2019-2020 St. Louis Blues - Defending the Cup - Part 3: The Prelude to Playoff Positioning

[Juicemeister]

Found this article previewing the NHL playoffs. Thought I’d share:

Central Division Stanley Cup Chances: Why Each Team Could or Couldn't Win - Last Word on Hockey

 

[MissouriMook]

The series is far from over, and I remember two eventual Cup winners falling behind 2-0 to us a few years back and winning the series, but we may need to face some uncomfortable facts in this abbreviated off season.

1. The league has changed, and we may have passed the point where physicality and defense can overcome speed, even in the playoffs. And if you can’t beat speed with physicality and defense, you have to be able to beat it with speed. Fast teams and fast players are eating us alive. Our fast players can’t really play fast, and we don’t have enough of them, and I would argue that Berube probably isn’t the guy to coach a team that needs to play faster.

2. Binnington may be (not is, MAY BE) a flash in the pan. He looked shaky at times before the pause and he has not looked good at all in his last three games. I would not be eager to give him a long term extension this fall, which means you probably need to keep Allen. Because if Binnington falters again next season and/or walks after the last year of his deal, you have nothing proven in net if you trade Allen in October. I would be really reluctant to put all of our eggs in that basket.

3. The need to keep Allen may force you to let Petro walk, unless you can pull off something really creative like trading Binnington and Allen after signing Lehner for ~$6M a year. Letting Petro walk may be inevitable anyway, but it also may signal the need for a mini-rebuild or at least a 1-2 year re-tool. I would look to move someone like Tarasenko if you can score a great deal and give guys like Kyrou and Kostin the opportunity to grow into a role and show you what you have in them. For a team just over a year removed from a championship, they look a lot more like a one-hit wonder than a perennial contender.

4. Whether we keep Petro or not, we need to figure some things out on defense. We’re way too right handed, and even our best lefty prospect prefers the right side. I don’t feel like we’ve given Dunn enough of a role to really know who he is and what he can do. We have guys like Scandella and Gunnarsson, who should be 3rd pairing and depth pieces getting prominent roles, taking up ice time that could be used to better develop Dunn and give guys like Mikkola (and next year, Perunovich) a chance to grow into NHL roles.

5. I feel like this team still lacks an identity. It was an issue the first three months of last season, and the amazing run from January to June 2019 was Glorious, but it may have glossed over the fact the identity is still lacking. They showed a few times in the regular season, and we’re seeing here in the playoffs, that the amazing goaltending and relentless determination that carried them to the Cup win can’t last forever. And when you can’t turn that on, and you lack a cornerstone identity to get you through until you find those things again, things can go South in a hurry.

I really hope they pull out of this funk before it’s too late, but I am really concerned that, if a first round exit is our fate this season, we might under-react trying not to over-react this off season.

 

[Louie the Blue]

The series is far from over, and I remember two eventual Cup winners falling behind 2-0 to us a few years back and winning the series, but we may need to face some uncomfortable facts in this abbreviated off season.

Both the Kings and Blackhawks came back from 0-2 deficits in years that they didn't win the Cup (Kings won in 2012, 2014, Hawks in 2010, 2013, 2015). Kings came back from 0-2 in 2013 and Hawks in 2014.

1. The league has changed, and we may have passed the point where physicality and defense can overcome speed, even in the playoffs. And if you can’t beat speed with physicality and defense, you have to be able to beat it with speed. Fast teams and fast players are eating us alive. Our fast players can’t really play fast, and we don’t have enough of them, and I would argue that Berube probably isn’t the guy to coach a team that needs to play faster.

This is what said when the Blues went to the WCF in 2016. They then transitioned to play younger players. I agree that the Blues need to be faster, but it's hard to tell how much of this view is being impacted by having players like Gunnarsson, Steen, and Brouwer in the line up currently. The roster isn't significantly different from last season, with the major differences being Bouwmeester and Maroon.

2. Binnington may be (not is, MAY BE) a flash in the pan. He looked shaky at times before the pause and he has not looked good at all in his last three games. I would not be eager to give him a long term extension this fall, which means you probably need to keep Allen. Because if Binnington falters again next season and/or walks after the last year of his deal, you have nothing proven in net if you trade Allen in October. I would be really reluctant to put all of our eggs in that basket.

I think at this point we can say Binnington is an average to above average goalie. If he's Corey Crawford(minus vertigo), I think a lot of us would be happy. I understand the point in wanting to keep Allen and the risk associated with trading him, but he's too expensive for the role he plays in STL. The Blues aren't running a 1A/1B goalie system anymore.

