Speculation: 2019-2020 Sharks Roster Discussion, part deux

[Patty Ice]

Bill Karlsson 8 years $5.9M...ok Timo, 8 years, $5.5M

 

[one2gamble]

Bill Karlsson 8 years $5.9M...ok Timo, 8 years, $5.5M

I mean I'd say probably more like 4.5 since Timo only has one year at that output, get it done dw

 

[Patty Ice]

I mean I'd say probably more like 4.5 since Timo only has one year at that output, get it done dw

Maybe 5 so not to insult him.

 

[tiburon12]

Reminds me of when we had to trade Ehrhoff to the Canucks for practically nothing to clear space for the Heatley trade.

The key part of that trade was getting Brad Lukowich off the roster lol

 

[STL Shark]

At the same time, it would be a great gesture and sign of respect if Wilson did offer that extra year or two to Joe. I think that would go a lot longer than any dollar amount.

This isn’t the Make A Wish foundation where we need to be handing out great gestures to professionals.

 

[Patty Ice]

This isn’t the Make A Wish foundation where we need to be handing out great gestures to professionals.

I get that but I also think it goes along way with showing the young players that the team takes care of their own especially when the guy is the one leading the locker room. It is a business and the dollars have to make sense so if he prices himself out so be it. However, I don't think Pavelski is done even after 4 years from now so I have no problem giving him term.

 

[pappaf2]

Why is Timos contract not done?

 

[themelkman]

Why is Timos contract not done?

Thats the million dollar question. Youve gotta think the sharks want much less than he does

 

[Friday]

Thats the million dollar question. Youve gotta think the sharks want much less than he does

DW has a little more leverage if these deals aren’t announced. So other GMs don’t need to know how much cap space he needs to clear. That’s my hope at least haha that everyone is done on a handshake and he’s waiting for something else before they make it official.

 

[CupfortheSharks]

Many of you want to trade Dillon to free up cap space so we have extra money to spend for a top 6 forward. I get that we have a need in the top 6 six but I’m worried about what that does to the D. Without Dillon we are looking at a top 4 of:

Vlasic - Karlsson
Simek - Burns

The other 3 D men would be some combination of Ryan, Heed, Rookies, and cheap vet UFAs.

It seems foolish to me to count on Simek to play top 4 minutes without any kind of competition or backup plan. Yes, he was effective last year....but he only has 41 games of NHL experience and he’s coming off of surgery. It makes much more sense to me to sign a Donskoi level RW for the top 6. Then we can keep Dillon and have him and Simek compete for the #4 spot with the loser anchoring the 3rd pairing.

Help me understand what you guys are seeing.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Many of you want to trade Dillon to free up cap space so we have extra money to spend for a top 6 forward. I get that we have a need in the top 6 six but I’m worried about what that does to the D. Without Dillon we are looking at a top 4 of:

Vlasic - Karlsson
Simek - Burns

The other 3 D men would be some combination of Ryan, Heed, Rookies, and cheap vet UFAs.

It seems foolish to me to count on Simek to play top 4 minutes without any kind of competition or backup plan. Yes, he was effective last year....but he only has 41 games of NHL experience and he’s coming off of surgery. It makes much more sense to me to sign a Donskoi level RW for the top 6. Then we can keep Dillon and have him and Simek compete for the #4 spot with the loser anchoring the 3rd pairing.

Help me understand what you guys are seeing.

Either Ryan or Simek I'd trust with Burns, if they're not keeping the Vlasic-Burns pairing going. If they are, I'd imagine Simek getting placed with EK65, as he usually does well with bruiser/defensive specialist types. Ryan is fine on the 3rd pairing, and if something happens, finding a bottom-pairing d-man isn't the biggest problem in the world. There are guys out there who can handle the job for cheap.

