2019-20 Dallas Stars Regular Season Discussion - Part II

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AveryStar4Eva

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Aug 28, 2014
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Yeah Gurianov deserves big props I wasn’t even sure if he was going to be an NHLer going into this season and he’s now on a 27 goal pace. Doesn’t matter who was drafted after him getting a 25 goal scorer is pretty darn good at 12th overall.
 

BigG44

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I don’t fully understand how bonuses work, but with these two hitting bonuses and Sekera/Perry getting some bonuses it’s going to have a large affect on our cap next season I assume?

It's not great, but the way Sekera and Perry started playing in the past month at least makes it more palatable. When I was on my get rid of Perry kick, he was at 38 games played and a few weeks from earning $750K more in bonuses. He'd been playing mediocre, 4th line minutes and somehow getting PP time. That $750K he was poised to get would have paid for almost an entire season of Jason Robertson ($795K) next season. There was no way Nill was going to do it, and ultimately it was the right move. Perry completely turned his game around. He's not putting up huge numbers, but he's consistent and playing really well. That extra money Dallas will eat is tough next year, but the value he's adding to this team now ... if he sustains it ... will be more than acceptable.

The most important thing you need to know about bonuses is they cannot be paid with LTIR space. Since Dallas only has $815 in projected cap space remaining this season, virtually 100% of all bonuses earned will go on next year's cap which is already tight.

I've posted about bonus specifics multiple times so just to answer your question simply ... I'll give you the likely bonus a player will earn.

Perry: $1.5 million
Heiskanen: $850K
Sekera: $500K
Gurianov: $212,500 (Another $212,500 is possible)

Bonus overage: $3,062,500 or $3,275,000

Perry would earn an additional $100K if the Stars win the Western Conference Finals and go to the Stanley Cup. He gets an additional $150K if the Stars win the Stanley Cup.

Heiskanen could earn (although highly unlikely) $1.65 million if he wins the Conn Smythe (only legitimate B bonus he likely has a shot at this year).
 
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AveryStar4Eva

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Aug 28, 2014
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It's not great, but the way Sekera and Perry started playing in the past month at least makes it more palatable. When I was on my get rid of Perry kick, he was at 38 games played and a few weeks from earning $750K more in bonuses. He'd been playing mediocre, 4th line minutes and somehow getting PP time. That $750K he was poised to get would have paid for almost an entire season of Jason Robertson ($795K) next season. There was no way Nill was going to do it, and ultimately it was the right move. Perry completely turned his game around. He's not putting up huge numbers, but he's consistent and playing really well. That extra money Dallas will eat is tough next year, but the value he's adding to this team now ... if he sustains it ... will be more than acceptable.

The most important thing you need to know about bonuses is they cannot be paid with LTIR space. Since Dallas only has $815 in projected cap space remaining this season, virtually 100% of all bonuses earned will go on next year's cap which is already tight.

I've posted about bonus specifics multiple times so just to answer your question simply ... I'll give you the likely bonus a player will earn.

Perry: $1.5 million
Heiskanen: $850K
Sekera: $500K
Gurianov: $212,500 (Another $212,500 is possible)

Bonus overage: $3,062,500 or $3,275,000

Perry would earn an additional $100K if the Stars win the Western Conference Finals and go to the Stanley Cup. He gets an additional $150K if the Stars win the Stanley Cup.

Heiskanen could earn (although highly unlikely) $1.65 million if he wins the Conn Smythe (only legitimate B bonus he likely has a shot at this year).

Thanks for the breakdown. I remember reading somewhere that LTIR can’t be used towards bonus overage which I figured would screw us. Nothing we can do about the Gurianov contract and Heiskanen, but hopefully Nill doesn’t load up on veterans with bonuses again next season.
 

serp

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Jan 17, 2016
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Thanks for the breakdown. I remember reading somewhere that LTIR can’t be used towards bonus overage which I figured would screw us. Nothing we can do about the Gurianov contract and Heiskanen, but hopefully Nill doesn’t load up on veterans with bonuses again next season.

