2018 off-season thread

[bobbythebrain]

I think we will have to pay more to keep Ivan on the longest possible deal. I think 8 might be very possible.

Unless a train hits him, next year will only raise his stock. Hextall would be best suited extending him ASAP or else that contract will keep inflating throughout the season.

 

[duffy9748]

Ok, so you're moving Sanheim. That helps the crunch a bit.

But like I said, you can make it work for 2019-20. 2020-21 is where you have problems. You've taken the expiring dead weight that would help offset the Patrick/Myers/Lindblom raises. You do have room to play with, but enough?

I also have a lot of issues with that putting that much on Myers right now, but I know I'm going to be largely alone. Minus him, you basically have 3 excellent Defensemen and 3 guys who might not even be NHLers in an ideal world with nothing left behind them. ELC cycling is going to be a must if you add multiple huge salaries.

Don’t read into the lines so much. I just threw them together. You need one of Myers/Morin to turn into a top 4 defender in the next 2 years and you’re golden.

I didn’t factor in any Simmonds trade either. Move him for a cost controlled 3rd liner and a pick at the draft.

 

[duffy9748]

Ok, so you're moving Sanheim. That helps the crunch a bit.

But like I said, you can make it work for 2019-20. 2020-21 is where you have problems. You've taken the expiring dead weight that would help offset the Patrick/Myers/Lindblom raises. You do have room to play with, but enough?

I also have a lot of issues with that putting that much on Myers right now, but I know I'm going to be largely alone. Minus him, you basically have 3 excellent Defensemen and 3 guys who might not even be NHLers in an ideal world with nothing left behind them. ELC cycling is going to be a must if you add multiple huge salaries.

Also, there’s more money to play with then I left. Hagg won’t be making 2.5. Morin won’t be making 1.75. The cap should be higher than 80.

 

[Flyerfan13]

Free agency focus: Philadelphia Flyers

 

[duffy9748]

Ok, so you're moving Sanheim. That helps the crunch a bit.

But like I said, you can make it work for 2019-20. 2020-21 is where you have problems. You've taken the expiring dead weight that would help offset the Patrick/Myers/Lindblom raises. You do have room to play with, but enough?

I also have a lot of issues with that putting that much on Myers right now, but I know I'm going to be largely alone. Minus him, you basically have 3 excellent Defensemen and 3 guys who might not even be NHLers in an ideal world with nothing left behind them. ELC cycling is going to be a must if you add multiple huge salaries.

You need 1 of Morin/Myers to hit. Look at that D-core compared to what Vegas and Washington just iced during the finals...

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Also, there’s more money to play with then I left. Hagg won’t be making 2.5. Morin won’t be making 1.75. The cap should be higher than 80.

Yeah, I was assuming an 85 MM cap and 2 per on Hagg. That's still only going to put you at about 10 MM for Patrick, Lindblom (paired with likely Tavares or Patrick), and a Myers (paired with likely Gostisbehere or Provorov). That's more than tight and you have to have Goalies on ELCs. Then you have to dump one of your top 4 (G, V, K, T) salaries or churn the Hart/Frost/Ratcliffe/etc generation.

You need 1 of Morin/Myers to hit. Look at that D-core compared to what Vegas and Washington just iced during the finals...

Yep. Need. Otherwise you're completely and utterly boned. And you still have boat anchor Hagg around.

 

[The Madrigal]

Free agency focus: Philadelphia Flyers

Approximately 22 million in cap space for the Flyers this summer according to this article. That doesn't even take into that Wayne Simmonds and his 3.9 million could come off the books this summer or next, or that Jori Lehtera's 4.7 million cap hit will come off the books next summer. Cap space is not an issue at all for the Flyers and they can and should actually start to use some of it.

 

[The Madrigal]

20.75 million comes off of the Flyers cap next summer. That should leave them enough money to re-sign Provorov (7-8 aav) and TK (4-5 aav) and still give them a surplus of 7-9 million, and that is all in addition to the high amount of cap space they will have this summer. Not only that the following year they will get another 10.7 million in cap space when MacDonald, Gudas, and Weise come off the books.

 

[baudib1]

I'm down for 1 of Karlsson/Tavares but not both.

Not sure who I'd prefer. I could see Tavares being a bigger upgrade for the Flyers (even though Karlsson is a better player), since he essentially replaces Filppula and just moves Patrick down to 3C. With Ghost, the Flyers don't exactly have a gaping hole at PP1 D but really, you just put Karlsson in Ghost's spot and put Ghost in Voracek's spot (IMO).