Both Simek/Ryan haven't played a lot yet, but I think there's enough there to say that at least one of them would be sufficient.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Many of you want to trade Dillon to free up cap space so we have extra money to spend for a top 6 forward. I get that we have a need in the top 6 six but I’m worried about what that does to the D. Without Dillon we are looking at a top 4 of:

Vlasic - Karlsson
Simek - Burns

The other 3 D men would be some combination of Ryan, Heed, Rookies, and cheap vet UFAs.

It seems foolish to me to count on Simek to play top 4 minutes without any kind of competition or backup plan. Yes, he was effective last year....but he only has 41 games of NHL experience and he’s coming off of surgery. It makes much more sense to me to sign a Donskoi level RW for the top 6. Then we can keep Dillon and have him and Simek compete for the #4 spot with the loser anchoring the 3rd pairing.

Help me understand what you guys are seeing.

The problem with this argument is that while Simek is far from a sure bet as a #4D, Dillon himself is not a good #4 either. While Dillon is probably more likely to be better, we know what we are getting and that is a player who is great on the bottom pairing but who struggles in the top-4 and has an established track record of horrible playoff performances. With Simek, we have a player that is somewhat unknown and certainly not a sure bet in the top-4, but who also has a much higher ceiling.

The issue with your plan, in my opinion, of simply re-signing Donskoi, is that you are filling two holes (#4LD and #1RW) with veteran players that the coach has never trusted to fill those types of holes in the past and partially because the players have failed when they were called upon to do so. There's an argument to be made that Dillon can be the #4LD, and Donskoi can be the #1RW (next to two better players) on a team with a different coach, but this team has had those players with this coach for 4 full seasons now and they have simply never taken hold of one of those roles. We just went through a playoff run where Donskoi was healthy scratched for multiple games and Dillon was benched in overtime of game 7.

Personally, my preference, is to solve both of those holes with players who are only slightly more costly than Dillon and Donskoi but who have a track record of playing those roles and succeeding in them. Hypothetically, a duo like Jake Gardiner and Gustav Nyquist would be exactly what the doctor ordered, but that duo will cost roughly $4M more than we can reasonably spend in order to fill those roles.

It's probably not reasonable at this stage with our cap troubles to think that we will be able to fill both of those holes with established players, so I think that we would be better off opening up the #4LD spot, and making it available to one of Ferraro, Ryan, or Simek, and seeing if one of them can survive in that role. The reason that I feel that way is that we have two legitimate Norris caliber guys on the right side who have proven that they can carry an LD well above water even if that LD is not a tested and proven top-4 (see Burns with Simek and Ryan, Karlsson with Dillon), and because we have a very good #1LD who is capable of handling a big load and top competition and has thrived in that role. Lastly, we actually do have internal players who could potentially step up and fill a #4LD role and truly play at that level and not just tread water/be carried by the Norris guys. It is optimistic to project any one of Simek/Ryan/Ferraro playing consistently at that level next season, but the potential is still there for them.

Meanwhile, at forward, our top line RW will be flanked by Couture/Meier or Hertl/Kane, which are both roughly average top-line C/LW duos, maybe a bit above average, but nowhere near the strength that our RDs on both of our top pairings are. While Burns and a guy like Simek can win second line/pair matchups all day, I am not convinced that Meier/Couture will win those matchups if they don't get an RW who is at minimum Nyquist's caliber. In addition, our #2RW will be Kevin Labanc, who is also not even proven in that role and whose even strength play is a big question mark. And unlike the D-men, I don't see anybody in our system who could reasonably step up and be a top-line winger. Chmelevski or Chekhovich stepping into that role is a pipe dream in my opinion.

One last thing I will add, I do think that the organization desperately needs to add a 3rd pairing RD that is a solid defensive player at even strength and has penalty killing acumen.

I made this post a little bit longer than I wanted to, but you asked me to help you understand what I am seeing, so I went into a lot of detail lol.