3. The need to keep Allen may force you to let Petro walk, unless you can pull off something really creative like trading Binnington and Allen after signing Lehner for ~$6M a year. Letting Petro walk may be inevitable anyway, but it also may signal the need for a mini-rebuild or at least a 1-2 year re-tool. I would look to move someone like Tarasenko if you can score a great deal and give guys like Kyrou and Kostin the opportunity to grow into a role and show you what you have in them. For a team just over a year removed from a championship, they look a lot more like a one-hit wonder than a perennial contender.

Petro will be back in St. Louis if the Blues want him and if he wants to be here. Two of Dunn, Steen, Bozak would likely have to be traded if Allen is kept, however.

4. Whether we keep Petro or not, we need to figure some things out on defense. We’re way too right handed, and even our best lefty prospect prefers the right side. I don’t feel like we’ve given Dunn enough of a role to really know who he is and what he can do. We have guys like Scandella and Gunnarsson, who should be 3rd pairing and depth pieces getting prominent roles, taking up ice time that could be used to better develop Dunn and give guys like Mikkola (and next year, Perunovich) a chance to grow into NHL roles.

On this agree. Re-signing Scandella puzzles me given that Gunnarsson is already under contract and Bouwmeester's coming off the books.

5. I feel like this team still lacks an identity. It was an issue the first three months of last season, and the amazing run from January to June 2019 was Glorious, but it may have glossed over the fact the identity is still lacking. They showed a few times in the regular season, and we’re seeing here in the playoffs, that the amazing goaltending and relentless determination that carried them to the Cup win can’t last forever. And when you can’t turn that on, and you lack a cornerstone identity to get you through until you find those things again, things can go South in a hurry.

I really hope they pull out of this funk before it’s too late, but I am really concerned that, if a first round exit is our fate this season, we might under-react trying not to over-react this off season.

I'm not sure I follow? This team is a hard hitting team that has the top end talent to compete against the best-which is something that was lacking from 2011-2018.

 

[MissouriMook]

Are we really a”hard hitting team” though? You’ve got Blais who is in and out of the lineup, and guys like Schenn, Sunny and Barbashev who have that as part of their game. That’s about it. Aside from Bortuzzo, who is also in and out of the lineup, the defense is big but doesn’t hit much.

You could argue that we’re a relentless forechecking team, but to me an identity is something that never gets turned off and we have struggled in the restart (and even in the regular season at times) to get that going, so I’m not sure you can hang your hat on that either.

I’m just afraid that our brand of hockey, one that relies very little on speed, is getting left in the dust.

 

[Jack Burton]

Are we really a”hard hitting team” though? You’ve got Blais who is in and out of the lineup, and guys like Schenn, Sunny and Barbashev who have that as part of their game. That’s about it. Aside from Bortuzzo, who is also in and out of the lineup, the defense is big but doesn’t hit much.

You could argue that we’re a relentless forechecking team, but to me an identity is something that never gets turned off and we have struggled in the restart (and even in the regular season at times) to get that going, so I’m not sure you can hang your hat on that either.

I’m just afraid that our brand of hockey, one that relies very little on speed, is getting left in the dust.

Relax.

It's a long series and if any team can turn it around then I believe the Blues can.

 

[Juicemeister]

I think the Blues need to make some adjustments.



Allen has had his struggles in the past but he’s been great this year. It may be time to give him a game and see if he gives the team a spark. The situation somewhat reminds me of what Chicago did in 2015 when they started Darling in round 1 against Nashville, after Crawford had a few rough games.

Also, I think Berube would be wise to sit Faulk and play Bortuzzo. Faulk is just really bad. Bortuzzo isn’t a world beater but he’s a better player and certainly shouldn’t be sitting for Faulk to eat minutes.

It hasn’t looked good at all since the Blues have returned to play but they can turn it around. I felt they looked a lot better last game but are losing the special team battle and just making the wrong mistakes at the wrong time. Binnington, in my opinion hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t been good.

 

[Celtic Note]

Are we really a”hard hitting team” though? You’ve got Blais who is in and out of the lineup, and guys like Schenn, Sunny and Barbashev who have that as part of their game. That’s about it. Aside from Bortuzzo, who is also in and out of the lineup, the defense is big but doesn’t hit much.

You could argue that we’re a relentless forechecking team, but to me an identity is something that never gets turned off and we have struggled in the restart (and even in the regular season at times) to get that going, so I’m not sure you can hang your hat on that either.

