Speculation: 2019-20 Anaheim Ducks Roster Discussion Part III

[Paul4587]

For everyone wanting to trade for a RD (which we clearly do need) - who do you protect in the expansion draft?

Lindholm, whoever we get and whoever has aged better out of Manson/Fowler.

 

[IDuck]

Whatever happens, they need to leave Sprong in SD. He isn't a savior to a cup season and this is his last best chance to learn what he should have learned before the Pens messed him up. Call him up now he will have not had time to learn anything and chances are he will not pass thru waivers next time. We need to be patient with him unless we are flat out giving up on him.

agree...the team slogan for this season should be PATIENCE...

also, terry is exactly where he should be, he needs to learn how to produce AT THE NHL level (same with steel). jones is the one i question.

 

[MilesNewton]

Really he has gone pointless in 3 gsmes in SD and they're losibg pretty bad. They had tones of PPs too and he still isnt producing. The guy seemed defeated to me when he got sent down.

Might take him a few games to snap out of it. They can't really play many consistent lines because of the vet rule. Thinking he will snap out if it the next few games.

 

[Paul4587]

He has had one game where I thought he was good. Other than that he's been all flashes of skill but no finish to show for it. He still lacks strength imo.

that’s what I see with Terry. He’s very skilled and creative but he gets bullied along the boards and can’t really maintain a cycle all that well against bigger dmen.

 

[Paul4587]

Zucker will be traded to the ducks sooner than later. That will help a lot, does terry go the other way ( I’m sure they don’t want Sprong )

You’ve got sources? Or is this speculation?

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I am reading a lot about how creative and good Troy Terry is. Also, I hear that Nick Ritchie is terrible. I watch the games and see something different. So I decided to do some simple math.

Nick Ritchie age 23 250 games 36 goals 56 assists 92 points +10
Troy Terry age 22 39 games 4 goals 9 assists 13 points +7

Goals per game-Ritchie 0.144 Terry 0.103
Assists per game-Ritchie 0.224 Terry 0.230
Points per game-Ritchie 0.368 Terry 0.333

Ritchie scores goals and points at a higher rate than Terry. Terry assists at a slightly higher rate. Ritchie is one year older. But the narrative on this board is primarily that Ritchie is garbage and Terry is a great prospect. What gives?

You could be missing a couple of groups such as a group that believes Terry is creative, working hard, and not getting points along with Ritchie has skills, often doesn't show up constantly, but earns points. Ritchie had a very good year last year being almost a half-a-point per game player last year. Ritchie is going into his fifth NHL season and I'm expecting him to take his game up a notch. In five games this season, he has 3 points. That's not surprising of Ritchie, but what is surprising is he remains a bit invisible longer than he should. Terry is going into this 2nd NHL season and you see him darting everywhere in a good way (not the Jones darting aimlessly), but no score sheet production.

As for the narratives, a factor could be exposure. Ritchie's going into his 5th NHL season this year while Terry is going onto his second. Some people are still seeing the same area of improvement still existing in Ritchie's fifth NHL season.

Ritchie's rookie season with the Ducks/Gulls
2015-16
Level: AHL
Games: 38
Scoring: 16g +14a = 30 pts (or 0.8 ppg)

Level: NHL
Games: 33
Scoring: 2g +2a = 4 pts (or 0.12 ppg)

Terry's rookie season with the Ducks/Gulls
2018-19
Level: AHL
Games: 41
Scoring: 16g + 25a = 41 pts (or 1.0 ppg)

Level: NHL
Games: 32
Scoring: 4g +9a = 13 pts (or 0.41 ppg)

So there's obvious hype for Terry when comparing their rookie seasons. Granted, there are age differences as Terry went to the college route. Then again, Ritchie was selected 10th overall and Terry went in the 5th round (148th overall). The only apples-to-apples comparisons should be their rookie season into the pros (NHL and AHL), where the games played do match similarly. I like Ritchie, but I also want more from Ritchie for all 60 minutes going into his fifth NHL season. I like Terry and wished he could get onto the score sheet. The context in experience does make a difference, though. You're comparing Ritchie's 250 NHL games (four seasons and five games) to Terry's 39 NHL games (a season and six games). That's not really a great apples-to-apples comparison.