 

[Jargon]

The problem with this argument is that while Simek is far from a sure bet as a #4D, Dillon himself is not a good #4 either. While Dillon is probably more likely to be better, we know what we are getting and that is a player who is great on the bottom pairing but who struggles in the top-4 and has an established track record of horrible playoff performances. With Simek, we have a player that is somewhat unknown and certainly not a sure bet in the top-4, but who also has a much higher ceiling.

The issue with your plan, in my opinion, of simply re-signing Donskoi, is that you are filling two holes (#4LD and #1RW) with veteran players that the coach has never trusted to fill those types of holes in the past and partially because the players have failed when they were called upon to do so. There's an argument to be made that Dillon can be the #4LD, and Donskoi can be the #1RW (next to two better players) on a team with a different coach, but this team has had those players with this coach for 4 full seasons now and they have simply never taken hold of one of those roles. We just went through a playoff run where Donskoi was healthy scratched for multiple games and Dillon was benched in overtime of game 7.

Personally, my preference, is to solve both of those holes with players who are only slightly more costly than Dillon and Donskoi but who have a track record of playing those roles and succeeding in them. Hypothetically, a duo like Jake Gardiner and Gustav Nyquist would be exactly what the doctor ordered, but that duo will cost roughly $4M more than we can reasonably spend in order to fill those roles.

It's probably not reasonable at this stage with our cap troubles to think that we will be able to fill both of those holes with established players, so I think that we would be better off opening up the #4LD spot, and making it available to one of Ferraro, Ryan, or Simek, and seeing if one of them can survive in that role. The reason that I feel that way is that we have two legitimate Norris caliber guys on the right side who have proven that they can carry an LD well above water even if that LD is not a tested and proven top-4 (see Burns with Simek and Ryan, Karlsson with Dillon), and because we have a very good #1LD who is capable of handling a big load and top competition and has thrived in that role. Lastly, we actually do have internal players who could potentially step up and fill a #4LD role and truly play at that level and not just tread water/be carried by the Norris guys. It is optimistic to project any one of Simek/Ryan/Ferraro playing consistently at that level next season, but the potential is still there for them.

Meanwhile, at forward, our top line RW will be flanked by Couture/Meier or Hertl/Kane, which are both roughly average top-line C/LW duos, maybe a bit above average, but nowhere near the strength that our RDs on both of our top pairings are. While Burns and a guy like Simek can win second line/pair matchups all day, I am not convinced that Meier/Couture will win those matchups if they don't get an RW who is at minimum Nyquist's caliber. In addition, our #2RW will be Kevin Labanc, who is also not even proven in that role and whose even strength play is a big question mark. And unlike the D-men, I don't see anybody in our system who could reasonably step up and be a top-line winger. Chmelevski or Chekhovich stepping into that role is a pipe dream in my opinion.

One last thing I will add, I do think that the organization desperately needs to add a 3rd pairing RD that is a solid defensive player at even strength and has penalty killing acumen.

I made this post a little bit longer than I wanted to, but you asked me to help you understand what I am seeing, so I went into a lot of detail lol.

I had a similar thought. No matter what, sacrifices have to be made and this off-season is going to hurt. Our defense being anchored by 3 top-end players makes trading Dillon a reasonable sacrifice in order to help shore up the offense, which is significantly weaker than our defense.

I’d love to see if DW can do his thing and somehow improbably trade for someone like Ehlers or Pulvjarciwecisi (I think I got that right).

 

[Pavelski2112]

I don't trust Gardiner more than Dillon; I'll say that.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

The problem with this argument is that while Simek is far from a sure bet as a #4D, Dillon himself is not a good #4 either. While Dillon is probably more likely to be better, we know what we are getting and that is a player who is great on the bottom pairing but who struggles in the top-4 and has an established track record of horrible playoff performances. With Simek, we have a player that is somewhat unknown and certainly not a sure bet in the top-4, but who also has a much higher ceiling.

