2019/20 Roster Thread XXXI

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Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
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Try looking at his last 9 games.
There was obviously a period of adjustment pairing with Braun.
Seems they've gotten over that hump.

You're doing the thing where you focus on smaller and smaller sample sizes as being more authoritative.


I don't believe that has ever once worked out for you. It's also quite odd that 289 games isn't a large enough sample size to make a determination, but here and now 9 games is.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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You're doing the thing where you focus on smaller and smaller sample sizes as being more authoritative.


I don't believe that has ever once worked out for you. It's also quite odd that 289 games isn't a large enough sample size to make a determination, but here and now 9 games is.
Even in that smaller sample he hasn’t been good. As I just showed in the other thread:

Hagg's past 9 games at 5v5...

18.87 on-ice shooting %
.983 on-ice save %
117.1 PDO

Luck.

While still rocking the worst CF% on the team and the 4th worst xGF% during that time (of people with over 20 min at 5v5).
 

landsbergfan

Registered User
Jun 20, 2018
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Speaking of Hagg's scoring lately, since January 7th (when he got his first point of this hot period)...

17 games - 275:22 total
3 goals
6 assists
20.00% shooting

At even strength...
43.40 CF% (-9.58 rel)
45.33 xGF% (-7.51 rel)
Both of those are worst of anyone on the team with 100+ minutes during that time period.

Meanwhile, during the same time period at 5v5...

18.09 on-ice shooting % (highest in the entire league of players with 100+ minutes)
.985 on-ice save % (4th highest in the entire league of players with 100+ minutes)
116.6 PDO (highest in the entire league of players with 100+ minutes)


He hasn't been good.
He hasn't improved.
He has been insanely lucky.
I would agree that he is riding a bit of a lucky steak, but the increased production isn't just simply a shooting heater. I don't think he has improved defensively, but he has clearly been doing things a little differently in the offensive zone. Things that I am happy to see if I am going to be subjected to watching him play hockey. His main weaknesses still exist and obviously outweigh the good once the shooting percentages normalize.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
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I would agree that he is riding a bit of a lucky steak, but the increased production isn't just simply a shooting heater. I don't think he has improved defensively, but he has clearly been doing things a little differently in the offensive zone. Things that I am happy to see if I am going to be subjected to watching him play hockey. His main weaknesses still exist and obviously outweigh the good once the shooting percentages normalize.
I think luck is exactly what’s causing the increased production.

He’s still terrible offensively and far too aggressive... it’s just suddenly working out better. Not because he’s doing anything better - his shooting/passing/IQ didn’t suddenly improve - but because the puck is just somehow finding its way into the net.
 

landsbergfan

Registered User
Jun 20, 2018
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I think luck is exactly what’s causing the increased production.

He’s still terrible offensively and far too aggressive... it’s just suddenly working out better. Not because he’s doing anything better - his shooting/passing/IQ didn’t suddenly improve - but because the puck is just somehow finding its way into the net.
No I don't think he has improved those areas. I think his positioning in the offensive zone has improved, seemingly intentionally, in a way that leads to more quality chances for him to produce points. They're also going in at an unsustainable pace.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
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No I don't think he has improved those areas. I think his positioning in the offensive zone has improved, seemingly intentionally, in a way that leads to more quality chances for him to produce points. They're also going in at an unsustainable pace.
How so?

I'm not sure what you're referencing here.
 

Ghosts Beer

I saw Goody Fletcher with the Devil!
Feb 10, 2014
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One would assume it's that.


Which has me wondering what our training staff was smoking by letting Ghost play a game.
Ghost was quoted before he came back that the knee felt great & he had no limitations. Maybe he tried rushing back in & wasn’t completely honest with the med staff. Happens a lot.
 
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baudib1

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Apr 12, 2016
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It's absolutely absurd that Hagg keeps producing these insane PDO bursts at crucial times in his career. The beginning of his career when Morin and Sanheim should have made the team over him and he became established as an NHL regular, and now with Ghost out of the lineup.

I think Hagg really needed to be coached up in his younger years. I still remember his first NHL game, where he was positively electric and dynamic. I am quite certain that Gordon/Hakstol/Hextall pounded it into his head that he wasn't going to be an offensive player in the NHL and that he should concentrate on throwing his body around for hits and blocks. It probably didn't help that Andrew MacDonald was on the team during this time, providing the veteran example of passive defense. The organization and press going out of their way to highlight how important AMac's play was to the team's "success" is probably involved too.
 

Beef Invictus

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Dec 21, 2009
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Ghost was quoted before he came back that the knee felt great & he had no limitations. Maybe he tried rushing back in & wasn’t completely honest with the med staff. Happens a lot.

Guys coming back and immediately getting hurt again happens so often that I can't help but think something is quite wrong with the staff.

It was downright reckless to let Simmonds play through what he did a couple years ago for instance, and might have shredded the quality of the sunset of his career.
 