 

[Psuhockey]

Is no one else afraid EK might be a prime candidate to breakdown physically? He is a small framed guy and will be 29 when the new contract starts. I'm not an expert on his injury history, but he definitely had that horrible ankle injury where they removed a large portion of his bone.

I'm no doctor but giving a player of that profile an 11 million dollar contract for 8 years sounds scary. Maybe a doctor would say otherwise and he profiles out fine. I don't know.

But when you have to give up the primetime assets and names that are getting thrown around here I get pretty nervous. My intuition tells me it's not worth the risk. Giving up Ghost or Sanheim + 1st round picks is no joke.

I also would be worried about his long term injury risk. I would do the big deal for Doughty because I think he would hold up better but it looks like he is going to resign in LA.

 

[NicolasAubeKubel]

20.75 million comes off of the Flyers cap next summer. That should leave them enough money to re-sign Provorov (7-8 aav) and TK (4-5 aav) and still give them a surplus of 7-9 million, and that is all in addition to the high amount of cap space they will have this summer. Not only that the following year they will get another 10.7 million in cap space when MacDonald, Gudas, and Weise come off the books.

But we need to start gearing up for that Wade Allison extension. 8x8 minimum!!!!!! And what about Wade Allison’s child? That’s another 6 million AAV. You don’t just waste cap space on guys like Tavares and Karlsson!!

 

[The Madrigal]

But we need to start gearing up for that Wade Allison extension. 8x8 minimum!!!!!! And what about Wade Allison’s child? That’s another 6 million AAV. You don’t just waste cap space on guys like Tavares and Karlsson!!

Notice how there was crickets in here when I showed how much cap space the Flyers have this summer and how much more they will gain over the next two years.

 

[Peacekeeper]

Notice how there was crickets in here when I showed how much cap space the Flyers have this summer and how much more they will gain over the next two years.

And you didn't mention even more space due to the rising cap

 

[hatcher]

You need 1 of Morin/Myers to hit. Look at that D-core compared to what Vegas and Washington just iced during the finals...

We're not even close in game play to those d.

 

[Prongo]

Reading the main boards about Hoffman reminds me to never ever believe human beings will do the right thing.

 

[The Madrigal]

And you didn't mention even more space due to the rising cap

True. So the Flyers will have about 20 million in cap space this summer and have another 21 million free next summer.

41 million - 7 million for Provorov=
34 million

34 million - 5 million for Konecny=
29 million

The only other significant RFA or UFA they will have this summer or next is Sanheim who shouldnt get a huge raise. They will also need two goalies which shouldnt cost more than around 5 million considering one of them will likely be a young guy.

Im not suggesting they should shoot their wad on free agents but they can easily afford one big time player and a couple of decent guys. Hextall would be foolish not to add to the team this summer and there are no more excuses left.

 

[Peacekeeper]

True. So the Flyers will have about 20 million in cap space this summer and have another 21 million free next summer.

41 million - 7 million for Provorov=
34 million

34 million - 5 million for Konecny=
29 million

The only other significant RFA or UFA they will have this summer or next is Sanheim who shouldnt get a huge raise. They will also need two goalies which shouldnt cost more than around 5 million considering one of them will likely be a young guy.

Im not suggesting they should shoot their wad on free agents but they can easily afford one big time player and a couple of decent guys. Hextall would be foolish not to add to the team this summer and there are no more excuses left.

I mean a Flyers team not spending close to the cap is odd

That's some Arz cap space lol

 

[The Madrigal]

I mean a Flyers team not spending close to the cap is odd

That's some Arz cap space lol

Yep, thats why despite what the apologists say and my disbelief in Hextall he almost has to do some things this summer with the amount of cap space they will have. They will be barely over the floor by next summer if they dont.

 

[Peacekeeper]

Yep, thats why despite what the apologists say and my disbelief in Hextall he almost has to do some things this summer with the amount of cap space they will have. They will be barely over the floor by next summer if they dont.

Let's hope

I guess it's a good thing.. but a bit frustrating to us fans how hush hush Hextal is.. he could be working the phones like a mad man and we'll never know and assume he's doing nothing if he can't strike a deal

 

[The Burdened]

hmmm yeah I didn't realize how much cap space we will actually have within the next few years.

Even when you figure in the extensions for Provorov, TK & Patrick there will still be a significant amount of money to play with. Even if we extend Wayne, that's likely gonna only cost an additional 1.5 million
There will be plenty of room in the budget to add another big ticket if the opportunity arises.