I’m just afraid that our brand of hockey, one that relies very little on speed, is getting left in the dust.

We are not some rock’em sock’em team that NBC makes us out to be. In the first period they were making us out to be hitting everything that moved. But, Vancouver was actually out hitting us. They decided the narrative before the game began, as communicated before the puck drop. When the narrative didn’t fit, they ran it anyway.

I agree that an identity can not be turned on and off. But, you can act differently than your identity and you can work to change it. Have you ever acted differently than how you identify with yourself? I certainly have. Sometimes it is intentional (self improvement) and sometimes it isn’t intentional (something gets the best of me). There are often external and internal forces at play. Sometimes it’s hard to identify them until after you have had time to reflect.

For the Blues, they are a “work boots /lunch pail” team or whatever cliche we want to assign. That is largely based on a hard forecheck and backcheck. We have been that way for years. Sometimes we get away from what makes us successful and we start losing as a result.when we do it to the best of our abilities, we are able to beat fast teams. We have shown we can beat any type of team while doing it.

 

[BlueDream]

We are not some rock’em sock’em team that NBC makes us out to be. In the first period they were making us out to be hitting everything that moved. But, Vancouver was actually out hitting us. They decided the narrative before the game began, as communicated before the puck drop. When the narrative didn’t fit, they ran it anyway.

I agree that an identity can not be turned on and off. But, you can act differently than your identity and you can work to change it. Have you ever acted differently than how you identify with yourself? I certainly have. Sometimes it is intentional (self improvement) and sometimes it isn’t intentional (something gets the best of me). There are often external and internal forces at play. Sometimes it’s hard to identify them until after you have had time to reflect.

For the Blues, they are a “work boots /lunch pail” team or whatever cliche we want to assign. That is largely based on a hard forecheck and backcheck. We have been that way for years. Sometimes we get away from what makes us successful and we start losing as a result.when we do it to the best of our abilities, we are able to beat fast teams. We have shown we can beat any type of team while doing it.

We outhit Vancouver 41-27 yesterday while still having the puck more than them. We have been the way more physical team and it hasn’t been remotely close.

It’s clear what our identity is and we have played extremely rough with the Canucks, actually getting away with quite a few borderline dirty plays that didn’t get called. Schenn, Blais, Perron, Sanford, Sundqvist, Brouwer have been lining guys up every chance they get. MacEachern did in the game he played, and Barbashev will do the same thing when he gets back. Even Schwartz has been kinda feisty in that regard. I definitely see an identity. I don’t know what some of these other posters are talking about. We are playing how we did last year in terms of that aspect. But the bounces aren’t going our way like they did last year. It happens, I’m definitely not gonna overreact like some are.

 

[BlueKnight]

A thought that crossed my mind this morning when i saw the news that Tuukka Rask opted out. Is i wonder if we'll see any Blues players do the same. It was just a thought that crossed my mind upon seeing that.

 

[Chojin]

RIP Tarasenko's shoulder. You have to think his career is in serious jeopardy at this point.

 

[Note Worthy]

RIP Tarasenko's shoulder. You have to think his career is in serious jeopardy at this point.

Which is sad because he's been so dominate at times. I'd hate to see his career cut short.

 

[Brian39]

Are we really a”hard hitting team” though? You’ve got Blais who is in and out of the lineup, and guys like Schenn, Sunny and Barbashev who have that as part of their game. That’s about it. Aside from Bortuzzo, who is also in and out of the lineup, the defense is big but doesn’t hit much.

You could argue that we’re a relentless forechecking team, but to me an identity is something that never gets turned off and we have struggled in the restart (and even in the regular season at times) to get that going, so I’m not sure you can hang your hat on that either.

I’m just afraid that our brand of hockey, one that relies very little on speed, is getting left in the dust.

I could agree that the regular season team isn't a "hard hitting team" but we pretty clearly are in the playoffs. As a team, we are 4th in hits and 5th in "hits per 60" since the real playoffs started August 11. We outhit Dallas by 27 hits last year in our series. We outhit San Jose by 26 hits in our series last year. We outhit Boston by 30 hits in the Final last year. We're outhitting Vancouver by 29 hits 4 games into this series. We noticeably increase our hitting when the playoffs start and make a conscious effort to outhit our opponent.

In addition to the guys you listed, we have MacMac and Sanford who both play physical games. Sanford had 109 hits this year in 58 games and MacMac had 82 hits in 51 games. All told, we had 5 guys in the top 65 forwards in hits per 60 this year (minimum 30 games played). Our roster has 5 of the 82 guys who reached the 100 hit mark this year.

