2018 off-season thread

[BernieParent]

i may wear shorts tomorrow if it is warm, otherwise i may not. - Ron Hextall

There is a reasonably good chance that the sun will rise tomorrow. We will evaluate the heat, humidity, and chance of precipitation at the proper time and continue to monitor it to make the clothing decisions that are right for us now and for the future. My staff of meteorologists and I are much better assessors of weather patterns and five-day forecasts than the casual weather discusser and contributor to online meteorological discussion boards. I am confident with the different pant and short types we have in our closet and drawers, and we are watching their progress through the laundry cycle intently.

 

[FlyTimmo]

If they sign Tavares/Carlson they will have 3 8+ million long term deals and then another waiting to happen. Three 8+ I can see but 4 is where might get a little tight.

It will be tight, but the cap is projected to go up and they have contracts they can move if they need to. They will be fine.

 

[deadhead]

We also have the option of signing a short-term fix for 3C, and waiting a year or two (the young players will signal when they're ready) for the team to hit critical mass, THEN make the big move.
Players are always available in free agency and through trades, and JT isn't "special."

4 yr leader board pp/60 (214 with 3000+ minutes)
McDavid 2.98
Kucherov 2.40
Malkin 2.36
Tarsenko 2.35
Benn 2.33
P Kane 2.32
Pastrnak 2.30
Crosby 2.27
Marchand 2.23
Stone 2.22
Tavares 2.07 (26th)
35 players averaged 2.00+ over this period, so it's a pretty good measure of top ES scoring

4 year cutoffs (800 5x5 minutes)
total # 262/237/234/231 - 241
2.50 - 17/5/5/8 - 9
2.25 - 35/21/13/21 - 23
2.00 - 70/47/41/50 - 52
1.75 - 110/98/87/95 - 98
1.50 - 169/143/139/140 - 148
1.25 - 219/195/190/191 - 199
1.00 - 246/222/214/214 - 224

If your 1st line is over 2.00 it's a top line
If your 2nd line is over 1.50 it's a solid 2nd line
If your 3rd line is over 1.25 you're doing good
If your 4th line forwards are breathing . . .

Young scorers do emerge very quickly (excluding top of the draft picks):
Barzal 2.89 pp/60 - 20 year old rookie
Kucherov 2.67 - 21 year old 2nd year player
Stone 2.45 - 22, first full season as 6th rd pick
Forsberg 2.12 - 20 year old rookie
Pastrnak 2.08 - 20 year old 3rd season
Sebastian Aho 2.38 - 20 year old 2nd season
Point 2.32 - 20 year old 2nd season
TK 2.27 - 20 year old 2nd season
Larkin 2.24 - 21 year old 3rd season
Arvidsson 2.30 - 23 year old 2nd season
Connor 2.23 - 21 year old 2nd season
Scheifele 2.51 - 22 year old 3rd season
Barkov 2.31 - 20 year old 3rd season

Last year Flyers only had 10 forwards who played 640 5x5 minutes:
Giroux (2.73), TK (2.27), Couts (2.05), Voracek (1.96), Patrick (1.50), Weal (1.24), Simmonds (1.23), Laughton (1.21), Raffl (1.21), Filppula (1.10)
other:
Weise (1.04), Lindblom (1.01), Leier (0.86), Lehtera (0.75), Read (0.34)

2016-17:
Couts (1.76), Filppula (1.58), TK (1.55), Voracek (1.43), Read (1.29), Schenn (1.26), Cousins (1.23), Simmonds (1.14), VdV (1.01), Raffl (0.98), Weise (0.97), Giroux (0.94), PEB (0.53)
other:
Weal (2.89), Luby (0.86)

2015-16:
Schenn (1.95), Simmonds (1.92), Couts (1.82), Laughton (1.79), Giroux (1.72), Voracek (1.61), Raffl (1.56), Read (0.96), White (0.79), VdV (0.76), PEB (0.69)
other
Cousins (1.48), Umberger (1.46), Gagner (1.28), Vinnie (1.12)
Weal (2.89),

 

[hatcher]

Hexy will trade for roster player like O'Reilly with 4 yrs left

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

No Kovalchuk, no Tavares. How about Voynov, haha

He was asked about Voynov but couldn’t comment on him since he is still property of the Kings.

 

[Lindberg]

He didn't say GREAT player though.

Maybe that comment was in regards to Kane at 7 years and he would not be doing the same for that level a player.

Who knows.