Contracts of Sekera and Perry are special cases because they missed so many games previously . Only guys who missed signficant amount of time ( or are 35+ ) can even be given contracts with conditional boni . ( well and ELC's but those are obviously different ) . Those type of contract don't happen very often.
 

BigG44

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Corey Perry will be 35. He absolutely could get another contract with a ton of bonuses, and if he stays in Dallas, he probably will.

Not advocating him to re-sign at this point. Highly dependent on his performance in the playoffs, but a contract with bonuses makes sense for him and whoever signs him.

Bonuses next year won't be so terrible. Yes they will likely end up toiling to the following season, but the cap situation is better in 2021-22 than 2020-21.

FWIW ... Heiskanen has bonuses already next season. He'll likely easily earn all of the A bonuses again, but there is better chance next year for him to earn that $1.65 million B bonus as well.
 

BigG44

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Realistically, I would say there is a reasonable chance that happens later this season. Dallas is 9 points up on 4th and they're 6 points back of 2nd with 17 games to go.

In all likelihood, they'll lock up 3rd place before the end of the season, and Dallas will rest players utilizing some emergency call ups. It would make sense for him to get in to at least 1 game or so, especially considering Dallas ends the season on the road with 3 games in 4 nights. It would make no sense for the top players to go through that if they're locked into 3rd place at that point.
 

BigG44

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May be a bit premature, but there's more and more talk about Mikhail Grigorenko coming back to the NHL. His contract in Russia ends this season, and Colorado did not qualify him. At 25 years old, he's an unrestricted free agent.

More and more Russians are transitioning pretty well to the NHL like Radulov, Gusev, and Dadonov. Nichushkin is even having some success now, and Grigorenko has done better in the KHL than Nichushkin did. He seems like a pretty smart target for Dallas since he only cost cash, and Dallas has started to evolve into a three scoring line team by spreading out everyone.

Just seems like a low risk signing for a guy that could play center or wing, especially if Dallas moved Faksa or Dickinson this summer.
 

Magic Mittens

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Nov 2, 2006
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May be a bit premature, but there's more and more talk about Mikhail Grigorenko coming back to the NHL. His contract in Russia ends this season, and Colorado did not qualify him. At 25 years old, he's an unrestricted free agent.

More and more Russians are transitioning pretty well to the NHL like Radulov, Gusev, and Dadonov. Nichushkin is even having some success now, and Grigorenko has done better in the KHL than Nichushkin did. He seems like a pretty smart target for Dallas since he only cost cash, and Dallas has started to evolve into a three scoring line team by spreading out everyone.

Just seems like a low risk signing for a guy that could play center or wing, especially if Dallas moved Faksa or Dickinson this summer.

I wouldn’t mind him, but I think they’ll be a few teams inquiring about him. Hopefully not a lot to drive up his price
 

BigG44

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Pretty significant news for Dallas. Previous reports were the cap could increase only $1 million, but that was speculation on TSN's part since the league for the first time chose to not give a projection. Seems they were gun shy after over estimating the cap last year, and the fact they're coming out with this number now might suggest they are a little more certain about the range. Typically, that first projection comes out around December not March.

 

BigG44

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Dallas has 15 players plus Nichushkin's buyout costing $62,035,832 against the cap. Add in the higher estimated bonus overage of $3,275,000, and you have $18,689,168 in cap space with an $84 million cap.

Benn-Seguin-*****
*****-Dickinson-*****
*****-Pavelski-Radulov
Cogliano-*****-Comeau
Dowling

Lindell-Klingberg
Heiskanen-Johns
Oleksiak-*****
Fedun

Bishop
*****

I still think it should probably cost about $10 to $12 million to re-sign Faksa, Hintz, and Gurianov if you keep them all. It's probably going to cost about $3 million to keep Khudobin. Even with the cap potentially going up, I think you need to move Faksa in order to open up the space to afford a scorer.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

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May 20, 2014
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The first bit of extra space will probably be used to re-sign Dobby for about $4Mil. Jake O is still a year away, and you don't mess with what works, unless some other team offers Dobby multiple years. (Stars might offer 2 years, top, I imagine.)