 

[deadhead]

The problem isn't the next couple years, it's in 2020-21 onward when you have RFA contracts for Provorov, TK, Patrick, Lindblom, Sanheim, Myers.
That could be $30+M between them.

There will be top players/free agents available every summer, question is when do you pull the trigger and for whom.
If Karlsson was the free agent instead of JT, he might be a target for Ron.
But since he may be available next summer, he might just wait and see.

Waiting another year or two has real advantages for the Flyers:
1) Hart is closer to starting, they'll have a better idea about Sandstrom and Ustimenko as well
2) Prospects will have better track records, which both tells Ron where his holes are and increases their trade value
3) The team will have a better record, worse draft position, which makes it easier to trade 1st rd picks

It's not like JT or Karlsson will make us a Cup contender, they haven't made their current teams, they won't do that here - this isn't the NBA. You need a hockey team, heck, Pittsburgh could only get to the conference finals once in six years despite having Crosby, Malkin, Fleury and Letang in their prime years.

So until the kids have a couple more years under their belts, overpaying for free agents will just close the window on the back end without shoving it open on the front end.

 

[Curufinwe]

I think the Flyers cap situation will be fine until the Couturier/Ghost deals are up. And that's four/five years away. In the meantime, Hextall should be using the abundant cap space to improve the team.

 

[Tripod]

Notice how there was crickets in here when I showed how much cap space the Flyers have this summer and how much more they will gain over the next two years.

In fairness, look at the time you posted. Many people, like myself, were asleep.

I have not changed my belief that we are playoff tweeners and that we are still a few years away from being contenders. But making a move for JT or EK....or both even certainly gives us an uptick.

Going after either of these 2 guys is not a "now" move....it's a now AND the future move. Those are the moves we absolutely should be looking into. It you wait and say "naw, we are still 2 years away" guys like that might not be available in 2 years.

What going after JT DOES do, is gives you that free asset and also makes trading Frost if need be, a lot easier to swallow because the C is set for at least 4 years.

I just hope that if/when we don't get either guy, people don't freak out(but they will) and go off on Hextall. It takes 2 sides to do a deal and we have no idea what those other teams/players want.

Just remember, we have the ability to after these 2 guys because of Hextall gathering all the assets and clearing all the cap space. Should be a fun few weeks watching what happens!

 

[tucson83]

The problem isn't the next couple years, it's in 2020-21 onward when you have RFA contracts for Provorov, TK, Patrick, Lindblom, Sanheim, Myers.
That could be $30+M between them.

There will be top players/free agents available every summer, question is when do you pull the trigger and for whom.
If Karlsson was the free agent instead of JT, he might be a target for Ron.
But since he may be available next summer, he might just wait and see.

Waiting another year or two has real advantages for the Flyers:
1) Hart is closer to starting, they'll have a better idea about Sandstrom and Ustimenko as well
2) Prospects will have better track records, which both tells Ron where his holes are and increases their trade value
3) The team will have a better record, worse draft position, which makes it easier to trade 1st rd picks

It's not like JT or Karlsson will make us a Cup contender, they haven't made their current teams, they won't do that here - this isn't the NBA. You need a hockey team, heck, Pittsburgh could only get to the conference finals once in six years despite having Crosby, Malkin, Fleury and Letang in their prime years.

So until the kids have a couple more years under their belts, overpaying for free agents will just close the window on the back end without shoving it open on the front end.

so what if hextall overpay on free agents, gets Jt and karlson wins the stanley cup, are you going to quit rooting for this team? because you want all prospect team?

 

[deadhead]

I think Hextall plans to use that cap room, but not on 7-8 year free agent deals.
I'm sure he has a spreadsheet with anticipated RFA deals, contract expiration, etc.
And he looks at every potential FA and trade in that context, how will they fit in, when will they push me up against the Cap.
He doesn't want to return to 2014-15 again, when he was trying to figure out how to dump Vinnie et al to get enough cap room.
And if a FA deal requires a NMC clause, don't call me, I'll call you.

Fans want to win now because they won't be held accountable in three years for the mistakes made in pursuing instant gratification.
Ron has a story, and he's sticking to it.

Right now the optimal acquisition has a 3 year deal or shorter, and a short-term overpay is preferable to dead money in the 2020s.
The worst deal is a signing/trade of a player close to 30 who will garner a long-term, high cost extension until he's 36.
So you'd get 3-4 good years, then the player will be 33 in 2022-23, paid for his peak value when his production will fall off for 4 more contract years.