Plus, Hextall has lied before. Why believe him now?

That sounds more to me like you're wanting to believe he is going to be interested in JT. If he said great instead of excllent and etc.

What does Hextall gain by being a liar here? Nothing at all. What it does seem like is that Hextall is going to miss the boat on some quality players.

 

[The Burdened]

while Tavares & Kovalchuk would've been nice, it's a luxury, so oh well.

however, here's hoping he's gonna go hard after a RHD and spends to get one. If he doesn't bring in a Top 4 RHD I would consider this offseason a failure.

 

[Lindberg]

We also have the option of signing a short-term fix for 3C, and waiting a year or two (the young players will signal when they're ready) for the team to hit critical mass, THEN make the big move.
Players are always available in free agency and through trades, and JT isn't "special."

4 yr leader board pp/60 (214 with 3000+ minutes)
McDavid 2.98
Kucherov 2.40
Malkin 2.36
Tarsenko 2.35
Benn 2.33
P Kane 2.32
Pastrnak 2.30
Crosby 2.27
Marchand 2.23
Stone 2.22
Tavares 2.07 (26th)
35 players averaged 2.00+ over this period, so it's a pretty good measure of top ES scoring

4 year cutoffs (800 5x5 minutes)
total # 262/237/234/231 - 241
2.50 - 17/5/5/8 - 9
2.25 - 35/21/13/21 - 23
2.00 - 70/47/41/50 - 52
1.75 - 110/98/87/95 - 98
1.50 - 169/143/139/140 - 148
1.25 - 219/195/190/191 - 199
1.00 - 246/222/214/214 - 224

If your 1st line is over 2.00 it's a top line
If your 2nd line is over 1.50 it's a solid 2nd line
If your 3rd line is over 1.25 you're doing good
If your 4th line forwards are breathing . . .

Young scorers do emerge very quickly (excluding top of the draft picks):
Barzal 2.89 pp/60 - 20 year old rookie
Kucherov 2.67 - 21 year old 2nd year player
Stone 2.45 - 22, first full season as 6th rd pick
Forsberg 2.12 - 20 year old rookie
Pastrnak 2.08 - 20 year old 3rd season
Sebastian Aho 2.38 - 20 year old 2nd season
Point 2.32 - 20 year old 2nd season
TK 2.27 - 20 year old 2nd season
Larkin 2.24 - 21 year old 3rd season
Arvidsson 2.30 - 23 year old 2nd season
Connor 2.23 - 21 year old 2nd season
Scheifele 2.51 - 22 year old 3rd season
Barkov 2.31 - 20 year old 3rd season

Last year Flyers only had 10 forwards who played 640 5x5 minutes:
Giroux (2.73), TK (2.27), Couts (2.05), Voracek (1.96), Patrick (1.50), Weal (1.24), Simmonds (1.23), Laughton (1.21), Raffl (1.21), Filppula (1.10)
other:
Weise (1.04), Lindblom (1.01), Leier (0.86), Lehtera (0.75), Read (0.34)

2016-17:
Couts (1.76), Filppula (1.58), TK (1.55), Voracek (1.43), Read (1.29), Schenn (1.26), Cousins (1.23), Simmonds (1.14), VdV (1.01), Raffl (0.98), Weise (0.97), Giroux (0.94), PEB (0.53)
other:
Weal (2.89), Luby (0.86)

2015-16:
Schenn (1.95), Simmonds (1.92), Couts (1.82), Laughton (1.79), Giroux (1.72), Voracek (1.61), Raffl (1.56), Read (0.96), White (0.79), VdV (0.76), PEB (0.69)
other
Cousins (1.48), Umberger (1.46), Gagner (1.28), Vinnie (1.12)
Weal (2.89),

You do realize JT has played on some pretty bad teams right?

 

[kudymen]

He was asked about Voynov but couldn’t comment on him since he is still property of the Kings.

Ah, thanks, I missed that

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

My belief all along has been that Hextall will be going after depth this summer with or without those comments.

 

[Young Sandwich]

There is a reasonably good chance that the sun will rise tomorrow. We will evaluate the heat, humidity, and chance of precipitation at the proper time and continue to monitor it to make the clothing decisions that are right for us now and for the future. My staff of meteorologists and I are much better assessors of weather patterns and five-day forecasts than the casual weather discusser and contributor to online meteorological discussion boards. I am confident with the different pant and short types we have in our closet and drawers, and we are watching their progress through the laundry cycle intently.