As a group, our forwards hit substantially more than most teams. The level of physicality we bring wouldn't have been considered a hard hitting team 15 years ago, but it absolutely is in today's NHL. We have more physical guys in our forward group than other teams and we don't pile them all onto the bottom 6. Schenn is our 2nd most used forward. Sunny, Sanford and Blais were all regularly used in the middle 6 and Schwartz/Perron are top 6 guys who don't shy away from contact. We have a physical forward on the ice in almost all situations.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I think part of our identity this year has been to not really coast in the regular season, but only be as physical as necessary, so we save our bodies. Once the playoffs start, we just start pounding everything that moves. Regular season Blues is completely different from Playoffs Blues in terms of physicality.

I think Schenn is a guy that sort of sets that type of tone.

 

[Louie the Blue]

I think part of our identity this year has been to not really coast in the regular season, but only be as physical as necessary, so we save our bodies. Once the playoffs start, we just start pounding everything that moves. Regular season Blues is completely different from Playoffs Blues in terms of physicality.

I think Schenn is a guy that sort of sets that type of tone.

I’d say that the Blues preserving themselves hitting wise is due to the offensive talent they have vs during the Backes years.

I loved Backes, but he was never a true #1 C. Stastny was also not a #1C here(good #2 though).

Schenn and ROR make so much of a difference offensively.

 

[TheDizee]

bruins and canucks boards are spicy reads. so much butthurt and hatred for the blues style of play lol

 

[illininer]

bruins and canucks boards are spicy reads. so much butthurt and hatred for the blues style of play lol

Not surprised by Canucks fans, because their teams have always been soft, but I'm surprised at how salty Bruins fans still are. I don't even read the main boards here anymore because of that, but going through twitter during our games, a vast majority of tweets, especially to media members, are Bruins fans bitching and calling the Blues dirty/goons. It's borderline embarrassing at this point. Don't even think peak rivalry Hawk fans were this bad.

 

[MissouriMook]

Not surprised by Canucks fans, because their teams have always been soft, but I'm surprised at how salty Bruins fans still are. I don't even read the main boards here anymore because of that, but going through twitter during our games, a vast majority of tweets, especially to media members, are Bruins fans bitching and calling the Blues dirty/goons. It's borderline embarrassing at this point. Don't even think peak rivalry Hawk fans were this bad.

Those Bruins fans are all the more sad because the last time the Bruins has a really good team back in the early 70s they were known as the Big, Bad Bruins. I guess not so much anymore, at least not with a good portion of their fanbase.

 

[Blueston]

Those Bruins fans are all the more sad because the last time the Bruins has a really good team back in the early 70s they were known as the Big, Bad Bruins. I guess not so much anymore, at least not with a good portion of their fanbase.

They're still a dirty team. F**k 'em.

 

[The Note]

The beautiful irony about Bruins fans is they spent the previous decade shooting in their pants about that rough and tumble Bruins team that beat Vancouver in 2011. Then the Blues did the same thing to them last year and it was a disgrace. Boston fans have a reputation for a reason.

 

[Brian39]

Those Bruins fans are all the more sad because the last time the Bruins has a really good team back in the early 70s they were known as the Big, Bad Bruins. I guess not so much anymore, at least not with a good portion of their fanbase.

They won a Cup in 2011, went to the Final in 2013 and won the Presidents trophy in 2014. That team was physical as hell, but it's just not true that the 70s was the last time they had a great team. That early 2010s Boston team was fantastic.

 

[Blueston]

They won a Cup in 2011, went to the Final in 2013 and won the Presidents trophy in 2014. That team was physical as hell, but it's just not true that the 70s was the last time they had a great team. That early 2010s Boston team was fantastic.

They were pretty good last year too.

 

[TK 421]

I cheered one time for King Ghiddorah and that was when he trashed Fenway. Cry for me Brad you slew footing midget.

Also screw the Canucks, let's go Blues!

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Any chance Jake Allen is the Blues starter next year? Or do the Blues run with a 1A/1B tandem and run with the hot goalie?

 

[WATTAGE4451]

Any chance Jake Allen is the Blues starter next year? Or do the Blues run with a 1A/1B tandem and run with the hot goalie?

If allen stays he needs to tandem. We know allen has had success as a backup and tandem but if you ask for him for 60 starts as the guy it doesn't work out.

Use him to his best usage for him to succeed. Dont try to ask to much and think he will finally emerge as the guy. Weve seen how that works out.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

0% chance to defend....unless COVID takes down the bubbles