LegionOfDoom91

Registered User
Jan 25, 2013
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Guys coming back and immediately getting hurt again happens so often that I can't help but think something is quite wrong with the staff.

It was downright reckless to let Simmonds play through what he did a couple years ago for instance, and might have shredded the quality of the sunset of his career.

Simmonds got off to a hot start that year. He had hat trick in one of those first games against San Jose. It basically went to his & managements head that he could play through it. I think Hextall essentially admitted that after the fact.
 

GapToothedWonder

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Dec 20, 2013
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Ghost was quoted before he came back that the knee felt great & he had no limitations. Maybe he tried rushing back in & wasn’t completely honest with the med staff. Happens a lot.

Maybe he legitimately felt good and it's the job of the training staff to some how verify the health of his knee beyond what he is saying.

But what you said fits better into your new uncoachable narrative.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
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specifically going to the net and an effort to get open for more than just point shots or wrapping it around the boards
I don't think going to the net is a positive change for a defensemen like Hagg. :laugh:

Low chance of a positive outcome and a huge chance of an odd man rush going the other way. The guy pinches (unsuccessfully) too much as it is. This "stay at home defensemen" is more aggressive in the offensive zone than either Sanheim or Ghost.
 

DancingPanther

Foundational Titan
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Jun 19, 2018
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Alright so catch me up on the newest garbage takes on Ghost that have cropped up after the Friedman recall
 

lancer247

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Jan 16, 2007
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Even in that smaller sample he hasn’t been good. As I just showed in the other thread:

Hagg's past 9 games at 5v5...

18.87 on-ice shooting %
.983 on-ice save %
117.1 PDO

Luck.

While still rocking the worst CF% on the team and the 4th worst xGF% during that time (of people with over 20 min at 5v5).

that on ice save percentage is insane. Even giving him credit for some of it, it is insane. I don’t understand how his CF% can be so bad. I don’t buy into CF completely but man.
As long as his luck holds up until gjost hets healthy
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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Sending Hagg to the net makes sense, he's mobile and one of the biggest, most physical players on the team, it's not like we're full of PFs who attack the net on a regular basis - but it requires that a forward rotate back to the blue line - if the team has this coordinated, it can lead to scoring chances because defenders often lose track of the attacking D-man as they float out with the forward.

I doubt Hagg does this on his own, he's not a ten year veteran who'd be given that kind of latitude, if he's doing it, it's probably something they've practiced and there's a protocol for how the forwards rotate when they see Hagg attacking the O-zone (same with Provorov who also does this on a regular basis).
 
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Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
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that on ice save percentage is insane. Even giving him credit for some of it, it is insane. I don’t understand how his CF% can be so bad. I don’t buy into CF completely but man.
As long as his luck holds up until gjost hets healthy
More than anything CF% shows how much you have possession of the puck... and that fits because when Hagg is on the ice the opponent has an easier time recovering/keeping the puck because he’s bad in the offensive zone and awful at puck moving.
 

JojoTheWhale

CORN BOY
May 22, 2008
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Without worrying about the numbers, if you had to pick one Flyer who clearly looks the best from a combined Controlled Zone Exit and Entry standpoint this year, who do we think it might be?

There is an actual answer.
 
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Lord Defect

Secretary of Blowtorching
Nov 13, 2013
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American trains are wild shitty. Regional rail and subways are a nightmare, and it's rare to find an Amtrak train that isn't far along its decay. I do love Amtrak though, I used to take the New York to Montreal train now and then to visit my sister. Twelve hours, but visually stunning all through the Adirondacks. A lotta time following water, like Lake Champlain and the Hudson, all of it. Pittsburgh to Philly and back is a nice trip, too.

Saw a funny thing a couple years back...for much of 2018 they were working on the rails beneath Penn Station, meaning NJ Transit and Amtrak had to share tracks and then make the switch somewhere further south. That meant a lot of piling up on the shared tracks for the few stops in either direction.

So I'm waiting at Newark International's train station for my NJ Transit ride back home, with however many other people also waiting for one of 5 trains due on that track in the next 30 minutes--one of which was an Amtrak to DC. My train shows up first and I hop on...and am followed on by a European family with their big bags and everything. I thought nothing of it until they started speaking in what sounded like a panic, and one of them asked the conductor "Washington?" That must've sucked, because we'd made it 5 or 6 stops, there was no way they were getting their DC train.

But also, who the f*ck climbs onto a piss-drenched NJ Transit regional train and goes "Ah yes, this must be the vehicle that will carry me these 225 miles" and doesn't turn around right away? Is it that wherever they came from the trains kinda looked like that, or that they had the (correct) impressions that American long-distance trains totally suck and the vehicle matched their expectations.
I thought about taking the train from home to Florida. It was much much slower, obviously, much more expensive, surprisingly, and arrives further from our destination. I see zero positives to taking the train any distance beyond regional rails.
 
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Flyerfan4life

Registered User
Jun 9, 2010
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Richmond BC, Canada

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