Speculation: 2019-20 Roster Speculation Pt. 4

[kenfury]

Wouldn't have happened if he wasn't behind a Trotz team. He would've been better than in Buffalo, both not playing behind a Housley D-zone scheme and being sober, but he's not going to be a Vezina goalie again. I don't go out on limbs with predictions, but Lehner is not going to match those numbers again. I like him, I hoped he would get his crap together as a Sabre, even though the trade to get him was stooopid (Lehner and Legwand for #21). He's just not THAT good, and he never would have been that good in Buffalo. Getting his head on straight was partly the responsibility of the Sabres management, and TM didn't know or do anything about it, even though he already knew Lehner from Ottawa.

Thats a very point about Trotz and TM. I had not thought of that. I half agree with the point about him being that good. I could see him being a upper eschelon goalie in the 12-5 range.

 

[Revelate]

After he settled in I liked the way he played but would probably say very good or above average instead of Awesome. For you braniacs what were his metrics like for the Sabres ?

Small sample size but...

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Thats a very point about Trotz and TM. I had not thought of that. I half agree with the point about him being that good. I could see him being a upper eschelon goalie in the 12-5 range.

Yea he should still be a decent starter. Chicago will be a real test while that team regroups.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

When I look at the 2021/2022 season, cap-wise, I can see why Botterill's is being careful. Anything we do today needs to be looked at through how it impacts that season since we could easily get ourselves into the same situation Toronto and others are in today. Not the end of the world but prevention is easier and cheaper than having to put out a fire.

To determine how much cap space he has to play with that season all comes down to the next contracts for the below players. I'm giving my guesses to see if anyone has a good counter argument for lower numbers.

Then I'll assume 4 ELC forward contracts and 2 ELC defense contracts and see how much cap space is left over (spoiler, it won't be much).

Estimated AAV for 2021/2022 Season
Mitts = $2.25M
Tage = $1.75M
Reinhart = $8.25M
Montour = $6M
Dahlin = $11M
Pilut = $4M​

Any thoughts on those numbers?

 

[Husko]

Small sample size but...

Which is even more impressive when you compare to w/o him:

And then in the Dzone:

So basically, he had a very strong positive impact in the offensive zone, and a very slight negative impact in the defensive zone.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Did Murray give Okposo the concussion?

i like that we're going back to it being hip to defend Murray

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

i like that we're going back to it being hip to defend Murray

I like that we're still blaming Murray for Botterill's shortcomings even though he hasn't been GM for years.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I like that we're still blaming Murray for Botterill's shortcomings even though he hasn't been GM for years.

i like that its become hip to make up things that posters never said

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

i like that its become hip to make up things that posters never said

Wasn't it you who said?:

Murray screwed this org hard

 

[Chainshot]

i like that we're going back to it being hip to defend Murray

It’s not hip. Dumping on Murray is easy: bad locker room fit for a number of players, poor development, and overpaying by at least one piece per trade if not more. But we can’t take Kyle’s injury issues and put that on his plate. If he were still a mid 40s point producing player on this train wreck of a team, maybe with breakeven offensive metrics, it’s probably not as virulent a hatred directed Kyle’s way. The production since his concussion is really similar to other players who had serious concussions. That’s on the injury, not Murray.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Forgot Mitts

I assume Mitts wasn’t included because my proposal moves him out

 

[Mattilaus]

Wasn't it you who said?:

One can hold the belief that both Murray and Botterill have been bad. Saying "Murray set this franchise back" isn't the same as saying "Murray has set this franchise back and Botterill has done nothing wrong". I don't really know how you can even argue that saying "Murray has set this franchise back" is an indictment one way or the other on Botterill. It's not commenting on him at all.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I assume Mitts wasn’t included because my proposal moves him out

Gotcha. People really think Botts is going to trade Mitts? I support the idea but that seems pretty far out there as far as probability, being Botterill's first 1st round pick and all.

 

[Moskau]

I think this team can score 3 gpg this year.