Anyhow, I know some people don't like neither Ritchie and Terry. I know some that don't like Ritchie and are indifferent of Terry as well as vice versa. I want both to improve in their "need to improve" areas so the Ducks can continue to improve. It's okay to be critical of players. It's also okay to have different perspectives. The plus side to Terry's inability to get onto the score sheet is that there's a vast difference in play between him and Jones' inability to get onto the score sheet. Terry's snakebitten and Jones is running around quite fast like a decapitated chicken - thus the difference between quantitative and qualitative analysis.

 

[KyleJRM]

There were 30 guys in the NHL who put up at least 40 points last season in their age-22 or younger season. We have criminally low expectations for our forwards, constantly excusing a lack of production from them.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Just go
Rakell steel silf
Shore getz terry
Ritchie henrique kase
Deslaruis grant rawney

Sheerwood next wing call up... lundy if we neee a center.


Hopefully guhle is back soon... i felt a lot more comfort with him in our top 4

 

[Kalv]

Yeah I want Terry to be sent down and Sherwood called up. Jones should see some time with the Gulls too - maybe call up Kopacka for a game or two, just to sniff the air in the NHL? Pretty sure he would not be ready for much more, but why not give him some short promotion

 

[Ducks DVM]

There were 30 guys in the NHL who put up at least 40 points last season in their age-22 or younger season. We have criminally low expectations for our forwards, constantly excusing a lack of production from them.

That’s 120 1st rounders, and less than 40 of them managed that feat. That’s roughly 500 players picked before Terry in the drafts, and roughly 8% managed that feat. I’m not motivated enough to see how many of those guys were by what round, but I’m guessing that it’s almost exclusively 1st and 2nd based on most years.

Maybe we have realistic expectations. Draft position absolutely does matter as far as expected progression. A player doesn’t drop to the 5th round unless they’re flawed in some fashion, and the ones who completely and immediately outperform their draft position are actually really rare. It doesn’t take a genius to see that Terry has a slight build. He is stronger than last year, but probably not as strong as he needs to be. He either needs to keep building muscle or keep figuring out how to change his game at this level. Building muscle in-season is almost impossible, so...

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Yeah I want Terry to be sent down and Sherwood called up. Jones should see some time with the Gulls too - maybe call up Kopacka for a game or two, just to sniff the air in the NHL? Pretty sure he would not be ready for much more, but why not give him some short promotion

I just dont know that sending terry doen really benefits him... we just need him to get points and raise his confidence... i think once he scores or impacts our offense his confidence will jump up.

 

[Kalv]

Small sample size but in shot attempts we are #22 in the league. We finished off last year at #27

 

[AngelDuck]

Small sample size but in shot attempts we are #22 in the league. We finished off last year at #27

The system is helping us defensively drastically.

but man, this offense is rough. Not a lot of natural playmakers or goal scorers out there

 

[Kalv]

The system is helping us defensively drastically.

but man, this offense is rough. Not a lot of natural playmakers or goal scorers out there

The offense would be really well if Comtois, Jones, Steel and Terry would all suddenly reach their primes though

I do believe, by the eye test, that the system will continue to improve, and our defensive breakdowns SHOULD reduce. But I believe it`s time to start rotating our youngsters between San Diego and Anaheim.

 

[Deuce22]

You could be missing a couple of groups such as a group that believes Terry is creative, working hard, and not getting points along with Ritchie has skills, often doesn't show up constantly, but earns points. Ritchie had a very good year last year being almost a half-a-point per game player last year. Ritchie is going into his fifth NHL season and I'm expecting him to take his game up a notch. In five games this season, he has 3 points. That's not surprising of Ritchie, but what is surprising is he remains a bit invisible longer than he should. Terry is going into this 2nd NHL season and you see him darting everywhere in a good way (not the Jones darting aimlessly), but no score sheet production.

