2019-20 Roster Thread V

[deadhead]

What amazes me is how willing people are to give up highly valued assets for short-term incremental improvements.
As if we're one player away from winning a Cup!

Go look at actual trades, show me where a top pick was traded for a veteran, it's very rare, same with top prospects.
Sure there are idiot moves, especially at the TDL, but smart GMs can pick up solid players without stripping their talent pipeline.
Most trades involve draft picks in the 20s and good but not great prospects.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Stralman probably signs in Tampa for peanuts to stay there.

He has a stupid name anyway.

 

[46zone]

Uh, there's no way Spurgeon deserves that much.

Well he's getting slightly over 5 AAV now, 9 would be high though now that I think about it, but I don't think Spurgeon getting around 8 AAV would be ridiculous.

 

[TCTC]

Trading for a guy like Spurgeon wouldn't just be short term improvement. He's 29. He very likely still has half a decade as top 4 defenseman in him.

 

[Curufinwe]

Because fans always overrate their young players.

Like when fans said Konency had a good shot to make the Flyers as a 19 year old, and here we are three later and he's yet to even play an NHL game.

 

[BernieParent]

Those all look light on the AAV, especially TK and Sanheim. Two years for Sanheim makes no sense either. Get him locked up long term and it won't be long before he is a bargain.

I believe the rationale was that Sanheim would want a bridge to cash in 2 years down the road.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Like when fans said Konency had a good shot to make the Flyers as a 19 year old, and here we are three later and he's yet to even play an NHL game.

And I was one clamoring for him to make the team, yet now I think I was wrong. He’d probably have been better off not in the NHL at 19.

 

[TheKingPin]

God bless you for that bro. I wouldn't come close to 7 or 8 years for a 28 year old Duchene or the 9 million or so aav it's going to take to land him. I'll take Hayes at 5 or 6 years for an avv in the 5-6 million range over that any day. Hayes would be almost as productive with the Flyers in that second line role as Duchene would, and would do so at a fraction of the cost.

If Hayes signed 5 years 25 million I think you’d have to take that. But given his return at the deadline, I think he is going to get a lot more. I’d say 9 mill is the upper limit of Duchene and I am ok with that as that plus a top 4 dman and one of Frost or farabee likely makes us a playoff threat.

Me: Duchene, Karlsson, or bust.

Fletcher: Signs Hayes and Stralman.

I’m with you man, but with all the talk being 4D I wonder if they are even looking at top pair options like EK or Trouba. They may very well get stralman.

Idk if this has been posted or not, and I don't believe I am able to post the full articles, but The Athletic had some analysis as to how much and how long Provolone, the Neck, and Sanheim will sign for. There is much more analysis in the articles and explanation but the most likely scenario is:

The Neck: 3 years, $3.38 mil (Restricted free agent projections: Will Flyers go with a...)

Provolone: 6 years, $6.46 mil (Restricted free agent projections: Breaking down potential...)

Sanheim: 2 years $2.86 mil (Restricted free agent projections: What type of deal makes...)

I am totally fine with all these deals, though I would like to see Sanheim signed longer than two years.

Hopefully Sanheim is dumb and signs an 8 year deal at double that cap hit or so. Just get him signed for as long as possible. Not that he will get it, but he could easily play up to a 6 mill a year contract by next year so I’m good with giving him a lot higher cap than deserved for term.

 

[Magua]

I believe the rationale was that Sanheim would want a bridge to cash in 2 years down the road.

I think it's very hard for any young player, especially a Manitoba farm boy, to turn down a fair $30 mil 2nd contract tbh. He's already getting top 2-3 minutes and PP2 time.

Rarer is the player who has that contract on the table and chooses to bet on themselves with a bridge.

 

[BernieParent]

I think it's very hard for any young player, especially a Manitoba farm boy, to turn down a fair $30 mil 2nd contract tbh. He's already getting top 2-3 minutes and PP2 time.

Rarer is the player who has that contract on the table and chooses to bet on themselves with a bridge.

I don't see the option of a $30 million contract in the original projections. Maybe I am skimming it too quickly.