Skinner- 35
Eichel - 30
Reinhart - 25
Johansson - 20
Vesey - 17
Sheary - 16
Mitts - 15
Olofsson - 15
Okposo - 13
Girgs/Larsson/Sobotka - 15

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

It’s not hip. Dumping on Murray is easy: bad locker room fit for a number of players, poor development, and overpaying by at least one piece per trade if not more. But we can’t take Kyle’s injury issues and put that on his plate. If he were still a mid 40s point producing player on this train wreck of a team, maybe with breakeven offensive metrics, it’s probably not as virulent a hatred directed Kyle’s way. The production since his concussion is really similar to other players who had serious concussions. That’s on the injury, not Murray.

players get injured, that specific injury not his fault, not having plans in place to deal with injuries, his fault
trading most of the teams depth for 3 players, in trades that were meh value, that returned mixed results, his fault
fast tracking a rebuild and failing, his fault

to have players that step up during injuries, step 1 acquire those players (traded away the picks) step 2 have those players (traded them away too)

put a bad coach in place, his fault
waited too long to replace him, his fault

the Bylsma/lehner play set the team back so far that it torpedoed any shot at his fast track working, if there was any hope of that in the first place, mortgaged any and all future/backup plans we had for 2 years of fast tracking, gambled the house on 1 risky play and lost

doesn't make him a bad guy, still screwed the organization

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Gotcha. People really think Botts is going to trade Mitts? I support the idea but that seems pretty far out there as far as probability, being Botterill's first 1st round pick and all.

I certainly wouldn’t move him on a whim - and I did preface my post with “Let’s get crazy” - but for a player like KC? Bye, Casey. Hope Bell doesn’t throttle your internet too hard in the prairies.

 

[Husko]

Obsessed with the WOWY graph today, so decided to do a mock lineup based solely on who had the best impact on each other last season, with no regard for style, fit, etc. other than position rigidity. Here's what I learned:

The top guys

Reinhart
-Reinhart did not have any good/bad impact on Eichel. He did pull Jack toward higher event, but not closer to good. Conversely, Eichel had the same affect on Sam. Not putting them together.
-Reinhart had the exact same impact on Mitts, for him this might be a good thing. Keeping this open.
-Reinhart had a negative impact on Skinner's overall game (though he did pull it toward higher event). Keeping them apart.
-Reinhart had very positive impacts on Rodrigues, Sheary, and (lol) Sobotka.

Eichel
-Amazing impact on Pominville and decent impact on Sheary
-No real impact on Skinner or Reinhart, except to make them higher event

Skinner
-Hugely positive impact on Mitts, Okposo, Pominville, and pretty good impact on Rodrigues
-No real impact on Sam and Eichel

What this tells me: Sam, Jack, and Skinner should be on 3 different lines, since they all elevate lesser players and have no real impact on each other. Also, Skinner-Mitts-Okposo should be a thing.

The middling guys

Mitts
-Has a good impact on Rodrigues, Pominville, Thompson, and Sheary
-Hurts Okposo, Reinhart, Skinner, and pretty much every defenseman on the team

Sheary
-Actually has a slightly positive impact on Eichel
-Sobotka was a horrible, unfair anchor to him
-VERY positive impact on Mitts
-Good impact on Rodrigues
-Very few players he actually hurts

Rodrigues
-Positive impacts on: Skinner, Sheary, Reinhart, Mitts
-Negative impacts on Pominville, Larsson, and Girgensons

Okposo
-Was a really ugly drag on everyone he played with exception of Skinner and Rodrigues, both of whom he helped.

What this tells me: Sheary may have actually been ok, with his overall numbers just obliterated by time he spent with Sobotka. Rodrigues has no business on a checking line but can fit on any scoring line. Mitts belongs on a secondary scoring line, not a primary one.

The checkers
Girgensons
-Had a very strong impact on Larsson, and vice versa. Pominville too
-Hurt Rodrigues

Larsson
-Positive impact on Girgensons, Thompson, and Pominville
-No impact on Okposo

Sobotka
-Tanked every single player he touched. Can not touch the ice again

What this tells me: Girgensons and Larsson should be stapled together. Sobotka should be exterminated.


So, with all that said, the WOWY lineup:

Sheary-Eichel-X
Skinner-Mitts-Okposo
X-Rodrigues-Reinhart
Girgensons-Larsson-X

Well there you have it. The biggest takeaway here is that Eichel, Skinner, and Reinhart should all be their own line drivers, not paired with one another.

 

[dotcommunism]

Can we try to stay on topic and knock off the Murray crap?

 

[DJN21]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this question but does anyone wonder if Ralph changes up the A's on this team? Taking the C from jack seems far fetched so I'm not going down that rabbit hole but he seems to have a strong approach in dealing with players or at least speaking with them and given the fact some questionable long term pieces such as Risto, Okposo, Bogo etc have held letter of late do you see this being a motivationale tactic or will letters carry over? Not exactly important by any means but its summer and I haven't seen it mentioned yet...