This needs to be properly appreciated. Maybe framed and placed above the entrance to the Flyers locker room? Bravo.

 

[The Burdened]

We need a Top 4 RHD in the worst way and there are a couple that will be on the market.
No excuse to not be aggressive in trying to get one.
I will be very disappointed if he fails to address this need.

 

[Lindberg]

My belief all along has been that Hextall will be going after depth this summer with or without those comments.

I have this fear that he will be re-signing Simmonds, re-signing Filppula and acquiring another marginal player. I think he places too much value on things that aren't significant (loyalty , etc.)

 

[BrindamoursNose]

See, I think this makes perfect sense and doesn't deflect from Tavares at all.

I don't want to give a 7 year deal to a good player, either.

I would give one to a great player, though.

I wonder what the rest of the quote was.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

He didn't say GREAT player though.

Maybe that comment was in regards to Kane at 7 years and he would not be doing the same for that level a player.

Who knows.

Plus, Hextall has lied before. Why believe him now?

I think that's exactly what he's saying.

Notice the volatile reactions to such a simple statement (which most likely had more to it than just that single sentence)?

 

[BernieParent]

but this, but that, do you want to win or not? yes or no? answer the question, dont give me your 10 paragrah off topic crap, it's a simple yes or no?

How on earth can you consider wanting to win a yes/no proposition? Is failure to win a Stanley Cup next season a complete organizational failure? I am 100% confident that everyone here wants to win. I am equally confident that we all have a vastly different roadmap to doing it.

Washington failed time and time again before making it this season. Guess how they got the majority of their line-up: drafting. As much as deadhead's approach is too conservative and excessively patient, your ADHD tactic fails to take into account how difficult a process it is to build up the talent base from which affordable talent can be fed into the line-up and the right big deals can be made.

The majority of your posts read like Bryan Colangelo's wife taught Paul Holmgren how to make a burner account. Going all-in at the poker table all the time very rarely is a strategy for success, and "Just do something!" won't necessarily lead to even short-term success.

I've posted my wish list, and am very interested in a grand-slam deal like Karlsson or Tavares. But not at any price.

 

[Rebels57]

Lmao I went to high school with him. That wasn’t a bet.

Well he's a sick f***. Either way, he doesn't represent a normal Philadelphia lol.

 

[Strawberry Fields]

I have less than zero interest in Jeremy Bracco. That's a brutal trade for us.

But he's a Leaf prospect, which means he's a generational, surefire future hall of famer.

 

[BernieParent]

Yeah that was a bit concerning, but then again he probably doesnt want to tell people "oh i like this guy and im going after him" because then the price goes up

Not to mention the rules against tampering.

 

[Rebels57]

See, I think this makes perfect sense and doesn't deflect from Tavares at all.

I don't want to give a 7 year deal to a good player, either.

I would give one to a great player, though.

I wonder what the rest of the quote was.

I'm all for Hextall keeping his plans close to the chest, but you also don't have to bend over backwards to stretch his words into something they are not either.

 

[BernieParent]

Fantasy trade
NHL Mock Draft 2018: Flyers make a trade with the Maple Leafs

Decent return and very good explanation.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Unsurprisingly, Hextall has no intentions of acquiring an impact player. Time to put that Tavares, Carlson, or Karlsson conversations to bed and slide back into our corner of the sandbox; the bargain bin.

Eh, you have to take everything these guys say with a grain of salt. I would wager that all GMs would give similar responses. That's not to say that he has a secret plan to get him, but whether he is talking about trades, UFAs, or young players, his words have little value. No GM is going to come out and say they are going to pursue any particular UFA (I'm not even sure if they are allowed to TBH). They all downplay it in public.

I don't remember but was Homer ever asked about Suter, Parise, etc. and other guys he went after and didn't sign? I would bet he said something non-committal.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

We also have the option of signing a short-term fix for 3C, and waiting a year or two (the young players will signal when they're ready) for the team to hit critical mass

And that Middle 6C doesn’t have to be cheap. He would get killed for it and I’m not sure there isn’t internal league pressure specifically not to start deals of such a structure, but offering someone like Stastny 2/20 makes a ton of sense if they want a quality vet.

 

[Rebels57]

My final guess on free agency:

We sign Bozak to a 2 year, $10 million deal and we sign a 7th defensemen to a 1 year deal (that ends up playing over a young dmen when the D is healthy because Hak).

That's gonna be all she wrote.

 

[FlyTimmo]