Speculation: 2019-20 Roster Speculation Pt. 4

[GellMann]

I think this team can score 3 gpg this year.

Skinner- 35
Eichel - 30
Reinhart - 25
Johansson - 20
Vesey - 17
Sheary - 16
Mitts - 15
Olofsson - 15
Okposo - 13
Girgs/Larsson/Sobotka - 15

That is ~200 goals from the forwards. 45 goals from Dahlin (10-15), Risto (5-10), Miller (5-10), Montour (8-10) and the rest of the blueline is also reasonable. Those goal totals listed above are pretty much said players recent gpg average...imagine if a guy like Mitts really did break out in year 2 and became a 25-25 player? Or if Olofsson is an impact player from day 1 and puts up 20-25 goals as a rookie? Maybe Jack has some puck luck and gets 40 goals ripping the puck as often as he does. Maybe Sam has a great year in front of the net and pots 30. At the very least we can say is that we have an entire top 9 capable of all scoring 15+ goals. Hell, this doesn't even take into account Tage or Nylander. They could have a strong off season and establish themselves as true top 9 forwards this year.

This team has a lot more talent top to bottom since the last playoff teams we had under Ruff.

Now imagine if we cap the off season with a true 2c acquisition. A 20 goal, 50 point 2C to insulate Mitts one more year makes this team a wild card contender. One of Vesey, Sheary, or Mitts will have an above average (20+ goal season) imo. Anything can happen. A team who won 10 in a row and was in first at Thanksgiving finished bottom 6. A team in last on new years won the cup. Just get to the playoffs. Anything can happen.

Considering a safe formula for your posts last offseason was to divide your claims by 2 to get the actual value, I'm pretty worried.

 

[kenfury]

Murray screwed this org hard

Yes, getting a Cup/Conn Smyth winning Center, a Jennings Goalie, and building the type of heavy winger team that won the cup this year. Terrible job.

 

[Gabrielor]

Yes, getting a Cup/Conn Smyth winning Center, a Jennings Goalie, and building the type of heavy winger team that won the cup this year. Terrible job.

He also hired a coach who the entire room hated, and his best defensive acquisition was...Josh Gorges???

Murray should always get credit for getting oreilly and Eichel, but outside of those moves, it was mostly trash.

 

[Djp]

I do, actually. Home with Father and more ice space vs. tighter space.

I think the thing that took the biggest hit in his development was confidence.

Nylander saw what is brother did and if he thinks he is better than his brother then he got fruestrated he didnt get a chance. this affects motivation--not so much as confidence.

Buffalo intentionally kept in Rochester to keep him exempt from a proposed 2020 ED. last year it was moved to 2021.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

What about the raises due to Reinhart, Mitts, Thompson, Montour, and Pilut? That basically eats up almost all of that cap space right there.

Reinhart is the big one, obviously. Mitts would be traded in my scenario. Thompson depends on Thompson. Montour and Pilut combined are the same or cheaper than Sam. Sam goes from 3.65 to 7. Montour from 3.3 to 4.5. Pilut goes to 2.2, let’s say. Arttu replaces Gus at half the price.

I think it’s worth it to have a forward core of Eichel, Skinner, Conner, Sam locked up for 5 seasons. Two dynamic scoring lines, funnel up young defense from a stocked pipeline to replace older, more expensive blueliners. Borgen isn’t far off. Neither is Bryson, imo.

 

[Dreakon13]

So you changed your entire argument from "Murray ruined the team by rushing players" to "Murray would've ruined the team by rushing players but he wasn't good enough."

What a waste of time this crap is.

When posed the question, I realized that Regier was actually the one more guilty of doing what I said. Murray was guilty of something different, but my argument only changed because I realized I was wrong.

Heaven forbid someone be wrong and actually admit it around here. Sorry that bothered you so much.

EDIT: And I never said Murray would've ruined the team if he had prospects... in a later post I even said it'd be interesting to see what he did because none of us know.

 

[Djp]

What about the raises due to Reinhart, Mitts, Thompson, Montour, and Pilut? That basically eats up almost all of that cap space right there.

