becomes the longest stoppage in play in NHL history waiting for the vaccine - because a vaccine won't be in widespread use before the 2020-21 season would normally be well underway and potentially (and more realistically) much, much later.

If this playoff format fails to safely allow players to proceed with the playoffs, I'm not sure how well the whole league will weather the ensuing shutdown - I don't believe anywhere near 31 teams will emerge for a resumption after a vaccine is developed and the league will lose many players and developmental years from junior ranks as children don't get a chance to play organized hockey. Call this alarmist, but the league emerging from a full on shutdown costing one or more full season(s) will be drastically different from a team composition standpoint than the one that shutdown the 2019-20 season. Not to mention the impact on prospects and future draft selections.

Good points all around, Brockon. I am just angry that the whole Pietrangelo situation is going to be unresolved for another five freakin' months.

 

[Brockon]

Good points all around, Brockon. I am just angry that the whole Pietrangelo situation is going to be unresolved for another five freakin' months.

I'm not overly impressed by that either, but it's not something that can be helped... This flat cap is definitely making things look less likely that we will be retaining Petro's services after the playoffs conclude for us.

Side note, damn that was fast getting in and quoting me before my edit to my previous post! Wasn't expecting to generate much dialogue off it, especially not around 1230am PST.

 

[simon IC]

I'm not overly impressed by that either, but it's not something that can be helped... This flat cap is definitely making things look less likely that we will be retaining Petro's services after the playoffs conclude for us.

Side note, damn that was fast getting in and quoting me before my edit to my previous post! Wasn't expecting to generate much dialogue off it, especially not around 1230am PST.

Lol, welcome to my world! 30 years of afternoon shifts, followed by a pandemic has made me quite the night owl! Obviously, Armstrong didn't anticipate the flat cap, or he would have dealt with Justin Faulk differently. Now he is inadvertently painted himself into a corner.

 

[Mike Liut]

What makes Makar better than Dunn? Is his skating that superior? Dunn is a hell of a skater

 

[Bluesnatic27]

What makes Makar better than Dunn? Is his skating that superior? Dunn is a hell of a skater

Well, as far as I'm aware, Dunn has never scored 50 points in 57 games.

 

[Mike Liut]

Well, as far as I'm aware, Dunn has never scored 50 points in 57 games.

That’s why I’m asking. Most of his pts are assists. Does he get pp time? How is his defensive game?

 

[Mike Liut]

I’ve only seen Makar a few times. He’s a small dude who can skate. So I was thinking maybe he’s similar to Dunn who isn’t very big and can also skate. So I decided to watch some Makar YouTube highlights.

Holy mama, that kid is unreal. Forget I even mentioned Dunn lol.

 

[BlueMed]

I’ve only seen Makar a few times. He’s a small dude who can skate. So I was thinking maybe he’s similar to Dunn who isn’t very big and can also skate. So I decided to watch some Makar YouTube highlights.

Holy mama, that kid is unreal. Forget I even mentioned Dunn lol.

He is really good, and he has a very bright future. His mobility and hockey sense reminds me a lot of Karlsson. However, he is 1 dimensional at this point until proven otherwise.

 

[BlueMed]

Well, as far as I'm aware, Dunn has never scored 50 points in 57 games.

Points are a bad way to paint a player. Take Shattenkirk as an easy example.

 

[simon IC]

I am sure this poster will not mind me quoting him here. These are the best analyses and evaluations of Justin Faulk that I have come across from a non Blues fan. I wish I had written them.

He was a solid top-pairing option for a few years there. An RHD who can produce on the PP and hold his own defensively is a good asset. Canes asked him to do way too much, which is part of why they were a bad team. They had him skating 24:00 a night at age 20 and almost 24:30 by age 22. That’s just ridiculous, maybe you do that with a blossoming Norris candidate, but Faulk was never at that level.

Faulk’s problem is he got sloppier with time. If I’m being honest, he’s never struck me as the sharpest knife in the drawer to begin with... he’s not a guy who was going to learn the craft without veteran mentorship. A lot of ice time and a lot of losing meant a lot of bad habits sunk in. By his last season in Carolina he was getting prone to unforced turnovers and brain-cramp moments in his zone. What should have been an extremely mature, developed player ended up being a guy who un-learned good habits.

At this point I’d still consider him a good 2nd pair option, he’s just not the minute muncher he could have been.

If you’re going to look at it that way, you have to also note:

- The reason Faulk was ever on the ice against Crosby or McDavid was because he was skating next to Brett Pesce. Anyone who knows those two players, knows which of them was there to keep Crosby/McDavid in check. Rod also used Hamilton-Slavin as the counterpunch to opponents trying to get their guy away from Pesce. The Canes are uniquely positioned to make this work because they have two elite shutdown guys; other coaches aren’t in a position to shelter Faulk that way.