For similar reasons, I don't really think they will get rid of Faksa. He is not an under performing Cody Eakin that isn't worth another $4 Million. I could see Cogs or maybe Comeau getting replaced on that line by one of our youth prospects, not him.

I also think Sekera has played well enough to warrant another contract as our third pair D, and we waive Pollack good bye.
 

FirstRowUpperDeck

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I agree. I mean, we spent $7M on a 38 goal scorer last year, and he will end up with half that for us. It would be interesting to see how many of our UFA goal scorer pick ups have worked out all that well.

Currently, Rads, I guess. Spezza 1 out of 3 years he was here. Historically, Hull, Niewy. Verbeek, Turgeon, Audette, and a few others didn't seem to live up to their UFA hype.
 

BigG44

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The problem with Cogliano is he's a cap dump. Dallas has never paid for another team to eat the salary of an overpaid player. They've taken another player back to get rid of guy, but that defeats the purpose of creating cap space. Nill has actively come back with overpaid players who had under performed to the detriment of the team in fact .... Niemi. So yes Cogliano makes the most sense, but it's not as easy as just saying trade him. A buyout doesn't make a ton of sense with him either. While he would absolutely be my first choice to dump, realistically, there's not much optimism that occurs. If Dallas is able to shed his salary, Nill will have either done something out of his norm or we've just shuffled the deck and moved him for another overpaid piece.

Comeau, at least IMO, isn't getting traded. Yes he's slightly overpaid compared to Cogliano significantly being overpaid, but more so than Cogliano he's become a fixture in the leadership core and they seem to really like him. If they were choosing between the 2, I'd be surprised if they chose to move Comeau first. Right or wrong, they seem to think he is an important part of team leadership.

Just because of the structure of his contract, the guy that does make some sense as a trade piece, especially if you wanted to keep Faksa, is Radulov. He's due a large bonus on July 1, and his salary for the remainder of the season is $1 million. He only has trade protection against 15 teams. He's due $4.65 million the final year of his contract, and a buyout is not cost prohibitive.

Regarding Faksa, he definitely makes the team better. He's also excellent value at his current contract. He's about to get paid like Hanzal though, and despite getting PP time, even if he is saddled with Cogliano and Comeau at ES, he's still not producing. There is very little doubt in my mind that he will become a difficult to move, unwanted contract sooner rather than later. The exact way we're talking about Cogliano and Comeau is probably where Faksa will be in 1 to 2 years.

Defense-first centers with little offensive ability are cheap to acquire via trade, and they shouldn't cost that much cap space. IMO, this is the unfortunate situation where yeah Faksa makes the team better, but he's no where near worth the value of the contract he's going to sign. If you had nothing behind him in terms of prospects, you might be forced to sign a longer term deal. However, you have Dickinson already in the NHL as well as Dellandrea and Gardner who are close to NHL ready to fill that type of role. You also have a pretty solid defensive center prospect in Back who is a few years away. This isn't a position of weakness for Dallas, and those dollars could go a lot further addressing another area. Plus, you have the added bonus of the fact Faksa has value. It's not going to be astronomical, but he's a decent trade chip.

FWIW ... he is an under-performing Cody Eakin. It's actually kind of funny you used him as an example. They have almost identical stats with Eakin getting a slight edge when you compare their career path. Eakin, like Faksa, was extremely valuable up to the point he got the contract eating into UFA years. This is the norm for that position. Checking line centers get overpaid as they approach UFA, they either maintain their average scoring or more often actually see a drop in production, and then they become overpaid, bad contracts. We're already watching Faksa have his dip in production, and you have an opportunity to not be the team that overpays.
 
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BigG44

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I didn't talk about it from this perspective, but I would also be fine approaching this situation like Janmark. Qualify him, he already has arbitration rights, and try and work on a 1 year deal. See how he does next season, and if he justifies an extension great. If not, he walks as an UFA.

I just have a pretty good feeling that if you went that route, the majority of fans would start looking at him like they are Janmark right now. It's hard to not acknowledge that Janmark is a good player, but it's also really easy to realize you'd much rather throw a guy with an ELC out there than pay him UFA money next season.

With his $2.4 million QO, you're probably looking at between $3 and $3.5 million on a 1 year deal.
 
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