Montour looks like something near $6M
Thompson $1M
Pilut--$2M bridge depending on how much NHL he plays

Reinhart--say he gets $8M

the change is abour 2.2M+0.1M+1.1M+4.5M=8.9M= aboue Sgeary+Hunwick+Sobotka

 

[Baccus]

Nylander saw what is brother did and if he thinks he is better than his brother then he got fruestrated he didnt get a chance. this affects motivation--not so much as confidence.

Buffalo intentionally kept in Rochester to keep him exempt from a proposed 2020 ED. last year it was moved to 2021.

Thats some next level make believe.

 

[Dingo44]

You did a great job finding the anomaly from all the way last year, but that doesn't hide the fact that all last fall I read over and over again how weird it was that the offseason played out like that, and so I feel that his point still stands as he explained it.

Good point but I think it's going to be more the norm this year as opposed to the exception. Too many teams under the gun, especially cap-wise.

 

[Djp]

When posed the question, I realized that Regier was actually the one more guilty of doing what I said. Murray was guilty of something different, but my argument only changed because I realized I was wrong.

Heaven forbid someone be wrong and actually admit it around here. Sorry that bothered you so much.

Murray managed when??

14/15--fed by 2010-2012 drafts+ a few from earlier drafts or later drafts
15/16--fed by 2011-2013 drafts+ a few from earlier drafts or later drafts
16/17--fed by 2011-2014 drafts+ a few from earlier drafts or later drafts

Most of this time was under Darcy;s watch

Buddalo drafted high in 2013-2015 so usually those go directly to the NHL

 

[Djp]

Thats some next level make believe.

No its not...its asset management

if the ED was in 2020--Nylander, Dahim, Borgen,, Pilut, and a bunch others would have been ED exempt. This could have allowed Buffalo to go 8-1 instead of 7-3-1

With Nylander his contract slid if he didnt play 10 MHL games

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Reinhart is the big one, obviously. Mitts would be traded in my scenario. Thompson depends on Thompson. Montour and Pilut combined are the same or cheaper than Sam. Sam goes from 3.65 to 7. Montour from 3.3 to 4.5. Pilut goes to 2.2, let’s say. Arttu replaces Gus at half the price.

I think it’s worth it to have a forward core of Eichel, Skinner, Conner, Sam locked up for 5 seasons. Two dynamic scoring lines, funnel up young defense from a stocked pipeline to replace older, more expensive blueliners. Borgen isn’t far off. Neither is Bryson, imo.

I have much different numbers than you, I’d add 1.5M to each player based on recent signings.

 

[BloFan4Life]

Montour looks like something near $6M
Thompson $1M
Pilut--$2M bridge depending on how much NHL he plays

Reinhart--say he gets $8M

the change is abour 2.2M+0.1M+1.1M+4.5M=8.9M= aboue Sgeary+Hunwick+Sobotka

Montour has been a trainwreck the last two years. Him at 6 million is laughable.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Montour looks like something near $6M
Thompson $1M
Pilut--$2M bridge depending on how much NHL he plays

Reinhart--say he gets $8M

the change is abour 2.2M+0.1M+1.1M+4.5M=8.9M= aboue Sgeary+Hunwick+Sobotka

Forgot Mitts

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Montour has been a trainwreck the last two years. Him at 6 million is laughable.

Why are we trading our first rounders for train wrecks? You must hate our GM more than anyone if you think he’s giving up premium assets for 3rd pairing Dmam

 

[Husko]

Short of the magical Risto for #2 center strategy, I'm starting to wonder if our best, though not ideal, way forward may be to just build a 2nd defensive line but signing or trading for a Boyle/Bonino type. It would make for two lines of low event/low scoring/boring hockey, and put a lot of scoring pressure on our top 2 lines, but might just be the best way forward at this point:

Skinner-Eichel-Olofsson/Vesey/Sheary/Nylander
Johansson-Mitts-Reinhart
Smith-Boyle/Bonino/X-Rodrigues
Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo

It's not perfect, but at least there's direction there. The strategy is evident: win with your top 6, break even with your bottom 6.