The issue with your plan, in my opinion, of simply re-signing Donskoi, is that you are filling two holes (#4LD and #1RW) with veteran players that the coach has never trusted to fill those types of holes in the past and partially because the players have failed when they were called upon to do so. There's an argument to be made that Dillon can be the #4LD, and Donskoi can be the #1RW (next to two better players) on a team with a different coach, but this team has had those players with this coach for 4 full seasons now and they have simply never taken hold of one of those roles. We just went through a playoff run where Donskoi was healthy scratched for multiple games and Dillon was benched in overtime of game 7.

Personally, my preference, is to solve both of those holes with players who are only slightly more costly than Dillon and Donskoi but who have a track record of playing those roles and succeeding in them. Hypothetically, a duo like Jake Gardiner and Gustav Nyquist would be exactly what the doctor ordered, but that duo will cost roughly $4M more than we can reasonably spend in order to fill those roles.

It's probably not reasonable at this stage with our cap troubles to think that we will be able to fill both of those holes with established players, so I think that we would be better off opening up the #4LD spot, and making it available to one of Ferraro, Ryan, or Simek, and seeing if one of them can survive in that role. The reason that I feel that way is that we have two legitimate Norris caliber guys on the right side who have proven that they can carry an LD well above water even if that LD is not a tested and proven top-4 (see Burns with Simek and Ryan, Karlsson with Dillon), and because we have a very good #1LD who is capable of handling a big load and top competition and has thrived in that role. Lastly, we actually do have internal players who could potentially step up and fill a #4LD role and truly play at that level and not just tread water/be carried by the Norris guys. It is optimistic to project any one of Simek/Ryan/Ferraro playing consistently at that level next season, but the potential is still there for them.

Meanwhile, at forward, our top line RW will be flanked by Couture/Meier or Hertl/Kane, which are both roughly average top-line C/LW duos, maybe a bit above average, but nowhere near the strength that our RDs on both of our top pairings are. While Burns and a guy like Simek can win second line/pair matchups all day, I am not convinced that Meier/Couture will win those matchups if they don't get an RW who is at minimum Nyquist's caliber. In addition, our #2RW will be Kevin Labanc, who is also not even proven in that role and whose even strength play is a big question mark. And unlike the D-men, I don't see anybody in our system who could reasonably step up and be a top-line winger. Chmelevski or Chekhovich stepping into that role is a pipe dream in my opinion.

One last thing I will add, I do think that the organization desperately needs to add a 3rd pairing RD that is a solid defensive player at even strength and has penalty killing acumen.

I made this post a little bit longer than I wanted to, but you asked me to help you understand what I am seeing, so I went into a lot of detail lol.

I’ve seen Lovejoy mentioned before for the role, what are your thoughts on a 1-2 year $1.5M AAV deal for Deryk Engelland?

 

[Pavelski2112]

I’ve seen Lovejoy mentioned before for the role, what are your thoughts on a 1-2 year $1.5M AAV deal for Deryk Engelland?

I have no idea how Engelland was good in Vegas, because he was absolute garbage for his entire career up to that point.

 

[sampler]

Has anyone done the math on how much money is available league-wide relative to expected RFA and UFA salaries and cheap roster fillers? Trades obviously are net zero league wide, but I feel we can get a good estimate of player values by looking at the macro picture.

I dont have the energy to crunch the numbers, but given the RFA salaries coming for the big names and the ample number of UFAs, I wonder if the "trash heap" on July 2nd will have some nice talent in it?

If dougie is gunna move karlsson, dell, or dillon, now is the time. that space is valuable not just for pavs but for all kinds of flexibility.

It seems to me that the lower cap means that the numbers dont work to give each UFA what one might expect. I feel like there are going to be leftovers that get well underpaid. I dont expect pavs to be one of them, however, as he is the kind of player that teams will jump on. However, some Tier 2 guys like Nyqist, Zuccarello, or Dzingel or Tier 3 guys like donkey or Ferland maybe end up being bargains.