- As a result of the above, Faulk actually ended third in ES TOI in the Pittsburgh games, and fourth in the Edmonton game. His total TOI advantage came from having twice as much PP time as anyone else. That’s not “minute munching”, that’s a guy who’s being sheltered at ES and then force-fed PP opportunities.

- In the St Louis game, with the matchup advantage at home, the Canes matched Slavin-Hamilton against the Blues’ top line.

- We’re looking solely at the best stretch of hockey that the Canes had in the past decade. Cherry-picking that stretch ignores the fact that over a 3-year period Faulk went from a 15 goal, 40 point guy to more like a 10 goal, 30 point guy while gradually getting worse defensively. That stretch in Feb-Mar 2019, where he recaptured a little of the old magic in the context of having elite defensive babysitters, doesn’t offset three years of declining returns.

 

[simon IC]

Points are a bad way to paint a player. Take Shattenkirk as an easy example.

And Justin Faulk.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

There are two conflated issues with Faulk. The Blues’ pro scouting has been pretty sharp in recent years. They’ve zeroed in on guys that fit needs very well (Schenn, O’Reilly) and that had some upside (Sundqvist, Sanford). The Jerabek trade was a head scratcher, but I got the sense this was one scout who felt strongly about him. they were trying to respect his opinion.

The issues are:
1) Did the pro scouting peg Faulk wrong?
2) Did Armstrong have a plan for his usage on the team?

In my opinion, they had soured on Bokk and expected him to bust. They expected to lose Edmundson for nothing to UFA and not willing to pay his asking price. So in that sense they were not paying anything of value to acquire Faulk. We’ll see about Bokk. But maybe there was more value for him available elsewhere. Anyway, I think a big part of the Faulk acquisition in Armstrong’s mind was to:

1) obtain a plus value asset under team control during his prime years. (If he is overpaid by too much, he is no longer a plus value asset.)
2) Get a capable player who could spell Parayko and Pietrangelo, who both have played a lot of hockey the past season. If one of them has suffered a 1-2 month injury, suddenly Faulk would have a clear role and minutes. I bet we’d see him looking better. But that need never arose.

The cap situation with the pandemic makes Faulk’s contract look worse. Faulk’s usage on the team makes him look worse, with no well defined role. But he is still solid defensive depth on the right side, which is desirable for a contending team.

 

[TheBluePenguin]

What makes Makar better than Dunn? Is his skating that superior? Dunn is a hell of a skater

That’s why I’m asking. Most of his pts are assists. Does he get pp time? How is his defensive game?

I’ve only seen Makar a few times. He’s a small dude who can skate. So I was thinking maybe he’s similar to Dunn who isn’t very big and can also skate. So I decided to watch some Makar YouTube highlights.

Holy mama, that kid is unreal. Forget I even mentioned Dunn lol.

I read the first post and got really worried lol your one of the posters here who always seem to have a good hockey opinion, you know even when we would disagree on something I know there is a reason for you thought process lol

Makar can straight out play I Had to go and learn about him last year when the Avs fans went completely nuts in last years playoffs about him.....

His defensive game does need a bit of work, similar to a lot of young defensemen when the come up, If he works on that he could be amazing.

 

[Brian39]

That’s why I’m asking. Most of his pts are assists. Does he get pp time? How is his defensive game?

Makar is a substantially better skater and passer than Dunn. His hands are incredible and he has some of the best offensive vision I've ever seen from a D man. His defensive game isn't great, but it probably isn't as bad as people make it out to be when they describe him as a purely offensive D man. There are very, very few players around the league who were better defensively than Makar at 21 years old.

I watch a lot of Avs games and I think MacKinnon is the only player on that team I would take over Makar if I was starting a team from scratch.

 

[Mike Liut]

Makar is a substantially better skater and passer than Dunn. His hands are incredible and he has some of the best offensive vision I've ever seen from a D man. His defensive game isn't great, but it probably isn't as bad as people make it out to be when they describe him as a purely offensive D man. There are very, very few players around the league who were better defensively than Makar at 21 years old.

I watch a lot of Avs games and I think MacKinnon is the only player on that team I would take over Makar if I was starting a team from scratch.

yeah, I updated another post and said how good he is. His offense is pretty spectacular

 

[execwrite1]

These are typically isolated and/or low density population areas with relatively little travel from different areas. Or, cultures that have embraced wearing masks and aggressive contact tracing. The US has failed to do either of these successfully.

Actually it's remarkable what New York did to turn their explosion around completely. There is a way to get this under some sort of control.

But it requires discipline by the population following an out of control disaster that kills thousands first. California, Florida and Texas will probably follow that pattern.