 

[HaNotsri]

Regarding Nylander's development it's not as simple as SHL vs. AHL. I think he signed with Rögle BK and then was loaned to OHL to be able to play in the AHL.
While SHL/HA can be really good for work rate, defensive positioning since it's a defense first league, especially for a team like Rögle was back then (they're up and coming now) but it might not be the best environment for Nylander who needs to develop his offensive game. Liljegren is a good example - he was loaned back and forth between SHL/HA and never got a real role on a team.

Then you have an extreme variety in facilities, coaches, intensity during practice, "pre-season culture" (northern teams often collaborate with the national ski-team, they basically torture themselves. Southern teams collaborate more with the track and field elite).
As an NHL team I'd want my prospect on a team expected to be on the top half and with professional facilities: Frölunda, Skellefteå, Växjö, Luleå or HV71 (in that order). Other teams could work from case to case as well.

Anyway, the decision to put him in Rochester might not have been the worst.

 

[Baccus]

No its not...its asset management

if the ED was in 2020--Nylander, Dahim, Borgen,, Pilut, and a bunch others would have been ED exempt. This could have allowed Buffalo to go 8-1 instead of 7-3-1

With Nylander his contract slid if he didnt play 10 MHL games

Nylander being kept down because of when a possible expansion draft multiple years in the future might happen is a major league reach. Just because you think it lines up after the fact is about as useful as your thinking Moulson was going to retire out of the last year or two of his contract.

Especially when Nylander's spot somehow went to Thompson, you know, Botts guy that he targeted in a trade. The obvious answer being most likely and all that.

 

[Aladyyn]

Montour has been a trainwreck the last two years. Him at 6 million is laughable.

He has been awesome in Buffalo after being freed from Randy Carlyle.

 

[CatsforReinhart]

Yes, getting a Cup/Conn Smyth winning Center, a Jennings Goalie, and building the type of heavy winger team that won the cup this year. Terrible job.

Jennings goalie? Did I miss something? Lehner was a trainwreck here and Bylsma was terrible.

 

[Buffalo Norsemen]

Short of the magical Risto for #2 center strategy, I'm starting to wonder if our best, though not ideal, way forward may be to just build a 2nd defensive line but signing or trading for a Boyle/Bonino type. It would make for two lines of low event/low scoring/boring hockey, and put a lot of scoring pressure on our top 2 lines, but might just be the best way forward at this point:

Skinner-Eichel-Olofsson/Vesey/Sheary/Nylander
Johansson-Mitts-Reinhart
Smith-Boyle/Bonino/X-Rodrigues
Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo

It's not perfect, but at least there's direction there. The strategy is evident: win with your top 6, break even with your bottom 6.

Despite his size, inexperience, and the possibility of him returning to Finland I wonder if they liked what they seen so far of Ruotsalainen and might want to see him in some preseason play to see if he can fill a role as well.

 

[Buffalo Norsemen]

He has been awesome in Buffalo after being freed from Randy Carlyle.

After he settled in I liked the way he played but would probably say very good or above average instead of Awesome. For you braniacs what were his metrics like for the Sabres ?

 

[kenfury]

Jennings goalie? Did I miss something? Lehner was a trainwreck here and Bylsma was terrible.

Due to his booze and mental health issues. He was scouted correctly and if he was the player here he was on the Island people would be thrilled.

 

[SabresFan26]

Jennings goalie? Did I miss something? Lehner was a trainwreck here and Bylsma was terrible.

And NYI didn’t even keep him. He was a product of the system and had basically identical stats and even games with Griess

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Due to his booze and mental health issues. He was scouted correctly and if he was the player here he was on the Island people would be thrilled.

Wouldn't have happened if he wasn't behind a Trotz team. He would've been better than in Buffalo, both not playing behind a Housley D-zone scheme and being sober, but he's not going to be a Vezina goalie again. I don't go out on limbs with predictions, but Lehner is not going to match those numbers again. I like him, I hoped he would get his crap together as a Sabre, even though the trade to get him was stooopid (Lehner and Legwand for #21). He's just not THAT good, and he never would have been that good in Buffalo. Getting his head on straight was partly the responsibility of the Sabres management, and TM didn't know or do anything about it, even though he already knew Lehner from Ottawa.