 

[cramdizzl]

Obsessed with the WOWY graph today, so decided to do a mock lineup based solely on who had the best impact on each other last season, with no regard for style, fit, etc. other than position rigidity. Here's what I learned:

The top guys

Reinhart
-Reinhart did not have any good/bad impact on Eichel. He did pull Jack toward higher event, but not closer to good. Conversely, Eichel had the same affect on Sam. Not putting them together.
-Reinhart had the exact same impact on Mitts, for him this might be a good thing. Keeping this open.
-Reinhart had a negative impact on Skinner's overall game (though he did pull it toward higher event). Keeping them apart.
-Reinhart had very positive impacts on Rodrigues, Sheary, and (lol) Sobotka.

Eichel
-Amazing impact on Pominville and decent impact on Sheary
-No real impact on Skinner or Reinhart, except to make them higher event

Skinner
-Hugely positive impact on Mitts, Okposo, Pominville, and pretty good impact on Rodrigues
-No real impact on Sam and Eichel

What this tells me: Sam, Jack, and Skinner should be on 3 different lines, since they all elevate lesser players and have no real impact on each other. Also, Skinner-Mitts-Okposo should be a thing.

The middling guys

Mitts
-Has a good impact on Rodrigues, Pominville, Thompson, and Sheary
-Hurts Okposo, Reinhart, Skinner, and pretty much every defenseman on the team

Sheary
-Actually has a slightly positive impact on Eichel
-Sobotka was a horrible, unfair anchor to him
-VERY positive impact on Mitts
-Good impact on Rodrigues
-Very few players he actually hurts

Rodrigues
-Positive impacts on: Skinner, Sheary, Reinhart, Mitts
-Negative impacts on Pominville, Larsson, and Girgensons

Okposo
-Was a really ugly drag on everyone he played with exception of Skinner and Rodrigues, both of whom he helped.

What this tells me: Sheary may have actually been ok, with his overall numbers just obliterated by time he spent with Sobotka. Rodrigues has no business on a checking line but can fit on any scoring line. Mitts belongs on a secondary scoring line, not a primary one.

The checkers
Girgensons
-Had a very strong impact on Larsson, and vice versa. Pominville too
-Hurt Rodrigues

Larsson
-Positive impact on Girgensons, Thompson, and Pominville
-No impact on Okposo

Sobotka
-Tanked every single player he touched. Can not touch the ice again

What this tells me: Girgensons and Larsson should be stapled together. Sobotka should be exterminated.


So, with all that said, the WOWY lineup:

Sheary-Eichel-X
Skinner-Mitts-Okposo
X-Rodrigues-Reinhart
Girgensons-Larsson-X

Well there you have it. The biggest takeaway here is that Eichel, Skinner, and Reinhart should all be their own line drivers, not paired with one another.

Nice work.

Looks like Sheary should be in the top group. I'm not surprised to see him faring well in this. He made a lot of good things happen but he and his linemates were absolutely snake-bitten when it came to finishing the play. The bad rap he gained around here has always surprised me, especially given his tenacity and how badly this team has been lacking it.

 

[Husko]

Nice work.

Looks like Sheary should be in the top group. I'm not surprised to see him faring well in this. He made a lot of good things happen but he and his linemates were absolutely snake-bitten when it came to finishing the play. The bad rap he earned around here has always surprised me.

Since you mentioned Sheary, here is his WOWY chart. The blue cluster generally represents where he is as a player, which is pretty average, maybe a little above, better than I expected of him. When you look at where he got pulled with Sobotka, yikes. Most impressive is the way he pulled Mitts all the way across the Mendoza line. And as I said, positive impact on Eichel too. This should all be said with the caveat that any minutes with him were probably the easiest minutes a player played.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Nice work.

Looks like Sheary should be in the top group. I'm not surprised to see him faring well in this. He made a lot of good things happen but he and his linemates were absolutely snake-bitten when it came to finishing the play. The bad rap he gained around here has always surprised me, especially given his tenacity and how badly this team has been lacking it.

I may be wrong but WOWY doesn't track scoring, just these shot metrics. Isn't the benefit of Skinner with Eichel, not that they generate more chances, its that those chances get converted to goals more frequently?

 

[Tsyolin]

I'm just counting down the days till the pre-season, I want to be surprised by what I see this year.

 

[joshjull]

I may be wrong but WOWY doesn't track scoring, just these shot metrics. Isn't the benefit of Skinner with Eichel, not that they generate more chances, its that those chances get converted to goals more frequently?

Yes sir.

Also their respective styles of play in the offensive zone lend themselves to a certain synergy. Which would be Jack liking to possess and get to the puck to the net from distance and Skinner being very effective in and around the net. Creates issues for defenses as the try to track and defend Jack while still trying to keep Skinner from getting in behind them.

 

[WeDislikeEich]