As for the narratives, a factor could be exposure. Ritchie's going into his 5th NHL season this year while Terry is going onto his second. Some people are still seeing the same area of improvement still existing in Ritchie's fifth NHL season.

Ritchie's rookie season with the Ducks/Gulls
2015-16
Level: AHL
Games: 38
Scoring: 16g +14a = 30 pts (or 0.8 ppg)

Level: NHL
Games: 33
Scoring: 2g +2a = 4 pts (or 0.12 ppg)

Terry's rookie season with the Ducks/Gulls
2018-19
Level: AHL
Games: 41
Scoring: 16g + 25a = 41 pts (or 1.0 ppg)

Level: NHL
Games: 32
Scoring: 4g +9a = 13 pts (or 0.41 ppg)

So there's obvious hype for Terry when comparing their rookie seasons. Granted, there are age differences as Terry went to the college route. Then again, Ritchie was selected 10th overall and Terry went in the 5th round (148th overall). The only apples-to-apples comparisons should be their rookie season into the pros (NHL and AHL), where the games played do match similarly. I like Ritchie, but I also want more from Ritchie for all 60 minutes going into his fifth NHL season. I like Terry and wished he could get onto the score sheet. The context in experience does make a difference, though. You're comparing Ritchie's 250 NHL games (four seasons and five games) to Terry's 39 NHL games (a season and six games). That's not really a great apples-to-apples comparison.

Anyhow, I know some people don't like neither Ritchie and Terry. I know some that don't like Ritchie and are indifferent of Terry as well as vice versa. I want both to improve in their "need to improve" areas so the Ducks can continue to improve. It's okay to be critical of players. It's also okay to have different perspectives. The plus side to Terry's inability to get onto the score sheet is that there's a vast difference in play between him and Jones' inability to get onto the score sheet. Terry's snakebitten and Jones is running around quite fast like a decapitated chicken - thus the difference between quantitative and qualitative analysis.

You missed my point completely. I wasn't comparing the two players to say that Ritchie is better, although right now he is. I was comparing the two to explain why I think the agendas of most on this board (Ritchie is trash and Terry is great) are bogus.

 

[KyleJRM]

That’s 120 1st rounders, and less than 40 of them managed that feat. That’s roughly 500 players picked before Terry in the drafts, and roughly 8% managed that feat. I’m not motivated enough to see how many of those guys were by what round, but I’m guessing that it’s almost exclusively 1st and 2nd based on most years.

Maybe we have realistic expectations. Draft position absolutely does matter as far as expected progression. A player doesn’t drop to the 5th round unless they’re flawed in some fashion, and the ones who completely and immediately outperform their draft position are actually really rare. It doesn’t take a genius to see that Terry has a slight build. He is stronger than last year, but probably not as strong as he needs to be. He either needs to keep building muscle or keep figuring out how to change his game at this level. Building muscle in-season is almost impossible, so...

ok, so if we are going with the the idea that Terry should be treated like a fifth rounder, he should be lucky to even be in the AHL.

Heck, we can stop talking about him entirely as part of the future

 

[Ducks DVM]

ok, so if we are going with the the idea that Terry should be treated like a fifth rounder, he should be lucky to even be in the AHL.

Heck, we can stop talking about him entirely as part of the future

No, we should live in a world where regardless of what list that we or some other group put him on, we realize that he was drafted where he was due to flaws, that those flaws are still at least somewhat present, and that as long as he’s making progress that we shouldn’t hot take him at the start of the season. Not every path to the NHL is the same, what a bunch of other players did is sorta irrelevant. If you could show me a huge list of 4-7th rounders who were all successes before 22, I’d be more concerned. If you honestly think he’s shown zero physical or mental improvement since last year, that’s your right to your opinion. I think he has, and I think that on a team that can’t score goals, with a new coach, with a new system, with no line continuity, that it’s premature to label him as “worrying”. YMMV

He’s still got 76 games to get the 40 points you want.