Evolving Wild’s model puts Sanheim at a $4.52 million cap hit on a 5-year term, $4.70 million at 6 years, and $4.75 million at 7 years.

Are you pointing at the 7-year deal, Magua? $30 million sure is a nice big, fat number to turn a good ol' farmboy's head, but that's why he would have an agent highlighting the <$5 million AAV. If Fletcher could sign Sanheim to a 7 x $5 million deal, I would consider that a huge win.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I can’t see Sanheim getting $5M AAV.

 

[deadhead]

Followup - all trades I could find with 1st rd/major prospect for veterans (not my headache for your headache, i.e. Drouin, etc):

Summer trades:
9/13 18 San Jose: (Florida) 2019 2nd, 2020 1st, 2021 2nd (f resigned, 1st if resigned and they go to finals) for EK
9/10/18 VGK 2019 2nd, Tatar, Suzuki for Pacioretty (no conditions, which tells me Vegas knew they could resign him)
8/2/18 Buffalo 2019 2nd, 2020 3rd, Pu for Skinner
7/1/18 St Louis 2019 1st, 2021 2nd, Thompson for ROR (27)
11/5/17 Nashville 2018 2nd, Girard, Kamenev for Turris
6/24/17 Calgary 2018 1st, 2018 2nd, 2019 2nd (cond) for Hamonic (27)
6/23/17 Saad for Panarin (1 year)
6/23/17 Arizona 2017 1st (#7) and DeAngelo for Stepan (27) and Raanta (28)
6/23/17 St Louis 2017 1st, 2018 1st for B Schenn (26) (and taking Lehtera's two years)
6/23/17 Pitt 2017 1st and Sundqvist for Reaves and 2017 2nd
7/18/16 Ottawa 2018 2nd, Zibanejad for Brassard
6/20/16 Toronto 2016 1st, 2017 2nd, for Andersen
7/1/15 Pitt 2016 1st, Kapanen for Kessel
6/30/15 San Jose 2016 1st & Kuraly for Martin Jones
6/26/15 Edmonton 2015 1st, 2015 2nd for Griffin Reinhart (21) (#4 draft pick)
6/26/15 Buffalo 2015 2nd, Zadorov, Grigorenko, Compher for ROR (24) and Jamie McGinn (27)
6/26/15 LA 2015 1st, Colin Miller & Martin Jones for Lucic (27, one year)
6/26/15 Calgary 2015 1st, 2015 2nd, 2015 2nd for Hamilton (22)
6/26/15 Buffalo 2015 1st for Lehner
10/4/14 NYR 2015 2nd, 2016 2nd for Boychuk
6/27/14 Anaheim 2014 1st, 2014 3rd, Sbisa, Bonino for Kesler (30), 2015 3rd


TDL trades [boy do some teams grossly overpay for a slight improvement in their odds]
2/25/19 Winnipeg 1st for Hayes rental
2/24/19 Buffalo (San Jose or St Louis) 1st for Montour (25)
2/23/19 Dallas 2nd, 2020 3rd (1st if resigned) for Zuccarello
2/22/19 CBJ 2019 1st (2020 1st if resigned) for Duchene
1/28/19 Toronto 1st for Muzzin rental
2/26/18 TB 2018 1st, 2019 2nd, Namestinkov, Howden for McDonough and Miller
2/26/18 VGK 2018 1st, 2019 2nd, 2021 rd for Tatar
2/26/18 San Jose 1st 2019 (cond on resign) for Evander Kane
2/26/18 Winnipeg 1st for Stastny
2/26/18 Nashville 2018 1st for Hartman
2/25/18 Boston 2018 1st, Spooner, Lindgren for Nash
2/17/17 Wash 2017 1st, 2019 2nd (cond) & Sanford for Shattenkirk
2/26/17 Minn 2017 1st, 2018 2nd for Hanzal
2/18/16 NYR 2016 2nd, 2017 2nd for Eric Staal
2/25/16 Chicago 2016 1st for Andrew Ladd
2/22/16 San Jose 2017 2nd, 2018 2nd for Roman Polak
3/2/15 TB 2015 1st, 2015 3rd, Gudas for Coburn
3/2/15 Boston 2015 2nd, 2016 2nd for Brett Connolly
3/1/15 NYR 2016 1st, 2015 2nd, John Moore, Anthony Duclair for Yandle
2/28/15 Chicago 2015 1st for Vermette
2/25/15 LA 2015 1st for Sekera
2/15/15 Nashville 2015 1st & Leipsic for Franson & Santorelli
2/11/15 Dallas 2016 1st for Enroth

 

[BiggE]

Stralman probably signs in Tampa for peanuts to stay there.