To be honest, if pavs walks and the sharks could take a 1 year, 4M flyer on Justin Williams, I wouldnt mind. Like pavs, he seems to play big when it matters and win everywhere he goes. A super veteran with all the right intangibles who can clearly still play...

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I’ve seen Lovejoy mentioned before for the role, what are your thoughts on a 1-2 year $1.5M AAV deal for Deryk Engelland?

Engelland is cooked. He is as bad as Timo Meier made him look on every shift in that series against them. He should not be in the NHL next year and any team who pays him will regret it.

However, a player in the mold of Engelland is exactly what I would want. Hard-nosed, penalty killer, willing to drop the gloves and good at fighting. Engelland circa 2017-2018 would have been great. Greg Pateryn out of Minnesota with retained salary is my ideal guy for that role.

I don't trust Gardiner more than Dillon; I'll say that.

Why not?

 

[Sharksfan83]

It'd be nice to find someone to play with Karlsson. Like Lukowich and Dan Boyle. Someone cheap that knows their role with an offensive dynamo. That way we could have Vlasic on another pair.

Simek - Burns
?? - Karlsson
Vlasic - Heed

Ryan

[Edit] Or in case Vlasic reads HFBoards

Vlasic - Heed
Simek - Burns
?? - Karlsson

WE LOVE YOU PICKLES

 

[Pavelski2112]

Why not?

Gardiner is terribad in his own zone and is not remotely worth what he'll get for his offensive output. Dillon's no Vlasic, but he's steady enough on a relatively consistent basis.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Gardiner is terribad in his own zone and is not remotely worth what he'll get for his offensive output. Dillon's no Vlasic, but he's steady enough on a relatively consistent basis.

Yet over the past 3 years, that doesn’t even remotely translate to goals against, where Gardiner allows goals at a far lower rate than Dillon. You can also compare them to their teams without them and Gardiner improves his team far more than Dillon improves his. This is despite the fact that Gardiner plays far more minutes, and against much tougher competition while Dillon gets easy minutes on the 3rd pairing.

This above doesn’t take their offense into account. That is where Gardiner truly blows Dillon out of the water. Having a player like Gardiner on our blue line would have an immensely positive impact on our breakouts.

I wouldn’t pay Gardiner $7M/7Y, simply because we just can’t afford to make that decision, but I do think he is worth that money right now. In the later years it would probably become a bad contract. Whoever is signing Gardiner will be very pleased with him.

 

[matt trick]

While I agree there's no way we can invest more big dollars into the D, there is going to be a key missing piece even if we had kept/keep, Braun, Simek, and Dillon.

The team needs a player who brings quality defense, PK, a bit of a snarl, can move the puck, and offer a decent point shot. Honestly, if he weren't so slow, Phaneuf might be a decent reclamation project. We're not going to be able to afford a Gardiner or Edler.

Maybe someone like Leddy at the deadline? He doesn't check all those boxes, but he checks a fair number of them, but brings more offense than I had in mind.

Even though the stats look bad, and he was way outmatched against Couture and Meier, I thought Zadarov played exactly the type of playoff game you want. With Makar, Girard, Barrie, EJ, Timmins, and Byram maybe he (or EJ?) become available. That being said, I doubt Colorado will be helping the team that knocked them out of the playoffs- particularly when we have so little to offer.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

I believe he can sign wherever he wants whenever he wants.

Hopefully in the KHL, or at the bottom of the ocean.

...the ocean? You mean,... with the Sharks?

 

[hockeyfan55]

Lee is weak in POs. I wouldn’t take him over pavs. Isles fans don’t want him for a reason.

 

[Patty Ice]

It'd be nice to find someone to play with Karlsson. Like Lukowich and Dan Boyle. Someone cheap that knows their role with an offensive dynamo.

Marc Methot would be the answer you are looking for. He is coming off knee surgery so I cant imagine the market would be hot after him.

And because I love throwing out his name as he would be a cheap low risk, decent reward, Dion Phaneuf.