 

[KyleJRM]

No, we should live in a world where regardless of what list that we or some other group put him on, we realize that he was drafted where he was due to flaws, that those flaws are still at least somewhat present, and that as long as he’s making progress that we shouldn’t hot take him at the start of the season. Not every path to the NHL is the same, what a bunch of other players did is sorta irrelevant. If you could show me a huge list of 4-7th rounders who were all successes before 22, I’d be more concerned. If you honestly think he’s shown zero physical or mental improvement since last year, that’s your right to your opinion. I think he has, and I think that on a team that can’t score goals, with a new coach, with a new system, with no line continuity, that it’s premature to label him as “worrying”. YMMV

He’s still got 76 games to get the 40 points you want.

Feels like "heads I win, tails you lose." Or throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall to see what sticks.

"It's too early in this season to make a judgement" is a completely different argument (and one I agree with) than "He's just a fifth-round pick, so you can't judge him, but also you have to keep him around because he looks like he's could develop into something good you can't just treat him like a fifth-round pick."

I love Terry by the eye test this year and there's about five guys I would send down before him. But 13 points in 40 NHL games tells a vastly different story than the eye test does, and it's worth acknowledging that problem without just shrugging it off.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

No, we should live in a world where regardless of what list that we or some other group put him on, we realize that he was drafted where he was due to flaws, that those flaws are still at least somewhat present, and that as long as he’s making progress that we shouldn’t hot take him at the start of the season. Not every path to the NHL is the same, what a bunch of other players did is sorta irrelevant. If you could show me a huge list of 4-7th rounders who were all successes before 22, I’d be more concerned. If you honestly think he’s shown zero physical or mental improvement since last year, that’s your right to your opinion. I think he has, and I think that on a team that can’t score goals, with a new coach, with a new system, with no line continuity, that it’s premature to label him as “worrying”. YMMV

He’s still got 76 games to get the 40 points you want.

Ya new system.... new team and a pp clickin a 0 %. Offense will increase a lil as the team gels, and pp will increase.

I think terry will hit 40 points if hes on team all year

 

[Ducks DVM]

Feels like "heads I win, tails you lose." Or throwing a bunch of stuff at the wall to see what sticks.

"It's too early to make a judgement" is a completely different argument (and one I agree with) than "He's just a fifth-round pick, so you can't judge him, but also you have to keep him around because he looks like he's could develop into something good you can't just treat him like a fifth-round pick."

My first two posts on the matter both said I think he could use a trip to San Diego. Whoever you’re arguing with on that, it isn’t me.

I made a statement about him being a 5th round pick, and that’s why I wasn’t “worried”. I’ve expounded on why I’m not worried. I’ve given an example on another flawed college player took some time (Manson and Bonino also took longer than 22 to hit their stride). I’ve identified what I think his flaws are and what he needs to do to improve them. I’ve pointed out team related reasons for his point totals to be depressed.

I think the people who wanted Ritchie dumped after year 1-3 were premature and was vocal about it. I’m doing the same with Terry. I also said you were entitled to your opinion, but this would be a much less frustrating discussion for you if you’d just discuss him as an individual. I really don’t care what a bunch of first rounders have done.

I also very clearly said you were entitled to your opinion if you felt he was stagnating as a player. It’s on you to provide a bit more detail at that point though.

 

[KyleJRM]

Why is his status as a fifth-rounder more important than, for example, his status as a top-25 prospect?

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Hasn't Dineen buried Sprong in 4th line minutes on the 4th line in SD ?

 

[Ducks DVM]

Why is his status as a fifth-rounder more important than, for example, his status as a top-25 prospect?

Who has him as a top 25 prospect? Not trolling, I’ve just not seen any list with Terry there. Usually Zegras , with Steel up in the 30’s.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Terry to me look liked a 17 yearold last year, does he not have any muscle ?

 

[KyleJRM]

I'm going off memory, you may be right. Amend it to say top-100