Perhaps, but if not, he’s the guy I’d go after.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Those all look light on the AAV, especially TK and Sanheim. Two years for Sanheim makes no sense either. Get him locked up long term and it won't be long before he is a bargain.

There is in depth explanation as to how they come up with these numbers. Sanheim was like 23% likely to get the two year deal and 21% likely to get six or something like that.

 

[Magua]

I don't see the option of a $30 million contract in the original projections. Maybe I am skimming it too quickly.

Are you pointing at the 7-year deal, Magua? $30 million sure is a nice big, fat number to turn a good ol' farmboy's head, but that's why he would have an agent highlighting the <$5 million AAV. If Fletcher could sign Sanheim to a 7 x $5 million deal, I would consider that a huge win.

If the ball is in Travo's court, and he demands to be bridged thinking he will contend for a Norris or get $7-8 mil in 1-2 years, so be it. But I doubt it; he seems humble and self-aware. No indication he wants to bolt, like a certain someone in a wintry wonderland. The ball is in Fletcher's court. Travo is only 1 year removed from being toyed around with by Hakstol and being sent to the AHL. A bridge on Fletcher's end, with our cap situation, is a horrible mistake.

$4.5-5 mil as a comparable has precedent (Hanifin, Chychrun, Ghost, Rielly, Pesce, Matheson). I think Theodore is a very strong recent comp at 7 years x $5.2 mil. I don't see how he could ask for more than that. That seems high end. He hasn't done enough for long enough to move into the Dumba/Hamilton bracket. I think Sanheim is and will be as good or better than many of those players, but the Flyers have the advantageous position of being deep on young defense and not desperate.

 

[Starat327]

Signing Sanheim for two years is something you do when you are A) up against the cap and currently competing(leafs situation) or b) unsure of his future potential.

Neither is the case here. Get that deal locked in for 6+.

 

[Tripod]

I am surprised we have not had any RFA signed yet tbh.

 

[Starat327]

I am surprised we have not had any RFA signed yet tbh.

None of them want to sign because we have a crappy, non-elite captain.

 

[SnS]

I am surprised we have not had any RFA signed yet tbh.

Maybe after the worlds or the cup.

 

[SnS]

None of them want to sign because we have a crappy, non-elite captain.

Can ya blame them?

 

[Tripod]

Friedman mentioned Spurgeon on his podcast. "Minny looking for changes. Kinda hearing his name out there"

Said lots of teams would like him and he has good value. But has a 20 team NTC so could eliminate a bunch of teams.

 

[BiggE]

Signing Sanheim for two years is something you do when you are A) up against the cap and currently competing(leafs situation) or b) unsure of his future potential.

Neither is the case here. Get that deal locked in for 6+.

6 years, 30 million would be great. Get it done Chuck

 

[Rebels57]

Friedman mentioned Spurgeon on his podcast. "Minny looking for changes. Kinda hearing his name out there"

Said lots of teams would like him and he has good value. But has a 20 team NTC so could eliminate a bunch of teams.

Would be shocked if Fletcher isn't in on him.

 

[TCTC]

There are probably several Minny players who are on Fletcher's radar, but Spurgeon is the only one I'd want.

 

[Tripod]

Would be shocked if Fletcher isn't in on him.

You would think, but then were we in on Nino?

But yeah, knowing Fletch wants a top 4 D that is good defensively, he knows Spurgeon and his abilities. It's a fit..IF you think you can get him re-signed at the right rate. Because it will cost us.